NomadBets
@NomadBets
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Traveller, Photographer and Growth investor.
Joined April 2009
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Pinned Tweet
$ASTS is not a normal start-up. It's an entire ✨industry project✨ backed by most telecom behemoths of which multiple have 100+ employees working on this. Billions of people will soon get a message on their phone with the
@AST_SpaceMobile
name on it.
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$ASTS a $200 stock. A poster to show your friends and family when asked what's going on with their stock you've recommended while 50% red.
Based on my own revenue model, full constellation, so let's say 2027~2030.
@AST_SpaceMobile
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@AJamesMcCarthy
Look, you can't just make a normal informative post and casually drop the most insane Jupiter shot we've seen here without promoting it as such.
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$ASTS My favorite thing about this is when in a couple of years when people ask me how I got my money, I will be able to say something like "See how you're phone's always connected? Yea so I researched 100's of hours & poured my life savings into these satellites 8 years ago".
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Insane day. This was the absolute coolest with all you SpaceMob. It will be a 24h+ awake for me and worth every minute. Look at this!
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Made it back to the Netherlands after a four day adventure to see the
@AST_SpaceMobile
BB1-5 launch. Basically 4 days of jetlag and broken nights, full of events. Here's what I experienced! 🧵
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$ASTS A little math we're looking out for this R2K additions. A small twitter chat group with ordinary people (~50) owning 4% of the free float, while I have nearly 1K ASTS followers. We 'aint selling until the constellation is up and printing our current cap every 2 months.
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Updated $ASTS price target (-$50):
- Added MNOs
- Added diluted shares.
Lots of new folks in the SpaceMob or giving the stock a look, so i'll give some background of the model I've used.
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$ASTS Why am I still here? Introverted communications, need of cash and delays on investor guidance. But I always take a step back and look at the big picture in my mind, which I have visualised for you: The tech is just too good, the partners too big and the promise too tempting
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Predict your own $ASTS price target with my free revenue model. Fill in your own estimates of subscriber usage and play around. The Google Sheet link below is 'view only', you'll have to create a copy for yourself and then you can do whatever you want.
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$ASTS Updated MNO list of D2D providers. 32 MNOs made public for
@AST_SpaceMobile
. Company claims to have 45 MNOs under MoU and nearing 3Bn subs. Covering one third of all global mobile subscribers.
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$ASTS What a day! My analysis of the Earning Call and why today's move is not so surprising at all.
Let's cut to the chase and go straight to the numbers.
Below the Q2/24 situation and my estimates. We got $64M more than expected from the ATM and of course the Verizon investment.
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Ladies & Gentleman. We have observed service link (sat-to-device) frequencies.
A lot more variety coming from
#BlueWalker3
. Testing seems in full swing. Looking out for the 37.5-42.5 GHz now. After that keep a good look at $ASTS.
@AST_SpaceMobile
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@AST_SpaceMobile
vs
@Starlink
Direct-to-Cell comparison. Being a NomadBets-original, obviously, in pictures.
Purpose is to show the differences when people say " $ASTS a Starlink competitor? Good luck lol".
Remember this compares to D2C only, not Starlink dish broadband!
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One thing to understand is how much of a huge industry disruption this is. I've read&watched many interviews about D2D and the whole sat-industry is pretending
@AST_SpaceMobile
doesn't exist. I know it wasn't a videocall yet, but I have no doubt we will hear about that soon: 🧵👇
Making history — the first-ever space-based voice calls using everyday unmodified smartphones! Thanks to my team and our partners. Read more: 🤠🤳🏻🇺🇸🇬🇧🇯🇵📶🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
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$ASTS Visual representation of 2025-26 Direct-to-Device services.
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$ASTS Adding short sentiment comments to the graph for dramatic effect.
May I remind shorts, or rather inform, that I know of a twitter chat group (~85 pers.) that's holding more than 6% of the free float with no intend to sell a single share before triple digits.
$ASTS: Hedge Funds pressed their short positions to a peak of 32.7M shares when the company's stock hit an all-time low of ~$2. These HFs got completely eviscerated in May when AST signed a commercial agmt with AT&T and signed a strategic partnership and investment with Verizon
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I've AI-enhanced the blurred picture and turns out Abel's pointing at a table full of cash. $ASTS
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$ASTS
35 MNOs, 101 countries
AST claims 40+ MNOs, but only these 35 are made public.
Update:
- Added Pelephone
- Added Telkomsel Indonesia (I missed somehow)
- Corrected AT&T (excluded wearables)
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Don't wanna brag, but I mean...😏💅
5-6 sept opened up again, looks like multiple rooms are available for you space enthusiast again. Same two booked-up days shifted to 11-12 sept.
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This is an incredible article for $ASTS holders. It's just too many pieces falling in place. I will break it down in this thread:
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Waaaow Tim, "Deliberately deceptive", really? You think your one-sided Starlink circle-jerk goes unnoticed? You have been bullying AST ever since they denied your service because you didn't want to sign a NDA. About "deliberately deceptive", remember this shit you tried to pull?
This is a good example of how the
#cluelesscult
buys into and promotes technical gobbledygook without understanding anything about physics or regulation. The question is whether the people putting out this nonsense are equally clueless or being deliberately deceptive
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So what's with the absurd $ASTS revenue projections? Impossible for a pre-rev start-up!
Let's have a look at the market as we know it today.
Below the revenue division of different internet market segments. (Please read the entire thread before commenting)🧵:
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$ASTS Playing around with Google Earth, can make some cool stuff in there! The true scale is coming to life. Here's BB1-5, BB6> & SL2.0
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Did a quick Mob inspection for the stages tonight. Seems Mob worthy! Met up with AST Head of Marketing and I can tell they are very excited and thankful to organise this for the support that you've all been giving!
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@AST_SpaceMobile
Fundraiser!
What a ride it has been. And what a ride ahead. The required cash for the constellation has been strongly underestimated by investors, but that risk's end is in sight. Who will pull $ASTS over the line?
@orange
@MTNza
@Telefonica
@VodafoneGroup
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I've finished the AST SpaceMobile Revenue Calculator Model 3000 (V 1.0)
Running the first numbers, it's going to be a rocky run-up till the constellation. But also, this company is going to print so much f-ing money it's ridiculous.
In this thread i'll explain the model.
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This $ASTS filing visualized. The constellation as intended by
@AST_SpaceMobile
with 2 planes highlighted (equatorial and 45°) with the filed serviceable reach. Green dots on the side are real satellite altitude.
The technical annex is 👀
65+65 degrees off boresight is a 130 degree field if view.
That is some extreme stuff.
62+62 is 124 degrees.
Up until now Bluebirds were thought capable of 58+58 which is 116 degree fov.
Also: 3 Q/V feeder links.
9/n
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If you wonder what the hell happened to
@AST_SpaceMobile
stock price, CEO
@AbelAvellan
gave a live interview last night. They also invited Twitter user "LEO-n🅰️rdo ", holding 34 $ASTS shares, and things spiralled quickly into an absolute train wreck. Painful scene to watch...
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$ASTS Made
@ASTS_Investors
data into a quick pie chart.
What can we learn from the 13F filings in $ASTS in Q2 2024? 🕵♂️
Despite there being a huge number of shares traded in Q2, the percentages are very consistent indicating there's a lot more buying to come! 🔥
Read the full report on our website ⬇️
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$ASTS is balancing on the hope for funding. Let's organise and see which parties have so far reached a helping hand to
@AST_SpaceMobile
and what they got out of it. So we see big names, and a lot of them. Allow me to make a small introduction, see below table:
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-9% 👉Here's some bullishness. For the ones scared the company relies solely on Abel here's an infographic I made. A combined 150 years of relevant industry experience in the $ASTS top management:
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Save this image if you have trouble explaining at work why you've put your lifesavings into an unknown satellite company.
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$ASTS According my model, current valuation is as if only half the MoUs would come to fruitation and only 0,5% of those subscribers would use AST. And no military or other contracts.
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I made this really cool interactive $ASTS revenue model, but I have a problem called Google Sheets. If someone changes, it's changing for everyone so can't use it at the same time. How do I share this as a copy to the world so if you f- up something, it doesn't f- up my original.
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I've made below graph to my best estimate on how $ASTS revenue might unfold. It will not be much at first, but explodes exponentially.
Only issue is to figure out what the usage will be because it is a totally new market. For that reason I've made three scenarios. Some notes: 🧵
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Just a heads up if you wanted to go on a holiday in the Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Center be aware that it's booked up from 5 to 6.
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$ASTS Purely speculative and borderline conspiracy thread. Thinking in opportunities of 5G from space keeps on hinting towards military use. If the tech works as promised, many people will elbow eachother to get in first. Why? Let’s take a look at what’s currently going on
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🇧🇷🛰️ With the
@TIMBrasil
MoU announcement,
@AST_SpaceMobile
has surpassed the 2Bn eligible subscriber count and in combination with
@Telefonica
cover 70% of the 214M Brazilian citizens.
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@FREESPEECH1017
So you think this is basic practise and "a regulatory master class" from Starlink? Man, I just copied your own words from 1.5 month ago and changed AST to Starlink. Give me a break, you've had a one-sided view of AST since Abel was born.
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@KevinLMak
SpaceMob is a group that's been holding for 3+yrs. We went through the absolute gutters while keeping faith in our collective DD. Our chat was a very dark place at $2, but now this group (85 prs) holds 6% of the freefloat so $30 is an insult to sell if $200+ will change our lives
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$ASTS I'm taking full credit for the bull run and like to be treated accordingly.
Jokes aside, take moment to appreciate the 180° change in Sat strategy by Verizon AND double it down by giving $100M in just under 3 months. Someone was very convincing since (or on) MWC Barcelona.
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$ASTS If they'd unfurl now, this is their FOV and overlap.
This spacing allows for all satellites to focus their beams in one single spot.
1/n
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Special thanks to Cecilia, AST head of marketing, whom we spoke together with Dave. Cecilia opted to management to invite as much as mobbers as possible when the amount of applications were exceeding far the expectations. Great call, ~15 busses of joy left the launch!
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$ASTS Me right now thinking about all the lists I have to update.
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$ASTS Our top 10 "partners" have a combined ANNUAL R&D budget of $12.9 billion, but it's impossible to come up with a financing strategy for the wet dream of the world's telecom industry. I'm absolutely baffled.
Rare footage of AT&T, Vodafone, American Tower and small retail investors waiting to see who'll pick up the
@AST_SpaceMobile
bill.
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$ASTS closes at post-merger ATH. Stronk.
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$ASTS was requested a clearer picture for the cells. I went a bit hard on aesthetics I agree, so here we go.
Which results in below. A vastly bigger area coverage and smaller beams (3x). Basically meaning less people to share available data with within a cell. AST: 460 sqkm, SL: 1379 sqkm per beam in the 2GHz-band.
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Due to ongoing complaints of not being up-to-date for like 2 whole days and a passive aggressive tweet from the CEO implying it being incomplete, please find the updated list below.
26 MoU signed. 📝
2,14 billions eligible users: 26,8% of the world population. 🌏
Democratizing access to knowledge and information together with the wireless industry leaders to meaningfully impact billions of lives! Building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network.
#5G
📶🌐
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Counting the $ASTS shares we can come to a few conclusions:
* Float is 30% smaller than the assumed 38M.
* Short interest is between 33-45% instead of 22%.
* Most institutions have been buying the dip between $11-$8
* SpaceMob is growing.
Read the thread below on why I think that
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What I think they're worth based on United States revenue only, excluding government contracts.
Let’s ask AI what the two deals with AT&T and Verizon is worth.
1/n
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(Second try, RöringKitti (
@CatSE___ApeX___
) made me re-do it, now incl. ATM)
UPDATE! Pretty insane how the prospects turned around completely in 2024. Me, someone who is very careful what I say, feel confident to say that the funding risk is largely been dealt with.
@AST_SpaceMobile
Fundraiser!
What a ride it has been. And what a ride ahead. The required cash for the constellation has been strongly underestimated by investors, but that risk's end is in sight. Who will pull $ASTS over the line?
@orange
@MTNza
@Telefonica
@VodafoneGroup
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How's that diversification going?
🤠☕️
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Over $1.05 trillion was wiped out from the US stock market today.
1K
4K
21K
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You are comparing apples/oranges. If I decide to make a motorcycle you can't throw the entire Honda revenue incl. cars and lawnmowers in my face. $ASTS is not competing the sat dish industry, so unless you can show me uncredible Starlink D2D revenues, stop the nonsense.
@SylwanJohan
@carolmassar
@SpaceX
@AST_SpaceMobile
@timsteno
@elonmusk
Space X has billions in revenue. ASTS will get 1 M it will be a celebration. Where is in favour? come on - look at the numbers
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#BlueWalker3
is being observed and reported on by RF-enthousiasts around Twitter. But what do they actually tell us? Here's a cheat-sheet of frequences filed under the FCC test-frequency approval.
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I went through more than 25 MNO financial reports to identify all $ASTS covered countries and the respective MNO subscriptions. But now I'm stuck on the amount of subs from:
@Telefonica
: Mexico & Argentina.
Saudi Arabia:
@Zain
,
@stc_ksa
&
@salammobilesa
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@AST_SpaceMobile
$ASTS
BlueWalker 3 has made it to orbit! The word is picking up and soon you'll have to explain your excitement and obvious new wealth.
How to explain this on a party without rapping all your DD into one sentence?
A quick thread of Q&As to be expected:
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@elonmusk
announced to bring satellite broadband straight to your phones, tapping into the untouched ~400B market of satellite direct-to-phone connectivity. But was he first? Space-race thread!
@SpaceX
,
@IridiumComm
,
@AST_SpaceMobile
,
@LynkTheWorld
,
@Globalstar
and
@OneWeb
.
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A 70+ page report on how Starlink is going to dominate D2D market: shattered in 36 hours by Starlink.
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If your telcompany doesn't have D2D by 2030, it will cease to exist shortly after.
BREAKING: AT&T inks commercial deal with satellite form AST SpaceMobile
@MorganLBrennan
reports
$T $ASTS
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A little thread on the use of $ASTS besides mobile use: shipping.
I work for a company where internet was early on adopted, which is still not the case for many vessels. And still.. it just sucks. Three seperate systems from bad to acceptable:
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Audi🤣AustonMartin🤣Bell🤣Bentley🤣Prada🤣Hugo Boss🤣Tommy Hilfiger🤣Heineken🤣Toyota🤣Versace 🤣Cadilac🤣Yamaha🤣Ford🤣Disney🤣Rolls-Royce🤣Harley-Davidson🤣Lamborghini🤣Ferrari🤣Lockheed🤣Siemens🤣Porche🤣Pfizer🤣Gucci🤣Dell🤣 that's the dumbest bear shit I've seen so far.
Whoa whoa whoa…. “AST” of $ASTS is an acronym for “Avellan Space Technology”??? He named the company after himself?!?? And the Spacemob thinks this ISN’T a meme?? Hahah omfg this is gunna end in teeeaaarrss for them…
ASTS = “Avellan Space Technology SpaceMobile” 😂 🤣
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Very sad day for the Spacemob. We will miss the DD and engagement of
@steve_larrison
very much. Absolute 🅰️OG.
I'll never forget this tweet below from when i was shouting my first tweets in the open air. Had notifications for days after his shoutout. Thanks for everything, Steve
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"MNOs that WILL give prepayments".
This has just became catalyst calendar✅
@CatSE___ApeX___
Efforts to raise money are on non dilutive payments instead of using their debt facility. That means MNO payments
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Got some pre-fun at Cocoa Beach with the crewed mission this morning. Can't wait to get closer for our
#bluebird1
launch. $ASTS.
Twitter takes a shit on the quality, I swear it looks pretty cool on my phone.
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Fairwinds Technologies does not seem to have an issue in obtaining DoD support $ASTS
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BlueWalker3 unfolding of the recent
@AST_SpaceMobile
PR movie with Telefonica played at 1/3 of the speed.
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Kind reminder that there has not yet been disclosed any financial agreement to the public. $ASTS catalyst is imminent.
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... spend thousands of hours on. A measly $30 is not gonna cut it.
I've always been scared of being perceived as a 'pumper', but today I'm allowed to say that I'm JACKED TO THE TITS for the future of this company and proud we held through.
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$ASTS Prior to signing a MoU with AST SpaceMobile & Omnispace, STC KSA invested $39M in "mobile communications service via satellite" licenses.
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Crossed the 1k follower mark. 999 related to $ASTS I'm sure! So for that one that follows me for Nomad-things, here's my last camping spot in the French Alpes! A place relatively close to home can still suprise you!
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$ASTS Self-explanatory when you look at the numbers✂️.
Numbers from my AST revenue model for the mentioned variables (speculative).
Lets talk about India.
It was just announced $ASTS opens an office and a NOC there.
1/n
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$ASTS Not my most aesthetically pleasing image, but thought it'd be nice to share this list I pulled from my AST/MNO database. They have 29 publicly confirmed MNOs under MoU, while the company announced to have already 40+ MoU's.
The power of numbers:
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Kind reminder that military/law enforcement were never included in the investor presentation's revenue projections. ✍🏻🤝🏻
AST SpaceMobile and
@fairwinds_tech
jointly announce a teaming agreement to explore potential opportunities with
#military
and law enforcement agencies. 🪖 🚔 🤝
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We're 2 months into 2022 and we saw the complete loss of internet connection in Yemen (war), Tonga (Volcano) and now struggling Ukraine. Desperate leaders begging for Starlink terminals while
@AST_SpaceMobile
could instantly solve this problem.
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... what is not realised here on Twitter is that we will get a double-catalyst: Announcing a new world-changing tech AND financial news from AT&T, simultaneously, or shortly after one another.
Probably a FirstNet contract(?)
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$ASTS We're cheering the tweets from AT&T, but we (retail investors) have not seen a single penny from AT&T, while below (shares owned) Telcos have invested nearly 1/2B.
We all know business doesn't fly like that, so ...
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$ASTS Why did Abel say that the US is the most valuable market? AT&T is the
#5
in amount of subs.
Easily explained when crunching the numbers👇
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In fact, I've taken liberty to go through your tweets. Every single one is negative and more depressing than a bag full of dead puppies. Do you have any joy in the things you do?
Anyway, let's play a game of "AST headlines and Tweets where Tim suggested the opposite".
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And now I sleep! This will never be forgotten, so congratulations
@AbelAvellan
@scottwisniews
and the entire
@AST_SpaceMobile
team. Looking forward to keep supporting the company and to continue to be critical on performances and making memes.
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@AST_SpaceMobile
's first official mention of Claro. Huge MNO in S.America good for 310M subs. Assuming ARPU $2, Usage 2% this would add ~$10 to the $ASTS stock price ✨in the long run✨.
Total eligible subs 2,6Bn.
Big news for connectivity in Brazil! With challenging geography leaving millions of people without cell coverage, we support regulator
@AnatelGovBR
's decision to create a "regulatory sandbox." The initiative facilitates the testing of
#ASTSpaceMobile
's space-based cellular
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GREAT interview! Chris Sambar with an anecdote. Turns out we figured out AT&T cooperation while only ~12 people within AT&T knew about AST. That's how you know you're early.
Bit naive of us to think tho we'd get AT&T funding, while the CFO didn't know AST until after BW3 launch
This was an out of this world (pun intended)
@g2_5g
Standalone
#5G
podcast episode brought to you by
@MoorInsStrat
- thank you
@chrissambar
&
@AbelAvellan
for an insightful discussion!
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At 30, google how candles work, what a market cap is.
At 31 dump your lifesavings in $ASTS.
Make your child a millionaire:
When they're born, invest $1,000 in an S&P 500 index fund.
Invest $100 every month until they're 21.
By age 21, they'll have $109,000 invested.
You can leave it alone and stop adding to it.
At age 50, that money should grow to $2.6 million.
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They will print their current market cap every two quarters. They will print cash worth the cost of their constellation every month, with a profit margin of 90-98%. Every professional and retail analyst has a stock price target of three digits.
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I've updated the business model; added the starlink tmobile deal and put back openran by creating more space by editing the nokia-ast deal.
My intention is to give a clear overview for you to share with your friends and family on why you've put your lifesavings on one stock.
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@AST_SpaceMobile
My take on the latest $ASTS earning call. We went through the darkest period yet, due to the realisation that what we were promised was simply not possible and not happening. The scales below is as clear as I can think of: 🧵👇
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And for the first time i'll publicize my database (without revenue model, doesn't fit)
It contains all the MNO AST works with that I could find and then went through all reports to filter the countries that AST said to operate in based on the map in their investor presentation.
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$ASTS Analyst price target history.
$ASTS: Still waiting for Barclays to do a full research update. UBS is not shown below, which has a $30 PT.
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@acreswatchback
Noone is buying $ASTS for what the company is today. They are buying for when it's printing rklb Q2 revenues every week.
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