Matt Stankowicz
@MStankowicz
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Grain options trader on the CBOT floor (RIP). Asset Manager. Strong opinions, weakly held. There are no bad sheets, only bad traders! not trading advice.
Chicago
Joined July 2009
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If you want to give people $1,400, pass a 1 page bill for $500B and do it.
The fact that this bill is $1.9T is why no one trusts the government.
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Crop was dead last week, now it's completely made. overreactions both ways.
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If Illinois ends up with a record
#corn
yield, I want a congressional investigation into the crop ratings.
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There is so much money and stupiditity in the world that putting $10 in every shitcoin trading under $1 isn't the worst idea I've ever had.
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Everyone on AgTwitter is conviced beans are going multiple dollars higher still.
Makes me real nervous.
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Here's a fun idea.
Take all the top grain analysts, show them the USDA numbers but don't let them see the market.
Then at 11:30 have them guess where we are trading.
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@GoodestThinking
It's not about being smart or not, it's about asking good questions and holding your guests accountable for an answer. He does it better than most "journalists" at this point.
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Virus blown out of proportion
Market selloff
Zero interest rates
Virus effects minimal
Greatest summer rally of all time
Trump reelected in landslide.
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There's a protest going on right outside the CBOT building, I can't hear exactly what they're saying, but they probably want beans to rally.
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When I was bearish, AgTwitter hated me and all I wanted was everyone to grow a great crop.
Now i'm bullish and rooting for the destcution of all crops, warmly embrace by AgTwitter.
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grains still headed to zero. we'll be there in a few days at this rate. Thanks to Crude, we know zero isn't even the bottom anymore.
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Technially,
#Corn
looks like its setting up for an explosive rally like wheat and beans.
Funadamentally, I don't understand how we're up on the day.
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The fact that the teachers unions hate
@BetsyDeVos
means she's got to be good.
#confirmDeVos
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not a fan of using trend line as the inital
#corn
yield number.
181 is the trend, but it would also be a record. possible, of course, but why assume a record yield as the average starting point?
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Guys, I posted buy corn and beans on reddit over the weekend. You're welcome.
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Next week the G/E in Illinois will be zero. let's just price that in now and get it over with. Also, we will likely be shocked by the yield on a zero% G/E crop.
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Bottom line in the block trading argument is this, algorithms are not design to absorb risk, they execute a trading strategy. Market makers absorbed risk and provided liquidity, the CME has effectively destroyed that system and doesnt know how to replace it.
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This is about as steep of a rally in grains as I've ever seen.
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I've been saying this for a while and it looks to be becoming true....
If you have enough money you can bully the market in the low volume overnight, convince everyone the action is correct by the start of the day session and sell it out, locking in a profit.
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This is what happens when you cut commissions to zero.
You are not the customer, the fund that pays for order flow is the customer.
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If everyone's a billionaire, no one's a billionaire. I think this concept is lost on a lot of smart people.
This is the asteroid that could make every person on Earth a billionaire. NASA plans to visit it by 2026.
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Longs are likely getting stopped out here in
#Corn
. So that either means that this is the level we will rally from or the beginning of a bigger selloff.
I should charge for this high-level analysis.
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Who is president should not matter this much.
The federal government has too much power.
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Teaching my 2 year old the alphabet.
"What letter does Nicholas start with?"
"Yellow"
I think we can safely rule out Harvard.
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The best part of WASDE day is that Ag Twitter can unite in their hatred of the USDA
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So grains are higher on ukraine tension, but the stock market doesn't care, energies don't care, and metals don't care. got it.
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This is the first summer I'm leaning into the bullishness instead of fading it. I may not make more money, but at least I'll make more friends.
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summer report day timeline
weather
weather
weather
pretend to care about WASDE
weather
weather
BELL
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Everyone enjoying the limit up grains I heard about for 2 days?
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Chicago suburbs.
Day 2 of just not wearing a mask in stores.
No one seems to care much.
I see a few others. We nod to each other in solidarity.
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Sharply higher grains tonight because bitcoin is higher and that somehow matters...
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It scares me how convinced everyone is that grains have to rally soon.
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So is a healthy BMI.
I’ll say it louder for the people in the back: vaccines are good.
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ADM report says if weather map shows hot and dry on sunday we'll gap higher, otherwise we trade lower. Whatever they're paid, its too much.
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This is the market we have been warning the CME about since they decided to close the pits. Enjoy.
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A sharp move higher in grains tomorrow would make the least sense, so that's my call for Wednesday.
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Grain market doing what it does best, pissing everyone off.
Bulls aren't happy, Bears aren't happy.
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Forget republican and democrat...
How do we bridge the gap between people who think masks are unnecessary and people who wear them alone in their cars?
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#Soybeans
peaked above the upper bound of the magic line and didn't see it's shadow, meaning 6 more weeks of bullishness.
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Twitter needs to come together and decide if
#TariffMan
parodies will be sung to the tune of "candy man" or "rocket man"
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When we break on bullish news, or rally on bearish news, that's the time to be most attentive.
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52 years ago on this date a man walked on the moon with computer technology less powerful than our cell phones, and today we're huddled around watching someone blast off to just barely the edge of space.
something doesn't add up.
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If grains are lower overnight, you buy them.
If grains are higher overnight you buy them.
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This might be the most bullish I've ever seen ag Twitter. Can't be a good sign.
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The debate used to be technical vs fundamental. Now neither seem to matter.
Its just tweets, fund positions, fake headlines, trade wars, and seasonal patterns.
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As these mandates fall, we are counting these as wins when really we lost 2 years of our lives. We should be angry and holding elected (and unelected) officials accountable.
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Buy Dec
#Corn
for 414 with a 404 stop, with today's report ahead of us, is one of the most irresponsible trade recs i've ever seen.
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This tariff selloff has affected my trading, can I get a piece of that $12B?
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Analysts that were bullish on Friday are now telling me that the corn crop is made.
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That overnight grain trade is such a useful period of price discovery that really builds trust in this market...
#OATT
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I'm surprised yields were raised.
And I'm surprised the market is higher on that info.
But i'm not surprised that any of this surprises me.
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One reason I'm still leaning bearish is the max pain theory. Max pain doesn't happen on a .50-$1 rally in
#corn
. Pain happens when you're sitting on old crop, haven't hedged new crop, are looking at a dry forecast and suddenly we're locked limit down at 520 when it was just $6.
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I don't know exactly how a country "becomes" Socialist. But if I had to guess, it would start with some massive event that empowers bureaucrats, weakens the working class and pumps the stock market.
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absolutely stunning how weak the grains have been over the past few weeks in light of contantly declining crop condtions, no ukraine resolution, and widening basis.
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Ag option vol is cheap and getting cheaper. protection for short futures is very inexpensive. Makes a rally extremely difficult.
#OATT
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Today would be a great day for a failed rally. Way too many people are happy today, and the market likes to crush happiness. It's as good an indicator as any other voodoo.
#OATT
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Limit down.
RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY: RUSSIAN MILITARY OPENED WARNING FIRE ON DRY CARGO SHIP NEAR UKRAINE - IFAX
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Amazing that 1000 contracts traded limit up in wheat (1209) despite synthetics trading 1350 at the close.
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cool, now do obesity, smokers, drinkers etc.
Its a health choice, not a political position.
When anti-vaxxers rack up tens of thousands of dollars in hospital bills, who pays?
Think about it, and you'll realize that their political positions are effectively being subsidized by members of insurance pools, taxpayers, and the vaccinated.
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No overnight grains session, just as the founding fathers wanted!
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Still waiting for gas prices to drop. If oil was up 30% gas would have been $4 by my drive home.
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Only me and 1 other guy in the train car. Thanks CME for having Dec
#corn
expiration on such a stupid day.
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Unpopular opinion...
The COT report that explains why
#corn
broke 60¢ two weeks ago doesn't do much to help me today.
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So we are in this inflation mess because we provided unlimited free money for 20 years.
Now we're going to end it by providing more unlimited money? And then just stop rate hikes and tell inflation to stop?
Just want to make sure I understand the plan.
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I forgot how to trade a market that is demand driven and bullish, but could drop 50¢ in a heartbeat. but also stop moving right here for 3 weeks.
#Soybeans
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Everything only goes up now, the commodity, stock and fundamentals no longer matter. Hodl everything.
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Trump just won some major goodwill from a huge chunk of the country. He's preparing to do something super crazy regarding the election. Time stamp it.
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@FearlessGrain
@giajules2000
This is a really silly take for this point in the year. Crop can still be totally saved with timely rain. In two more weeks if we're still dry we can talk about drastic reductions.
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Expanded limits tomorrow, then a 3 day weekend to think about everything. what a set up.
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Wow
#corn
. Did not expect a complete pull back after being up almost 2%. Exuberance then dismay
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Rumor is China is buying beans to fill their reserves, only weeks after the rumor was they were going to deplete all their reserves...
No one know what the hell is going on.
#OATT
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Analysts today are scrambling to defend their bullish recs on
#corn
.
Everyone knew that this report was based on June 1 numbers, why was everyone caught so off guard? We knew it would be bearish, we knew it should be taken with a grain of salt.
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