New on Substack: two tales about the limits the Kremlin has to observe when making policy, appointments of war participants (including Zhoga) and the development of the Far East - and some other stories from the past two weeks.
Well, I didn't see this coming: the vice-president of Gazprombank apparently left Russia, joined Ukraine's territorial defense forces, called the war an international crime and claimed that the recent death of former Gazprombank deputy president Vladislav Avayev was a murder.
Волобуев сказал, что родился в Украине и хочет защитить свою страну. Войну он назвал «международным преступлением» со стороны Путина и российского народа
Journalists: unless you're debunking them, you don't need to report the "results" of the sham "referenda". Any number you hear or see - alleged turnout, yes/no, etc. - are entirely fictitious. This is an annexation attempt, which has no bearing on the status of the regions.
So you're shocked and appalled by Viktor Orban's speech today, in which he talked about Hungarians not being "mixed-race" and not wanting to become that?
I understand the revulsion, but not the shock. Orban has been saying such things for years. A long 🧵
The Russian government is administering an across-the-board cut of 10% in budgetary expenses. This is in reaction to a larger-than-expected decline of fiscal revenues over the summer (a deficit of close to 1.5 trillion rubles). This is likely only the first step.
Правительство запускает секвестр бюджета после сильнейшего за 11 лет обвала доходов
Минфин сообщил министерствам, что финансирование урезается на 10% после того, как за лето в бюджете образовалась дыра на 1,5 трлн рублей.
Viktor Orban, the head of an EU/NATO government in office, is busy meeting the instigator of a failed coup attempt in the United States. If this isn't a gigantic red flag, I don't know what is.
It is very depressing to see supposedly liberal politicians taking over the talking points of the far right from only 4-5 years ago. "Syrians should stay in their country and stand up to the government". "Fleeing the draft in Eritrea does not qualify you for asylum".
“Every citizen is responsible for the actions of their state, and citizens of Russia are no exception. Therefore, we do not give asylum to Russian men who flee their country. They should oppose the war.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
We know that Russia’s federal budget is cracking under the weight of sanctions and that the government is forced to use the National Welfare Fund to finance a ballooning deficit. But what’s happening to regional budgets? A short thread 🧵
I checked Orban's speech to see if this was a mistranslation. It wasn't. He really called the president of Ukraine an adversary that he defeated.
There's no turnaround on Putin, there never has been.
Viktor Orban declared victory over six foes in his speech:
1) The "left" at home
2) The "international left" abroad
3) The Brussels bureaucrats
4) George Soros
5) The international media
6) Volodymyr Zelensky
Things are approaching a crunch point in Hungary. Weeks ago it seemed that Orban may compromise on the aid package; he refused to. Meanwhile Hungary is gripped by fuel shortages & the central bank head - his ally - is attacking Orban's economic policy.
Russia's minister of transportation lets it drop that sanctions have led to a complete breakdown of logistics in Russia. According to a fresh survey, a third of companies have had logistical problems; 51% have trouble witg imported parts & ingredients.
- Orban blocks oil embargo
- Erdogan may block Finland/Sweden NATO membership
- Paul blocks military aid to Ukraine
Orban is transactional (he's after money); Erdogan seems to be opportunistic. What's Paul's deal? Ideological extremism and/or corruption?
American friends, as a student of Eastern European politics I can tell you what this is: the capture of the state by a criminal group. It has happened in Moldova, it has happened in Romania, it has happened in Hungary, and yes, it can, indeed it already has happened in the US.
Trump says of Pence: "He calls all the governors. I say, 'Mike, Don't call the governor of Washington. You're wasting your time. Don't call the woman in Michigan.' ... If they don't treat you right, I don't call."
Remarkable video made by Slovakian intelligence and published by
@dennikN
, showing a Russian "diplomat" recruiting a disinformation influencer to act as a spy.
Last week
@TheEconomist
made a visualization of what a Russian media consumer sees. I thought that a similar page could be made on how narratives are created & amplified by Orban's media in
#Hungary
. Then my brilliant brother and I got together, so enjoy:
I know more important things have happened today, but also Hungary is set to see what already looks like the biggest and potentially most impactful political protest of the past years in Hungary, organized by online influencers and civilians.
My hottest analytic take today, of course, is that all the Treasury sanctions are just a distraction. America's actual plan to retaliate and inflict pain on Russia is this.
I don’t have much desire to insert myself into the “visa ban” discourse, bc I think time would be better spent discussing energy policy, ramping up weapons shipments to Ukraine, and further sanctions. But it looks like the discussion will impact policy, so here’s my two cents. 🧵
The storytelling power of a well-oiled and disciplined illiberal propaganda machine: six months after the invasion, 3% of Orban's voters think Russia is responsible for the war; 12% blame Ukraine and 49% blame the United States. Similar numbers at neo-fascist "Mi Hazank".
Staffers at One America News said they felt responsible for spreading misinformation that led to the Capitol riot. But they had bills to pay, they said, and no other job options. "We're not Nazis," one producer told me. "Just, like, everyday people."
Medvedev calls the non-recognition of Crimea's annexation "a systemic threat to Russia". One of the main reasons why it's always been very difficult to take any of Russia's "security concerns" seriously is that many of them are manifestly bogus.
Attention! We have found someone who liked Orban's "race-mixing" speech, in which he also blamed Ukraine and the collective West for the war: it's Ramzan Kadyrov.
Between a roaring ovation for (likely winner) Ukraine, a not-so-subtly unionist banger from Moldova and Baltic states showcasing their modernity and language in their songs, this must be the Kremlin's
#Eurovision
semi-final from hell, and I'm here for it.
Russia is not only losing Ukraine completely; it is also losing Europeans in a broader sense. The longer the aggression goes on, the more of this (and more) can be expected and the less sense it will make for politicians to run on pro-Russian tickets.
Tinkov tells the
@nytimes
that the Kremlin threatened to expropriate him for his anti-war statement and in the end forced him to sell his stake in Tinkoff for pennies. There's no room for money independent of the Kremlin in today's Russia.
Second reading of the Russian federal budget: a deficit of 2.9 trillion rubles, military expenditures up 43%, domestic security up 50%. Investments and economic development down 20%, certain development programs even more.
If you ever need a reminder that beyond all the terrible things he's done Putin doesn't have a sense of humor either, just remember that he had the opportunity to make Vladimir Vladimirovich Vladimirov the governor of the Vladimir Oblast and instead he appointed him to Stavropol.
According to President
@ZelenskyyUa
, conditions for peace negotiations with Russia are the following:
1. Restoring territorial integrity
2. Respecting UN Statute
3. Paying off all damages caused by war
4. Punishing each war criminal
5. Guarantees this won't happen again
Tucker Carlson spotted again in Moscow. He tells an Izvestia reporter he had read lots about Russia, so he "wanted to talk to people, look around, and see how it's doing... and it's doing very well."
Asked if he'll interview Putin, he says: "We'll see."
This exactly the kind of realization that long-term costs are increasingly unavoidable, which I wrote about back in July, and which I suspect will lead to (at least) a scramble for resources. Instead of tapping the sign, let me re-up this piece.
The independent Hungarian media outlet
@444hu
made a documentary about one of the most successful and frightening aspects of Orban's governance: coordinated smear campaigns in the media. Now it's available with English subtitles. It's well worth your time
It tells you all you need to know about the Russian Orthodox Church that it is full-throatedly supporting a war that is leading to people getting arrested for supporting the Fifth Commandment. (Of the rest, they've done away with the Seventh long ago.)
@lijukic
When I lived in Brussels, this was available in every gift shop as a postcard (along with similar designs, regrettably none of which featured CEE members, though I would've loved to see "devout as a Czech" or "healthy as a Hungarian").
This coming Sunday, April 3, Hungary will hold a parliamentary election. In the following three days, in three THREADS, I will try to briefly explain why the vote is important, what to watch, whom to follow and what the next weeks may look like. This is thread nr. 1.
To be honest, cleaning up the UK's act on dirty money (of any kind, not just Russian) really shouldn't depend on whether or not Russia invades Ukraine again.
The Kremlin vowed to retaliate if Britain seized Russian oligarchs’ London properties as part of sweeping sanctions aimed at deterring Moscow from invading Ukraine
"As prime minister, I stole, cheated and lied, this is why I'm being persecuted in my country. Will you take me in?"
"We are always happy to welcome those who share our culture!"
An accurate description of what seems to be going on, by HU caricaturist Marabu.
#Gruevski
#Orban
Rosstat's industrial production figures for June, on a map. The slow but steady deterioration continues and the E-W split is even more pronounced. The hardest hit sector is still car manufacturing, but metallurgy, electronics, chemical industry are also in trouble.
The State Traffic Air Management Corporation may not have funds to pay salaries in late September, due in part to the double whammy that the COVID crisis and sanctions delivered to it.
This is where one adds their SoundCloud, right?
I don't have any, but I do write proper analysis on Russia, e.g. this one here from yesterday on this year's Duma election and smart voting.
And obviously,
@navalny
should be immediately released.
Last week I looked at what the authorities need to do to grant United
#Russia
a supermajority in this year's Duma election.
Here I take a deeper dive into those all-important single-mandate districts. Navalny's return also gets a mention.
Bloomberg узнал о возможной передаче Renault своей доли в АвтоВАЗе. Однако компания не сможет передать свои 68% акций второму владельцу — «Ростеху», поскольку тот находится под санкциями
What is happening in
#Moldova
is essentially a coup attempt. An interest group that controls most state institutions is attempting a hostile and unlawful takeover of power from a lawfully elected government. This is my understanding of the situation. THREAD.
CNII Electronica, a Rostec contractor, which plays a key role in the development strategy of the Russian radio-electronic industry (ostensibly itself a priority due to sanctions), where employees turned to Putin himself due to wage arrears.
It's almost funny because this was the whole idea behind the Budapest Memorandum, and you'll never guess what happened next.
On a serious note: remember you don't need to care what Pinker (or Chomsky, Kissinger, or any other self-styled public intellectual) thinks about Ukraine
Everyone here is in a weird state of mind: the next years will be all about survival; we're all drinking heavily; we're hugging dogs; we're mocking people we see on TV; we're angry and scared, and too scared to show it.
Please hug a Hungarian in the coming days. They'll need it
Ural Compressor Plant, Yekaterinburg, where, after wage arrears and strikes the management apparently decided to “reorganize” (read: reduce) wages from October. The company couldn’t pay workers due to failed export contracts and frozen partner accounts.
Josep Borrell’s visit to Moscow was a painful and avoidable embarrassment. But Russia is not reading the EU right, either. A THREAD on what Moscow isn’t getting. /1
The Russian Orthodox Church is a criminal extremist organization (this is not news, of course, but the patriarch's pronouncements are always a reminder). It's understandable why Ukraine would strip it of its property in the country.
While delivering a sermon just now at the Main Church of Russia’s Armed Forces, Patriarch Kirill, high priest the Russian Orthodox Church, declares, “We broke the backbone of fascism, may God help us today.”
- Invest in Russian civil society, in the new diaspora, especially those with links to organizations still active in Russia. Many of them will want to go home in the future.
- Arm Ukraine. For things to have a chance to improve in Russia, Putin must lose this war decisively.
In the coming days the focus will be (and should be) on practical response:
- Prepare for Ukrainian refugees, especially in the EU;
- Pull out all the stops when it comes to sanctions; prepare for economic impact, which will be devastating;
- Arm Ukraine.
In this somewhat rambling THREAD 🧵 on some recent developments in the Western discussion on Russia’s war against Ukraine, I would like to focus on our incapacity to keep being focused on the tasks at hand and not to be distracted by our own impatience and fantasies.
Strangely, Medvedev compares the present system to the late USSR several times, e.g. later in the interview he says that people shouldn't forget that they might have felt crappy in the 1980s but when things changed, their lives became worse. What a shining vision to offer!
Inna Belyaeva, a communist deputy in a district assembly of the Voronezh Region called out war crimes committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
The war put the long-simmering conflict between the KPRF's new activist base & the party's ossified leadership on full display.
Депутат районного совета прямо на заседании произнесла антивоенную речь, назвав действия властей «военным преступлением»
Нина Беляева депутат Семилукского районного совета Воронежской области: «Я считаю то, что происходит, военным преступлением».
Why is this significant? Because this crisis is not going away. It didn’t start with mobilization, but a policy that takes hundreds of thousands of people out of the workforce (either because they’re drafted or because they’re hiding) will greatly exacerbate this problem.
One of Orban's attack-dog media was named after "The Boys of Pest", teenage defenders of the city against Soviet troops in 1956. Now the same outlet, I kid you not, runs an article condemning the teenage defenders of Kyiv, calling people who gave them firearms "killers,".
Prime Minister Orbán in Budapest
Prime Minister Orban in Bucharest
*opens American news sites with the same evil grin as when the prime ministers of Slovakia and Slovenia resigned within a day of one another*
And
#Romania
has a new goverment led by Ludovic Orban. The new government has received the vote of confidence of the Parliament. 240 votes in favour, 233 were needed.
Your reminder that the world - including Twitter - doesn't need to care what
- grifters like Peterson
- charlatans like Chomsky
- blind ideologues like Mearsheimer
- deeply flawed thinkers like Kissinger
- German intellectuals living in the 60s
think about the war in Ukraine.
For those who aren’t familiar with Russian budgeting: regional budgets finance vital state functions. About 90 percent of them are spent on five broad areas. “National economy” includes investments.
Navalny calls for an unprecedentedly large social media ad campaign, targeted at Russian users (many of whom keep using Western platforms) about the reality of the war in Ukraine. I'm skeptical about the reach, but it's true, this hasn't been tried. Platforms have little to lose.
1/31 Truth and free information hit Putin's insane regime just as hard as Javelins.
This is a thread about opening the second front against the war criminal from the Kremlin — the informational front.
Exhibit B.
Btw, I'm old enough to remember how, a month ago, many proponents of the visa ban stressed that asylum/humanitarian visas were available.
It's almost strange to say this, but Germany got *this* right in 2015-16 and, it seems, also now.
It appears that Orban thinks that he must charge ahead to force the Council to drop the conditions to release Hungary's EU funds. But I doubt that this is the right strategy. The EU can find a way around the Hungarian veto; Orban can cause frustration, but won't stop the decision
Great to start my visit to Ukraine 🇺🇦 with a walk in beautiful
#Kyiv
Looking forward to our program & meetings
@DmytroKuleba
together with my Baltic colleagues 🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹
📷 St. Sophia’s Cathedral
I cannot write any kind of sober analysis right now. Four months ago, when this started, I didn't think this was likely. And then for a long time, up until last week, I thought this was not the likeliest outcome. I was wrong.
60 years ago my grandparents went on what I think was their first holiday abroad, to East Germany. This is how such holidays worked back then in Eastern Europe (see 2nd picture for an English translation).
I remind myself every time that I cross a non-existing border in Europe.
Their three main sources of income are personal income tax, profit tax and (in most, but not all regions) various transfers from the federal budget. The two income taxes make up roughly 65-70 percent of “own revenues” (revenues without transfers).
In what is perhaps the most absurd turn yet in the Orban/Russia saga, Russia's embassy in Budapest published a Telegram message, in which it claims that the "descendants of the freedom fighters of '56 (...) resolutely reject any outside pressure".
Gemont, a Turkish construction firm and partner of Sibur, in Nizhnekamsk, where wage arrears due to the bankruptcy of the company led to a strike in July.
Regional budgets had a very good start of the year: the economic recovery that followed the nadir of the covid crisis still lasted, energy prices were high, helping other areas of the economy, and spending on the “National Projects” picked up.
Correct. People resigning from RT and other similar media *now* deserve little more than a shrug unless they take part in dismantling their former employer. Forget about your NDAs. Provide all information that you can to journalists & law enforcement; the more, the better.
No, but please grab as many screenshots and chat dumps as you can before you shut the door of your supervisor’s office on your way out. My Telegram is noodleremover2017. Good luck and see you on the other side!
Among the worst performers we can see metallurgical regions, timber-producing regions, but it is also impressive to see the bumper profits of the coal-producing Kemerovo, or even some oil and gas producing regions, turn around in Q3.
More drone attacks reported in Russia’s capital, this time hitting the Moscow International Business Center (Moscow-City) high-rises, which house the offices of the Communications and Mass Media Ministry.
GruzovchikoF transportation company, St. Petersburg, where in July drivers mounted a protest after the company essentially cut their wages in half in an attempt to keep clients.