Martin Schmalz🧘
@OxfordFrom
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Finance/Economics/Real Estate Prof @OxfordSBS On Leave as Chief Economist @PCAOB_news Personal views, not necessarily the board's, board members', or staff's.
Oxford, England
Joined October 2018
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Pinned Tweet
My new title features an Oxford comma. I have nothing left to achieve.
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Advice for PhD students: plot your data in various ways before you start working on it
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I was thinking of a better illustration of the reduced-form vs structural divide in economics and finance than in this picture.
Here's a more serious attempt: (1/n)
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In cases you wondered why people are upset. (Or, well 99% of them.)
And why people find work on macro/labor/market power so appealing these days.
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I interviewed 100
#economics
journal editors (Top 5 econ / Top 3
#finance
) -- each one with 30+ publications and 10,000+ citations -- and asked them for the secrets of their success.
Here is what they said: 🧵
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The people on LinkedIn think becoming department head is a promotion.
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Why is it that mostly white & high SES kids (and foreigners) study for a PhD in economics?
I have a strong prior: who else with strong maths/engineering/computer science skills can afford to choose academia over much higher-paying industry jobs?
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Economists being constantly surprised at how good economists are at erecting entry barriers to their profession.
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Cash transfers help more than psychotherapy
Very interesting paper by
@jhaushofer
Mudida and Shapiro
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Some advice by a tech executive on how to avoid a competitive atmosphere in your industry
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Dear job market candidates (and all): please have an answer to the question "what drives the variation on the right-hand-side of your regression".
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(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?
is now available online
@JofFinance
Here is the main figure: CBs are *much* more likely to report small profits than small losses. So they care.
But why?
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GPT4: writes your code.
GPT5: passes Turing test.
GPT6: can do expense reports using Concur.
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"Here's your office. Your job is to become famous in the next 5 years. Don't go to faculty meetings -- those are for fights among seniors. Let me know if you need anything. Good luck. Have a great day."
What are the best employee onboarding practices that you've ever experienced or seen? More detail the better!
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Today I reviewed a paper for the first time and recommended that it be published as is.
#makeacademiagreatagain
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You want culture change in the economics profession?
Let's try positive reinforcement instead of bashing.
The other day,
@agoodmanbacon
, while home-schooling Idunnohowmanykids & preventing them from setting the 🏡on🔥, patiently&with a🙂 explained to me how to improve my DiD.🙏
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"(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?"
with Igor Goncharov and
@ioannidou_vasso
is out in print. Enjoy open access!
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Now *this* is amazing news!
The UK treasury is set to pay GBP 11bn to the Bank of England to indemnify it for its QE losses thus far.
This is a telltale for what to expect for future
#inflation
and monetary stability in the U.K.. Here is why: 🧵
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@bdjansenphd
Make the first 4 slides:
1. Research question
2. Why is it important
3. What do you do
4. What do you find.
Then the literature, if you absolutely must.
Don’t deviate.
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More than three years and $1.5trn
#cryptocurrency
market cap later, these remain interesting questions. (ht
@ATabarrok
)
I'll consider featuring answers (per reply to this tweet) in the new
@OxfordSBS
#blockchain
#strategy
programme!
#cryptotwitter
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TFW one of your computers has the presentation slides and the other computer has an internet connection
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"I'm sorry, but our mandate is to maintain price stability. Putting a price on carbon or otherwise addressing climate change is the job of elected politicians."
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"What's your field?"
Look, I don't have a field. I'm not a donkey.
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Who of the thousands of people who retweeted or liked that Bloom et al. attack thread has read their response?
It appears to show that neither censoring per se (but rather dropping half the obs) nor 1+patents materially affects results.
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Are you sick and tired of the doom and gloom of 2021?
Then wrap your head around these awesome achievements of humanity in 2021!
🧵
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Very pleased with the opportunity to teach real estate at Oxford going forward.
Get in touch if you'd like to exchange ideas!
We're delighted to confirm that award winning academic Martin Schmalz (
@OxfordFrom
) has been appointed the first Real Estate Professor and lead of Oxford Future of Real Estate Initiative (FoRE), as confirmed at the 8th Annual
@OxfordRE
Conference this week.
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Next time someone asks you why anybody should pay for an MBA at a top school & be taught by a cutting-edge researcher
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Did I mention we make the 13F (and 13D, G, Form 4 etc.) data from this paper available for academic research
Sorry no website yet, send email.
(Freely available 13F data elsewhere isn't just incomplete ***but also ~50% misparsed***. Choose wisely.)
Publish your data and you don't have to hassle junior assistant professors with nasty phone calls
#opendata
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Lockdown for Easter? It’s been tried, and it doesn’t work.
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The real issue is: it has become very difficult to fail an MBA class.
ChatGPT passed a Wharton MBA exam.
Time to overhaul education.
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Yay! The NBER SI (Monetary Economics) program will feature our paper
"(Why) Do Central Banks Care about their Profits?"
(This one: )
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Let's quickly crowdsource a list of conferences with a deadline mid-November?
1. WFA
Please reply to this tweet with others (or a link to a webpage that has a comprehensive list?)!
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Can we all please give a huge round of 👏 to
@causalinf
for creating this awesome community (while so many of us desperately need it!) with that
#AEA5k
thing?
It's amazingly inclusive, and so awesomely effective while we can't run together in person!
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I was asked for feedback on drafts these days. Here are some ground rules (not exhaustive):
1. Keep the intro to 5 pages or less
2. No literature review in first paragraph as motivation
3. No additional literature review as section 2. Start the analysis (or data section) on p.6!
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“Thank you for your email. The answer to your question is in the syllabus, which you can find on the course website.”
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What about we do reverse alphabetical order of author names for a few years?
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[Also, it's the weekend. Get off twitter and do something fun so you're mentally fresh for work again on Monday.]
You're welcome!😊
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Oh, there is an update!
Me waiting to hear back from journal after 3rd round submission
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What are your best practices for rebuilding a department culture post Covid?
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In grad school, I asked advisers why models of executive compensation don’t allow them trading in competitors’ stock, thus making attempts at indexing their performance all but futile. I was told that they can’t / surely wouldn’t do that.
Now I read this:
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I hope we economists don't sound like that when we talk about epi (and sociology, etc.)
I’ll admit I was trolling — believe me, epi knows what it’s like for expert advice to be ignored!
But happy to announce that, according to evons in my replies, the real reason you cant get rapid tests is the pesky FDA requirement that companies prove their tests actually work.
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So it’s detrimental for small kids to go to kindergarten rather than stay at home (JPE), but it’s also beneficial for preschoolers to go to preschool (this paper).
What’s the optimal age for kids to start kindergarten/preschool?
New in
@QJEHarvard
:
"The Long-Term Effects of Universal Preschool in Boston" by
@LobeGray
,
@prof_parag
, &
@c_r_walt
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Is that the kind of "economic theory" he taught at the University of Texas, Sydney, and Athens?
The madness of the EU’s electricity pricing: The price is set equal to the most costly unit (not to average cost). So, even if hydro or wind produce 99% of electricity for free, but the remaining 1% needs hyper-expensive gas, then ALL electricity is sold at huge prices. Mad!
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Lisbon - in person!
@cepr_org
@RevOfCorpFin
@bancodeportugal
@CtieLisbon
conference on Money and Banking -- Call for Papers. Spread the word!
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Embarrassing admission: I wasn't quite aware *how much* fees matter. [The math is roughly right.]
I'm even more impressed with Jack Bogle than I was before.
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Our paper “Why do central banks care about their profits?” Is forthcoming in the JF!
Here is a secret recording showing
@ioannidou_vasso
honing responses to the referee (who, joking aside, was extraordinarily helpful and generous with her comments).
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In grad school, one of my friends proposed that
Bavaria 🍺 is the Texas of Germany 🇩🇪.
Does your country have a "Texas" state? Which one is it? What makes it so?
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I'm excited to join the
@PCAOB
and join the effort to protect investors and further the public interest.
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Indeed - don’t do a PhD in anything - unless you like the idea of a pretty darn secure $300k staring salary right out of grad school combined with a pretty much unmatched degree of personal freedom. In that case, do a PhD in finance.
At this point my official advice to students thinking of doing a PhD in psych is: Don't.
Probably don't do a PhD in anything, but don't do one in psych.
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I’m stunned, shocked, saddened beyond words.
If there is one person who was a role model to me, it was him.
If there is one word that describes Denis, to me, it’s *generous*. Generous with his time, mainly, but also with his choice of words.
I am stunned and saddened to learn about the death of Denis Gromb. A wonderful, warm person, and an excellent economist. He has left us way too early. My sincere condolences to his friends, colleagues at
@hec
and family.
#EconTwitter
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Ironically, I almost got discouraged from applying to PhD programs after someone told me that with my background I had no chance of getting into a top program.
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There is a simple solution to this controversy:
1)
@jasonintrator
gets to keep his opinion that economists should not get the highest salaries, while
2) we economists get to keep our highest salaries.
Can we just agree on that?
#EconTwitter
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Your regular reminder to NOT say “exogenous shock” before you’ve said which regression you’re running.
Exogenous isn’t defined outside the context of a specific regression.
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Observation from / reflection to this year's job market candidates / PhD students out there:
You can't think about selection in your empirical setting without economic theory.
Theory is not dead. But theory may kill the causal interpretation of your empirical results.
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More from the same interview, on having kids pre-tenure:
Ariel Pakes on becoming an economist.
Full interview:
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"Machine learning" means glorified regressions
In 5 words or less, start a fight without politics
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hey
@matt_levine
, is banning President Trump securities fraud?
Twitter is plunging pre-market after banning President Trump
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Got rejected lately? It's ok. Everybody does.
- I got rejected, twice, at McKinsey in my early 20s. The career that followed suits me much better.
- I had a paper rejected at RF in the 2nd round, just to be published a few weeks later in the JFE, essentially without revisions.
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Lots of takes by my esteemed economist colleagues claiming that
#crypto
has zero fundamental value.
That seems clearly wrong? 🔥
Blackmail, buying illegal goods, escaping capital controls, laundering money -- lots of proven use cases. In addition, there is entertainment value!
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What’s the German word for the joy of creating compound words with uniquely precise meaning?
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Worried about
#greenwashing
,
#ESG
shenanigans etc.? It's worse than you think:
ESG rating firms rewrite historical ESG ratings *on a weekly basis*: firms with higher stock returns are assigned upgraded ESG ratings.
Look-ahead bias in measured returns!
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Call me biased, but I think this is one AMAZING program on the political economy of
#CentralBanks
that
@lambert_thom
@r_jmagda
& Co put together
incl.
@ioannidou_vasso
@MSchularick
@MonnetEric
@AlexMichaelide3
@aless_riboni
@DFoarta
@skokas01
@B_Eichengreen
#Econtwitter
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Oxford has a nomination committee, which nominates people to serve on various other committees. But how do the nomination committee nominees get nominated?
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Live footage of PhD students when adviser walks through corridor
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An alternative outcome is you might become motivated to stay in academia, e.g. when you realize you can achieve more important things by creating ideas than by creating PowerPoint slides.
A nice thing about working a little before PhD is you realize the outside option is not bad, you make a lot more money for working less, which allows you to chill a bit. If you'd never worked before PhD your mental model of industry is probably more or less hell on earth
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Couldn't be more excited to announce that is joining the FAME group
@OxfordSBS
. If you don't understand my excitement, check out his CV & papers!
Huge thanks to
@soumitradutta
and
@AndrewTStephen
for making this happen!
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Most people shouldn’t
Members of Congress should not own or trade individual stocks. And neither should their spouses.
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Schadenfreude is when someone bursts out laughing when they learn you’ve been made department head
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Do they still teach
#diversification
in business school?
Silicon Valley Bank was the main bank for two of our companies, my personal savings, and my mortgage. This is how things unfolded for us:
Between 2013 and 2023, all good.
Thursday, 9 AM: in one chat with 200+ tech founders (most in the Bay Area), questions about SVB start to
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Free advice to job market candidates this year:
Don't have typos on your website.
Also, don't have typos in your abstract.
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@arpitrage
The people doing the driving/polluting/killing and paying the price of the fancy new cars are different from those are do the dying from the driving and pollution?
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Academic finance has a infamously aggressive seminar culture, but have you ever given a talk in the *Ministry of* Finance?
They even decorate their seminar rooms so as to intimidate the speaker.
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The ozone layer is healing, thanks to implementation of the 1987 Montreal protocol, saving millions from skin cancer
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Statement by Al Roth and Paul Milgrom about the article by Professor Ramseyer
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It wasn't just Bill Gates.
21% of companies warned their investors of the risk of a pandemic in their 10k in 2018.
Nobody can credibly claim this was an unforeseen risk that one couldn't possibly have provisioned for (e.g. by retaining earnings).
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Are ppl actually surprised computers can pass MBA exams?
Would you be surprised if a computer passed the GRE verbal test? Or high school math? What's the point?
ChatGPT passed a Wharton MBA exam.
Time to overhaul education.
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Breaking news: a computer learned the telephone book by heart and can recite it with greater accuracy than a human
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On Thursday, I received the perhaps second-most touching compliment of my professional career.
Someone said she hadn't seen such a clear presentation of a theory paper since Denis Gromb.
🥹
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If you want a discussant that says what he thinks, invite Harald Hau.
(see the last line)
Also HH: “… or we loose all credibility, and the ownership literature moves away from the finance to the econ journals”.
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It's almost as if economists had told them so
Did Zillow figure out that machine learning predictions don't substitute for understanding the theory of asymmetric information problems?
(Is that the right interpretation of what happened? Or is it just that the ML was less powerful than .. aehm .. *predicted*?)
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Consumption-based asset pricing, behavioral finance, dynamic production-based asset pricing
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This seems as good a time as any to re-up this photo from grad school days
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Adviser providing helpful comments on job market paper draft
Body armor company demonstrates their "stab protection" vest on their CEO.
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What’s the German word for the joy of making Christmas cookies in the shape of one’s home country?
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Advice for PhD students:
The same is true for papers. Yes, you should only work on important questions.
But, mostly: start working on a question!
Then, iterate on what is the question you’re addressing with what you are doing and why that’s important.
Although everyone likes the idea of the epiphany, of the "idea that changed everything," unfortunately that's not how it happens. No successful company got there doing the thing they started off with. It's a process of trial and error, iteration, and persistence.
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