Andrew
@NCRepublican45
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A proud Republican and North Carolinian, Trump 2024
Raleigh, NC
Joined August 2021
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Ron Desantis won this precinct in Miami against Charlie Crist☠️
Hillary+42 in 2016
Biden+22 in 2020
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Way too early West Virginia Senate prediction:
Jim Justice: 57.3%✅
Joe Manchin: 41.8%
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I created a district in the North Atlanta suburbs that shifts from Romney+34 to Biden+4.☠️☠️
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This is the 2016 Election if you add up the Primary Votes on both sides lmao.
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It’s under-discussed how biased LTE is. People get on Red Eagle, but it looks like LTE is nearly just as bad.
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If you gave Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria counties to DC, Virginia would literally become the perfect definition of a swing state. Trump+3.4 in 2016 to Biden+1.5 in 2020.
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This is how Matthews, NC, a small suburban town outside of Charlotte has voted in every Presidential Election since 2000.
2000: Bush+36🔴
2004: Bush+36🔴
2008: McCain+15🔴
2012: Romney+18🔴
2016: Trump+6🔴
2020: Biden+5🔵
How do y'all think this growing suburb votes in 2024?
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How bad to you have to be to almost lose San Diego County as a Democrat in the year 2022 lmao.
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George W Bush’s nationwide approval on November 2nd, 2001(+86) vs George W Bush’s nationwide approval on November 2nd, 2008(-38).
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This is how my hometown, Cary, North Carolina has voted in every Senate race since 1996:
1996: Helms+3🔴
1998: Faircloth+2🔴
2002: Dole+21🔴
2004: Burr+9🔴
2008: Hagan+8🔵
2010: Burr+10🔴
2014: Hagan+10🔵
2016: Ross+13🔵
2020: Cunningham+24🔵
2022: Beasley+31🔵
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This is Mount Vernon where George Washington died, its got quite a weird voting pattern, here's how its voted in major races since 2004:
2004: Bush+21🔴
2005: Kilgore+9🔴
2006: Allen+17🔴
2008: McCain+18🔴
2009: McDonnell+29🔴
2012: Romney+12🔴
2013: Cuccinelli+11🔴
Continued🧵
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This is how Cary, NC, a major suburb of Raleigh has voted in every Presidential Elections since 2000.
2000: Bush+17🔴
2004: Bush+15🔴
2008: Obama+7🔵
2012: Obama+5🔵
2016: Clinton+20🔵
2020: Biden+29🔵
2024??
How much do y'all think Biden will win this rapidly growing City by?
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Since everyone is talking about Haley winning affluent areas like Kiawah Island in a landslide tonight. Here's a reminder that the town moved from Trump+29 in 2016 to Trump+5 in 2020.
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This is how the town of Apex, NC, a rapidly growing suburb of Raleigh in Southwestern Wake County has voted in every Presidential Election since 2000.
2000: Bush+18🔴
2004: Bush+20🔴
2008: Obama+3🔵
2012: Romney+4🔴
2016: Clinton+8🔵
2020: Biden+21🔵
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Bruh, Rubio won by more in Florida than Schmitt did in Missouri☠️☠️
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Well...
Lean R, this could get interesting. Brandon Presley is a very strong candidates for Mississippi.
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This was such a terrible performance for Wexton in what I recall is a Biden+18 seat, and the environment wasn’t even good for Republicans either.
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So apparently Republicans won a countywide office in Biden+14 Forsyth County, literally insane☠️☠️
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There are unironically the 4 counties that keep the NCGOP relevant.
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2014: Gillespie+14🔴
2016: Clinton+5🔵
2017: Gillespie+2🔴
2018: Kaine+15🔵
2020: Biden+4🔵
2021: McAuliffe+3🔵
Happy 4th of July!!🇺🇸 This is America's 247th birthday!
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My prediction in Florida's Senate race:
Marco Rubio:55.4%✅
Val Demings:43.1%
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In last year's November elections, Republican Heidi Sauter Barshinger won her Clerk of Court race by 0.2% against Democrat Graham S. Montrose. Heidi is the last Republican to hold a countywide office in Henrico County.
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The Hispanic vote in North Carolina went from being Biden+15 in 2020 to being Beasley+6 in 2022. Interesting shift there.
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It only took 1 total wipeout of an election(2008) for this statewide party to become competent. Take notes
@AZGOP
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Abbott lost the old TX-24 apparently, its so over for the GOP in DFW.
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This is my way too early Texas Senate prediction:
Ted Cruz: 51.0%✅
Colin Allred: 47.6%
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This is Precinct 001, its a super ancestrally Republican suburb literally right outside of Uptown Charlotte. Heres how its voted in every major election since 2000:
2000: Bush+26🔴
2002: Dole+11🔴
2004: Bush+21🔴
2008: McCain+0.7🔴
2010: Burr+23🔴
2012: Romney+17🔴
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There's a town in Southern Henry County that voted for Trump by 13 in 2016, and Biden by 14☠️☠️. Absolutely insane trends going on in Southern Atlanta. It went from Abrams +1.2 in 2018 to Abrams+23 in 2022. Raffensperger even lost here by 21% last year.
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In 2000, George W Bush carried the 2022 version of NC-14 by 16 points over Al Gore. Narrowly carrying the Mecklenburg County portion, home to Charlotte. Bush carried the Gaston County portion in a landslide. This district voted for Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020.
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My way too early Florida 2024 Senate race prediction:
Rick Scott:52.3%✅
Generic D(TBD):45.8%
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In the 2000 election, Republican George W Bush carried the 2022-Present version of NoVA based VA-10 by 19% over Democrat Al Gore. Bush carried every county that the district covers, including Fairfax County. Joe Biden carried this district by 18% over Donald Trump in 2020.
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These were the final polls leading up to the PA Senate election in 2016
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In 2002, former Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole won Guilford County(home to Greensboro) by about a point. In 2008, when Dole was up for re-election, she lost the county by over 26 points to Kay Hagan, a Democratic State Senator from Greensboro.
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This is how my precinct in Suburban Southern Wake County voted in every Sheriff's race since 1998. This truly shows the GOP's drop-off with educated, suburban voters:
1998:Harrison+17🔴
2002:Harrison+14🔴
2006:Harrison+33🔴
2010:Harrison+50🔴
2014:Harrison+39🔴
2018:Harrison+1🔴
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I think it's so interesting that Bush won the city of Miami in 2000 despite losing Miami Dade County by 6%.
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The fact that Aaron Ford did better in Washoe County than Clark County when he literally lost it in 2018 says a lot about trends in Nevada.
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This is where I think a Trump vs Biden matchup in 2024 stands right now just to be clear.
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Southern Wake County is by far one of the most ancestrally-Republican places in North Carolina, having voted Republican consistently over a long period of time. But, over the past 20-30 years, massive growth has turned this region into a much more liberal, sprawling area.
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Hmmm, I wonder what these states will do in the next election??
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You know I agree, Gavin Newsom is a really strong candidate!! Dems should absolutely run him in 2024!!
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In 2022, Democrat Willie Rowe beat Republican Donnie Harrison in the Wake County Sheriff race by 8%. Donnie Harrison outran Donald Trump's 2020 margin in Wake County by over 18%, and won over many of the suburban areas that Trump collapsed in.
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Theres a part of Apex that voted for Trump in 2016 that proceeded to vote for Beasley by 23 and Wiley Nickel by 25 in 2022☠️☠️
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North Carolina being marginally close to Alabama in 2000 is insane☠️☠️
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My first prediction for the Wisconsin Supreme as of today:
Janet Protasiewicz:51.8%✅
Dan Kelly:48.2%
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The fact that even Bob Dole won Colorado just shows how much things have changed.
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Republicans are about to overtake Democrats in the early vote in Miami Dade County.
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One of the most under discussed results of the 2022 midterms NGL. The absolute drop-off in ancestrally Democrat rural areas.
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So true Laura, redistricting definitely correlates with the Governor election.
Ron DeSantis didn’t “turn” Miami or Palm Beach red.
The state was REDISTRICTED to create the illusion. DeSantis threatened to veto all maps except the one he created w/ his minions so he could help pro-Ron incumbents.
He created a map to favor his own Allie$, & hurt Trump’s.
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My 2022 Senate prediction in Pennsylvania:
Mehmet Oz:49.6%✅
John Fetterman:48.8%
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In 2004, incumbent North Carolina Labor Commissioner, Cherie Berry, also known as the "elevator queen" won re election with bizarre coalitions that would be considered unheard of nowadays.
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Last night Republican Charlotte Councilman Tariq Scott Bohkari won re election to his Biden+21 seat by 1.5% against Democrat Stephanie Hand. He even won precincts that Biden won by 25-30 points in 2020!! Congrats
@FinTechInnov8r
!
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Way too early Pennsylvania 2024 Senate race prediction:
Bob Casey:52.3%✅
Dave McCormick:45.0%
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"People are gonna be so surprised when Arizona moves left of Nevada" Wdym bro it's been that way.
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@ericwn913
Terrible Recession+wars+unifying candidate that is willing to work across the aisle
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The precinct with the Home Alone house voted for Rauner by 20 in 2018. And Biden by like 40 in 2020.
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Winsome Sears somehow did better than Youngkin in Kiggan's district in 2021.
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This is how the coastal town of Duck, located in the outer banks of North Carolina has voted since 2000. This town has a quite an odd voting record.
2000: Bush+13🔴
2004: Bush+15🔴
2008: McCain+5🔴
2012: Romney+6🔴
2016: Clinton+2🔵
2020: Trump+2🔴
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As soon as I thought I couldn't find a proper suburban Biden-Budd precinct in NC. Finally I found one here in suburban Charlotte:
Biden+2.4
Budd+0.1
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In 2000, Bush won the 2022 version of NC-2 by 9% over Democrat Al Gore. Bush's strong margin of victory in this district shows how different urban and suburban politics were in early 2000's North Carolina. Trump lost this district by 22% in 2016 and 29% in 2020.
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Only one Statewide Republican in Kansas won Johnson County this year☠️
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I feel like these 2 elections are proof that Republicans can still win Georgia with the right candidates.
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Happy 1 year anniversary to Pat McCrory, a former Governor of NC, and mayor of Charlotte almost losing Mecklenburg County to some congressman that grew up and lives on a farm.
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Man people love to talk about the WWC shifts in the rust belt, but the swings in WWC Florida areas over the last 2 decades are absolutely insane as well.
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@MaxMaaxMaaax
You can’t even get direct flights from Honolulu to DC, you have to stop in LAX, DFW, and ATL to fly to DC.
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In 2000, Republican George W Bush carried the 2022 version of NC-13 by 15% over Democrat Al Gore. Bush even narrowly carried the Wake portion showing his strength in the ancestrally R Southern Wake County suburbs. In 2020, Joe Biden won this district by 1.8% over Donald Trump.
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Assuming very low turnout in the city, this is what a modern day Republican win would look like in Mecklenburg County I think.
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I love how 2 statewide Republicans in South Carolina won Charleston County this year despite its recent shift to the left.
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North Carolina had an absolutely disastrous Senate delegation from the late 90s until the early 2000s.☠️☠️
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This is how Morrisville, NC, a suburb of Raleigh in Northwestern Wake County, has voted in every Presidential Election since 2000:
2000: Bush+25🔴
2004: Bush+16🔴
2008: Obama+18🔵
2012: Obama+17🔵
2016: Clinton+32🔵
2020: Biden+37🔵
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