LabRadar ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐บ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ธ
@LabbRadar
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Passionate about early stage bios. Try to add value where I can. Always taking the road less taken when it comes to my investment theses. Current focus: $NVCT
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For my own tracking reference: as of July 14, 2024, here are the order of my position weight in my model portfolio:
1. $NVCT 2. $ZURA 3. $VYNE 4. $MNPR 5. $CORZ 5. $NTLA (tied) 5. $PRPH (tied) 6. $ETNB 7. $FULC 8. $SGMT 9. $GOSS 10. $OCUL 11. $HROW 12. $MREO 13. $STRO 14. $GLTO
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๐งต THREAD: The Future of $VKTX and Its Blockbuster Potential in the Oral GLP-1 Market
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@WabKinew
What about the antisemitism the Jewish community is experiencing? Do you have any words about that?? My family has removed the Mezuzah from our front door because we donโt feel safe having people know weโre Jewish. What can we do about that, Wab?
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Some little bits I gathered on my $MREO thesis: ๐งต
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$TGTX I forgot one important thing in my thread: Over 2200 new prescriptions within 2.25 quarters, with an important clarification that this data only encompasses the fresh scripts recorded in their portal. Refills, a substantial component, are not reflected here.
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$FULC The Phase 3 study for losmapimod in FSHD is reading out in 4Q24E. This event is one of the most significant remaining in biotech for 2024, with the potential for a 300%+ upside on positive data. Conversely, negative data could see the company trading around its cash value.
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$AVRO long๐งต
โขOn May 22nd, $AVRO sold its Cystinosis Gene Therapy Program to Novartis for $87.5 million.
โขThis cash injection extended their runway into Q4 2024.
โขStrategic alternatives were announced, exploring options like sale, merger, or returning cash to shareholders.
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$TGTX TG Therapeutics dropped key updates at the 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Let's unpack the highlights and milestones projected for 2024: thread ๐งต (Iโm long the stock)
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Updated thread on $TGTX. Check out my previous threads on it from a few months ago so you can understand this thread:
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Some new thoughts & past reminders on $TGTX. Read previous $TGTX threads before reading this one :) ๐งต
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$TGTX H.C. Wainwright Ups the Ante:
โขPrice target lifted to $45 from $41, maintains Buy rating.
โขCites increased BRIUMVI sales estimates as the catalyst.
โขPreliminary Q4 revenue surpasses expectations.
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$TGTX gotta think some bids coming in near future. I donโt see much (if any) risks & itโs historically been infested with shorts playing games & scare tactics
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$TGTX thread ๐งต bull case
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Very curiousโฆ can anyone in this $MREO cult go a single day without tweeting about the name? How many times can you repeat the same tweet with different wording? is it addictive to tweet the name? I get the signals are bullish but whatโs the point?
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An often overlooked legal idea: With BRIUMVI providing a breast-cancer risk-free alternative to Ocrevus, physicians may face potential legal ramifications for persisting with the latter. This dynamic warrants astute consideration in the evolving landscape of MS treatments. $TGTX
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In an odd way, $TGTX CEO Weiss' decision to curtail script data is a nuanced move. While some argue it provides short-term ammo for stock suppression, the broader narrative envisions script numbers ascending meteorically, with the anticipation of 20 NRx and 20 TRx imminently.
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Some more on $TGTX (I promise Iโm done for awhile after this):
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$NVCT Iโve been waiting to see someone recognize the value here for months now. Finally itโs getting some love my gosh
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$OCUL thread after doing lots of reading this weekend:
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CEO Weiss' strategic shift away from Symphony is a shrewd move, likely to paint a clearer revenue picture. Analysts and retail may have underestimated the actual figures, which, once revealed, could propel $TGTX to new heights.
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Thread ๐งต on $HROW in the ophthalmic pharmaceutical market: I see massive potential especially w/ Opaleye stake managed by Jim Silverman:
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Future Catalysts:
โขJuly: Oral data for 60mg dose cohort.
โขObesity Conference: Full data presentation for high-dose oral drug cohorts.
โขYear-End 2024: Start of either Phase 2B or Phase 3 for SubQ formulation, contingent on FDA feedback.
$VKTX
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$HROW introducing pipeline w/ multiple shots on goal. Iheezi demonstrates impressive growth, boasting a 36% sales increase last quarter. Vevye holds promise for substantial mkt value, & Tresiecne, crucial in the current landscape, prepares for production. Mark Baum is a visionary
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$VKTX portfolio and strategic position make it a standout in the biopharma landscape. Whether through partnerships or acquisition, its potential to redefine the obesity and NASH markets cannot be overstated. This is a stock to watch for both long-term growth & strategic M&A
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With oral GLP-1s alone estimated at a $50B total addressable market, $VKTXโs VK2735 presents a significant opportunity. Considering 20-30% of patients may not tolerate existing GLP-1s from $LLY and $NVO, thereโs a $30B+ market for alternatives. Could VK2735 capture this? $VKTX
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$NXGL also announces a new partnership with STADA Arzneimittel AG to launch Histasolv in North America.
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Thank you for reading! Feel free to comment and add your own insightsโฆ Iโm still learning about this name $OCUL
Cheers!
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Intriguing dynamics at play today for $TGTX. A substantial short covering on ER day, but new shorts might find themselves in a precarious position. With 27% of the float short, there's potential for a strong squeeze.
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Updated thread on $CLRB - see previous thread before reading this one:
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$MREO JP Morgan and Cantor project a 60-65% success probability for Setrusumab in the U.S. and EU, with peak sales estimates of $1.5 billion and $1 billion, respectively. With FDA and EU approval, both $MREO and Ultragenyx could each collect around $1 billion annually.
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Going to be doing some reading into $OCUL over the weekend & craft an in-depth thread on my take. Very impressive pipeline that I canโt overlook here
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Continuation of $MREO thread (it only lets me post 25 nuggets at a time):
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Impressively, 23 out of 24 patients remain in the trial, some for as long as 20 months, with no serious adverse events reported, including cardiovascular issues. This is notable given the cardiovascular risks seen with Amgen's romosozumab in osteoporosis trials. $MREO $AMGN
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Alvelestat, targeting alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency-associated lung disease (AATD-LD), has the potential for full U.S. and EU approval based on a single trial. This reflects the robust efficacy and strategic positioning of Alvelestat in $MREOโs pipeline. $MREO
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Thank for reading! Big mkt overreaction today in $TGTX. Dips were bought :)
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Beyond GLP-1/GIP, $VKTXโs NASH program (VK2809) shows potential. With 52-week biopsy data expected soon, there could be a value surge. Comparatively, VK2809 might outperform recent approvals on efficacy and safety, setting a new benchmark. $VKTX
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I got a lot of beautiful gifts for Hanukah the past week. However, the best gift I couldโve wished for is scooping up a bunch of $NVCT under $8. Wish granted ๐
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$NXGL is a leader in medical & OTC hydrogel products. Hydrogels are ultra-gentle, high-water-content materials designed for various applications. This technology is pivotal in products like wound dressings & cosmetic applications, providing exceptional comfort and effectiveness.
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Lower Relapse Rate: Briumvi sets a new standard by lowering the annualized relapse rate below 0.1, indicating fewer than one relapse per year. It's faster, cheaper, and just as effective as Ocrevus. $tgtx
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@pawcio2009
Which are the two clear favourites? Let me guessโฆ 1. $MREO 2. $TGTX?? could also see $PDSB sneaking in there
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The $TGTX narrative takes a captivating twist with a short interest of 36.6 million shares, equivalent to a substantial 30% of the float. This substantial short interest adds a layer of complexity and intrigue to the unfolding story IMO
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For a potential acquisition cost of $25B, an acquirer would gain access to:
โขLeading NASH treatments.
โขInnovative obesity solutions.
โขX-ALD treatments.
โขMuscle mass improvement therapies (VK2511).
โขAll of which have potential best-in-class (BIC) profiles.
$VKTX
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VK2735โs ph.1 SAD results stand out:
โขCompleted all planned cohorts (0.25mg to 7.5mg).
โขPK profile: Tยฝ 170-250 hrs, suitable for weekly dosing.
Tmax 75-90 hrs indicates gradual onset.
No SAEs, with nausea increasing at higher doses. No vomiting until top dose (7.5mg) $VKTX
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$NVCT think the only reason weโre still sitting sub $10 is bc some inexperienced investors think that they will force the company into an offering, and expect further dilution. Highly doubt they will be successful with trying to force an offering w/ such high inside ownership
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I usually stick to biotech, but I want to write a thread on $GRVY, which I believe to be a hidden undervalued gem. This is a unique R/R:
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Billing and Reimbursement Ease: The permanent J-Code issuance by CMS streamlines billing and reimbursement, aligning interests among insurers, infusion centers, doctors, and patients $TGTX
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$ZURA pipeline is set to capture significant market share in the autoimmune and inflammatory disease space. Key opportunities lie in the treatment of Systemic Sclerosis (SSc), Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS), and Alopecia Areata (AA).
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Why I chose $NVCT for the
#biopick2024
contest. A new perspective I gained from reading
#Joelgreenblatt
โs โThe Little Book that Beats the Marketโ. Read till end:
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$TGTX In the expansive landscape of MS, where 80K patients annually embark on new therapies, anti-CD20s claim their dominance. W/ BRIUMVI at the forefront, challenging Ocrevus, the scenario points toward anti-CD20s becoming the go-to treatment, capturing the lion's share of this
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$OCUL no more stressing about any offerings or further dilution :) this is an easy 5-10X if youโre a patient long term investor
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Alvelestatโs mechanism of action, targeting neutrophil elastase, has shown promise in various lung diseases. Recent positive data from SINSM in bronchiectasis supports Alvelestatโs potential efficacy across multiple indications, further bolstering its market prospects. $MREO
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Game-Changing Drug Approval: In Dec 2022, the FDA approved Briumvi, a game-changer in the treatment of relapsing MS. It's a win for patients, requiring significantly fewer injections than competitors. $TGTX
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Upcoming catalysts include VENTURE data in Q2, a Type C meeting with FDA mid-year, & ongoing ph.1 study for oral formulation. If VK2735 maintains its safety profile, it could redefine mkt. Imagine a well-tolerated pill sustaining lifelong weight lossโappealing to billions. $VKTX
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Female-Focused Market: With 2/3 of MS patients being women and Ocrevus carrying a breast cancer warning, Briumvi becomes an attractive and safer option for many
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The optimism surrounding $TGTX intensifies as it gains traction with Ocrevus switches, attributed in part to the "efficacy gap". Furthermore, the involvement of esteemed Academic centers, now equipped with the J-Code, bolsters this positive momentum.
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$vblt might have to dip my toes in this. Looks like an easy 5-10x with merger
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$AUPH The landscape of Lupus patients in the U.S. is staggering, with 1.5 million affected individuals and an estimated 16,000 new cases annually. Yet, the stark reality persists: only 1939 active LUPKYNIS users two years post-approval.
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Efficacy and Safety: Briumvi matches Ocrevus in efficacy and tolerability while reducing chair time
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Please like, comment, and retweet if you find this analysis insightful! $AVRO $AXSM $MREO $PDSB $XAIR $TGTX $HROW $OCUL $LPTX $ARDX $LIFE $BLUE $MIST $SLRN $SRZN $CRBP $CLRB $CYTK $YMAB $TPTS $DMTK $XFOR $EFTR $VKTX $PRQR $XPON $INZY $NARI $DAWN $ARWR $CTMX $XBI $NTBL $UNCY $CRVS
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$VKTX While early data is promising, the sample size is small, and scaling peptide manufacturing is costly. The competitive landscape is vast, with many molecules vying for attention. Larger sample data could attract potential partners or acquirers, reducing the perceived risk.
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The acquisition scenario for $MREO assumes even greater significance as Rubric Capital continues its buying spree. The strategic moves of this activist investor, as reflected in successive purchases, illuminate their confidence in $MREO's potential.
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Brought my average in $NVCT down to $9.83. Thinking this name will be a 10-20x in 2024. Lots of positive updates in the JPM conference call today. See my tweets for all DD purposes; have posted many threads
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Global Expansion Deal: Neuraxpharm agreed to pay $645 million (plus royalties) for the rights to sell Briumvi outside North America. This signals global potential and a significant revenue stream for $TGTX
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$ARDX With an estimated 550,000 CKD patients on dialysis in the U.S., 80% of whom seek to manage serum phosphorus levels, the demand for effective solutions is substantial. XPHOZAH's novel mechanism positions it as a game-changer in this critical landscape.
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The valuation of $TGTX is poised to match, if not exceed, its peak sales potential. W/ influential MS opinion leaders expressing high intent for transitioning patients to Briumvi, there is substantial potential yet untapped, making any premature valuation seem unduly conservative
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Market Potential: Even if only 30% of Ocrevus users switch to Briumvi, that's an additional $2.2 billion in 2028 revenue. $tgtx
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What does everyone think has better upside from current levels:
1. $MREO
2. $TGTX
3. $NTBL
4. $PRQR
I have my prediction of what will get the majority votes, but Iโm very curious to see which one wins the pollsโฆ
$MREO
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$TGTX
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$NTBL
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$PRQR
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Time to put some of the clear winners from the previous polls up against each other. At current levels, which name has the most upside โ๏ธ
1. $PDSB
2. $MREO
3. $XFOR
4. $LPTX
I have my predictions set, but let the polls talk ๐ค
Cheers ๐ป
$PDSB
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$MREO
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$XFOR
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$LPTX
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The partnership between $TGTX and Neuraxpharm brings forth a significant financial influx, paving the way for a bright future. The agreement's intricate structure ensures a substantial upfront payment along with potential royalties, marking a pivotal milestone for $TGTX.
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$JANX with some very subpar preliminary data could be used as a barometer for upcoming $NVCT data. Think 400-500% is a reasonably conservative estimate for small cohort on prelim. But it will definitely create an aura affect for market anticipating future readouts. Expect 30%+ RR
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Enter Ocrevus, where patients experience a wearing-off phenomenon before their next infusion. A compelling 61% of patients reported this phenomenon during ocrelizumab treatment. In this narrative, $TGTX's BRIUMVI emerges with advantages, providing a label with flexibility.
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Upcoming Data Release: The ORBIT Phase 2 study data is expected in the second half of the year, with a 14-month update anticipated around mid-year. This follows the October '23 update, which showed promising results after six to nine months of treatment. $MREO
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The 2020 collaboration with Ultragenyx involves $254 million in milestone payments and double-digit royalties for $MREO, which retains EU rights. Ultragenyx CEO has emphasized Setrusumab as their highest value program with the strongest data and highest success probability.
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THREAD on $XAIR: this took me a long time to compile; please correct me if you see anything that i'm incorrect on
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Alvelestat, licensed from $AZN, showed significant improvements in FEV1 and close to significant results on SVC in a small four-week trial for bronchiectasis. This positive data is supported by its mechanism of action targeting neutrophil elastase. $MREO
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An absolute game-changer for $GRVY - the approval for the Chinese market. This marks the inception of a fresh revenue stream, fortifying brand allegiance while intensifying global recognition.
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Big pharmaโs interest is keen, considering the efficacy and tolerability of VK2735. $PFE $AZN and others may find it more prudent to acquire $VKTX rather than develop lagging internal candidates.
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Unlike romosozumab, which has cardiovascular risks and is limited to one year of treatment in osteoporosis, Setrusumab has not shown similar risks and continues to be effective with ongoing treatment, suggesting it is suitable for chronic dosing in OI patients. $MREO
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$MREO FDA Clarity & Partnering: Seeking clarity on Phase 3 endpoints, a potential partner hunt now with FDA feedback. Ready for the next leap.
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Competitive Pricing: Briumvi is priced at $59k, making it the most affordable branded MS treatment.
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$NVCT when you look at Charlesโ track record from 5-10 years ago, itโs impeccable. He touted $AXSM @ $2; itโs high was $110, was very right about $KERX, was right about $TGTX for a long time (until two days ago). & now heโs taking the most concentrated pos of his career in $NVCT
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$VKTXโs market cap (~$6B) with ~$1B in cash indicates undervaluation. Their assets in obesity and NASH, both with high success probabilities, suggest substantial upside. Obesity market PYS alone could generate massive revenues. $VKTX
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$TGTX so itโs obvious shareholders wanted a BO, not a partnership, they didnโt beat revenue or earningsโฆ sure maybe an overreaction, but this is why I try to stay away from overcrowded names because then it mitigates risk of massive reactions like this
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Like, retweet, comment, follow me if you thought this thread & my other threads are helpful and informative :) $CLRB $AXSM $TSLA $ABUS $PDSB $LPTX $CRVS $XFOR $EFTR $MREO $TGTX $XAIR $PRQR $ARWR $OCUL $HROW $SLRN $MIST $LIFE $PFE $AZN $CRBP $NTBL $UNCY $MDXH $VKTX $CHRS $AMLX XBI
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Added another $10K worth of shares to my core $NVCT pos. W/ the recent insider buys, and the hopes of a Japan partnership agreement + data in August-September, I am feeling optimistic. Best of luck to the other fellow $NVCT investors Iโve had the privilege of getting to know :)
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colossal market. Amidst the speculative air, $MRK looms as a potential suitor for $TGTX. The prospect of a bidding war adds a layer of intrigue. As BRIUMVI charts its course, Symphony Trx data becomes the navigational tool, offering insights into the mkt dynamics & the potential
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With treatment. The ORBIT Phase 3 study is powered to demonstrate a 50% reduction in AFR. Even conservative assumptions for the placebo group's AFR suggest that Setrusumab could achieve statistically significant results with less than a 50% reduction $MREO
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In the symphony of MS treatments, $TGTX's BRIUMVI is taking center stage with anecdotes hinting at a revolutionary redosing interval. Unlike Ocrevus, BRIUMVI offers flexibilityโredosable at 5 months to 24 weeks, combating the wearing-off effect observed in Ocrevus patients.
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@HarveyGingras
@SpikeMilligan29
@WabKinew
Why are you bringing up First Nations nonsense up when weโre talking about the Israel-Palestine conflict? Zero relevance. Nice try Harvey. Keep both your chins up high! Maybe next time youโll come up with some better :)
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$MREO By pursuing a buyout and subsequently implementing LBO-style management, these funds could usher in a new phase of value creation for $MREO, possibly culminating in a substantial acquisition by a larger player in the biopharma sphere.
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$SRZN ~$1.55 per share cash/ no debt. 30M shares. Column Group with 30%. Down hard after Q2 update. Leader Wnt biology. 2 P1 drugs w data YE. Preclinical deal w BI. Runway just extended into โ25. CEO ex Jazz Pharma.
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Analysts estimate a 60-65% probability of success for Setrusumab in both the U.S. and EU, with peak sales projections of $1.5 billion and $1 billion respectively. Approval in these regions could generate substantial revenue for both $MREO and $RARE.
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$CLRB Recent data unveiling iopofosine's complete clonal clearance in a patient with relapsed/refractory WM & CNS involvement showcases its potential in more complicated treatment scenarios. Dr. Castillo's positive remarks further underscore the therapeutic value of iopofosine.
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$MREO Valuation Snapshot: $8-$12 now, $29 post-Setrusumab approval. Alvelestat is a billion-dollar program "when" approved.
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The current trade is crowded with high expectations for a quick deal, leading to volatility. Both long-term investors and traders can find opportunities here, provided they manage the inherent risks. $VKTX
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$ARDX The establishment of a dedicated nephrology sales force, comprising 60 representatives, amplifies Ardelyx's outreach to approximately 8,000 nephrology healthcare providers. This strategic approach is set to pave the way for early adoption of XPHOZAH.
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