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Kirk Newcombe | Biz Process 🏴☠️
@KirkNewcombe
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Investor, operator, banker building process, automation, AI. Acquired NY's largest swimming pool holdco w/ 150 staff in Service, Construction, HVAC, Bulk Chems
New York, USA
Joined March 2014
@scottastevenson I’ll admit that I’m coming around to your argument, but I also think that we’re still in the bottom of the second inning. Lock in is real. But, what happens when that goes away?
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In the last week, I found myself on three different occasions defining words on X whose definitions rely heavily on context. It’s an important reminder that in order for us to function as a society we need to be able to stop, ask questions when we don’t understand, listen, and empathize. Too much debate happens because we’re not using the same vocabulary. "The limits of our language are the limits of our world." - Ludwig Wittgenstein
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@johns340 @MidwestREGuy Do you think a lender would’ve lent you the money if there wasn’t a government backing for the loan? Same question but asked a different way: Do you think the seller could’ve sold their business if there wasn’t a government backing for the loan?
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RT @EndresenHeather: @MidwestREGuy Yeah, 3-4x multiples are so “inflated”. 🙃 That’s what almost every SBA funded deal goes for. I worked…
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@EndresenHeather @MidwestREGuy I don’t think this is talked about enough Heather. Thanks for pointing it out.
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@STLChrisH Once people feel they can trust. Meaning, online process has enough impeccable reps that clients refer. Industries on average need to instill trust too. I feel we're farther off on that.
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@OneManLBO And, yeah, he was super busted up about it. Had a hard time even talking about it 3 years later. Engineer who literally put his name on the door, wasn't promised the moon when he sold, but still got rug-pulled. His life's work and retirement.
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Yeah, it was legit. My investors shat all over it too. They wanted me to buy in a hotter market aka Texas. "If the economy turns, you can just furlough the staff," they said. How little did they know that good technicians don't grow on trees. The PE fund has turned that company into an industrial services business. They now do power amongst other things. I see the trucks on the road and have such mixed feelings when I do. Coulda been me.
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Ha. I don't know about that. Just grinding. There are days that I wish I had closed on this commercial deal in had under LOI at 5x. It was half recurring maintenence contracts the rest was $50k to $100k installs, $1M ebitda, low growth market. Company eventually sold to PE and they screwed the seller so bad. Spoke to him years later and he was all messed up. He had out a lot of faith in them.
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Yeah, Jon and Heather are discussing whether the program is zero subsidy where in some cases the gov't is incurring a cost. One might argue that this cost is a subsidy even if up-front fees are paid by the borrower, but I don't have a horse in the race. And, agreed, the gov't doesn't provide liquidity. However, I will maintain that these programs do create liquidity. As in, businesses that otherwise wouldn't transact have a path to exit. Same word, different definitions/implications.
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@alsciola @MatznerJon @EndresenHeather Good call. But again, I'm not saying the approach is in question. I'm just saying that subsidies have many forms.
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@MatznerJon @EndresenHeather Well, I'm not suggesting that the mechanisms are identical. Just pointing out that if you believe the 7a is not zero subsidy then one could argue that a 1031 results in lower tax revenues for the gov which could be seen as a subsidy. Matter of perspective, of course.
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I think you both have this conversation sewn up tight. Mind you, it's worth keeping in mind that the other asset classes you list have their own federal support mechanisms. Real estate for example has the 1031 exchange and no, it's not a backing of a loan, however the 1031 is a tax shield that creates liquidity (i.e. makes it easy for somebody to sell at a price lower than they'd like or buy at a price that that's higher than they'd like) and theoretically improves society. Liquidity is ultimately what the SBA program provides, but through a different mechanism that's better suited small business transactions.
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