Phil Bonello
@PhilJBonello
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@plaintext_cap Prev: @grayscale , @ikigai_fund , @messaricrypto . ~nidber-filbur Opinions are my own. Not investment advice.
Denver, CO
Joined October 2011
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This is a big deal. The prisoner's dilemma between nations is heating up.
Iran Licenses $7.3 Million Bitcoin Mining Enterprise, Move Aimed at Easing U.S. Sanctions
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ETH! We
@Grayscale
are frequently asked how to think about the investment case and valuation framework for $ETH. Today seems like a great day to share our framework!
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Bought a couch. Waited three months for it. Company filed for chapter 11. Now I'm a creditor. Didn't expect to get rugged by my furniture company.
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"I also made the case for owning Bitcoin, the quintessence of scarcity premium. It is literally the only large tradeable asset in the world that has a known fixed maximum supply." - Paul Tudor Jones
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“He turned his hedge fund firm into a family office last year after assets dropped to about $9 billion in 2019 from a peak of $38 billion in 2011 and he found himself managing mostly his own money.” … down 76% in 8 years. Not bad
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Who else pisses off their significant other by talking Bitcoin for 15 minutes when meeting new friends?
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I just published "The Sovereign Individual" Investment Thesis. It is heavily influenced by...The Sovereign Individual. Key themes below:
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If you don’t own Bitcoin you should have a good reason why
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Bitcoiners in 2016: "ICOs won't work. We have evidence."
Ethereum community: "You hate experimentation"
Ethereum community in 2019: "IEOs won't work. We have evidence."
Binance: "Hold my beer"
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This SOL vs ETH angst is a mirror image of ETH vs BTC in 2018-19.
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We just published a piece on how
@opentensor
is pushing the future of decentralized AI. It's important that the foundation of AI is built on an open protocol.
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- maybe a 20% chance BTC drops to $52k
- Inflation is the boogie man, war, Yen is breaking, etc
- fiscal spending is only going in one direction
- alts have already dropped 50%+ in many cases and have retested supports
- ETF flows are shit, but BTC is absorbing it well, and they
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Will say it again...
In 6-12 months Bittensor is likely to be the most used crypto network in the world.
Corcel chat from Subnet 18 achieved 60,000 users in its first 24 hours 🔥
Try it yourself 👉
Big congrats to
@mogmachine
and his team!
$TAO
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The crux of discontent here seems to be that Bittensor doesn't own the "AI functionality" - that's literally the point of Bittensor. It provides the protocol for incentivizing digital commodities, one of which is AI inference.
Bittensor is generalizable and in many ways simple;
*Somewhat long tweet covering my opinions on $TAO*
Lot of impressively bullish sentiment surrounding Bittensor but there's very little actual info as to what they do. Everything within their docs is centered around the benefits of a decentralized and open source AI ecosystem,
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In 6-12 months Bittensor is likely to be the most used crypto network in the world.
Up 2x now roughly, high conviction a 5-10x from here is still possible
In full fledged bull market this will go to 10-20bn
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COIN is pretty clearly mispriced given what's happening in crypto right now. Wall Street asleep
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Ideas inspired by The Sovereign Individual are becoming reality faster than expected.
- cheap online education
- remote work
- decreased return on physical location
- escape from fiat through digital money
- dissident tech
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I just published The Many Angles of Bitcoin Adoption.
#Bitcoin
is taking over global mindshare and that process is self-fulfilling, reflexive. It's... very bullish.
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Large cap that’s being slept on right now: $NYC
- 8 million people
- best bars, clubs, and restaurants in the world
- society on the verge of freedom
Send it
Just moved to the city. Let me know if you want meet up
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What a change in dialogue. It's all reflexive. Hugely bullish. 🐂🐂
"In a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In a world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor."
🔥🔥🔥🔥
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Bittensor is quickly turning into an application ecosystem where it’ll be nearly impossible to keep up with new projects in the same way it was difficult to follow the explosion of apps on Ethereum.
Starting from tomorrow, FirstTensor Validator will reward its $TAO delegators with Bitneuron tokens.
Bitneuron represents the native token of the BrainTensor API. The tokens are generated for free by FirstTensor delegators and FT Neuron holders, incentivizing people to support
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If the ETH ETF gets approved it’ll be a bigger signal than the BTC ETF
1) ETH isn’t BTC - BTC was viewed as a potential exception and nothing else would get a product. ETH would open the path to a ton of other crypto ETFs.
2) It would signal a major political turning point for
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A lot of Bittensor critiques remind me of the early Ethereum days when people said trading would never take off while pointing to IDEX and Etherdelta. Then Uniswap popularized the AMM model. Open protocols incentivize creative solutions. Don't bet against creativity.
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Bittensor is an AI project in the same way that Ethereum is a DeFi project. AI use cases will be the biggest driver of Bittensor's success but it's a generalizable incentive protocol. It's up to the subnets to create viable use cases.
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One of the better things I’ve listened to lately is the
@Delphi_Digital
podcast with
@mcuban
. He’s really gotten his hands dirty in defi and nfts. 62, worth a few bill and grinding to understand the paradigm shift in a way very few do.
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turns out all we have to do is sell if the administration puts out a warning about the cpi print and buy if they stay silent
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Why would we ever need Bittensor?
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We just released our podcast with
@shibshib89
, cofounder of Bittensor. We dive into Bittensor's value proposition, the economics of the network, and how to attract top AI talent to the project. As big Bittensor fans, this was a fun one.
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you want to see btc and eth leading really hard as an indication of new capital. if it's alts, it's just more pvp imo
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The setup right now is so absurdly bullish. It seems too obvious, which is my only concern.
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Subnets on Bittensor are hard to build well. Validating output and properly rewarding stakeholders is non-trivial. There will be a ton of churn in the first year. But the top subnets will each be valued in the tens of billions.
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I just published "Valuing Productive Cryptoassets" - Thanks to
@danzuller
,
@Obstropolos
, and
@burandt_josh
for feedback on the piece. Looking forward to continued iteration on valuation classification.
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If you're building on Bittensor and raising, please reach out. Would love to talk.
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Global net liquidity trending sharply upwards. When liquidity is declining, crypto is among the worst performers. But when increasing... well it's the fastest horse
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AI x crypto
Compute
Storage
Inference
Applications/Autonomous agents
The market is sleeping on the impact of autonomous agents in crypto. We'll have more autonomous agents/services than human users in a year's time. There are already great working products.
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Excited to share our overview of Amoveo, a blockchain that facilitates scalable P2P derivatives - some healthy competition for
@AugurProject
. Over the past year we've been extremely impressed by the speed of innovation by
@zack_bitcoin
and the community.
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Yesterday was my last day at
@Grayscale
. A huge thank you to
@BarrySilbert
and
@Sonnenshein
for the opportunity to work at a world class organization and one of the fastest growing asset managers. DCG and Grayscale are pioneers, and I can't wait to see what comes next!
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Still think people are sleeping on Sanko. Cultural hub for crypto.
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The hate for btc right now is exceptional. Both on a general fud scale and relative to other crypto.
-“no cash flow”
-“dirty energy”
-“boomer coin”
-“Eth flippening”
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Huge COVID proposal. Highlights:
- $2k/month for adults
- suspend all credit payments
- ban all evictions & foreclosures
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We might be in a post 2000 tech bubble period for crypto. Wildly inflated expectations in 2021 now met with disillusionment at the pace of progress despite being much closer to breakout use cases. What this means:
- crypto will still follow liquidity cycles which have
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Today is my last day full-time at
@Ikigai_fund
– it’s been an amazing adventure. Thanks to
@Travis_Kling
and
@Anthony_Emtman
for the opportunity to help build the business this past year. I'll be moving to an advisory role with Ikigai and taking time off to evaluate what’s next!
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The new Bittensor documentation is great
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Calendly?
You're telling the CEO of IOHK, founder of Cardano and Ethereum to use Calendly?
‘Calendly’ Etiquette is The Most Raw / Naked Display of Social Capital Dynamics in Business.
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Given the current banking crisis, many are discovering that BTC and ETH are the best assets to hold to eliminate counterparty risk. Better to stomach some market volatility in favor of complete ownership.
A clear case where volatility != risk
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If Ethereum plays its cards right, it could probably be a really nice Bitcoin "sidechain"
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Regardless of whether any existing crypto will or will not succeed, a small group has realized the promise of non-sovereign digital money and has become intolerant to any other option.
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Why would we ever need Bittensor when we have OpenAI?
we are pausing new ChatGPT Plus sign-ups for a bit :(
the surge in usage post devday has exceeded our capacity and we want to make sure everyone has a great experience.
you can still sign-up to be notified within the app when subs reopen.
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During the civil war speculators realized that the government had to print money to fund operations. The stock market rose and gold became the benchmark. Sound familiar?
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People had a tough time understanding the value of Ethereum before seeing Uniswap and Compound. Similarly, people are struggling to understand TAO because they’re not looking at subnets. Look at the applications to understand the protocol.
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all this bitcoin fud is getting me excited for what's to come
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While parts of this are valid, each subnet is distinct. It’s like shitting on a garbage Ethereum app and as a result dismissing the whole network.
The uselessness of $TAO is truly spectacular
$10 billion marketcap for an "AI coin"
Go check it out—what does it actually do?
It runs a bunch of different subnets. Okay? What are these subnets? Check out subnet
#1
.
Okay, so text prompting. Cool. That's easy enough to
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Bittensor is just a battleground for the best output. May the best man win, and that includes OpenAI.
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Massive
Today we are announcing our latest project, an effort to provide a new evaluation system for open source models. Traditional benchmarking leans heavily on public datasets which can be easy to game and often lead to superficial score improvements that mask true model capabilities
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Had a blast with
@smoovie420
talking about
@SankoGameCorp
. If you're old enough, you might remember Sanko rising as a gaming giant alongside Sega and Nintendo in the 1980's... or maybe you don't since that actually didn't happen. But could you imagine if it did? Crypto should be
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Everyone that could be broken, has been. There is nobody left to sell and no margin left to liquidate. The risk/reward has not been this attractive in four years. It's not easy, but right now it pays to be an optimist among pessimists.
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Subnets and apps are powering up
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Grayscale court decision could come at any time. Clock is now ticking. Decision expected between 3-6 months after oral arguments which were on March 7th.
Blackrock could get a decision on an ETF as soon as August 13, 45 days after registration which will be June 29th.
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We had crazy funding a week ago, but it quickly subsided and now we're 2% from ATH. Things are again frothy but it's still wildly difficult to pick local tops here. Not doing too much.
It’s wildly difficult to pick local tops when momentum is like this, no matter what funding is showing. Better to have conviction and watch the market play out.
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Three days away from one of the most bullish BTC catalysts in its history and the derivative market looks like this.
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Been losing money this year but damn have I learned a lot.
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Check out our first podcast with the founder of
@autonolas
,
@david_enim
. We get into the weeds on how Autonolas is building the future of AI agents.
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i hate seeing ohm holders get crushed and the generally bad hindsight dunks on ct
never been an ohmie but the dao pioneered a lot of the interprotocol economic activity that's commonplace now. easy to call it a ponzi but a lot of crypto looks like a ponzi until it isnt
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This is such a great chart by
@Old_Samster
. Bittensor is a gravitational pull for every part of the AI stack.
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Is TAO done? Doubt it
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gold sending, fed easing, china stimming, BTC ranging for 7 months, positioning bearish
/end rant
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Just read
@Blockstream
's overview of Bulletproofs. Pretty awesome. Open source crypto networks are evolving organisms. Long term perspective is important.
#bitcoin
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In this report we looked to demystify Bitcoin’s value for investors who aren’t necessarily in the trenches everyday. Moral of the story here... there’s growing demand and very limited supply.
Investors are searching for ways to protect against an ever-expanding monetary supply. With
#Bitcoin
's unique qualities -- verifiable scarcity + supply that can’t be controlled by a central authority -- $BTC may be leveraged as a store of value. More via:
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cultural hub
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This is a fantastic talk on Bittensor.
@mogmachine
makes a great point: Bittensor is well suited to provide any digital commodity (storage, compute, etc) because it started with the most difficult, subjective one, intelligence.
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Excited to share our podcast with
@KeithSingery
, Bittensor Guru. Keith brought the energy for this one. He provided amazing insight into how Bittensor has changed over the years and what still needs to be improved. Very well-rounded perspective.
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Glad to see a new crop of haters and (recycled) FUD. Was getting worried Bitcoin was the consensus trade for a second.
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This is the same talking point that Bitcoiners transitioned to 5 years ago.
@blknoiz06
Yes it’s escactly this. Ethereum L1 is a B2B chain. It’s not meant to serve individual users.
It’s a hub for many chains which are free to customize themselves to be best for the userbase they want to serve.
That’s why comparing it to a B2C chain is apples to oranges.
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This has been a hated rally. Market seems underweight BTC.
- Perps consistently trading at a discount (high funding/borrow rates)
- Futures in backwardation
- OBV signaling serious accumulation on CB compared to Bitmex
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@blknoiz06
people forget that everyone was a bitcoin maxi in 2019 and didn't see how ethereum would ever find a use case. then defi happened
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At-scale, public prediction markets have historically struggled in part due to liquidity.
@taoshiio
has $30mm of rewards to distribute this year and that’s likely to increase a lot. Talent is going to be pouring into the subnet
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Thread on a few on-chain Bitcoin charts. Data sourced from
@coinmetrics
.
To start September, there was a spike in older revived supply - coins that had not moved in a long time. Note the spike in March for comparison.
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I don't know what the fix is for token issuance. Teams still need money for development, and investors need to be compensated for their investments. Some models that seem solid of late:
-
@MorpheusAIs
- Transparent bootstrapping period for all investors to contribute capital.
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This is a great listen to understand how subnets are being built out on
@opentensor
.
@0xarrash
and
@taoshiio
are building the largest incentive pool for predictions in the world. And this is the one subnet on Bittensor.
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Current thoughts on the market:
- BTC bottom is in
- soft landing is a pipe dream (absent fiscal stimmy)
- BTC will revisit $20k in 2023 before going much higher in 2024
- the halving isn't priced in - supply shock
- spot ETFs aren't priced in - demand shock
- ETH/BTC will trend
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