Nakamotolisk.eth
@Nakamotolisk
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Systematic Crypto analysis from the 'Lisk's Vault. Social account: @nakamotolisk_in Discord: Nakamotolisk #8882 🤝
Mental Asylum for Cryptosanity
Joined November 2020
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Finally reached $10m net worth 🔥
Started with $50 invested in $DOGE and traded up through SOL, FTM and more recently shorted every local top. Never stop hustling!
So excited I’m giving away 20 $ETH (not joking) to a random anon who likes, follows and retweets this in 24hrs!
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This is making me super bearish. It's even worse on the Bitcoin pair
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Here's a rule for when an altcoin is "done": If the market cap of that altcoin hits 10 million ETH (10% of the ether supply) or 2 million BTC (10% of the Bitcoin supply), You sell it all into ETH or BTC and then if you think the cycle is done sell into fiat. Never touch it again.
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Time in the market is more important than timing the market?
Actually, if you bought ONE Bitcoin when it was first available and sold every cycle top & rebought the lows, you would have $44,000,000 today.
If you just held, you would have $50k, which is a loss of 99.9%.
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This has probably been the worst trading quarter I have ever had in terms of lost gains (I haven't lost any money yet, but I have left life-changing amounts on the table).
It's important that we reflect on our mistakes and make sure we understand the root causes ...
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This is why the smart players like
@GCRClassic
allocated in the June crypto crash despite not knowing how the economic situation would resolve.
It all comes back to information processing. If you know that assets are locally cheap you should express that by buying.
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Someone pointed out via DMs that its unfair to just give $ETH to one winner.
So instead I will give 1 real Ethereum to EVERYONE who follows, likes and retweets, and 20 real Ethereum to one lucky winner.
Plus you will be eligible for any airdrops or paid indicators I release!
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That's it! We've done it! 1k retweets!
Put your address in the comments to THIS tweet.
ONLY put your address. Nothing more. Do NOT DM your address. Do not write anything else.
You MUST be following me. If you are not following, you will be disqualified.
GO! 🚀🚀🚀
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To summarize this long thread
- Trust systems
- Be very selective about what information you are exposed to
- You get paid for processing information, not for copying what other people do.
- If you can't process the info, use probabilities and take smaller positions
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This is a tough time for me. I'm used to trading crypto narratives but macro matters now and I (like most of CT) don't know enough about it.
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I sold again for a small loss at 66.3k
I think the general vibe on CT is arrogant and prime for punishment. I haven't seen it this bad since late 2021.
I think it may be best to just sit in cash for 12 months and do something else because the R/R for me to try to work out
ok I allocated again at 66.8
We got moving averages turning green on the 4hr
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@mikealfred
"Don't worry honey, I put our life savings into HEX, it's staked for 14 years for max APY, Richard Heart won't let us down"
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#Bitcoin
volatility over time IMO tells a cleaner picture than the price.
It's not the price bottom until the volatility bottoms out on high timeframes, and as far as I can tell this will probably happen by October.
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I'm dumping all my $ETH and most of my remaining $BTC
I'll keep 3% allocation to BTC and open a BTC long alt short position to have some exposure to the orange ponzi
95%-97% cash, all in US Dollars.
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Finally reached $10m net worth 🔥
Started with $50 invested in $DOGE and traded up through SOL, FTM and more recently longed every local bottom.
Never stop hustling!
So excited I’m giving away 1 $ETH (not joking) to everyone who likes, follows and retweets this in 24hrs!
To
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Just aped an ETH into $APU
Chart looks good
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Honestly IDK whether they are botting it or it's organic but either way I take it as a moderately bullish sign that there's like 30 replies from $APU 'community' members here
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You need to have systems in place to measure the degree to which a view is consensus and watch for a change from a new trend to stale and mainstream. Because no matter how correct a view is, once it becomes consensus its days are numbered.
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What do you get paid for if you are a trader/investor?
𝐘𝐨𝐮 𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.
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Guys I'm not rich. I have about 30k. Don't message me for charity. I will be 100% brutal in my response.
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Wow! So happy to be able to help that many people with 1 real Ethereum + potential for future NFT airdrops and real utility for EVERYONE who FOLLOWS, LIKES and RETWEETS the OP.
Will leave this open for another 3 days. We'll collect all the addresses at the end of the 4 days!
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8 trades, $0.04 starting capital, the patience of a saint and balls of nuclear-explosion-forged Adamantium.
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The way to make it in crypto is to realize that (almost) all altcoins are scams and all fundamentals are nonsense.
All that matters is tokenomics, users and narrative.
It's liberating to realize this.
Stack ETH and BTC for the long-term and trade in and out of the scams.
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There are a few other pieces of bad information at play
(1) CT belief that there will be a very long accumulation phase for crypto is dangerous. If everyone believes that there will be an accumulation phase of length x, then the obvious game theory is a frontrunning game....
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$APU is legitimately the only altcoin that I have ever gotten any utility out of
$250M market cap for a preloaded music player is not great, but it's infinitely better than any other alt
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If we get to 1k retweets should I make it a 1.5 real Ethereum airdrop to everyone who liked, followed and retweeted the OP?
I will abide by the results of this poll 🫡
No, only 1
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YES! 1.5
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(show results)
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But holding cash at the bottom of bear market rally is a mistake, because it's relatively easy to see that you're at a local bottom and very hard to see whether you're at a global bottom.
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CT's gonna love this: I'm an ETH maxi, I have almost no ETH, the price just pumped on surprise ETF approval rumors
AND
I can't allocate because I'm travelling and away from my trading apps/ledger until late tomorrow
🫡
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Game Theory of Crypto Altcoins
There are two sides - devs (one player) and buyers (infinite series of buyers with different risk appetites)
The Dev launches a coin, call it QANICoin, for Quantum-resistant AI-powered NFT -Inu. Market cap is $200k.
The first buyers are what I
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These people are usually not here to help you, so why give them an information channel into your decisionmaking process?
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Another thing I'll add is I have learned the benefits of the block button. Anyone who is a hindsight hero talking about how they really crushed the market and made loads of money is an insta-block, anyone who is critical or negative - block.
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How can one avoid getting one's mind polluted by anti-information?
I think the only real solution to things like this is to pay more attention to the degree with which a view is new and contrarian than the degree to which it seems correct.
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A lot of altcoins will never come back. "Hodl" doesn't work for alts.
The only "hodl" coins are ETH and BTC.
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This is a mental illness market, I hate it. It's just us, all trading against each other, and whenever everyone gets bearish it pumps and whenever everyone gets bullish it distributes.
Time to DCA and get a job lmao
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I think
@cz_binance
has actually saved crypto.
SBF was a rat and if FTX had survived he would have strangled crypto to death.
It's like LUNA except worse, because SBF was buddies with the regulators and wanted to freeze out all alternatives.
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Prices today are determined by the discounted expected value of future value.
Once the market sniffed out that the Fed had locked in a terminal rate and hiking schedule that wasn't going to go up any more, that was the signal for risk on again.
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Most importantly you need systems that measure what you care about over time and look for trend changes.
The people who got the inflation trade right did that well, whereas I was waiting on CT to tell me that the trade was done. Well, guess what, CT is late and stupid.
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If you're worried about some global effect that will send them back down later, you should hedge that later on.
Why hedge later?
Because it will become more clear later on when to hedge. Events further out are hard to predict.
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If I see
#Ethereum
around $300 I will go all-in and let God take control of my destiny. That's where I think the real bid is.
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Top gainers on ETH bullishness are $MOG, $BRETT and $APU
Market still likes memes
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@cobie
They're implementing a PI controller
Managing the economy is a control theory Problem
You don't want to just guess and yeet it, you want to gradually change the input and observe results.
It's like how you would gradually add hot water to the shower
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This is unironically the point where you need to zoom out
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n.b. the more attention this gets the less likely it is to happen
I don't make the rules
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Imagine if crypto literally never recovers
This scam went ten million percent in a decade if you just held
It has no uses despite huge amounts of dev work
The actual uses it might have in the future are things the government doesn't want to happen
#blackpill
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You take out $10,000 credit card debt to buy crack and hos, at an interest rate of 20%/yr. Your annual payment is $2000.
A few years later, you increase your debt to $20,000 to buy more crack. But the bank likes you so they reduced your credit card debt interest rate to 10%, so
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𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭
You should never be in a trade where you could lose it all.
E.g. if you have a $10k portfolio, you should be OK risking $1000 on a single trade or investment that you are very confident about.
How confident would you have to be?
(🧵)
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OK fam this is incredible! When this gets to 1k retweets I'll start collecting addresses here in the thread for the airdrop. We'll collect them all in the replies to one specific tweet that I'll make in the next day or so.
Let's f*cking GOOOOOOOO!
🚀🚀🚀🚀
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#Bitcoin
can go to $30 million per coin by mid century but still go to $14k by the end of the year
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@DylanLeClair_
@paxful
@raypaxful
This is bearish for Bitcoin IMO. Not a sign of strength.
What BTC really needs to do is be better than ETH, not be jealous of ETH.
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BREAKING: SCIENTISTS IN MEXICO FIND THE BODY OF A MARINE WAITING FOR $LINK TO PUMP
[[Nakamotolisk]]
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Litecoin is going to melt faces. I might have to sell something to buy more of it.
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216k by June 2023
🚀🚀🚀
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2021: $SOL will flip $ETH
2022: $UNI flips $SOL
Get absolutely fuckin rekt L1 bros.
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Imagine we just get a slow bleed for another 12 months.
Dec 2023, BTC is at 11.4k
ETH is at $780
BTC Dominance (excluding stablecoins) is at 70%
Altcoins are down another 70%
💀
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Apparently
@satsdart
went 300×.
Anyone know whether this is larp, and if not how he did it?
Very impressive if true.
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Oh man I just made a killer model. Bottom is in with high probability according to it.
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Look, if I don't post this fractal, someone else will.
10keks to finish the cycle? Same % drawdown as the previous one?
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Just a quick warning to anyone who uses
#Tradingview
:
The $TOTAL2 and $TOTAL3 indices *do* include stablecoins so you should probably never use them.
Instead of $TOTAL3, you should use $TOTAL3-USDT-USDC, as this represents the risk-on altcoins.
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Zooming out, there was a lot of bad info going around, both about what was going to happen and how to handle the uncertainties and the flow of information. I let myself become affected by that and I lost out on huge gains as a result.
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If you expect this cycle to be like the last one and the one before it, we are on a clock now. One final dump within the next 30 days - if that doesn't happen you probably need to delete the red button until 2025
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#Bitcoin
will bottom when people who "stacked sats" in the bull market and held all the way down are lying in a foetal position in their shower sobbing
--
@BuckleUpBrandon
(I tend to agree with this)
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Like it truly is a crypto bull market that's over and is now being dragged upwards against its will by macro
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I have a feeling that the stonk market is about to do -30% in a week.
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I'm getting some incredible stories via DM.
People: if you lost all your money in the bullrun, you're not going to make it back trading this garbage price action.
Get a job (even a job in Crypto), dollar cost average into ETH and BTC and don't be a degenerate.
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It's not about how much more hiking there is, it's about how much more negative information about hikes there is. You can see from the Dec 2022 eurodollar curve how it tracks.
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I have sold a bunch of random alts and a portion of my Bitcoin to get into Dogecoin pretty heavily. I have more Dogecoin than Bitcoin now.
Downside seems pretty capped here and upside is 100x
Take me to the citadel please, Elon.
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And as a further addition, I don't mean any offense to any of the
#Macro
people who were wrong at the bottom. They are offering free educational materials, not financial advice. And they may well prove to be right on longer timeframes...
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