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@FoliusVentures @bidclubio @CarnegieMellon
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Pinned Tweet
The race to become the de-facto Steam / Animoca on $TON starts now, and we like
@CatizenAI
as the current frontrunner.
Read Folius Report here (EN):
----------
After spending time on Telegram x $TON, it’s becoming clear to us that in the next 3-6
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0 – Are there ways to stabilize in-game FX & make P2E economies more sustainable?
@0xAikoDai
& I came up w/ 10 ideas esp. for games w/ heavy PvE + dual tokens. These ain’t no panacea – just our opinions & hope to inspire developers exploring the fog of war.
Threadoooor below:
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(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The
#DeFi
space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader
#valuenet
and ETH-based
#DeFi
/
#WallstreetAPI
. As usual, would appreciate any feedback!
Link:
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(0) As per requested, I spent some weekends putting together my basic framework on the $ETH + $DeFi space. Would greatly appreciate your feedback as it’s the sole purpose of putting the deck out there -- should be pretty timely as the space heats up
Link:
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Recently, an internal excel document from Huobi (one of the BPs) is circulating in the Chinese community. This file documents the collusion, mutual voting, and pay-offs that occur amongst the Chinese BP community. I’ m working on getting the file.
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It’s been 4-5 days since the Gas Hero (GH) launch and I now feel comfortable putting this out as reality matches my model – I believe $GMT is reversing its historically poor emission dynamic (of 1-1.5 mm GMT sold per day) into net-sink imminently, whereby every 10k DAU = 1-1.5 mm
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在上海差不多呆了5个月，见了很多相当优秀的Web2转Web3 App创业者。聊聊最近想法，轻喷。Elon把Thread限流了很不爽，委屈大家看长文了。
- USD支付已经是行业内最强应用了。让用户用USDX做买卖依然是扩大用户基数最好方案，绝大多数人玩不转自己的utility
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0 - As popularly requested, this will be a thread about $NXM. The token design of $NXM is one of the most elegant I have seen yet. Enough good work had been done by
@krugman25
,
@Darrenlautf
,
@BatmanDeFi
on bonding curves and core mechanics so I won’t repeat here.
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国内的朋友们勿需妄自菲薄。Web3的下一个章节应将由B2C应用写就，而这恰恰是亚太工程师优势所在。
下个一个10年的发展，亚太尤其是中国人必然不会缺席，而且会大放异彩。
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Presented without comments ahead of the $COIN listing when compared to a small subset of exchange tokens / DEX's out there. Am I making any glaring errors? (TVL / Volume / Fee / token data are all eyeballed).
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0 - It’s been a long time coming. Today I am announcing
@FoliusVentures
/ 一叶创投 dedicated to investing in, evangelizing, and buidling the Web3 future w/ a global mandate (APAC focus to start).Ping me on twitter / Telegram with the same handle if you wanna jam!
My latest - ParaFi, Dragonfly back new investment venture aimed at Web3 and APAC
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Out of curiosity I mapped out $QUICK and it actually looks...cheap? Assuming $MATIC momentum continues on-boarding other protocols $QUICK could pull what $CAKE pulled for $BNB.
$QUICK-$MATIC yielding 100% trading fee + 50-70% $QUICK inflation reward.
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0 - I feel strongly that well-organized, cleverly incentivized, vertical-focused DAOs that understands capital markets will meaningfully outperform generalists and even any individuals in their niche, and many are best served joining them vs. trying to beat them.
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Hot $UNI takes
- Initial reaction is dump $UNI into your favorite token across (long best DEFI coins)
- 2nd reaction is long ETH as alts take-profit + buy to farm $UNI.
- 3rd reaction is ETH based farms likely higher yield given ETH goes to $UNI pool (percent & pickle to name 2)
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(0) I lean towards believing we had a paradigm shift for $BTC demand given news from China. Similar to how halving step-function reduces demand, CCP officially making blockchain a strategic pillar = step-function in demand creation that permeates into ecosystem in next 1-2 years.
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关于，欧美圈子玩到飞起，而这阵风暂时还没完全登陆亚洲。就此我们根据目前搜集到的信息加上我们的判断，写就关于这个产品的短篇以便讨论一下其背后火热的逻辑+未来可能的演化态势，以飨读者。
详情请见中文版本：
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0 - As I delve beyond the ETH ecosystem as local
#DeFi
token circulating market caps soared (200-500 mm), $LUNA by
@terra_money
at ~160 mm USD market cap really stood out to me not only as an interesting VC bet, but also as a solid counter-weight to all the native craze.
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0 - As per popularly requested & at risk of repetition, here is my framework on $YFI. A lot of good work done by
@DefiGod1
,
@im_manderson
, and
@learn2yearn
already. I will try on a higher-level flesh out what all the hype is all about. If I have higher IQ, it'd be shorter.
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I'm looking for a Research Partner to help buidl
@FoliusVentures
together.
If you an ex-founder / prop / HF / big tech / degen ready to explore everything out there in Web3, this is for you.
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Just catching up on the $LUNA ecosystem... man, what a constellation
@d0h0k1
's team built.
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0 – As per popularly requested, here’s my preliminary thoughts on the $LEND / $AAVE 2.0 tokeneconomics restructuring, with the #’s based on
@The3D_
‘s proposal at
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We are excited to lead the 10 mm A2 financing round for Matr1x, which in our opinion can be one of the fastest horses in reaching sizable DAU as a Web3-enabled game as early as 1H24. For those interested, here’s a full deck on our thesis:
Folius Matr1x Deck:
🚀BANG BANG BANG! We've hit a monumental $10M in our A-2 funding round, skyrocketing our total to $20M. A rousing welcome to our new allies -
@FoliusVentures
,
@SevenXVentures
,
@ABCDELabs
,
@fslweb3
(makers of
@stepnofficial
&
@gasheroofficial
) ,
@initiatecapital
, and
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Good work by
@Lucas
; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀
Things are heating up between Sushiswap and Uniswap
Both have billions in liquidity
Both facilitating billions in volume
This is the DEX title fight
Here's how they stack up against each other 🧶
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A sector rotation into DEFI is happening - where tokeneconomics actually make sense:
- KNC - AMM
- SNX - Synthetic casino
- LEND - Flash loans
- MKR - Collateralize loans
- KAVA - MKR on Cosmos / DOT
- RUNE - Eross-chain uniswap
- ZRX - Dex
- LRC - L2 Dex
- REN - Hidden orderbook
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(0) $LEO’s token economics remain one of the most interesting (and bullish) out there in the market today. At 10 Bn run-rate monthly traded volume, 0.3% take-rate, and 27% towards buyback, this translates to roughly 100 mm / yr towards token burn.
@zhaodong1982
@zhusu
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I think what's been missing in the ETH/BTC ratio discussion in the west (
@NorthRockLP
's recent tweet is gud and summarizes) is that BTC gets another kicker of inflow via BRC20 / Ordinals.
People actually ape this stuff and it's predominantly Asia especially China. My wechat
BRC20 Mega Thread
Last Bull Market we saw DeFi and NFTs produce insane returns for people who were early investors in these sectors.
This Cycle one of those narratives could be BRC20 which is still in its birth. Why? Because it’s new Bitcoin Technology and a Bitcoin ETF is
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FTX indicated Coinbase $CBSE pricing at ~$388 / share, that's close to ~$97 Bn USD market cap. At that valuation it's worth $ICE (which owns NYSE) and Nasdaq ($NDAQ) combined.
Make of it what you will.
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I need a Web3 app that:
- shows me all events at a conference
- allows nft-gated /whitelist sign-up
- shows frens are going
- sync w/ calendar
- event notification & chat
- allows nft drop + QR code entry
Plz save me from this calendar / eventbrite / telegram / google sheet hell
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Being a core part of an emerging DAO today could be similar to being employee
#1
-10 of FAANG 15-25 years ago.
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(0) Since our Feb 22 report & many Qs later,
@0xAikoDai
& I felt it's time to share our latest thinking around Web3 x Gaming again – namely In-app taxation now as a fitting biz model, paired w/ 10 tentative ideas around sustainability, & our hypothetical game as an example.
👇🧵
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I think you guys shouldn't count out the possibility of ETH ETF potentially getting more flow than est. of15-20% BTC ETF AUM. Not a likely case but you may want to consider:
- Equity market cap as a whole much larger than gold / bitcoin, justification for business > store of
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How $NFTX financialized NFTs is rather clever. Wrapping ERC-721 into divisible ERC-20 tokens is basically issuing NFT-backed-tokens (similar to ABS) which can interact with broader
#DeFi
ecosystem. Price of said ERC-20 represents a rough median market-clearing px of underlying.
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The flywheel in $GMT dictates that:
- if Gas Hero is a success (pending Dec 23 launch), a lot of $GMT will be locked-up / staked (for meta game) and burned (for progression)
- the beta in crypto + demand dynamic above driving GMT upward can hopefully offset inflationary pressure
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Viewing 2% of people owning 98% of the wealth as “wealth inequality” is classic old-paradigm thinking. The new paradigm is 2% of the people owning 120% of the wealth, while the remaining 98% of people carry 120% debt to asset (I.e. negative 20% net-worth)
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He's technical, and he's crypto-native. But use-case / business-model beats technicality, and GTM / execution beats nativeness, and that's what you will see in the next phase of Web3.
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AMZN - everything store but no self-owned storefront
Uber - "taxi" network but no self-owned cars
Airbnb - "hotel" network but no self-owned buildings
#DeFi
- everything finance but no self-operated balance sheet
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We are delighted to announce the promotion of
@0xAikoDai
to Venture Partner at Folius. Aiko has been a driving force behind our success, bringing passion, dedication, and unparalleled expertise to our team. Her innovative vision and steadfast commitment have made a significant
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The local top of BTC and this dip is ETH+ Web3 / DeFi's baptism by fire prepping for the eventual de-coupling and a much needed reality check into the L2 scaling + EIP-1559 packed summer.
The global top of adoption and awareness, I believe, remains years away.
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We also recently took a position in $MYTH and think the SOTP narrative could be interesting if the team can execute on:
- Mobile Party Game capturing the big TAM via Blankos
- 1p / 3p capture with broad US studios after NFL proving its uplift in revenue via marketplace
- Gaming
We are excited to announce our investment in $MYTH and share our thesis
@playmythical
is one of the most impressive web3 gaming projects we have ever seen
We are big believers in gaming x crypto but have found it difficult to invest in the space historically
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3 personal views:
1- DAO doesn't have to be Athenian democracy (in fact, it best not be). It's just an org structure
2- A P2E game design with assets of infinite ROI is like Christianity without hell
3- Defi is soon commoditized & a sub-feature of apps that own users & traffic
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If you as a chad / chadette:
- Are interested in building something new with me in a tech + ops role now + deal-sourcing & investment next
- Speak English + another language (or many!)
- Speak fluent degen and can ape stronk
Plz dm / am interested in chatting! Location agnostic
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Looking forward to the days where I can upload legal docs for review and have ChatGPT add / rephrase / remove clauses and cut the legal bills by 80-90%
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Forgot who said it but it's as cogent as ever:
Bull market produces bullshit, bear market bears fruit.
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(0) Now that we have AMM, lend/borrow, derivative platforms, and potential L2 scaling solutions emerging, I think it’s about time where we start seeing active / passive management products emerge, where users can benefit from someone else’s alpha without losing custody.
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(0) While the progress of L2 is on-going, I think another area within
#DeFi
is highly interesting today and remains slightly underexplored by buidlers and speculators / investors alike – tools & modularization add-ons ($GRT, $Gauntlet, $KP3R, $GYSR)
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So are people sending
@bantg
death threats now because they accidentally 100% tip after getting rekt on $EMN
I mean <80 IQ is the next best thing after >130 IQ but I didn't know people can actually go below 50.
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1- I may have spoken about this before, but I think it’s rather likely existing
#DeFi
protocols would vertically and horizontally expand into financial conglomerates. What’s 1 module of financial primitives would expand to a full suite of services
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It feels to me utterly financially irresponsible to not study Web3 / crypto / Bitcoin and allocate accordingly right now.
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Given $ETH is basically cash for crypto-native funds, barring add'l catalysts it'd pump alongside everything dumping as some funds derisking into ETH. The leg for ETHBTC to moon would be contingent on:
- S/D flip w/ Mt Gox x Celsius
- Restaking induced ponzu forcing peeps to own
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$SUSHI goes to show that network effect businesses in the future would have to benefit all stakeholders instead of just equity owners, or risk being disrupted in the blink of an eye. Fascinating (and righteous) liquidity attack launched by the
@NomiChef
team.
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Can someone give me the TLDR on how $API3 differentiates from $LINK? As $GRT rips market focus is shifting to middleware and this one is the recent standout of a small-cap listing.
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0 – In the past, I have expressed my anticipation on elegant solutions re: non-callable lending – and expect many teams to throw their hats into the ring.
@RulerProtocol
is what I believe to the 1st valid attempt to take a crack at it (if you know others, dm me!
@nftfi
maybe?)
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With another sizable clip of 4.7k MKR sent to Coinbase from a16z, I think they only have ~7k MKR left to sell, which by historical cadence is about 5 days of volume. A few whales showed up last couple of days buying some MKR (likely recognizing the thesis as CT heats up).
Now is
Probably another 10 days until a16z is done along w/ Paradigm OTC. Token remains incredibly strong. Rune's new proposal to pamp up DSR yield (8%+) is a short-term deterrent to FCF (I calculate we could be squarely around 70-100 mm FCF mid-term still if they optimize for yield now
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(0) There aren’t that many apps that straddle multi-chain, multi-layer (“MCML”) yet, so this is an under-explored area, but I think teams should really start thinking about aggregating such data. Let’s take $SUSHI as an example.
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btw this is probably as consensus as it goes amongst Web3 funds but:
1. NFTs = $BLUR
2. DEXs = $UNI
3. Deriv DEXs = $DYDX but I'm eyeing $VRTX launch
4. L2 = prob $ARB + $OP basket
5. Gambling = $RLB
6. AI = prob $AKT but we think Myshell when they have a token.
7. DePin
If you HAD to pick 1 ticker for each vertical below, what would they be?
- NFTs
- Alt L1s
- L2s
- Deriv DEXs
- AI
- Gambling
- DePin
- Oracles
- Memes
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Setup into Jun / Jul / Aug now very interesting:
- Granular policies / clarity from China on OTC + trading
- Inflow into Web3 / DeFi funds bypassing BTC for fiat on-ramp
- Arbitrum in a week + Optimism into June + EIP1559 for July
- Fed balance sheet pot'l taper by end of summer.
Could see last wave of FUD from China within 1-2 weeks as departments crystalize guidance from Liu He / State Council -- miner & retail capitulation should occur around this time.
It'd be telling on how market reacts throughout -- and if it stabilizes, June + July cld be good.
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I’d like to extend a very warm welcome to
@Chrislulu816
in joining Folius. Chris will be heading our APAC venture efforts, with a previous tenure at Sequoia China and Redpoint China seeding consumer, SaaS, and Web3 startups. I can’t think of a better partner to join forces with.
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Cogent. Where I drew my inspiration from.
If you can understand AWS, you can understand Ethereum.
It's just a cloud computing platform. Like AWS, you build and deploy apps to it. Instead of $, you pay in ETH. It has tiny throughput but a unique kind of security. And many people find that valuable.
cc:
@TrustlessState
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Funny comment when catching up with a friend at another fund: "$DOT is $EOS where the team actually tries". Touche!
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Since Talking about $GME is in vogue these days...here's the most shorted stocks currently on the street, wonder who's next. The larger HFs would almost certainly have to front-run this and degross when all the WSB degens are looking at this exact same pic.
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Folius Web3 China Dev Report (2C App focused):
EN:
CN:
If the APAC / China Web3 seed-stage 2C startup side of the world remains a mystery to you, we’ve put something together to offer our observations. Many thanks to
@Chrislulu816
基于语言隔阂，文化差异，及赛道萌芽等因素，西方用户及投资人对于亚太深耕Web3的初创消费公司所知甚少。我们为此特意整理了一份观察分享，以飨读者。特别感谢
@Chrislulu816
和
@KD2Moon
共同撰写此文。
Folius Web3中国开发报告 (消费者应用专题)：
中文：
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CT I need your help, would love to know if there's any mistakes / omissions of names / relationships on this picture -- especially glaring mistakes. Good answers will get my NFT if I ever issue one, lol <3<3<3
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Ramping up hard on the Solana. If you may, please shill me your favorite resources on the background, ecosystem, and favorite projects in the space. Thanks CT!
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ECB Dovish + PBOC cut rates.
FOMC Jan 26 set up well for more dovish stance from Jerome re: QE / QT + rates.
Watch VIX, 10Y, ARKK / Nasdaq, and DXY closely.
Path-dependent but reversal from hawkishness will be your signal to run it back turbo (until the Fed's tone changes again)
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Think we could be on the verge of a BTC L2 pump as memecoins rotate a bit.
US has $STX
China has $ORDI $SATS $CKB
Then there’s some China L2 TGEs like Merlin with almost 3 Bn TVL that could drive some Asia induced fomo
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$YFI about to break $BTC's all-time high of $20,000
Imagine pretending you are involved in
#DeFi
but not involved in $YFI.
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(0) This will be a thread about $DHT, what I deem the prime brokerage /custodian / managerial platform on top of $SNX. While you are at it, if you think you got the chops, make sure to apply to the $500k seed investment to kickstart your fund:
Today, decentralized asset management platform dHEDGE is announcing an open call for managers to join the platform! Up to 500,000 sUSD will be invested from the dHEDGE DAO. Successful applicants will see investments of between 10,000 and 100,000 sUSD each.
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When China steps in re: backstopping systemic risk on other non-恒大 real estate companies while Fed backs off on Taper talk in 2-4 weeks it may be good time to gigabid but what do I know.
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资本运作终究只是乘法。没了前面的1，后面跟着再多0也没什么意义。最终绝大多数地荣誉和赞扬，还是应该给予那些虽知前方迷雾一片，却还能胆大心细地握紧方向盘前行，并最终创造而非分配价值地企业家们。
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(0) I feel strongly that Web3 login is strictly superior to web2 (twitter / google) logins. Ability to seamlessly manipulate value + signal ownership is a goldmine. Soon we should access zoom, docsend, DocuSign, YouTube, Netflix equivalent sites just like we ape Uniswap coins.
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By popular request. Watch $SUSHI very closely in the coming weeks...Miso is just the beginning.
Also can someone help point me to (a) whether the 1inch TVL is right -- I'm getting from their analytics site and (b) how one should think about take-rate on 1inch volume?
Good work by
@Lucas
; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀
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Read COMP chain doc. Appears
@rleshner
is building an open, permissioned hub (via separate chain) for x-chain asset lend / borrow (similar to $RUNE in a way), also with USDC/T/DAI competitor emerging. Think he's prepping for (a) custody of real-world asset & (b) TradFi entries
(23) We think cross-chain bridges as toll-roads can be sizable businesses going forward – in particular, whether its L1-L1, or L2-L2, there could be significant lending / borrowing needs (for immediate access). They seem primed for multi-layer, multi-chain world.
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Still forming a thesis (backed by #'s) on $MATIC but I think there's a narrative to be had by the market of it being the fastest horse in the L2-explosion / Roll-up as a service future. Assuming the CDK becomes the standard for RaaS + liquidity / bridge aggregation and say
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(0) I’m a little
#drunj
, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.
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Why do intelligent college folks these days even want to work at an iBank? Honest Q.
If one's real savvy you get into PE / HF right away.
If one's got tech chops FANG then entrepreneurship seem much higher upside.
If one's got all of above & vision, then drop-out = big upside.
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Call me crazy but 1 of nuclear bear case I had was if Chinese gov silently accumulates rigs until they blitzkrieg miners within 48-hour window (wen CN hash still dominant) & 51% attack $BTC network (& burn maybe couple hundred mil doing so). That risk seems much more remote now.
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(0) This will be a thread about Bitfinex’s 1st ieo – Ampleforth $AMPL. Whilst with a novel token mechanics, it is anything but stable (faaaar from it, and may not be so even at scale). The somewhat misleading signals might fool many initially, but it’s great trading sardine!
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W/ Scatter mobile, EOS Lynx, EOSKnight, and EOSBET, we are getting a glimpse of the future. Let’s make this interesting – if EOS doesn’t exceed 0.1 ETH at any given point before June 9th, 2019, I will send 1 EOS to every person who retweets this msg. Screenshot it!
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这里对中国的创业者说一声：不管形势如何，我们一直都会在。
Twitter / Telegram:
@Mapleleafcap
Email: Jason
@folius
.ventures
如果您一直相信Web3行业的未来，并真诚地在
#Budil
,欢迎咨询。
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Looking for YFI+REN+CRV integration on 1-lick auto-conversion + stake BTC into RENBTC into curve w/ autosell + auto NXM cover on REN & CRV with 1-click exit thx.
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Curating a list of potential banking partner now that Silvergate + Signature may not be going concerns. Long-term option for a small crypto shop that seem viable so far are as follows:
- JPM (prob v. hard?)
- Mercury (US only)
- Customers
- DBS
- OCBC
Who else? Open to more.
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I’d like to welcome
@0xAikoDai
to Folius full-time as our gamification researcher.
- Just graduated from Uni;
- I never met or video-chatted her (aka anon);
- Actually a hardcore gamer & forgets more about gaming than I have learned
This is the way. Couldn’t be more excited!
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$MKR and $COMP mooned because they temporarily became inventory for high ROI endeavors like farming $YAM (in fact, much like $ETH during 17 ICO); but $ETH's token design remains crippled that prevents it from capturing much value from all the actions within the ecosystem
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4年内我们一定会看到：
- 0 成本USD链上流转
- 小白0摩擦和准入门槛使用链上USD
- 对于USD使用者、储蓄者、和传播者的大比例国债利息(2-5%)返现
USDC + USDT 双雄垄断格局不一定是终局。
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The curious case of $PEOPLE
- downside protected @ 1 ETH : 1 mm coins
- good press & wide token distribution, meme stronk
- 40-50 mm FDV = apeable
Wonder how long it takes for it to turn into a meme coin and/or being snapshotted into OHM forks.
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