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Dr. Green and White
@PaulFanson
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I love math, college sports, and I like to write about both. Staff writer, Chief Data Scientist & Optimism Officer for Spartans Illustrated. @SpartansRivals
Michigan, USA
Joined May 2011
This is part two (of two) of my annual simulation-based analysis of the Big Ten basketball race. I break down MSU's schedule, forecast the total number of wins, predict BTT seeding, I even know the odds and most likely record needed to hang a banner. Check it out:.
Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) concludes his #math-based analysis of the Big Ten race as an early Xmas gift for subscribers. How many Big Ten games will MSU win? What are the odds to hang a regular season and/or BTT banner? It's all here:.
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On Sunday, MSU fans should root for:. Nebraska (+9) to upset Iowa.Purdue (-8) to beat Illinois.Penn State (+1) to beat Maryland.Rutgers (-4) to beat Northwestern. 4/4 => MSU is the No. 3 seed.3/4 => No. 4 seed.2/4 => No. 5 seed.1/4 => No. 6 seed.0/4 => No. 7 seed. #math.
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This tweet got me thinking. what is MSU's record vs. Top 3 seeds since 2001? It turns out that it is:. 11-10 (52%). As for other Big Ten notables:. Wisconsin = 5-7 (42%).Ohio State = 3-4 (43%).Michigan = 3-6 (33%).Indiana = 2-6 (25%).Illinois = 1-6 (14%).Purdue = 1-9 (10%).
Gonzaga is 1-12 vs seed 3 or higher since 2001?. Keep telling me the WCC gets them ready for the tourney though.
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One does not get to claim "sweet revenge" when one there is "uncontroverted" evidence of an "unprecedented" cheating scheme that threatened the "integrity of competition." (Note language very similar to the definition of Level I NCAA violations). Villains don't get revenge.
Michigan football is one win away from some sweet revenge after how the Big Ten commissioner handled the Jim Harbaugh suspension. 🏆
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For a little additional context and data:. Top 10 wins since 1950.UofM: 58.MSU: 50. Top 10 wins since 2000.MSU: 14.UofM: 10. Top 5 wins since 1950.MSU: 23.UofM: 21. Top 5 wins since 2000.MSU: 7.UofM: 2.
With its win against Georgia, Alabama tied Notre Dame for most all-time wins against AP Top 10 opponents. Alabama 80.Notre Dame 80.USC 78.Oklahoma 77.Michigan 70.Ohio State 69.Texas 66.LSU 64.Florida 60.Auburn 58.Florida State 51.Miami 51.Michigan State 51.
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If anyone out there is confused as to why nothing was done and nothing was public about Mel Tucker until early this morning, it was because MSU was conducting .confidential investigation, by the book. This thread has the details about how Title IX investigations work.
This is what people are missing when they say that Haller has known about this for months. Title IX investigations are kept extremely confidential. People can lose their jobs if they leak information. Haller most likely learned the graphic details from the USA Today article today.
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As I have said before, Michigan’s most serious rival isn’t Ohio State or MSU, it’s reality.
Now-former #Michigan WR Nico Collins asserts that the supposed talent gap between the Wolverines and Ohio State is a myth. "I feel like it’s pretty much equal or we pretty much have more than them." MORE:
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Things that are true about the Big Ten race:. 1. MSU has played the easiest schedule so far.2. Purdue has played the second easiest schedule so far.3. MSU has the best Strength of Resume in Big Ten play by over 1 game (+3.33).4. MSU leads the field by 1.5 games.
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Big Ten Tournament Final Results from the Parallel Universe. No 2. seed Michigan State defeats No. 9 seed Michigan 79-60. Like the game at Breslin, MSU dominated. For the 2nd straight year, MSU beats UofM to claim the Big Ten Tournament crown. @TheOnlyColors .#ParallelUniversity.
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Friday's Results from the Parallel Universe BTT:. 9-Michigan: 70.1-Wisconsin: 64. 4-Illinois: 77.12-Minnesota: 57. 2-Michigan State: 70.7-Ohio State: 66. 3-Maryland: 77.11-Indiana: 59. This sets at some interesting match-us later today. @TheOnlyColors.
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Dear Texas, UCLA, and Alabama:. If you think that this is fun, try playing a team like this twice a week for over two months. Signed,. The Big Ten Conference. #MarchMadness.
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Michigan fans in 2018:. "Injuries are no excuse.".
Gattis says Michigan hasn’t had a single practice with 11 healthy offensive starters all season, even dating back to the spring. @WolverineLounge.
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Dear @Johnubacon .Last summer, we talked briefly here about concerns that I had over the data you presented about the academics of the UofM football team in your book Overtime. I promised to conduct some research and to get back to you. I have concluded my investigation (thread).
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Cool stat. Here is what you get if you count wins over teams seeded No. 6 or better since 2013:. Kentucky: 8.Villanova: 8.UNC: 7.MSU: 7.Wisconsin: 7.UofM: 6.Duke: 5.Gonzaga: 5.Syracuse: 5.
NCAA #MarchMadness Blue Bloods in wins since 2013: Michigan 19, Kentucky-North Carolina-Duke-Gonzaga 18 apiece. #GoBlue #B1G Gonzaga, Wolverines vying to become only schools with 4 consecutive Sweet 16s.
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Every day brings a new embarrassing and hilarious new angle to this story. Michigan* is now clearly crying to actual lawmakers to save them. They literally have no shame to go along with their complete lack of ethics, sportsmanship, or intelligence.
Eleven Michigan lawmakers have sent a letter to the Big Ten urging commissioner Tony Petitti to "act prudently and refrain from taking any premature measures against one of our state universities, including their athletic program, football team or coaching staff."
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Greg Kampe: national treasure. Seriously, he might just be the coolest head coach in America. Prove me wrong.
I am dead 💀 @KampeOU is working the drive thru at the McDonald’s on the corner of Walton and Adams. A portion of shamrock shake sales goes to the @RMHC. As you can imagine, he’s cracking all the jokes to customers, but also giving away free tickets to Thursday’s game.
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MSU fans can look forward on Saturday to watching either K-State roll FAU by 30 and thinking "that could be us" or watching K-State commit 25 turnovers and shoot 25% from the field and thinking "where the hell was that on Thursday night." It should be fun. #MarchMadness.
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I have been skeptical that the NCAA or Big Ten would actually act, but this just gets worse for Big Blue by the hour. It looks like there is overwhelming evidence that Michigan willfully and obviously broke several NCAA rules and then lied about it. Wow. Just wow.
"Among the pieces of evidence the outside law firm presented was a detailed schedule of Michigan’s planned sign-stealing travel for the rest of this season, which games Michigan scouts would attend, and how much money was budgeted for travel and tickets."
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Really nice analysis on why, once again, the talking points coming out of Ann Arbor are deeply flawed, if not blatantly false. Michigan broke rules to gain a competitive advantage like nothing seen before in college football. That is FACT. It is time to accept the consequences.
After reviewing the recent opinion piece by @DanWetzel titled, "Either everyone's guilty, or no one is," I believe Dan got a few things wrong that I would like to address:. 1. "In the end, they both stole, or participated in the stealing of, the same thing — information on
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I have been saying for a while that not playing Minnesota probably didn't matter. I reran the numbers this morning, and as things have played out. I was wrong. There is a really good chance that MSU will miss out on a double bye without that win.
A week ago it appeared that not rescheduling the Minnesota game would have little impact on Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament seed. With all of the upsets in the past few days, that has now changed. Check out @PaulFanson's exclusive break down here:.
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Coach Izzo now has 16 upsets win the NCAA Tournament, breaking a tie with the now retired Jim Boeheim. The next closest active coach is Bruce Pearl with nine. #MSU #MarchMadness.
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While it would certainly be better if MSU were ranked, it honestly doesn't matter. at all. Here is what does matter: MSU is ranked No. 20 overall in Kenpom and more critically No. 7 on defense. Kenpom is predictive of future performance and MSU's offense will improve.
Michigan State is unranked in this week's AP poll. From No. 4 to unranked in three weeks after a 3-3 start.
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