Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate
@MarkCranfield_
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10year+ manager of £20 million risk fund. Legal insurance risk assessor for 26 years. 55yo #BLM 🌈+ ally. 🚫No DMs
Bristol, England 🇬🇧
Joined January 2014
FEMA:. “If you’re waiting for the federal government or somebody else to help you that help may or may not come. “So I always tell people, this is a tough line to tell people, ‘Take responsibility for your own disaster recovery.’”.
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PRO LIFE! JUST KILLED 200,000 PEOPLE! VOTE!
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This looks bad but humans will go extinct over the next 40 or 70 years. The last person on Earth may have already been born.
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"Save the planet" is literally 40 years behind the curve.
In 1985 scientist Dean Abrahamson testifies that "vigorous" work would have to start immediately to have any hope of limiting warming to 5°C. Since then emissions have more than doubled. 4°C is beyond extinction level warming for humans. 3 years later, in 1988, the IPCC was
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The end of the world is going to come as a severe shock to millions of people who think nature can be restored amidst the convulsions of extreme climate disruption and the 6th mass extinction, the worst such event in 550 million years of complex life on earth.
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We're not in a climate emergency or a climate crisis. That was 30+ years ago. Now we're in an event. Every living thing on earth has to survive this event as long as possible. That's everyone's job now.
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I'm a 25y prof risk assessor, I've dealt with uncertainty my whole career. There's no uncertainty about climate change. The CO₂ now in the air eventually creates a 4°C planet (paleoclimatology). The other GHGs add further warming. Most of the warming occurs within a century.
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I wonder if it would be useful in raising awareness to stop calling it climate change and call it the apocalypse instead.
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Glaciologist Eric Rignot confirms that the whole of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is committed to unstoppable melt. In the Q&A he also confirms that Greenland is irreversible. Full video:
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This is what a mass death event might look like if the electricity/air conditioning fails.
Dubai recorded a heat index of 144°F (62.2°C) today at 3 PM. The heat index is currently 129°F (53.9°C) at 5 AM local time. Life-threatening heat.
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Hands down the best cartoon. Everyone thinks there's more time than there is.
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We're almost certainly less than 5 years, and possibly less than 5 months, away from some kind of global disaster. We're certainly less than 15 years, most likely less than 10 years and possibly less than 5 years away from global societal collapse, religious fervour and outright.
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In 1985 scientist Dean Abrahamson testifies that "vigorous" work would have to start immediately to have any hope of limiting warming to 5°C. Since then emissions have more than doubled. 4°C is beyond extinction level warming for humans. 3 years later, in 1988, the IPCC was
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Hell on earth is coming. That's my professional risk assessment.
It’s so crazy how far above record levels the North Atlantic is (the entire Atlantic too actually). This is the sea surface temperature departure from average each March since 1940.
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Everyone seems excited about the snow, blissfully unaware that these are the last years of civilisation.
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A rare admission by a scientist that net zero wouldn't be enough should be front page news. He says we'd also need to remove 150ppm CO2-equivalent from the air, which equates to 1,180 billion tonnes of CO2. 1 billion tonnes equates to 3,000 Empire State Buildings. He says the
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@sajidjavid @jeremycorbyn Did shameless Sajid just use a Jewish celebration to get at Jeremy Corbyn? Yes (and sadly) he did.
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The ice sheets are already completely gone but in the future. "But we can't be certain about the future!" cry the denialists. Well, actually yes we can. As a risk assessor I know this as well as anyone. It's called physics. When we drop a ball it hits the ground a million times.
“It is ‘virtually certain’ that future extreme events in Antarctica will be worse than the extraordinary changes already observed, according to a new scientific warning.”
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Here's what humanity needs to be focused on like a laser beam. Crucially, it's easy for a layperson to understand. 2C is *inevitable* by around 2040. James Hansen says by the late 2030s. The land surface warms 50%+ more than the global average, which means we are facing an.
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It's going to feel like getting hit by an asteroid. There's nothing we can do about that. Civilisation will collapse chaotically over the coming years. Ultimately this collapse will not be easy to survive. We must alleviate as much suffering as possible by acting NOW. Thread.
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It doesn't matter what humanity does or doesn't do. It doesn't matter if there's no new oil and gas or even if impossible net zero is achieved. It doesn't matter if there's a Great Awakening of human consciousness and everyone pulls together with all their might. Forget.
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If warming stopped at 1.5C it would soon be hell on earth, loss of food and water supplies and coastal cities. 2C is inevitable within the next 15 years or so. Societies and global civilisation can't possibly withstand the next 5, 10, 15 years. Total eventual equilibrium.
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Just Stop Oil needs to bring London to a complete standstill to try to get some awareness going. We need these brave activists and we need them to succeed. Please support them in any way you can.
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Please don't be intimidated by the length of the list. Stored water and a 10kg bag of rice is much, much better than nothing. Food and water is by far the most important.
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How many people on Earth understand that the current GHG concentrations (nothing to do with future emissions) mean that human extinction within around 50 or 60 years is a certainty of physics? .
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The belief that the climate can be stabilised below 1.5C or 2C is a *religious* belief. It's impossible in the real world, where 400ppm of CO2 produces a 3C+ planet. No other outcome is possible within the laws of physics governing this universe.
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Of all the graphs and stats this is probably the worst. This is the graph that tells us definitively that it's all over. There's no way to get the heat energy out of the oceans. It will keep inexorably warming the oceans, raising sea levels, and warming the atmosphere and
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There is no hope. That's not a decision I've made. There's no hope because there is no hope. The possibility of hope is incompatible with 1.1 trillion tonnes of atmospheric CO2 plus other GHGs which heat this planet to 10°C above preindustrial. It's not an IQ test. Absence of.
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Our situation is almost comically easy to understand.
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Human world: Thunberg calls for overthrow of capitalism. UN calls for rapid transition of societies. Activists call for no new oil. Actual world: El Nino by 2024 will instantaneously change the global mean from 1.2C to ~1.5C in a kind of singularity never before experienced.
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Arguably the saddest quote ever. "We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back."
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Here's an example draft script that activists can use in interviews or documents to explain the reality of our current situation. The world's best scientist James Hansen has confirmed that 2C is baked in by 2050. This is supported by the latest computer modelling which shows.
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When will people wake up? What will it take? Starvation, being cooked alive, drowning in floodwater?. I'll spell it out as simply and clearly as possible. Climate policy doesn't matter. I'll repeat that, climate policy does not matter. If you're sat there thinking about 'net.
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When I was researching climate change, it was like peeling an onion. That period was surreal to me, not least because the picture that emerged never got better, it always got worse. There was never any good news, at least not anything meaningful. It was always bad news and.
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There is STILL not a single scientist, journalist, activist, environmentalist or politician who understands what's happening. That is beyond belief and terrifying.
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Hardly anyone seems to be aware that we are in a rapidly vanishing one-time-only window to try to protect ourselves and prepare for disaster. This is extraordinary, a testament to the relentless bombardment of fossil fuel hopium propaganda amounting to psychological warfare.
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When people don't realise that the near-term collapse of civilisation is an inevitability of physics, it's only possible because of the most extreme absence of consciousness and situational awareness. This energy warms the oceans like a flame under a pot. It melts snow and ice
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This is 1985, when climate change might have been legitimately described as a crisis or an emergency and when action against fossil fuels and banks might have been useful. Watch for Dean Abrahamson, who testifies that it would practically take a miracle to keep warming to no
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Do people understand what's happening?. There is no mitigating this. There is no adapting to this. The energy already in the system and GHGs already in the air mean humanity is going to get obliterated. We are sitting ducks. We need to prepare for the battle to survive.
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On the left, James Hansen confirms that the eventual equilibrium temperature for 560ppm CO2 including slow feedbacks is ~6°C. On the right, Andrew Glikson confirms that the current CO2 equivalent is at least 563ppm. Make no mistake, this means this planet is committed to 6°C+
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"warming by 2030 will be about 1.71°C. Global warming of 2°C will be reached by the late 2030s, i.e., within about 15 years.". This is beyond any human comprehension but Dr Hansen's team doesn't even try to comprehend it. It's a thing of unbelievable horror on the scale of a.
Global warming is accelerating as atmospheric pollution declines. We must continue critical observations, so that young people have the knowledge required for wise decisions. See Acceleration of Warming —
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Nothing I can say can possibly convey how doomed we are as a civilisation and a species. It can't be communicated and even if it could be communicated it couldn't be understood by our small human brains. We are so unfathomably out of our depth that we don't even know which way is.
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James Hansen: "Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone - after slow feedbacks operate - is about 10°C.". 1,100 billion tonnes of human CO2 already in the atmosphere *weighs more than everything on Earth built by humans* and heats this planet to ~6°C. The other
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It's 189 days (6 months 7 days) since the world's best climate scientist told us that the current GHGs in the air heat the Earth to around 10°C. Nothing has changed. Everyone is ignoring it like it's just more fake news instead of the most important news of all time.
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Hansen is deadly serious when he compares climate change to a giant asteroid. But what scientists have failed to do is tell the public that the asteroid can't be avoided. The thousands of atom bombs of heat exploding in the oceans warm the oceans over time, which drives global.
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The jump from 1C to 1.2C from the 2015/16 El Nino was catastrophic, the difference between night and day. There are 4 such jumps from now to get to 2C, which is coming in the 2040s as an inevitability of physics. The land surface warms ~50% more than the global average, and.
New York.Smoked out in the summer.Flooded out in the fall.And that's at 1.2C average. At 2C - "the safe limit" - won't the place be abandoned?.That's what happens when you totally fuck up on the maths.
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Many people must think I've been exaggerating when I say plastic is an extinction event for humans.
Microplastics found in every human testicle in study. - Scientists say discovery may be linked to decades-long decline in sperm counts in men around the world. #microplastics #plastics.Story by me.
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When all the garbage, misinformation, propaganda, bullshit etc is cast aside, we're left with an appallingly simple situation. 2C is baked-in by 2050 says Hansen. Ramanathan says 'by 2045'. Latest climate models say 2043. IPCC range starts at 2041. 2C global = 3C+ on land, up.
If we get to 2C.we will QUICKLY get to 4C anyway because of the tipping points and feedbacks. HANS JOACHIM SCHELLNHUBER.German atmospheric physicist.Father of the term 'tipping points'. #ClimateEmergency
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When I talk about the apocalypse over the next 5, 10, 15 years, it's not exaggeration or hyperbole. This is the brutal reality that humanity is facing. water,.food,.loss of electricity and fossil fuel supply,.extreme weather especially sterilising
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When articles tell us that the last time CO2 was at today's level the earth was 3C warmer and seas were 15-25m higher, it's not designed as an IQ test. They're telling us what's going to happen.
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It's 301 days (9 months, 27 days) since the world's best climate scientist James Hansen announced that the rate of global warming has rocketed 50%–100% from 2010 and that the greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere heat this planet to 10°C above preindustrial. This is by.
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I'm providing accurate information about the inevitable end of the world. As far as I can tell, no one else is doing this. I'm very grateful to the people who listen. It's heartbreaking that so many people are unable or unwilling to recognise this authentic, critical resource.
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It's a mystery.
Something very strange is happening to tornadoes across the US. And scientists are baffled - BBC Science Focus Magazine
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It's clear that the human brain in general is unable to conceive of, let alone accept, a situation which can only ever keep getting worse and over which humans can't exert any control. The absence of control over the climate seems to be literally unthinkable to many people. 1.2C
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The whole world is stuck in a time loop in the 1980s when climate change was a crisis. Since then CO2 emissions have doubled. Now there's 260 zetajoules of ocean heat. Sea ice is 75% gone. Earth's energy imbalance is 1 million atom bombs a day. Sea rise won't stop for centuries.
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Everyone underestimates climate impacts. The current 1.2C eventually destroys food and water supplies and coastal cities. It's easily possible that 1.2C could halve the human population.
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It's understandable but still many people are not getting it. The CO2 now in the air, which weighs more than everything on Earth built by humans, heats this planet to around 6°C above preindustrial. Nothing can stop it. Humans are extinct by 4°C, possibly long before 4°C.
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An estimated date of 30 June has been put on Mexico City (pop 22.5 million) running out of water. It's already having to be trucked into some areas.
Monkeys have been dropping dead out of trees in Mexico as savage #heatwave intensifies. Risk of a mass human fatality heat event fast increasing, either in Mexico or a number of other at-risk regions.
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How bad is climate change in reality?. Collapse of industrial civilisation over the next 5, 10, 15 years. Rapid loss of hundreds of millions of lives. Total human extinction sometime between 2060 and 2100. This isn't hyperbole, this is the plain reality.
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It can't be stopped. It can't even be slowed down. 2C by around 2040 is locked in. That's a rate and magnitude of warming that will destroy modern societies. There's no time left, but people need to be protected. What action do we need to take?.
🚨 BREAKING: HEATHROW AIRPORT PAINTED ORANGE. 🧯 Phoebe and Jane have covered the departure boards in terminal five in orange paint, as part of the international uprising with @_oilkills. 🛢️ Demand our government Just Stop Oil by 2030 —
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Listen carefully, this will change your life. The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere heat this planet to 10 degrees Celsius above preindustrial. Read it again. Keep reading it until you can feel nothing else.
James Hansen's original paper from Dec 2022 and the peer reviewed version. "Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C.". "decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of
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James Hansen's original paper from Dec 2022 and the peer reviewed version. "Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C.". "decline of aerosol emissions since 2010 should increase the 1970–2010 global warming rate of
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Can it be slowed down?. The planet is in extreme imbalance. The equilibrium temperature for the GHGs in the air is ~10°C above preindustrial. We're currently at 1.2C. The earth will drive hard, accelerating towards its equilibrium, as demanded by physics. We're currently in an.
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Do people understand the point of what I'm doing on twitter?. Horrendous, catastrophic climate impacts are almost here *which cannot be avoided*. The alarm needs to be raised. We are sitting ducks. We need to defend ourselves and our children. But Nothing Is Happening.
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Outlining what climate change means for people. All this before 2040. Millions of homes will crack open and fall apart. Bridges, roads and train routes will melt and crumble, meaning supplies are unable to reach desperate people. With surprising rapidity, aviation will have to
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We're on an exploding planet. There's no off switch. It will never stop getting hotter. Human extinction is a statistical certainty. The chances of any human surviving this event is 0.0. Not even 1 in a trillion. The rate and magnitude of warming is enough to make large mammals.
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When James Hansen works out that the eventual warming caused by fast feedbacks in response to today's GHGs is 4.8 degrees C;. that the total eventual warming including 'slow' feedbacks is 10C;. and that a drop in Earth's reflectivity has caused a 50% to 100% increase in the rate.
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It can't be overstated. Being doomed isn't a choice. It's not a personal decision. Everyone is doomed, every man, woman and child on this Earth. We're as doomed as anything has ever been in the history of this planet, multiplied by several orders of magnitude. The only difference.
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ClimateScam is trending. We're living in Idiocracy. The actual ClimateScam is not that climate change is a hoax or that it's been exaggerated, it's that the true situation is orders of magnitude worse than the public has been told it is.
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OK I'll spell it out. OUR CIVILISATION WILL COLLAPSE WITHIN 15 YEARS. No, going on a war footing doesn't matter. Trying really, really hard doesn't matter. Cutting emissions doesn't matter. It can't be stopped. It can't be slowed down. It's accelerating and it's nearly here.
Many people are looking at this and thinking it's just another post. It's not just another post. I'm a senior risk assessor informing the public. Everyone needs to read and understand this thread. It's critical information.
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Our fossil fuel civilisation was doomed from the start. No matter how slowly we burned the fuels, the GHGs would have accumulated in the atmosphere and eventually destroyed our civilisation. People believe so fiercely that there are alternatives to fossil fuels, but there simply.
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Everything we take for granted will be gone. Be grateful for everything, savour it, cherish it. The wonder of going to McDonald's or anywhere. Go on vacation, spend time in nature.
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I wasn't always a doomer. I didn't always know we were doomed. It was a lengthy process. It was peeling an onion. I went through believing every solution before arriving at the awful truth. I clearly recall *knowing* that carbon taxes was a big part of the solution. One of the.
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The doomers are the only people who are right. Absolutely 100% correct, as opposed to absolutely 100% wrong. I'm not talking about the apocaloptimists, I'm talking about the people who understand as a fact that we're doomed. In time, everyone else will be catching up, though.
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It seems to be everywhere. Ocean stratification is much stronger than generally recognised by the scientific community, which means that heat energy doesn't mix into the deeper ocean as quickly as in the models. More energy stays in the upper ocean, warming the upper layer over.
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It's outrageous to say that it's a choice to fail. Basic physics makes climate stabilisation impossible, nothing to do with how hard we try. The staggering amount of energy already absorbed by the oceans, inexorably warming the Earth over time, assures our destruction. The GHGs.
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Global warming is now a rocket taking off. Nothing slow about it. Next El Nino will probably add 0.3C global, which is 0.45C or 0.5C on land. Half a degree, overnight. Much more regionally. This could break civilisation like an egg, but it's one step to 3C+ on land in the 2040s.
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By around 2040 (2°C), conservatively half the world's population will be subject to lethal heatwaves. Much of Southern Europe will be desert. The public has no idea of what's happening.
“The study also warned that levels of extra warming projected to hit Europe by 2035 would amplify food inflation by 30-50%.”
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If you only understand one thing about climate change. We aren't destroying the planet in real time. We have already destroyed it in the future due to what has happened in the past. This is cause and effect, with long delays in between in an unfathomably complex, planet-sized.
"There's a lag. If you turn on the oven at home and set it to 200C, it doesn't reach that (level) immediately. It's the same for climate.". "The reason we don't see Pliocene-like temperatures and sea-levels yet today is because it takes a while for Earth's climate to fully.
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No one is talking about it, but the next El Nino 2024 will be the most significant event so far in our civilisation's history, and that's including WW2.
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There is no f*cking hope. None whatsoever. Hope is the fat guy sat watching TV eating pizza waiting for someone else to fix it. The rate of warming has massively accelerated and is still accelerating. The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere cause a 10C planet. Hope in.
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Don't shoot the messenger, I didn't write it. I don't make the physics.
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This is a planet. There are no refunds, no return tickets. There's no catching up on missed homework. No realising we've made a terrible mistake and taking it back. The Earth has no pity for us, it's not interested in our regrets. We're near the start of a slow motion planetary.
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In the years to come, the failure to prepare for inevitable climate impacts when we had a chance will be the most painful regret. People will be stunned that we spent years farting around, doing literally anything else.
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Hardly anyone understands the scale of the misleading, itself almost beyond comprehension. Our civilisation has, at most, less than 15 years left, and very possibly less than 10.
HUGE: @SenWhitehouse & @RepRaskin just formally referred the findings of their investigation into Big Oil's climate lies to DOJ. The lawmakers found "a continuing pattern of the fossil fuel industry knowingly and deliberately misleading the public through an ongoing enterprise."
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The human species is just 40 to 80 years away from total extinction and the world is completely oblivious.
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The next El Nino is the biggest red flashing advanced warning sign in human history. It will hit us and keep hitting us in less than 2 years from now. But is anyone talking about it?.
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Once a person understands just a few earth-shattering realities, it changes everything. - the amount of GHGs in today's atmosphere means that the Earth is required by the laws of physics to warm by a further 9 degrees C in order to achieve energy equilibrium (as much energy
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James Hansen. No ifs, buts or maybes. "Global warming of 2C will be reached by the late 2030s, ie within about 15 years.". That equates to 3C+ on land, up from 1.8C. Regional averages will be much hotter. And it's not just Hansen. It's climate modelling, the IPCC, V.
“We must get it out of our heads that this is a doomed time, that we are waiting for the end, and the rest of it … Things are grim enough without these shivery games … We love apocalypses too much.”
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I'm a risk assessor. Our situation is appalling but very simple. It's not physically possible for societies to make it to 2040 due to the extreme rate of global warming. Societies need to prepare for imminent, inevitable, catastrophic environmental destruction. No other action.
Suppressing the fear of death not only explains the obsessions of consumer industrial societies, but it also explains why some people become angry with those of us who conclude such societies are breaking down. Many green tech professionals and climatologists need a crash course.
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It's so rare to see climate truth in print. It almost never happens. "This is going to be the very worst thing that mankind has ever experienced, and we need to prepare ourselves.". "But in order to know that such uprising is necessary, it has to become part of the public
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Pathological optimism isn't a useful trait for humanity because it distracts people from the need to prepare/adapt to inevitable catastrophe. In fact, that's the purpose of the fossil fuel propaganda that maintains false hope. It distracts the public from the incoming asteroid
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It took me a long time to realise that Earth Overshoot Day means the apocalypse is coming.
August 1st is Earth Overshoot Day. In just 7 months, we've used more resources than our planet can regenerate in a year. We need 1.75 Earths to sustain current consumption levels. 🌍📉 #EarthOvershootDay #Sustainability
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Human extinction is a certainty of physics on a planet rocketing to its ~10C equilibrium. There's no way to get the human CO2 that weighs more than everything on Earth built by humans out of the atmosphere. We've had our time. Humanity's number is up. Like all other species,.
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It's hard to be any more precise but as far as I can tell humans are most likely to go extinct between 2060 and 2080. Due to the extreme rate of warming, civilisation will collapse over the next 5, 10, 15 years. This is the apocalypse. It's why societies need to prepare.
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How bad will it get? I'm sorry, it will get all the way bad. This is a Permian-like mass extinction event but 500 times faster, plus ubiquitous habitat destruction and toxification by Satanic (I use the word carefully) bioaccumulative chemicals that never break down. Even.
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Well this popped up, just saying that analysis of sea sponge skeletons shows that we're now at 1.7C, not 1.2C. That means we're now in the process of warming past 2C. Sponge skeletons v. $100 million supercomputers?. Get ready to bet on the sponge.
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Big T . Big Turd. Big Temper. Big Tragedy. Big Trainwreck. Big Threat. Big Theft. Big Tit. Big Tummy. Big Thug. Big Teller of Lies. Big Totalitarian. Big Taliban role model. What a Big Twat.
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So many people have absolutely no idea what's coming. They believe it's all a load of BS. They don't have the brainpower to figure anything out for themselves. The literal Greek translation of 'apocalypse' is revelation.
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