Kristina Hooper
@KristinaHooper
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Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco. For disclosure, visit .
New York, NY
Joined December 2016
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The yield curve alone doesn’t paint a full picture of the economy. Here’s my list of other indicators to watch:
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Last week’s dovish Fed announcement was positive for stocks, but then weak economic data was released and the yield curve inverted, putting markets on guard:
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405
Is bitcoin a blossoming currency or the latest incarnation of tulip mania? I assess the positives and negatives in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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Oil prices recovered quickly after a drone strike on Saudi facilities — but why?
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As feared, talk of protectionism has escalated into talk of retaliation. I explore this week’s headlines in
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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The new US-China trade agreement seems positive, but is light on details:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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The US must address North Korea, but sanctions have not worked. So what comes next?
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US rhetoric with North Korea rattles capital markets, while Fed may soon have new leadership.
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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In US, Europe, mrkt sentiment doesn’t seem to match reality. I explore what’s driving markets in
#WeeklyMarketReview
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Japanese PM Shinzo Abe won a decisive victory. I discuss his mandate and more in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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Last week saw a change of heart from two key central banks – but are they enough to offset the global economic slowdown?
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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There are 10 key issues I’m watching closely in September. Find out what they are in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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Why haven’t geopolitical headlines rattled the markets? I discuss two main reasons in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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Some say a Phase 1 trade deal is a fait accompli. I don’t agree. Here’s why:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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After a positive week for stocks, markets brace for news on the Fed meeting, ongoing US-China trade talks, and the eurozone and Chinese economies:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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As central bankers met last week, Fitch voiced concern about US debt ceiling, and UK reported weak economic growth
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As the market roller coaster continues, I discuss five upcoming events that could possibly be the catalyst for more moves ahead. Read
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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This past year was positive for capital markets, but what about 2018? I offer my expectations in my
#2018Outlook
:
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Central banks and investors are grappling with uncertainty about the future of inflation. I discuss what we learned last week in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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In my new
#WeeklyMarketCompass
, I assess the road ahead after a turbulent first quarter. Here are five things I’m watching this month:
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News or noise? I assess today’s three major headlines and their potential to impact markets in the longer term:
#GlobalMarketCompass
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Today, countries are economically benefitting from our interconnected world. But that could change if protectionist policies come to the fore – whether they be trade or monetary policies. I discuss connections vs. protections in
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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Three market concerns have moved to the fore. I discuss populism, protectionism and pressure on debtors in the latest
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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Stocks dropped last week, but it’s not time to panic. It’s time to prepare. Learn more in my
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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As Halloween approaches, there are five main issues concerning investors. But I believe an October stock market sell-off looks unlikely:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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Stocks sold off last week on growing concerns about tariffs and a potential trade war. I offer my take and preview events that could prove useful for gauging global economic growth in
#WeeklyMarketCompass
:
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The Fed’s words seem to be conflicting with its actions. How are markets interpreting the situation?
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Last week brought news about health care, US jobs, future of France. I look at what’s next in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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As stocks swoon on political news, I examine ability of businesses and consumers to prop up market with spending:
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Emerging and developed markets are growing, but I look at 2 factors that could threaten global growth:
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Economic growth, central bank leadership will be key issues to watch in November. More in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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For 2020, I’m more optimistic about capital markets than economic growth. Find out why in my
#WeeklyMarketCompass
.
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#WeeklyMarketReview
: Despite geopolitical risks, volatility recently hit a 20-year low. I explore possible reasons
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Markets brace for potentially risky process of balance sheet normalization. Find out what we know from Fed so far:
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I highlight six key questions that I’m watching as December begins. Learn what they are in
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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Is bitcoin a digital currency or digital gold? I’d argue it’s more of a digital tulip.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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I spoke with
@PowerLunch
about the markets around the politics of the Trump agenda. Watch it now:
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I break down what we know, and what we don’t, about the new US-China trade agreement:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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I analyze five key items from last week, including the federal budget proposal, in my
#WeeklyMarketReview
:
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A Biden presidency, with a Republican Senate, could bring about a Goldilocks environment — tax hikes are unlikely, but the US is likely to return to a more traditional approach to trade policy, which could reduce market volatility.
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Yesterday I joined
@CNBCClosingBell
to discuss my earnings expectations for the quarter. Watch the replay:
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I sat down with CNBC’s
@PowerLunch
to discuss the state of the markets. Watch to learn why I believe the bias is upwards:
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To meet the demands of a rapidly changing industry, the financial services sector must approach recruiting with an eye toward diversity of thought and background. Here’s why:
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(1/3) On this Thanksgiving I am most grateful to our health care workers, first responders, and other front-line workers, including grocery store employees and teachers, for risking their lives.
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Global equities staged a strong comeback last week, but can it be sustained? I expect more volatility in the short term but am much more optimistic for a sustainable comeback in the long term.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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I expect stocks to end the year higher than where they are now, but the road ahead could be a bumpy one.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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This month has brought some bear sightings in markets all over the world. What might this mean for investors? I discuss three things to know about bear markets in my latest
#WeeklyMarketCompass
.
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With the growing demand for self-service retail,
@PopComSaaS
’s smart technology is providing solutions that blend the best of the ecommerce and brick-and-mortar experiences. Watch my discussion with Founder & CEO Dawn Dickson-Akpoghene.
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At the end of the day, we have to remember that an inverted yield curve doesn’t cause a recession; it’s just a good indicator that one is coming. Don’t forget there’s often a long lag time between inversion and recession. In my view, investors should not be panicking. (3/3)
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What’s on my list to watch for September? Brexit, the tariff wars, the yield curve, Italy and the Fed.
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Today’s US inflation report was NOT hot – it was just not cool enough for expectations. I am not rattled by it. Progress may be slower than expected but we are moving in the right direction. As I’ve said before, there will be imperfect data points on this journey, but we are
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High inflation and aggressive central bank tightening are not ideal. But when I think back to where we were in 2020, in the earliest days of fighting the pandemic, it’s clear that we’re in a different — and, to me, better — place today.
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Last week I joined Bloomberg Markets: At The Close on
@BloombergTV
to discuss the bias toward risk assets in the current environment and the role of central banks in mitigating increased volatility. Watch the full interview here:
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I believe investors need to stay prepared for a volatile autumn. How? By staying focused on long-term goals, not shorter-term fears.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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The Fed got their “bigger boat.” The rationale was, as I expected, not just the CPI but longer-term consumer inflation expectations. Frontloading rate hikes might make a “soft landing” more likely. It’s getting harder, but I believe it’s still possible.
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What’s in store for capital markets and global economic growth? Our Global Market Strategy Office explores this question, the role of central banks, and geopolitical disruption in our 2020 outlook. Read here:
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The UK and Europe face a potential double-dip recession while the US awaits the fate of Biden’s proposed stimulus.
#weeklymarketcompass
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(1/4) In my view, what is happening in markets is the clearest sign yet that there is real fear that trade wars can derail the economic expansion. In my estimation, the most accurate gauge of this is the 10-year US Treasury, and it is showing signs of real fear.
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75 is the new 25 – at least when it comes to central bank rate hikes. But I fear that too many 75 basis point hikes could be the recipe for a hard landing for the economy.
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April will be critical in assessing the global response to the coronavirus crisis. This week, I outline six issues I’m watching in particular.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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No major data releases last week, but lots of talk about health care and the Fed. I discuss in
#WeeklyMarketReview
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I expect the 10-year yield to reflect concerns in inflation which may mean more market volatility, but there are important factors in place that set global economies up for a strong rebound. Hear more in my discussion with
@OJRenick
of
@TDANetwork
.
“I would expect us to reach 2% well before the end of the year. The economy is hot, and I expect the $TNX to not just reflect concerns about inflation, but of course, growth expectations.”
👉
@KristinaHooper
on why she’s remaining “very, very optimistic” on economic recovery:
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Is the economy actually “super bad,” as some suggest? I believe some things are, like the Russia-Ukraine war and the price of oil. But there are items I would say are far from it: US employment, tariff reductions, and an easing of COVID lockdowns in China.
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What policy response is needed to combat the coronavirus crisis? My global team talks about what we’d like to see in terms of health care, monetary, and fiscal policies:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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As we enter a new lunar year, I am hopeful the ox is a metaphor for a strong, powerful global economy that gets moving amid the COVID-19 recovery.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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One overlooked provision of the tax reform bill is that 529 plans would be expanded to pay for k-12 private school tuition. This provision should help increase usage of 529s, an underutilized savings vehicle. (3 of 3)
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Pessimism is high for consumers, businesses, and financial markets in much of the world. This week, I provide seven reasons for optimism, including easing global supply chain pressures and some bright spots in US inflation data.
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Markets have been selling off amid continued coronavirus infections and recent oil pricing pressure. My colleague
@BrianLevitt
and I assess the potential impact on the current business cycle:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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Fed Chair Jay Powell’s assurances have given stocks free rein to run. Can last week’s rally continue?
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Always thankful for the extra hand while prepping for an interview with
@YahooFinance
. My oldest son stepped in as my “unofficial IT support technician” to help set up my laptop and fix my background banner!
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The Fed attempted to execute a balancing act today by hiking rates but presenting a more dovish stance going forward. Unfortunately, the Fed’s inflexibility on altering balance sheet normalization spooked markets.
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Have we hit market bottom yet? After another volatile week for markets, I address this question and more in my
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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As the parent of student-athletes, I’m so proud to announce that Invesco has become the
@NCAA
’s newest corporate partner. Best of luck to all student-athletes this season!
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Maintaining a long-term, diversified approach can sound boring in a world of skyrocketing cryptocurrencies and Reddit millionaires, but I believe it is crucial to achieving long-term goals.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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In the US-China trade war, I believe China is in a far better negotiating position:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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Just as I expected, tensions between the US and China have heated up, but I believe it’s far more bark than bite.
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Fed held rates steady - no surprise. The big question was whether the “dot plot,” which charts Fed members’ expectations, would still show a median expectation of three rate cuts in 2024. It did, just barely.
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How might the market impact of the Wuhan coronavirus compare with the SARS epidemic of 2003?
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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I believe the worst may be over for the Chinese economy, but the path to recovery for other global economies will vary:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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There are seven reasons I expect a powerful US economic recovery in 2021. Learn why I’m so optimistic:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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Is global trade entering an era of “vigilante protectionism”? I believe so. Here’s why:
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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As we get closer to the New Year, I’ll be watching these nine issues that could impact global markets.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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I joined
@YahooFinance
for a discussion about the impact of trade news flow on markets, the irrelevance of impeachment hearings at this juncture, and why emerging markets debt and equities look attractive right now. Watch here:
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I spoke with
@CNBC
about why I believe now isn’t the time to brush off geopolitical risk. Watch to find out why:
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In the first episode of the
@InvescoUS
QQQ
#InnovationNow
series, I had the pleasure of speaking with
@Akara_Robotics
, a startup AI company transforming the world of healthcare with social robots designed for retirement communities. Watch the interview:
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I believe that things are likely to get worse for the US economy before they get better, but I’m optimistic about a post-vaccine recovery.
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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Markets are clearly confused about how aggressive the Fed may get this year, and so we’ve seen the ugly month of April continue into May. But I do believe there is light at the end of the tunnel.
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The inversion of the 2-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve is worsening recession concerns, while a strong US jobs report may indicate recession is further away than expected. Just two of the indicators I’m watching as July heats up for global markets.
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They say “actions speak louder than words,” but the Fed is hoping that its words will be enough to anchor inflation expectations, and that aggressive actions won’t be necessary. Will it be successful?
#WeeklyMarketCompass
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As a global analyst, I’ve found that one can learn so much about economies and markets by visiting different countries, and it’s prepared me for working remotely. My team and I communicate regularly so we can share our insights on the opportunities and risks we are seeing.
#WFH
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