The Schedule for February on my Stock Research Platform (Link in Bio):

RT @MnkeDaniel: One-Pager on The Psychology of Money:

@gruust 😂😂

@_taylorirwin Spot on!

@JJPeraltaa That's exactly why most valueninvsagors are not in those companies

@lapplandtrader @BodenPJ Fair, and I respect your opinion. You may have more knowledge about this than I do 🤷🏼‍♂️ Let's see how it turns out.

@QualityGrowth_ Fortunately, I just bought, so my position is not down yet 😅 From experience with $BABA, I know that helps with being neutral.

@lapplandtrader @BodenPJ I also do not want to seem like someone who doesn't see any risks in this name. Another big one is the concentration of customers and the little information we have about this. Those are risks that can change my estimate of risk quickly and drastically.

@OverthehedgeL Thank you, I will!

@KaakalShukran Valid point!

I don't think I'm doing that. We’re just coming to different conclusions. Mine is that this will cause more governments to legalize the market (the reasons are in the article). Yours, if I understand correctly, is that it will hurt the company. And the truth is already out and always has been. EVO reports their revenue mix between regulated and irregulated.

China is my major risk factor (as mentioned in the article). To my knowledge, most Asian revenues do not come from China, though, and there is a general trend towards legalization in Asia (see Philippines, Singapore). However, China is the first country I'd expect to introduce "lose-lose" regulation that benefits the black market and is disadvantageous for the state and consumer (and probably EVO) just to keep the narrative of "being active against crime." I say "probably EVO" because they have operated in these markets for years, and there is no issue with it from a legal standpoint. However, that could change at any time. What I dislike most about this (which also applies to other investments in China) is that the more successful the business is, the more it will be scrutinized by the CCP. Also, the problem with black markets is what EVO is experiencing right now in Asia - the cyber attacks. I'd think you could handle that a lot easier in a regulated market. In a black market, there is no one to help you with that.

I know where you come from and mentioned the "sin stock" factor in my article. However, I can live with that since black markets are much more dangerous and disadvantageous for societies. And stopping demand is unrealistic (look at the numbers). So, legalizing is the best option. Don't get me wrong, it is a factor in EVO's valuation. I just think you get compensated well for that factor at these prices. Also, it didn't matter to investors for years, just as it doesn't matter to companies like McDonald's, which has made this society the unhealthiest of all time. Now that some headlines (regarding other topics) are there, people suddenly find their consciousness (not aimed at you or anyone, really) 😅

Here's the article:

I meant China in my response. I agree with you on Russia, although I don’t have numbers on the Russian market. That's the uncertainty involved in EVO. Otherwise, you don't buy that business at 12x P/E. At these prices, I consider the risk/rearward positive. What I meant by “what do you think will happen” is: What do you think will change so that, for example, Russian revenues stop? It has been illegal for quite some time. Who has an incentive to stop that? As you mentioned, lots of businesses still have business there. Also: Do you have numbers on EVOs Russia exposure? (generally curious) I couldn't find anything about material exposure to that region.

That's why I didn't mention some things in too great detail. Of course, I mentioned the UK investigation (but UK is 3% of revenues, and EVO is cooperating) I mentioned the risks of black and grey markets, but I don't see the regulation or action yet that kills these markets for EVO. Either they’re getting sued (worst case), the markets legalize (probably lower margins but generally good, also depends on the type of regulation), or things remain the same. I don't yet see the material risk (besides legal action directly against EVO), but if someone has a valid point I'm overlooking, I'd love to hear it and update my article.

@BodenPJ But could you go into the details? What do you think think will happen to these markets so there are no customers anymore? These markets are currently grey or black and customers and revenues still exist (and higher margins as you mentioned; I also mentioned that in my article)

@lapplandtrader @BodenPJ I know and included that in my article of course. My question was more towards his you think that materially affects the business in the long-term.