Nick DuCate
@Nick_duCat
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“Others have seen what is and asked why. I have seen what could be and asked why not.” ~ Pablo Picasso Walk gently in the lives of others.
Joined May 2015
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Last Seen Profiles
I am really starting to worry that
@DoombergT
might be an optimist....
🇳🇱 The Dutch minister of Finance, who also happens to be the co-chair of the Global Action Group at the WEF, is now looking to introduce a law to monitor ALL transactions over €100. If that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what to tell you.
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Stock market after Fed raises 50 bps and starts 90 Billion in QT next month.....
(cool though, watch to the end)
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Having sounded the alarm over politicians bad energy policies for a while now,
@DoombergT
and
@Josh_Young_1
might appreciate this....
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@chigrl
Berkshire owns such a wide range of companies that Buffett has an almost real time take on the economy. The fact that (arguably) one of the world's greatest investors is selling and not buying is, to me at least, a very bearish sign for the economy and the markets.
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@chigrl
China has discovered it is cheaper, faster and more efficient to buy politicians rather than build aircraft carriers.
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@newrepublic
I strongly urge you to move your entire operation to Wuhan, China to demonstrate your enlightenment & set an example for the rest of us.
If you fail to move immediately the rest of us will be obliged to consider your statement nothing more than virtue signaling stupidity.
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@chigrl
So basically the US economy now permanently requires trillions in stimulus each month going forward or the economy slips into recession?
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This is your daily reminder that "energy is life"
The world is not prepared for what comes next
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In all fairness, OPEC has warned traders many, many times....
You can't run a global economy or fill your tank with paper barrels. The world is not prepared for what comes next....
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From SLB's latest c/c: "We are just contracted in the last six months by Saudi for oil development offshore"
Let that sink in. Why is SA going offshore? To me it is further proof
@Josh_Young_1
's call OPEC+ is nearly out of spare capacity is correct. Markets are not prepared...
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No doubt sabotage by "evil gas station owners".....
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Interesting read
"Nitrogen fertiliser isn't perfect. It has a huge environmental footprint and we're all trying to use less of it anyway. But in our present food system, it keep billions of people alive, and any fundamental change will quickly hit the poorest in the world first"
Fertiliser pricing: what it actually means for us farmers, and why it should matter to politicians too. A 🧵
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If this was really about "saving the planet" politicians would be pushing for zero-carbon base load nuclear power not intermittent wind and solar. Think about it.....
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China has done a great job of fostering global unity.......against China
China will love this this... >>
#India
to take a call on
#Australia
's inclusion in Malabar next week
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The way Buffett keeps buying oil almost makes you think it was an integral component of the global economy....
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Market has been pricing equities like we are going to have a soft landing but pricing oil like we are heading for a depression. Both of these cannot be correct....
Oil company executives and other fund managers are also seeing what I've been saying on falling refining margins:
low crack spreads are more reflective of large capacity additions than of oil demand destruction, and are "good enough" for robust oil prices
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@Josh_Young_1
@PauloMacro
Events are unfolding to create the 'perfect storm' for oil. China reopens in the next few months, we have the SPR being drained, OPEC is running low on spare capacity and there has been ~8 years of underinvestment globally. Even a recession is just a speed bump to what's coming.
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@Josh_Young_1
So what this really means is that the Biden Administration isn't 'anti-oil', they are just 'anti-American oil'....
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The world is in the midst of a global energy crisis and Warren Buffett, arguably one of the world's greatest investors, is investing heavily in energy. Just some food for thought....
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway buys 5.99 million more Occidental shares
For more on Buffett buying oil and gas stocks:
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I hope
@DoombergT
doesn't see this. It might be a sensitive subject....
The chicken you are eating has increased 364% in size over the last 50 years.
Here is what this means for your health.
THREAD 🧵
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Bad energy policies have consequences.
Energy ignorance has consequences.
You can ignore reality but you can't ignore the consequences of reality....
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It appears the
@hkuppy
's 'Project Zimbabwe' is well on its way to becoming reality....
One month later:
Total US Debt is now $33.649 trillion, up $58 billion in one day and up $604 billion in one month... up $20 billion every day, up $833 million every hour.
At this rate US debt will be $41 trillion in one year.
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@hkuppy
's Project Zimbabwe is fast becoming a reality.....
This is truly unbelievable…
The US National Debt is now rising by
$1 TRILLION every 100 days.
$32 Trillion ➡️ $33 Trillion - 92 days
$33 Trillion ➡️ $34 Trillion - 106 days
$34 Trillion ➡️ $35 Trillion - Est ~95 days
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Oil inventories rise - oil price falls
Oil inventories fall - oil price falls
Fear of recession - oil price falls
Expectation of soft landing - oil price falls
Is it just me or is there some sort of a pattern here?
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The Saudis have issued a number of warnings but markets continue to ignore these warnings. You can ignore reality but you can't ignore the consequences of reality....
The world should be worried: Saudi Aramco - the world's largest oil producer - issued a dire warning of "extremely low capacity"
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A quick recap if you haven't been paying attention:
- OPEC running low on spare capacity & warning multiple times more investment is needed
- China reopens
- Russian sanctions begin
- SPR at multi-decade lows
Despite the warnings the world is not prepared for what comes next...
Another month, another OPEC+ oil production miss vs their quotas
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@DoombergT
Why are there all these conspiracy theories about the WEF? It's just a bunch of billionaires and multinational corporations getting together to figure out how to obtain even more money & power, uh, I mean save the planet.....
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Months ago
@Josh_Young_1
questioned how much spare capacity OPEC had.
Then OPEC acknowledged they are running out of spare capacity and said physical markets are tight.
Now one of the greatest value investors of all time is buying oil (heavily).
Just something to think about..
FERC approves Warren Buffett application to buy “up to 50%” of $OXY $brk
#buffett
#oxy
#oil
@FERC
H/t
@Michael18706145
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Being a contrarian investor isn't easy. Many may claim to be but few actually are. However if you can stomach the volatility and the loneliness of not being part of 'the crowd' it can be highly profitable in the long term....
On down days, as negative sentiment appears overwhelming, it is helpful to remember compelling fundamentals. We are early in a likely long, powerful oil bull market.
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@chigrl
Poland's new slogan...."Better warm than woke"
The same people who will denounce Poland for this will be strangely silent about China building and funding 100s of new coal plants.
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@chigrl
This seems exceedingly environmentally friendly. Thank goodness these noble souls will help save the planet, even if they need to tear up every last inch of pristine nature to do it......
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@chigrl
Does anyone ever ask about the long-term health effects of eating these highly processed "alternative meat" products?
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Albert Einstein:
'Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.'
@DoombergT
and
@Josh_Young_1
might find this....interesting
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What's this? Doing something that isn't energy ignorant but will actually help Europe deal with the energy crisis!
Will
@DoombergT
&
@Josh_Young_1
be as shocked as I am?
Dutch government activates energy crisis plan, to produce 2.8 bcm Groningen gas
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@Josh_Young_1
@Reuters
More bullish news for oil. Today's price action shows the divergence between physical demand and markets. At times like these one must ask "do I have the courage of my conviction?" and act accordingly....
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just to recap:
- OPEC admits spare capacity is tight
- shale oil growth faces challenges
- global super majors continue to underinvest in new production
- Russia & Libya face issues, Nigeria's production drops below 1mm bod
the world is not prepared for what comes next....
$EOG forecasts US oil production growth this year at a lower level than the EIA and consensus, and expects even slower growth in 2023.
Supply chain challenges & cost inflation cited. Implies well productivity disappointment & possible core exhaustion
#oil
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"When it's raining gold you want to run outside with a bucket not a thimble" ~ Warren Buffett
Markets worry about demand when they should be worried about supply. Global inventories fell all year with China locked down & no sanctions on Russia. What happens when that reverses?
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One day markets will realize that they should have been worried about supply not demand....
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@ericnuttall
often mentions that energy demand is growing and we will be using oil for decades to come. Turns out even the IEA agrees with him. Here is a chart projecting energy demand in emerging markets over the next few decades. Just something to think about....
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Someone knows the proper way to spend the weekend!
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Sorry oil bears but shale oil isn't going to prevent the coming energy crisis....
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With each passing month
@Josh_Young_1
's thesis on OPEC spare capacity (or lack thereof) looks to be increasingly accurate....
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Many are dumping on
@ericnuttall
but long-term his thesis is correct. Even with a possible recession in 2024 Saudi projects ~105mm/bod of demand in 2025. Throw in ~7mm/bod in annual decline and things start to look 'interesting'.....
Oil sentiment continues to erode, approaching historically low levels, corroborating what subjectively feels like overwhelming negativity at the moment. This too shall pass.
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As
@DoombergT
has been reporting, unrest in China continues. In fact it may be increasing. Hungry people are angry people....
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In the middle of a global energy crisis the Biden Administration has supressed domestic energy production and engaged an increasingly antagonistic 'war of words' with the producers of 40% of the world's energy....
I've been joking about OPEC++, because US oil production has been declining, at least partially because of hostile policies by
@JoeBiden
. But the US now has a depleted SPR and limited short term production capacity. Not good if OPEC escalates. 😬
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We are sleep walking into an energy crisis while investors rush into Mag7 stocks.....
🤦
Biggest draw of inventories of the last 8 years. Down 111 mln bbls since end of last year, and counting ...
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Markets are not pricing in any geopolitical risk for energy. The Nordstream pipeline was sabotaged, there is civil unrest in Iran, Iraq and Libya, and Iran is threatening Saudi infrastructure. Markets are 'meh' the magical SPR has it covered.....
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After today's wild ride it may be a good time for a reminder: If you have done the work & have conviction that your thesis is correct then volatility is not to be feared but embraced as opportunity. If you fail to do the work you won't have conviction when you need it most....
SAUDI ENERGY MINISTER ABDULAZIZ: THE CURRENT CUT OF 2 MILLION BPD WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL THE END OF 2023; IF ADDITIONAL MEASURES ARE REQUIRED TO BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND, WE WILL BE READY TO INTERVENE - STATE NEWS AGENCY.
OPEC++ intact. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃🛢️🦬
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@Josh_Young_1
Oil demand grows yearly driven by developing economies. Any recession is a minor speed bump to demand growth. Supply faces 8+ years of capex constraint, political vilification, ESG concerns & supermajors are spending less on production. OPEC will cut if prices drop too low.
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@DoombergT
Biden: I have spent the past two years vilifying the oil & gas industry at every possible turn, cancelled pipelines and thrown up as many legal and regulatory barriers I could think of. I just can't understand why they refuse to pump more oil when I demand they do so!
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They didn't believe
@Josh_Young_1
when he said it but I wonder if markets will believe OPEC when OPEC says they are running out of spare capacity?
OPEC Sec Gen: “OPEC is running out of capacity... with the exception of 2-3 members all are maxed out ... the world needs to come to terms with this brutal fact.” From RBC Conference.
Sounds a lot like this from
@BisonInterests
, Oct 2021:
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@Josh_Young_1
A conspiracy theory is when someone figures something out 6-12 months before the rest of the world does. Like OPEC+ is running out spare capacity for example....
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"None are so blind as those who refuse to see"
Markets refuse to believe that we are facing a global energy crisis. Physical supply remains tight, OPEC has repeatedly warned & global inventories continue to decline. You can ignore reality but you can't ignore the consequences...
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@chigrl
Ever notice politicians always think another tax is the solution to just about every problem?
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When it comes to investing in energy this isn't the beginning of the end, it isn't even the end of the beginning. IMHO we are looking at a long bull market in energy thanks to years of underinvestment in new capacity, government over-regulation and a focus on ESG....
Time for institutional investors to look down-market cap in o&g to "catch up"? 🦬
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Reasonable given everyone else is working from home.....
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As
@Josh_Young_1
might say "Bullish oil?"
Energy remains well hated for the most part as an investment. Well hated investments are often profitable in the longer term and Buffett is a long-term investor. Just some food for thought....
JUST IN:
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B filed for its purchase of 3.7 Million more shares of Occidental $OXY at an average price of $58.98 per share
Berkshire now owns 211.7M shares of Occidental + 83.9M warrants to purchase more shares of common stock
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There are your "doom & gloom, the world is ending" types but is it really "doom & gloom" if you provide a rational, fact based analysis of our current situation?
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Yet another warning from the Saudis on spare capacity that once again will be ignored by the markets.
@Josh_Young_1
's thesis on OPEC+ spare capacity has been spot on but markets continue to refuse to accept reality. Apparently 'denial' isn't just a river in Egypt....
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Each time oil begins showing strength, rising above ~$90 a rumor surfaces about some new source of oil supply flooding the market. The MSM pushes it, the algos run with, and oil prices react. I'm sure this is all coincidence..... 🤔
The fear of Saudi Arabia flooding the oil market due to some rumoured "grand deal" with the US I believe has zero validity. Such an action would undo the heavy lifting of the past several months and be counter to HRH's central aim for price stability. This rumour, along with bad
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@chigrl
When it comes to foreign policy it seems like Russia is playing chess, China is playing "Go" and the US is having trouble getting the checker board set up......
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so I'm guessing that I should use up some of my vacation time before it's too late?
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This is seriously becoming my favorite oil meme....
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@DoombergT
did an excellent piece called "Starvation Diet". These winter wheat results are before the effects of soaring fertilizer prices on crop yields. More pain to come....
From bad to worse - national ratings for US winter wheat sank to lowest level since 2006 & shows the extent of damage from drought gripping states like Kansas, where “critical fire weather conditions” loom ahead.
#Food
@FAO
#Wheat
@YETICapital99
@RussianGrainTra
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Now imagine this chart with:
- Russian oil sanctions coming into effect
- China's economy reopening
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"The money isn't made in the buying or the selling, it's made in the waiting" ~ Charlie Munger
Being contrarian isn't easy but it can be profitable....
"No matter how many times you tell people to zoom out on cyclical sector charts they obsess over short-term noise. Most people can’t stomach the ride to make meaningful returns."
@Geologo_Trader
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"What happens when the world needs OPEC+ oil?"
Price rises until enough demand is priced out of the market and forced to find an alternative or simply do without. The world is not prepared for what comes next ...
Even after OPEC+ cut their production quotas substantially, they are still under-producing by almost 2 million barrels per day. What happens when the world needs OPEC+ oil?
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@Josh_Young_1
@litcapital
Young people in America today want communism. They believe it means they get to play video games all day in their parents basement while the government sends them a check. It doesn't work that way....
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@Josh_Young_1
@WSJ
@staunovo
"Consensus is growing for an idea first proposed by Saudi Arabia that it could pump fewer barrels"
If the market is only figuring this out now I can hardly wait until they grasp what OPEC means when they say 'spare capacity is low and physical supply tight'.....
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@Josh_Young_1
@BisonInterests
@dailydirtnap
"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." ~ Arthur Schopenhauer
We may be entering a major energy crisis but people are not ready to accept this...yet
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On the bullish side of the debate over oil you have
@Josh_Young_1
who's call on OPEC+ spare capacity has been proven to be prescient. On the other side you have Bloomberg Intelligence...and I just going to leave it there....
For a contrasting perspective, check out this recent interview of Bloomberg
#oil
perma bear,
#bitcoin
perma bull
@mikemcglone11
. "In five years we are going to look back and realize we don't need oil anymore" - I doubt it.
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my new favorite energy meme....
Did the US just join the newly formed OPEC++ organization?
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@Josh_Young_1
The Biden Administration has tried this before and I doubt that OPEC+ believes them this time around. This Administration seems to have a limited playbook and I think they are woefully unprepared to deal with the coming energy crisis....
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People assume because today is like yesterday tomorrow will be like today. Global inventory levels continue declining, China reopens, Russian production is declining but everything is ok today so markets assume it will be ok tomorrow. The world is not prepared for what comes next
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Today's food for thought.
Hint: The world is not prepared for what comes next...
"For each Russian barrel lost in 2022, the West added almost 2.6 barrels from emergency stockpiles"
@bloomberg
What happens in 2023 with substantially depleted "emergency stockpiles," lower Russian oil production and China re-opening?
What if OPEC+ cuts more in response?
#oil
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@ericnuttall
With the utmost respect, I can only hope you spent the day speaking with the CEOs of these companies urging them to unleash the buybacks....
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Perhaps impeding domestic production while draining the SPR to the lowest levels in 40 years thus handing control of global energy markets to OPEC during a global energy crisis wasn't the best idea....
If OPEC+ cuts oil production targets again in December, this will be the meme of the month
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Just to clarify...
Markets price equities for a soft/no landing
Markets price oil for a severe recession
These cannot both be correct.....
The emerging theme of a China market recovery seems to conflict with pervasive oil demand pessimism.
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@DoombergT
Quick recap of 2022 so far:
- global energy crisis
- war in Ukraine
- global food crisis
- new outbreak of covid & now potential civil unrest in China
and it is only the beginning of March....
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It's 'almost' funny watching the parade of Hollywood 'stars' and multi-billionaires demanding that YOU take the bus or the subway to work to 'save the planet' while they fly off in their private jets or sail off on their yachts....
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@DoombergT
The idea of building pipelines falls into a category of something called "common sense". Sadly common sense isn't very common in most politicians or we would be building out baseload nuclear & pipelines as fast as possible. Instead we'll start with a few more wind turbines first.
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@DiMartinoBooth
@TwainsMustache
There is clearly a massive disconnect between "those in charge" and society in general....
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It's a tough neighborhood.....
😹😹😹
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"Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said."
@Josh_Young_1
's call on OPEC spare capacity proving prescient....
Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze this year as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC said.
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