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(Part 1)
Let's talk about what Happened during the first days of the
#counteroffensive
in the
#Verbove
and
#Robotyne
Area in detail
Its split into 2 threads because I can't put over 25 tweets in a thread, this is Part 1
[Thread] 1/
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The Fourth day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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3K
The Third day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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2K
Now with the Infiltrations around
#Pidstepne
,
#Poima
and
#Krinky
it looks more and more likely that Ukraine will launch an offensive in the
#Kherson
Region across the
#Dnipro
river
Detailed Analysis Thread🧵
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2K
The 6th Day of the Kursk Incursion according to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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204
2K
The Second day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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2K
The 5th day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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2K
Why the Russian defense in Kursk Failed.
A talk about Conscripts, Defensive Works, readiness, minefields and more.
Thread🧵
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1K
The Ukrainian Logistical and Engineering assets, their limitations and capabilities in Kursk
Logistical Analysis
Thread🧵
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1K
The 7th day(August 12th) of the Operation
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
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145
1K
The Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Quick Thread🧵
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819
Why Ukraine should withdraw from
#Avdiivka
, before it gets bad.
explaining the logistics of such a situation
Thread🧵
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I have heard the news of the "Breakthrough" in Belitsa but I haven't received any information so I'm not going to comment on it today.
Thanks for reading.
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Thank you for reading a lot of work goes into these threads and I'm really happy that people are enjoying them
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Thank you for reading.
I try to put as much effort as I can into the creation of my threads and I want to thank the people that assisted in the creation of this one.
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Ukraine now has around 30 Btn's deployed which do not put an ease to their logistics.
This is definitely one of the main reasons we've seen the front become static and Ukraine at this point can only bet on securing the Railways in Korenevo and its surroundings to continue the Op.
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In the evening Ukrainian DRGs landed on the southern height securing it without much resistance but soon after a Russian counter attack would restart the fighting.
From the north the Ukrainian 22nd assaulted again and by the night the Russian marines were dislodged.
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During such operations every minute matters and speed is of the essence. Currently Ukraine is in a race against time trying to secure their operational goals before a Russian response is possible.
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During the last thread I got shuttle criticism about the fact that I don't properly cover the Russian forces, which is valid but tracking ragtag groupings formed the same day combined with troops from multiple units is not the easiest thing to do.
But I'll try to anyways.
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As Russian reserves are arriving advancing becomes significantly harder, The fighting around Martynovka has been the hardest over the last few days with the village having changed hands multiple times.
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To start off there was the deployment of a new unknown battalion that pushed through the villages of Kucherov and Goptarovka.
The unit didn't advance 50kms they instead moved around 10kms under the dark and setup in the forests near Ozerki.
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The chaos was caused by the Ukrainian DRGs which moved through 2 main Axis, one near the newly occupied village of Plekhovo and one near the newly deployed unit.
Some of these groups actually made it pretty far in, even reaching the outskirts of Belaya.
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The Suzhda sector never had any action unlike the border in Belgorod which was guarded by actual Contract troops and as a result readiness was to the bottom and complacency had long taken over.
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you might think that the Russians have a modern mechanized force defending the area in reality these units are pretty poorly equipped
2/2
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There won't be daily threads anymore, people who are following the situation can get what I provide pretty easily now that most of the chaos is gone but I do have some comments about the last couple days.
Quick Thread🧵
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There was a great potential for a defense in this sector, but no one was manning the concrete reinforced fortifications and the Russians just got encircled in their packed positions.
The Russian 17th Battalion was destroyed and the 18th significantly damaged as it was outflanked.
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The area was guarded by the Russian 17th and 18th border protection Battalions which were conscript battalions created under the Russian 488th Regiment but under FSB Command.
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First of all I think we should talk about the Dnieper grouping and what it consists of as it is a lot worse quality than it looks like in my map you will see a lot of motorized icons
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Meanwhile on the eastern flank the Russians continued to bring up more reserves including units from Kharkiv.
The eastern front by now has started to become more static as both sides consolidate.
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The defensive system had a plethora of trenches and fighting positions, covered by Anti Tank Obstacles and minefields
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Early in the morning 2 dismounted RVC Companies would begin their movement, their objective would be to move into 2 villages on the southern outskirts of Sudzha in a general attempt to isolate the remaining Russian garrison.
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The big event that happened yesterday was the deployment of a new axis to the east.
The event was a little too hyped but it was still significant.
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In Russia conscripts that do their 12 month mandatory service are not allowed to go into a foreign war so instead they were put into newly created border protection battalions to at least be of some use to the war effort.
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Ukraine was using its most modern UAVs and EW in the area
They destroyed most Russian ISR capabilities and limited the Russian Helicopter fleet's abilities with AA FPVs
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The main Effort was to Korenevo, 2 companies of the 82nd tried to outflank Korenevo through Toplino, they were supported by rocket artillery and FPV teams. firefights also happened at the entrance of the town, but most likely they were just to keep the garrison there occupied.
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The defenses built by General Surovikon the previous year were barely a roadblock to the Ukrainians as no one was manning them.
The AT ditches, minefields and Dragons teeth were breached without an issue at all.
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230
the Dnepr front acts more as a rear area where Russian units refit and restore their strength than an actual front.
Ukrainian units have destroyed several training camps in the area but they still continue to train near the front
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As of the 9th of August the Russian Intelligence perplexed by the situation on the first days and unable to properly identify enemy formations would start to be more efficient
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Inside Sudzha the situation remained silent throughout the day, the Ukrainians the previous day secured their southern flank by taking Makhnovka.
I expected them to try to push into the eastern district through Zamoste but generally nothing happened.
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On august 6th two Ukrainian Battalions crossed the border with practically no resistance, where was the Russian defense and what was it doing.
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Indications show that the Ukrainians in the early morning tried to take back lost positions near Kruglik and most likely succeeding in dislodging them.
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Generally the 18th Battalion was a lot more disciplined than the 17th and they were actually manning their positions.
They were holding the line from Gornal to Plekhovo
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As of today the Russians are calling more and more Conscripts to Kursk as they are legally allowed to use them anywhere inside Russia
We see a lot of units like the 22nd Rgt and we believe that these units got redeployed, most of the time its Conscript Btns under their command.
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So to start with Martynovka I have to address the ORBAT mistake I made yesterday the Marines that assaulted Martynovka are not from the 155th Brigade but from the 810th, more specifically one battalion of them has been deployed in Kursk
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The 17th Battalion was barely preparing to fight a war, they were more prepared for a nice 9 month vacation to Kursk Oblast.
The entire Battalion was mainly in 2 different positions, a big nice and comfortable bunker system near Sverdlikovo and the border post near Suzhda
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The biggest event on Day 6 was the Ukrainian attempt on Kerenevo, the previous day not much happened there as the Ukrainians were regrouping for this operation.
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They were only really doing their border patrols because it was prohibited by law not to.
In 2 days the entire battalion was encircled and as good as gone.
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At the end of Day 5 the Russians were in control of the village but early in the morning of day 6 the Ukrainians assaulted the village from Kruglik again.
After the first hour they were stalled in the north and after a few more hours they had to withdraw back north.
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The FSB's Department of the Border Protection office "Suzhda" was in charge of protecting the border in that sector and on paper they had a very good defensive network to work with.
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The Ukrainian 50th Maintenance Regiment can easily and safely repair vehicles in there without the fear of being spotted and destroyed.
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Just so we are clear on this topic the actual fighting battalions of the 488th are still in Kremmina.
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As it's customary we need to start from Martynovka which was secured by the Ukrainians the previous day.
On day 7 the Russian 810th Marine brigade was completely dislodged from the area including the village of Mykhailovka essentially ending the battle for Martynovka.
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The funny thing is that many Job adverts have appeared in Avito(an equivalent to Ebay) about the construction of trenches in Kursk
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the main problem with a river crossing is that the ground in most places is really swampy with only a few suitable areas for vehicles to cross through that's why it's possible Ukraine would wait for the ground to freeze before attempting any offensive maneuvers
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In the morning the village of Plekhovo was assaulted by Svoboda Rusiya elements, the attempt was unsuccessful but later in the day the Ukrainians would assault it again more successfully.
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Although the border was mainly manned by Conscripts there were also FSB elements in the area as well as elements from units refitting in training bases in the rear like the 200th and 1428th
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The 80th Brigade supported the push by conducting raids to the north as usual but this time they had competition, the 3rd Battalion of the Russian 11th Brigade was to conduct counter raids to the south.
Some reports suggested that they captured villages but that is unrealistic
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although pontoons are necessary for an offensive of this scale the first vehicles would cross using their amphibious capabilities in this scenario I have Ukrainian companies with amphibious Rosomaks and BTR4/3Es which could cross the Dnieper first
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one of the main problems the Ukrainians would experience is Russian airpower the way they could reduce or eliminate the advantage would be to make preemptive strikes on Russian air bases that operate planes in the Kherson area
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The previous day reserves started to form up in the towns of Bol'shoe Soldatskoe and Belitsa, the Ukrainians didn't expect them to be engaged so soon instead they expected them to wait for a higher concentration but they would be proven wrong.
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The Russians for August 10th put their focus on the Isolated Ukrainian position at Martynovka aiming to open the R200 highway.
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In kerenevo inactivity persists, only rotations and regrouping has been observed during Day 5
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The first Russian assault unit (which could have acted as a reconnaissance element) was repelled in the morning without much hustle as the Ukrainians were pretty well dug into the village.
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unlike Zaporizhia the Ukrainians have conducted SEAD/DEAD in the area for a while and looking at Ukrainian jet paths the area is practically safe to fly over this means that the Ukrainians would enjoy intense air support and possibly be able to land helicopters behind enemy lines
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The 18th Battalion was equipped with Mortars, AGS's and some RPGs which basically made them simple Light infantry capable of holding their positions.
Although talking about discipline, the 17th battalion set a very low bar and the 18th Btn had complacency inside their positions.
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The Russians have been seen creating AT Ditches in their rear, usually MDK-3 vehicles from engineering battalions are used but in this case Civilian companies with government contracts are creating field fortifications and trenches using excavators.
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Overnight a Ukrainian element of the 80th Air assault brigade conducted a raid towards Anastasevka through the countryside, after being struck the group apparently retreated.
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As a final note for the people that are having doubts about these analyses I'm leaving this here.
A video came out days later confirming the area of the breach that I talked about on Day 1
there are other examples but this is the clearest one
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SOF units could land behind enemy lines not only by air but by the sea as well such operations would likely happen before the offensive itself with the SOF units conducting special reconnaissance deep behind enemy lines and laser designating targets for Aircraft
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these territorial units are not the only ones holding the Dnepr front as there is the battered 40th army corps, the Arctic troops and other random regiments that were sent for restoration
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Today additional maneuver troops have been deployed and raiding groups will be more prevalent but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.
So That's it for today, thanks for reading
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Meanwhile the 22nd Brigade's deployed battalion would start assembling on the railway north of Sudzha to attempt an outflanking maneuver.
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Inside Sudzha both sides further consolidated, the Ukrainians gained more control over Central Sudzha and secured the localities to the south by crossing the Suzhda Psel river with Svoboda Rusiya elements.
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With the general arrival of Conscripts, artillery batteries and tanks, the Russian defense is only getting stronger.
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Theoretically with 10-15 combat battalions the Ukrainian Logistics could reach up to Lgov but there are also around 10 artillery battalions in support.
For 4 BM21 Battalions to fire once 48 truckloads would be needed to replenish their ammunition.
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The Ukrainians in preparation for the offensive used the Forests north of Sumy to conceal their concentrations of troops and supplies.
Said Supply Dumps are the main Bases for the Ukrainian CSS units.
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As for the Ukrainian Engineering units we know that elements of the 48th Engineering brigade operate in Kursk using Wisent 1 Demining vehicles, UR77s/MICLICs which mostly got attached to frontline units and BREM-1 ARVs.
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The newly arrived Russian tactical reserves would attack from 2 avenues, their objectives would be to relieve the trapped Russian troops of the 488th, destroy the Ukrainian troops on the eastern part of Sudzha and secure the height at Gocharovka.
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Russian Air reconnaissance would observe in the morning for Avenues of attack, they would discover an eerie silence inside Goncharovka, something that was unexpected as it was situated on an important tactical height.
The reason for that would be the withdrawal of heavy equipment
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The Russian column would get ambushed from Kruglik with NLAWs and after taking hefty fire they would switch their attention on dislodging the Ukrainian element from Kruglik as tanks of the 22nd were observing the road outside Martynovka.
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The Ukrainians despite that did understand their mistakes and they would deploy additional remotely placed mines on the road to stop further Russian attempts.
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The companies would be supported by the 88th occupying the nearby heights.
Some elements would move into the town's center which was a grey zone throughout the night after the Russian withdrawal.
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The Russians were only able to dislodge some forward Ukrainian positions during their assault on Martinovka in exchange for some serious losses among their forces
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On day 3 reinforcements would also show up in the form of a new Airmobile BTG consisting mainly of elements of the 80th Air assault brigade but it would also have Marders of the 82nd in the unit.
It would be equipped with Marders, MT-LBu's, BTR80s, HMMWVs and some other stuff.
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Today was a day that left neither side satisfied the Ukrainians were not able to advance and they were put under significant pressure in Suzhda while the Russians failed to achieve their goals with their counter attacks, now uncertainty exists moving forward
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With the deteriorating situation on their service routes and after days of heavy fighting the Russian 488th was not exactly in the best morale. so when Kozak 2s of 88th moved from the north their defense collapsed very quickly
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The Operation most likely didn't achieve its goals, it either had to fall back or they secured a foothold neither of which are particularly good.
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The problem with the Ukrainian defense in this sector was that the Ukrainian positions in Mirnyi could very easily be cut off, their southern flank was unprotected as they expected the remotely placed mines to stop the Russians on the Belitsa road
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August 10th or Day 5 of the operation was a relatively quite day where both sides managed to achieve some tactical gains
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if amphibious vehicles do cross they would want to rush to the main urban centers as Russian armored assets wont have as big of an advantage in there
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The Svoboda Rusiya company held off the Russians until reinforcements arrived which would manage to push them out, some Russians would leave, some would be cleared out but by the evening the town was clear.
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150 Tankers could carry up to 1,000,000 Liters of fuel which is enough for resupplying the force once.
Around 600,000 Liters are needed to resupply the 15 Maneuver Battalions and then another 300,000 are needed for the trucks/pickups themselves.
1/2
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so the areas where pontoons can be placed are on the main bridges as the Ukrainians would have a base to start from
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Fighting would continue throughout the day but by the night all organized resistance would be stopped and only small pockets of resistance would remain by the next day.
This would spell the death of the Russian 488th Regiment.
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Ukraine being a post soviet country and lacking trucks especially in OK North is heavily reliant on Rail for its logistics.
In Kursk though, Ukraine is forced to utilize trucks for its logistics as they haven't secured any railway stations.
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The Ukrainian troops in the eastern bank withdrew after the Russians were cleared in Goncharovka and disaster was averted.
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The differences from yesterdays counter attacks is the avenue of attack and the lack of heavy equipment which worked out to their favor as the Ukrainians were not able to use tank and mortar support at such distances.
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We will assume that 80% of the logistical units from OK North are deployed in Kursk which is a reasonable assumption.
These are the units we have to our map:
The 181st and 226th Logistics Battalions
The 170th Logistics Regiment
The 808th Support brigade
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Soon after the Russian Marine units most likely of the 155th Brigade launched a series of counter attacks onto the Ukrainian positions.
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