Jamie Murray
@MWG_Jamie
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Portfolio Manager, Murray Wealth Group. Tweets are not investment advice. MWG may or may not have positions in securities mentioned in tweets.
Toronto, Canada
Joined September 2019
I highlighted $AVGO as a stock to watch for 2025 in a special with @globeinvestor - company is approaching 10 bagger territory for us at MWG with stock trading up 17% pre market.
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I believe the simple answer to getting oil producers to pump more is simply adequately value their reserve base so share buybacks are less attractive relative to production growth. $CNQ $WCP $CVX.
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We own $CTS.TO in our Global Equity Growth Fund. With the stock cut in half ytd and a special committee announced, we want to update our views on the name. 1/n.
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1/ We are long $ATZ.TO - Three poor quarters in a row after 10 great ones. Looking at our thesis drivers. we've owned since 2018 and understand there are cycles of brand heat and abnormal comp growth. Always refer back to the long term drivers.
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Possible this is the bottom in CAD/USD? .-Rate cuts will spur near term economic growth.-Conservative majority next year.-Commodities exports strong (oil, nat gas, gold) .-stock market at ATH.-tariffs probably aren't happening if border is sole concern.
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$TVE.TO block trade wildly oversubscribed a $2.53/share, we got 1/10 allocation - looks like the generalists are coming back. cc: @bnn_bull.
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I'll take $ARX.TO, $CPG.TO and $SDE.TO in order of low/med/high risk (relative of course) and the king $CNQ.TO is a no brainer.
New 2022 Price Guide for ya from National Bank -Nice to see different takes - Some are going to like some of these 😀 and their top picks .$cnq $hwx.to $su $meg.to $cj.to $bte.to $erf.to $gxe.to $tve.to $ath.to $cve $wcp.to #oil #oott #oilsands
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@ecommerceshares EPS only fells because $5B delta on securities gains/losses. Operating income up 20%.
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Finally (FINALLY) some insider buying at $ATZ.TO - Exec Chair Brian Hill purchased 240k shares at ~$25 last week. Note he had sold much more through 2 secondary sales over past 2 years.
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Solid Q with small topline/bottom line beat. Inventory down 21% yoy. $ATZ.TO. Outlook for Q4 implies a sales beat at midpoint (usually beats next quarter sales guide). Margin headwinds on SG&A still impacting but expectations for both to improve through FY25.
1/ $ATZ.TO earnings out Wednesday. A key quarter as FY/Feb means next report in 4 months. Last quarter stopped the bleeding and put a floor in stock and estimates. It's time to grow again.
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We expect $NWH.UN to trade up to $6.50-7.00 through May 2025 following its convert refinancing and hiring of a new CEO. It’s payout ratio should be in the low-80s and trending down. Cheapest REIT outside of Office. Full research here.
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If oil/energy is down and housing is now down and labour has slack, where is inflation pressure?.
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As expected $ATZ.TO nice beat in current quarter - big raise to Q4 Revenue ($825-850M) vs $772M est. -27% growth in US. As highlighted below, Canada inflected in November.
$ATZ.TO reports Q3/25 on Jan 9/25 (Nov '24 Qtr). All signs point to a significant beat and raise. I think Canada performance turned just after last conf. call &surprised higher. U.S. comps look fantastic on Google & Bloomberg data. Superpuff (15% of winter sales?) strong.
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$ATZ.TO $ATZAF Aritzia is hosting its first investor day on March 27 (12pm ET) and will update its long term targets for 1st time since its IPO. A quick thread on what we expect from the day.
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1/ As a LT $ATZ.TO bull, FQ2 was 1st Q in 2023 where it feels like the bull story will takeover. Reason 1: Known headwinds didn't worsen. It (slight) beat sales + margin estimates. Guide mostly inline & despite issues in '23 it still 'beat'' Q #s every time. More importantly/.
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One of the most shareholder friendly management teams ever in the commodity space.
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Long Canada let’s goo!.
Building TMX is a great start, without which we'd *already* be in a world of hurt even absent the US tariff risk. But we can produce much, much more. As an Albertan driller once put it to me, "give me a pipeline and I'll fill it.". Unleash Canadian energy, no holds barred.
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$TD results were weak this quarter no doubt, the suspending of the medium term guide lets new CEO reset expectations in summer. Consensus already had no flat EPS for FY25 and 6% for FY26. Probably down today on weak FQ4 but still feels like a clearing event.
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Looks like another massive Flagship for Aritzia $ATZ.TO - 46k square feet! Along with upcoming 5th Ave NYC, have to wonder how much of financial return is store level economics vs. national brand awareness. I believe these are double to quadruple the size of current flagships.
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We published an update on our Aritzia Investment $ATZ.TO. Last three quarters have marked the bottom in margins, expect sales growth to accelerate in 2H/FY25 to our email subscribers. Sticking with $50 target. I'll link the report when it's available but here are the highlights.
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$ATZ.TO.Rev $444 vs 396 (guide was $400 at top end).EBITDA $66 vs $56.EPS $.34 vs $.24. Guide is better.Q1 revenue $375M vs $310M cons.FY23 $1.8B vs $1.7B, understandably conservative due to macro. CEO Brian transition to Exec Chair, Jennifer takes the reins.
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Right on cue - $ATZ.TO was my top pick for 2025. A great collection. We own 7 of these (and just sold $LULU ).
$ATZ.TO reports Q3/25 on Jan 9/25 (Nov '24 Qtr). All signs point to a significant beat and raise. I think Canada performance turned just after last conf. call &surprised higher. U.S. comps look fantastic on Google & Bloomberg data. Superpuff (15% of winter sales?) strong.
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Murray Wealth Group celebrated 9 years since the launch of our funds. Proud to report the MWG Global Equity Growth Fund has achieved a 14.1% return since inception.
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New investment in Flagship REIT $MHCu.TO - low debt locked in at 4% rate to 2030 and strong AFFO per share growth with a 54% payout ratio. Like the management and like the strategy.
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11/ At Murray Wealth, we are long term investors and give management teams 3-5 years to execute. We still see the foundation of management's long term vision for a high value mid-market ITSP but acknowledge the next 6 months will be critical for improved results. $CTS.TO.
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@jaltucher Disagree with this - offices are dead for now because you can only put 2 people on an elevator and that doesn’t work for 60 story building. Good chance we are through this in a year. Prices will adjust, demand will recover. I can’t wait to visit NYC again.
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Flows rule everything around me (from CIBC)
Canadian retail investors will look to these names once they can't renew their GICs at +4% rates.
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Quick thread on Linamar $LNR.TO, one of our favourite ideas. We see 100% upside in next 12-24 months. Linamar is a global manufacturer of auto drivetrain components, booms/scissor lifts and combine headers. It trades at 7.5x NTM P/E, no net debt and has a $3.2B market cap.
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$UBER is on the cusp of massive FCF inflection. Demographics, more markets reaching breakeven, cost/investment leverage, margin accretive growth drivers like advertising. AVs are likely accretive long term and still 5+ years away. Similarities with $NFLX.
In 2026, this business will have mid-teens top line growth, 19% EBITDA margin, 31% incremental EBITDA margin, 70% EBITDA to FCF conversion.
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Here's the segment. Talked about $AVGO (Buy the dip), $NWH_u (cheap cheap), $GEI.TO (lagging peers but dividend secure). Thx @Westpine613 for highlighting GEI CEO OM Buy 🍻.
Joining @BNNBloomberg for the close at 4pm talking markets.
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@marketplunger1 Contract roll in contango (which nat gas always is as we know) guarantees long term capital destruction
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Avjit Kamboj is performing miracles at $cts.to. Cash from operating activities amounted to $229.5 million, an increase of $188.0 million;. CF/EBITDA - conservatively 75% target in '24. EBITDA/Gross profit margin - LT target 30% vs. 24% in 2023. Sounds like further upside.
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2024 in the books!. Our Global Equity Growth Fund returned 31.7% (14.7% Since Inception). Our Income Growth Fund returned 25.7%. (11.0% Since Inception). Please reach out if you’d like more information.
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$ATZ.TO stepped up buyback pace in Feb. 117k shares retired versus 47k in Jan. Would love to see a 200k month in March.
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1/ $ATZ.TO earnings out Wednesday. A key quarter as FY/Feb means next report in 4 months. Last quarter stopped the bleeding and put a floor in stock and estimates. It's time to grow again.
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Energy stocks back at buy levels imho $WCP.TO
Every morning you wake up, is a good thing. Oil ⬆️at $75.Nat Gas ⬆️$0.20 😯. Imagine being on the wrong side of those leveraged products! Double digits. I'm ready. Let the day commence. Bonjour de Montréal 🌞
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$ATZ.TO reports Q3/25 on Jan 9/25 (Nov '24 Qtr). All signs point to a significant beat and raise. I think Canada performance turned just after last conf. call &surprised higher. U.S. comps look fantastic on Google & Bloomberg data. Superpuff (15% of winter sales?) strong.
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I don't know if this is bottom in $SBUX but it's not hard to see activist + new CFO/mgmt shake-up + some innovation turn sentiment and see EPS trough. 20x multiple on $4.60 FY26 = $92 in 18 months. Sentiment in the tank but strong core customer & per store economics.
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I’ll be joining @BNNBloomberg at noon for @marketcall. You can tweet them your questions or phone in!.
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$ATZ.TO earnings out Thursday AM. Earlier cadence than usual, 🤞this is the nadir of warehouse/inventory/margin noise. Sales outlook weak but improving in 1H24 with new product/new stores. Should trade higher than 12x sales growth accelerates.
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$LNR.TO buyback is super accretive. Buying back 7% at bottom of cycle for next couple of years, growing market share. Not even mentioning the $1.3B of land and buildings (at cost) they own.
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$ATZ.TO 😍. Revenue of $350M vs $296M cons. EBITDA $73M vs. $48M .EPS $0.39 vs. $0.21. Q3 guide $350-375M (cons at $329M).FY $1.25-1.3B (cons $1.2). Some puts/takes on SG&A/costs but in summary 🤑.
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Buying more $ERE.UN and $NWH.UN - think rate pressures fade from here (been wrong before🫠) . Simple playbook: sell your assets.
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Bruce and I will be in Calgary and Vancouver late next week. Please dm if you’re interested in meeting up and talking stocks!.
2024 in the books!. Our Global Equity Growth Fund returned 31.7% (14.7% Since Inception). Our Income Growth Fund returned 25.7%. (11.0% Since Inception). Please reach out if you’d like more information.
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North American jobs numbers continue to highlight ongoing slowdown and need for rate cuts over next six months. Lots of paths this could go but high debt/low sensitivity plays like $CPX.TO and $ENB.TO should do well.
#1. Jamie Murray, Portfolio Manager, Murray Wealth Group. - interest rate sensitive sector will lead 2nd half of 2024.- likes the tech sector.- sees an obvious trade in those interest rate sensitive stocks especially in utilities & some specific RE.
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3 quotes from $WCP.TO conf call (paraphrased).-Guide unchanged but we expect to be at high end of range, 🚨if not higher🚨.-Not raising divvy with a 7% yield, will buy back stock.-Optionality around b/s would be tuck-ins with working interest/operatorship versus large scale M&A.
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$NWH.UN out with its final messy Q after two years of re-structuring. FFO/Payout ratio should rise meaningfully in Q4 and in 2025 (78% payout). Refinancing March 2025 convert + CEO hire are the final hurdles.
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The haves and have-nots. TOU buys BNP and it gets applauded. CPG hammered on this deal, $WCP was hit on XTO too. Both were at least strategic and contiguous - look up $CPG Uinta Basin acq. (2012) to see what not too do. Best to deal in cash.
I think there's a long $WCP / short $CPG trade that could work for an extended period here. It's going to take a while for the market and company to digest this $HHRS transaction. $WCP has lower leverage, a higher dividend yield, and lower decline rate. DYODD
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$ATZ.TO not surprised with the reaction given mixed short term outlook/noise. I estimate Q3 revenue miss of $40M is a) $10 pull forward to Q2 for warehouse sale timing b) $15M for pushed back store openings c) -15M Canada comps offset by d) +$10M for U.S. comps.
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How MWG is trading the current market. Too early to buy the tech hardware dip $CLS.TO.But you should buy the $GOOG dip.Buy $ENB.TO.Buy $AC.TO as LT thesis intact (comprehensive write-up in August).
I'll be on @BNNBloomberg at 1pm, talking stonks. Hope you can tune in.
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🚨🚨🚨Jessica Alba spotted in Superpuff Vest in California🚨🚨🚨. Continued improvement from $ATZ.TO with sales slightly better and margins much better than expected. Not a blow out but trending strong. Sales trends improved sequentially through quarter but guidance maintained.
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Caught up with $WCP.TO mgmt yesterday. I think they prove out their capital discipline, engineering strength and asset quality over next 12 months. Commodity prices aside, I wouldn't bet against them.
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Lots of good disclosure re: $MSFT capex build on the call. 1) Key points: flexible asset that can generate different types of revenue, 2) upfront investment in land/building lower risk versus GPU/CPU which is demand driven 3) Global roll out vs regional (e.g. Azure in 2015-2022)
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Thrilled to announce the MWG Global Equity Growth Fund ranked top decile across the board in the Q1 2024 RBC Pooled Fund Survey.
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Ontario unemployment rate 7%.
BREAKING: Canada loses 1,400 jobs in June compared to Bloomberg economist estimates of a 25,000 gain. Unemployment rate rises to 6.4% .
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A few retailers still crushing it per Google Trends. $ATZ.TO $LULU $TPR. Aritzia launched its summer sale this week, look for a big pick-up in traffic.
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Top picks from today.
Jamie Murray’s Top Picks for November 28, 2024
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$WCP going up because street figured out Nat gas doesn’t really matter to dividend and they arent overpaying for CVX Duvernay.
@chrisinmontreal @Bmrfan1 @BB19043 They project $1.5B cash flow and the dividend is ~$450M. I assume they will pare back capex in H2 if pricing weakens or cf is in doubt.
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Canadian retail investors will look to these names once they can't renew their GICs at +4% rates.
North American jobs numbers continue to highlight ongoing slowdown and need for rate cuts over next six months. Lots of paths this could go but high debt/low sensitivity plays like $CPX.TO and $ENB.TO should do well.
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9) The future is unknowable of course and 3 straight guide downs, doesn't preclude a 4th. But the company has proven they can open new units at good ROE in the past. Would look for insider buying (almost none) or improving search/sales trends for confirmation of turnaround.
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Yesterday's dog is today's opportunity. I think the S&P493 outperform the 7. Lots of REITs, utilities, commodity equities down 20% in last 3-6 months. I'd be searching there.
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Here is the full update on our Aritzia thesis. Worth noting that $ATZ.TO growth (past and future) accomplished with minimal debt usage (ex-leases) or dilution.
We published an update on our Aritzia Investment $ATZ.TO. Last three quarters have marked the bottom in margins, expect sales growth to accelerate in 2H/FY25 to our email subscribers. Sticking with $50 target. I'll link the report when it's available but here are the highlights.
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Post-mortem on $ATZ.TO quarter. Higher COGS through FQ2/24 negates near term sales strength but sales strength improves long term outlook.
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conf. call better than expected.-sales guide for Q2 sandbagged.-margin strength should persist.-inventory fixed.-new stores outperforming.-Hailey Bieber spotted wearing BestHug Little Ribbed tshirt in multiple colours on multiple occasions.
🚨🚨🚨Jessica Alba spotted in Superpuff Vest in California🚨🚨🚨. Continued improvement from $ATZ.TO with sales slightly better and margins much better than expected. Not a blow out but trending strong. Sales trends improved sequentially through quarter but guidance maintained.
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It's begging to look at a lot like Christmas
Some $ATZ.TO notes as we approach Black Friday. 1) Global search trends look healthy - will want to see this line set new highs over next two weeks. It's a short holiday shopping season this year so more difficult compare.
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1/n What's going on with $VMEO? IMHO it's facing a huge air pocket of demand. 1. Last year in lockdown every business pivoted to at-home. I.e. fitness studios starts doing online classes. Vimeo was the easiest solution to do this.
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Hearing further deterioration in credit card delinquencies at Canada FIs - rates cannot come down fast enough. 50 bps could be on the table for September.
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$ATZ.TO at $30 - this has long been our fair value target price for the company. The easy money. We still love the business which is better positioned post-Covid (better design talent/RE available, expanded product shelf, competitors hurt). Could double in 4-5 years.
Bought some more $ATZ.TO - under $17 seems like extremely favourable upside. That preppy J. Crew money will have to go somewhere.
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We comped $ATZ.TO against $LULU and $ITX when they were at similar sizes. The results were intriguing. Check out our latest research.
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$ATZ.TO reports FQ3/23 on Wednesday. Consensus estimates are as follows:.Sales: $589M ($565-590M guide).EBITDA: $116M.EPS: $0.64. FQ4 estimate (for guide).Sales: $522M.
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@bnn_bull @NachoTrust @ericnuttall @BubleQe @Tsxman @thomasg_grizzle @jenstilmanydots @GringoInvesting @a_freerock @RawDog20 @C_Mercanti @MrAbdeesh It’s not about the stock that is @ericnuttall top pick, it’s buying the stock that WILL be @ericnuttall top pick 😉.
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$ATZ.TO Q2 results tonight🕺.Revenue - $583M.EBITDA - $52M.EPS - $0.15. Expectations are much higher, want to see continued acceleration in comps in H2/25 with new flagships so guide more important than seasonally slow quarter.
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$ATZ.TO."Notably, the company believes the current distribution centre footprint should support top-line growth through 2029/2030, suggesting free cash flow generation should be robust following this year's ramp-up of the company's expanded Vancouver distribution centre network.".
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Some $ATZ.TO notes as we approach Black Friday. 1) Global search trends look healthy - will want to see this line set new highs over next two weeks. It's a short holiday shopping season this year so more difficult compare.
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Good earnings call with mgmt seeing spot volumes strength in Texas, drove beat in Q. March 2024 maybe best month ever. Guiding Q2 re-contracting of Gateway volumes, up to 15% higher. Buybacks starting in Q4. CEO retiring in 4-6 months and staying on as advisor. $GEI.TO.
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Beauty quarter from Chemtrade $CHE_U - guidance raised, NCIB now active, debt falling, payout ratio low.
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1/ $ATZ.TO Q1/23 (May) earnings on deck tomorrow. Consensus calls for $375M revenue (inline with guide). EBITDA $72M and EPS of $0.30. Should provide updated Q2 and full year guide.
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