Kingfisher Investments
@Kingfisher6868
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Private family office/hedge fund since 2002. Investor in fixed income, equities, private equity, property & other. Fondness for emerging markets.
London, England
Joined December 2023
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Pinned Tweet
Sold out of
#THS
completely today. Modest 10.6% IRR but uninspired overall. Better opportunities elsewhere.
Berenberg cuts Tharisa price target to 120 (130) pence - 'buy'
Happy to hold 0.1% of this PGMs & chrome condensate miner at £0.76. Net cash. EV:EBITDA around 1.1x. Good profitability. Dividend yield around 5.3%. H1 2023-2024 results acceptable without being spectacular
#THS
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Afentra plc
#AET
@AfentraPLC
is by far the most exciting stock in our portfolio. Short sellers hurting badly in recent weeks. Still a lot of upside in our humble opinion.
Doubled our stake in
#AET
to 0.14% of the company. Good news about the Angola onshore bid round. But still a high-risk stock with lots of operational & other hurdles to vault over the coming years.
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Increased our stake to 0.22% this afternoon and may go up to 0.50% when we see some proper financials. The potential value creation here is breathtaking.
@AfentraPLC
#AET
Doubled our stake in
#AET
to 0.14% of the company. Good news about the Angola onshore bid round. But still a high-risk stock with lots of operational & other hurdles to vault over the coming years.
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Just taken a 0.1% stake in Colombia-based Arrow Exploration
#AXL
MC $100m EV $88m. Exploration by name but Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $10m & volumes since climbed to 3,600boed. Good cashflow. Low valuation multiples. And potential exploration upside.
Very excited.
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Doubled our stake in AXL to 0.2% this morning
#AXL
$AXL
Good luck to the team on the ground in Colombia
@corp_arrow
Just taken a 0.1% stake in Colombia-based Arrow Exploration
#AXL
MC $100m EV $88m. Exploration by name but Q1 2024 adjusted EBITDA of $10m & volumes since climbed to 3,600boed. Good cashflow. Low valuation multiples. And potential exploration upside.
Very excited.
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Congratulations to Afentra plc management on closing the Azule transaction in Angola
#AET
@AfentraPLC
An 8% share price movement makes this our largest single UK-listed equity holding. We may increase our 0.22% stake after the audited accounts are published in June 2024.
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This stock has been drifting upwards nicely in recent days. However, we need some solid financial & other updates about
#AET
(Afentra plc) from management. We will double our stake again if and when the time is right.
Doubled our stake in
#AET
to 0.14% of the company. Good news about the Angola onshore bid round. But still a high-risk stock with lots of operational & other hurdles to vault over the coming years.
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My 11th & newest individual equity investment is
#PTAL
@Petro_Tal
, the largest crude producer in Peru.
Strong cash balances. Forward PE ratio of a modest 4x. EV:EBITDA a bargain basement 2x. Regular dividend payments. 5x top line growth 2020-2023. Sales up nicely Q1 2024.
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Doubled our stake in
#AET
to 0.14% of the company. Good news about the Angola onshore bid round. But still a high-risk stock with lots of operational & other hurdles to vault over the coming years.
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End of May portfolio review. Best performing stocks in absolute terms since purchase.
1st Hochschild Mining
#HOC
2nd Costain
#COST
@CostainGroup
3rd Resolute Mining
#RSG
4th Afentra
#AET
@AfentraPLC
5th Liontrust Asset Management
#LIO
Cracking year. Sell in May and go away?
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Best performing stock in current portfolio:
#COST
@CostainGroup
Best performer in 2024:
#HOC
(Hochschild Mining)
Worst performer in 2024:
#JUP
(Jupiter Fund Management)
Most excited about:
#AET
@AfentraPLC
and
#RSG
(Resolute Mining)
One to be patient with:
#ENQ
@EnQuestplc
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JPMorgan raises Hochschild Mining target to 260 (240) pence - 'overweight'
+110% on this beauty already
#HOC
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Increased our stake in
@EnQuestplc
#ENQ
to 0.1% of the company.
Amongst the lowest EV:EBITDA & PE multiples on the market. Annual FCF similar to the current market cap. Potential to be net cash positive within 10-12 months.
Political risk, yes, but astonishingly undervalued.
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Topped up our
#PTAL
@Petro_Tal
stake after strong Q1 2024 numbers. EBITDA $72m, suggesting EV:EBITDA around 1.6x. Dividend yield 10%. Significant net cash. Share buybacks.
Only question mark is $155m 2024 capex projection & high 'riverbank erosion' spend. Need some clarity.
My 11th & newest individual equity investment is
#PTAL
@Petro_Tal
, the largest crude producer in Peru.
Strong cash balances. Forward PE ratio of a modest 4x. EV:EBITDA a bargain basement 2x. Regular dividend payments. 5x top line growth 2020-2023. Sales up nicely Q1 2024.
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Thungela Resources
#TGA
is more like an old friend than a share. Just increased our stake by 25%.
Large net cash balance. EV:EBITDA <1.0. Low PE ratio. Great cashflow from RSA & Australia. Dividend yield 14.9%. Share buybacks. Richard Bay & Newcastle coal prices in good place.
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Cracking little acquisition announced by
#PTAL
@Petro_Tal
today.
900 boed, purchase cost of $5m, group production increases by around 5%. Every little helps.
My 11th & newest individual equity investment is
#PTAL
@Petro_Tal
, the largest crude producer in Peru.
Strong cash balances. Forward PE ratio of a modest 4x. EV:EBITDA a bargain basement 2x. Regular dividend payments. 5x top line growth 2020-2023. Sales up nicely Q1 2024.
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Berenberg raises Hochschild Mining price target to 200 (170) pence - 'buy'
Berenberg raises Resolute Mining price target to 35 (30) pence - 'buy'
Couple of our firm favourites
#HOC
#RSG
@ResoluteMining
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Forgive us for using gangland terminology. The UK Conservative government has kneecapped
#ENQ
@EnQuestplc
& the 2025 Labour government threatens a bullet to the back of the head of our North Sea Oil industry. Goodbye jobs, skills, prosperity, energy security? To be continued...
Keeping the faith in
#ENQ
despite the kick in the teeth from Jefferies. We foresee a massive deleveraging over 2024-2025 from colossal FCF, assuming oil stays around $80. The ludicrous EPL is priced into bargain basement valuation multiples. And don't forget Malaysian volumes.
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Sold some
#RSG
@ResoluteMining
at £0.30 and now actively buying back at around £0.26 during market weakness. Future trading statements will show how cheap this stock is versus peers. Analysts predicting a tripling of EBITDA between 2023 and 2024.
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#ENQ
@EnQuestplc
share buybacks have started.
This share was one of my 'dogs' for months but I haven't sold a single unit. Colossal EBITDA & FCF. Bargain basement valuation multiples. Should be net cash positive by end of 2025. Plus share buybacks. Lots of 'Greta risk' though.
Brent up to $81.66 per barrel while we've been sipping sherry, munching on mince pies and watching reruns of Morecambe & Wise. Watch the oil stocks tomorrow morning. My fave is
#ENQ
at £0.1538. Topping up.
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Time for a summer spring clean
Goodbye for good to
#INDV
@IndiviorPlc
having lost faith & trust in management & the Board of Directors.
Farewell
#LIO
(Liontrust Asset Management). Been a good investment, nice chunky dividend. May return if SP drops below £6.
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JPMorgan raises Hochschild Mining price target to 240 (235) pence - overweight
Second best performer in my modest portfolio
#HOC
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@baroninvestment
Colossal FCF incoming. $410m net debt should be paid down in 2025 at current pricing. 2023 EBITDA of $825m set to increase. Let's take these funds and (1) reward shareholders, (2) diversify further overseas. Otherwise we risk quasi-nationalisation by the 2025 Labour government.
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Taken an opening position in Resolute Mining (operations in Senegal & Mali)
#RSG
Net debt down $46m in 2023 and now net cash balance. Hefty EBITDA of $162m and very low multiples vs industry peers. 2024 gold volumes expected to be 5%-10% higher and AISC projected to decline.
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@Riccardino999
#AET
is a near start-up with a credible management team, a good strategy & modest funds (potentially) operating in some of the world's toughest jurisdictions. The main risk is operational execution. Finding the opportunities, financing them & turning them into cashflow.
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"Hochschild Mining climbed 3.3% to top the FTSE 250 after BMO reinstated its "outperform" rating."
Nice one
#HOC
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Owning shares in
#COST
(Costain) is like having a reliable mate. Never flash or ostentatious. Sensible, straightforward & a bit cautious at times. Dedicated to self-improvement. Keeps a nest-egg in the bank for a rainy day. And few people seem to know about him. Thanks, mate.
#COST
(Costain) trading at £0.678. Don't forget that £0.594 of this valuation represents net cash on the balance sheet (£164m at the last count). Bargain basement share price. 54% up on this trade but holding on for more upside.
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Thanks, Hochschild Mining plc
#HOC
Sold a little bit down but holding most of the original stake & sitting on a 2x in under 3 months. Off to the pub for a bitter shandy.
It's your turn next, Resolute Mining Ltd
#RSG
@ResoluteMining
(Warning, this post may contain gloating)
Taken an opening position in
#HOC
to gain some gold & silver exposure. Brazil operations underway and should be economic within months. Net debt: EBITDA an acceptable 1.0x. EV: EBITDA around the 4.0x mark with AISC set to decline significantly 2023-2026.
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What a difference a week makes for
#TGA
. Richard Bay coal now $100 & Newcastle coal $131. MC $784m, net cash approximately $500m (DEC 31), EV $284m. PE ratio around 3x & EV:EBITDA sub 1x. Cheap. Dividend paying. Profitable according to my model. Entering buy territory fast.
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Barclays raises Hochschild Mining target to 205 (170) pence - 'overweight'
Barclays have woken up and smelt the coffee here
#HOC
Next trading update could be glorious
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Made
#ENQ
a Top 5 holding over the last 2 trading days. The 15% sale of Bressay & the FPSO is a potential game-changer. If the big swinging traders weren't swilling Pol Roger at the ski chalet, this stock would have crashed through the £0.20 barrier already.
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Our 16th shareholding is drug manufacturer Invidior plc
#INDV
Q1 2024 revenue +12% & forecasting net annual profit of $330m-$380m. Implies a modest PE ratio of around 6.9x mid-range. Share purchases underway. Main listing being switched to USA. Interesting summer ahead.
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"Berenberg cuts Hochschild Mining to 'hold' (buy) - price target 200 pence"
Holding on to 65% of our initial purchase for the time being. Best share in the portfolio in IRR terms.
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Not ready to get back into
#TGA
yet. PE ratio around 3x and EV:EBITDA ridiculously low based on 2023 prelims. But Richard Bay thermal coal now way down at $92 per tonne. Are the South African & Australian operations profitable in 2024? Can dividends be sustained? Too many doubts
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JPMorgan raises Hochschild Mining target to 235 (190) pence - 'overweight'
I love the smell of JPMorgan broker ratings in the morning...
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#LIO
(Liontrust Asset Management) has just blasted through the £8 barrier. £27b+ AUMA. Good brand. Profitable. Dividend yield around 9%. Valuation multiples not challenging. Yet seems to be on few investors' radar screens.
Sold down a minimal part of our holding at this level.
Used the market weakness to top up my
#LIO
levels at around the £6 mark. Liontrust Asset Management paid a £0.72 dividend last FY and SP has come down 75% in the past 2 years. Low forward PE & EV:EBITDA ratios by industry standards. AUM around £27bn. Long-term investment.
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Doubled our stake in
#RSG
@ResoluteMining
today after a solid Q1 2024 update. 76,351oz @ nearly unchanged $1,487 AISC despite a scheduled 2-week shutdown. Net cash up $20m. Unchanged forecasts re 2024 (345k-365k oz @ $1,300-$1,400). Very low valuation multiples. Large upside.
Taken an opening position in Resolute Mining (operations in Senegal & Mali)
#RSG
Net debt down $46m in 2023 and now net cash balance. Hefty EBITDA of $162m and very low multiples vs industry peers. 2024 gold volumes expected to be 5%-10% higher and AISC projected to decline.
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Had a nibble on
#FRAS
@FrasersGroupPLC
(14th stock in our listed portfolio). PE & EV:EBITDA ratios well below historical highs. Strong net income & FCF set to triple 2023-2025 (Deutsche Bank). £80m share buyback underway & management incentivised to push SP into £10-£15 range.
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#TGA
trading on EV:EBITDA multiple of 0.7x & PE 3.2x. Dividend yield 17.6% & share buybacks ZAR500m starting this week. Cash balances $543m. Decent results. Management team prioritising shareholder returns. 2024 volumes should be stable. Monitor thermal coal prices in RSA & Aus.
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RBC cuts OSB Group price target to 625 (650) pence - 'outperform'
Share price ticked up to £4.40 today. Trades on reasonable multiples & offers a 7.3% dividend yield. Decent growth in originations. Share buybacks. Good reputation amongst mortgage brokers. May add soon.
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Berenberg cuts Tharisa price target to 120 (130) pence - 'buy'
Happy to hold 0.1% of this PGMs & chrome condensate miner at £0.76. Net cash. EV:EBITDA around 1.1x. Good profitability. Dividend yield around 5.3%. H1 2023-2024 results acceptable without being spectacular
#THS
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Had a glance at
@centricaplc
#CNA
over the weekend. Huge net cash balance (£2.64b). Historic PE ratio of 1.9x. EV:EBITDA 0.6x. 3% dividend yield & £623m share buybacks last year.
Tempted, but forward PE ratio much higher & worried what the Labour government does after July 4th.
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Taken an opening position in
#HOC
to gain some gold & silver exposure. Brazil operations underway and should be economic within months. Net debt: EBITDA an acceptable 1.0x. EV: EBITDA around the 4.0x mark with AISC set to decline significantly 2023-2026.
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Strong update from
#ENQ
. Net debt reduction of average $20m per month in 2023. Group will be net cash positive in 2025 assuming (1) oil price remains around current levels and (2) no significant M&A. Poor share price performance in recent weeks but looking to add to our position
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@baroninvestment
A positive quarter (76,351oz @ $1,487 AISC) given the planned 14-day shutdown. Cost reductions clearly kicking in. Strong operational cashflow even at these volumes. Valuation multiples extremely low for the sector. Strong buy.
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Still think there's significant upside for
#MCB
(McBride). Net debt down £21m last 6 months to £146m. Revenue +9.8%. Good deleverage story over the coming years. Maybe EV: EBITDA 3x-4x & PE 5x within 1 year. M&A suitors must be tempted at these valuations? Holding.
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One of the relative 'dogs' of our portfolio is
#ENQ
@EnQuestplc
(-7%)
MC $356m, net debt $344m, EV $700m.
Net debt reduction over the past 16 months of $373m. EV:EBITDA <1.0. Malaysia volumes 18% of 43,600 boed total. $15m share buybacks underway.
Keeping the faith here.
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#COST
(Costain) remains unloved despite decent results. MC £187m net cash £164m EV £23m. Adjusted FCF £72m (2023), operating profit margin to rise from 3% (2023) to 3.5% (2024F) and then 4.5% (2025F). DY modest 1.8%. EV:EBITDA <1. PE ratio 5.6x. Strong order book. Hidden gem.
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Quick look at
#CAML
(Central Asia Metals). Copper, zinc & lead in Kazakhstan & N Macedonia. Profitable, well run & strong cash balance. Won't be investing yet though. Copper runs out in 10 years & dividend yield possibly not sustainable. Need an exploration find or M&A ASAP.
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Been a fan of Dr Martens boots since the punk era, when I was a wee lad. Love the style, durability, attitude & Britishness of the shoes.
Shares a nightmare since the IPO though. Indebted. Recent results awful. Forward PE high. Dividend modest. Avoiding for now
#DOCS
@drmartens
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@baroninvestment
Unconfirmed reports that ASX-listed QBE Insurance is a potential suitor. G'day shareholders.
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"Peel Hunt cuts Liontrust Asset Management to 'hold' (buy) - price target 750 pence"
Agree with this broker. Profitable asset manager with £27.25b AUM. Dividend yield 10.4% (£0.72 per share) looks sustainable. Forward PE 9.6x. Will continue to add around £6 & sell above £7.50.
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Barclays cuts Beazley price target to 880 (920) pence - 'overweight'
Keeping the faith in
#BEZ
@BeazleyGroup
Strong profitability & cashflow. Share buybacks. Valuation multiple not demanding.
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@baroninvestment
Thanks, Baron. This is the stock in my portfolio that excites me the most. Can't wait to get some numbers to plug into the spreadsheet though.
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Solid trading statement from
#LIO
(Liontrust Asset Management). Assets under management & advice stable at £28.2b (Q1 2024). Market & investment performance = net outflows of £1.2b. Market seems to like the stability after 18 months of turbulence. Hoping for 10%+ dividend yield.
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Keeping the faith in
#ENQ
despite the kick in the teeth from Jefferies. We foresee a massive deleveraging over 2024-2025 from colossal FCF, assuming oil stays around $80. The ludicrous EPL is priced into bargain basement valuation multiples. And don't forget Malaysian volumes.
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Doubled our stake in
#HOC
(Hochschild) today. EBITDA set to ramp up from $274m (2023) to $385m (2024 consensus) due to higher gold prices & production from lower cost Brazil mine. EV around $1b so multiples unchallenging. Silver price rises could send this stock flying.
Taken an opening position in
#HOC
to gain some gold & silver exposure. Brazil operations underway and should be economic within months. Net debt: EBITDA an acceptable 1.0x. EV: EBITDA around the 4.0x mark with AISC set to decline significantly 2023-2026.
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"Deutsche Bank starts Beazley with 'buy' - price target 873 pence"
Happy with that
#BEZ
@BeazleyGroup
RBC raises Beazley price target to 1,000 (975) pence - 'outperform'
The best BEZ since the Happy Mondays
#BEZ
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Made a tasty 46% absolute return on this overlooked stock (IRR: 254%) to date. Sold down 15% of the holding this morning to bank some profit.
McBride
#MCB
is one our biggest movers of the day for no obvious reason (+4%)
We were mocked for picking this stock but it's +25% in just over 2 months. Low valuation multiples. Good operational performance allowing net debt to be paid down. Hoping for a steady move towards £2.
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Possibly a little late to the party but taken an opening stake in specialty insurer
#BEZ
(Beazley plc). Colossal 2023 PAT of $1,027m on revenues of $5,601m (+7%). Q1 2024 revenues up a further 7%. PE ratio an unchallenging 5.3x & brokers forecast upside. Share buybacks of $325m.
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McBride
#MCB
is one our biggest movers of the day for no obvious reason (+4%)
We were mocked for picking this stock but it's +25% in just over 2 months. Low valuation multiples. Good operational performance allowing net debt to be paid down. Hoping for a steady move towards £2.
Still think there's significant upside for
#MCB
(McBride). Net debt down £21m last 6 months to £146m. Revenue +9.8%. Good deleverage story over the coming years. Maybe EV: EBITDA 3x-4x & PE 5x within 1 year. M&A suitors must be tempted at these valuations? Holding.
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@baroninvestment
Topping up my
#ENQ
levels if the chubby old fingers can work the keyboard post-Christmas
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Brent up to $81.66 per barrel while we've been sipping sherry, munching on mince pies and watching reruns of Morecambe & Wise. Watch the oil stocks tomorrow morning. My fave is
#ENQ
at £0.1538. Topping up.
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"China to drive global growth"
One of the 8 predictions by a large private bank for 2023. Sold our last remaining China investment this morning. The 'big boys' know as little as we do.
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Doubled our stake in
#MCB
(McBride) today for the reasons noted below. Hoping to see significant deleverage over the next 3 years. Challenge is for management to maintain the excellent results of July-December 2023. Valuation multiples could double in due course to sector norms.
Still think there's significant upside for
#MCB
(McBride). Net debt down £21m last 6 months to £146m. Revenue +9.8%. Good deleverage story over the coming years. Maybe EV: EBITDA 3x-4x & PE 5x within 1 year. M&A suitors must be tempted at these valuations? Holding.
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RBC raises Beazley price target to 1,000 (975) pence - 'outperform'
The best BEZ since the Happy Mondays
#BEZ
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@Riccardino999
@shareGBP
This stock wasn't on my radar screen until recent days. I like small caps (NED of an AIM-listed entity for a long time) but usually favour companies with a longer track record of cashflows. Happy to build up my holding at £0.50, £0.75, £1.00 etc if the deal flow is right.
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@WHUFCDUDE
We'll reassess this when we see a trading update or two. Certainly 2024 is a different beast to 2023 because of Mara Rosa (land of Paqueta), higher volumes, gold price, silver price. We penciled in £2+ when making the investment but this now looks cautious.
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Goldman Sachs cuts Burberry price target to 1,380 (1,450) pence - 'neutral'
This hasn't been our greatest investment to date. Looks cheap at sub-£10 per share though. Strong profitability. Good dividend yield. History of share buybacks. Excellent global brand. Keeping the faith.
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Questor in the Daily Telegraph
@TeleQuestor
has latched on to the deep value inherent in Costain
#COST
@CostainGroup
Kingfisher Investments is happy with its 0.13% stake & look forward to growing cash balances, improved profit margins & an enhanced dividend. Share buyback time?
#COST
(Costain) remains unloved despite decent results. MC £187m net cash £164m EV £23m. Adjusted FCF £72m (2023), operating profit margin to rise from 3% (2023) to 3.5% (2024F) and then 4.5% (2025F). DY modest 1.8%. EV:EBITDA <1. PE ratio 5.6x. Strong order book. Hidden gem.
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Strong update from much-maligned
#ENQ
(Enquest) today. 2023 EBITDA $825m. Net debt down to $410m (FEB 29). Trading on EV:EBITDA of bargain basement 0.9x. 2023 FCF $300m. Production up to 44,500 boed (2M 2024). Share buybacks of $15m announced. In for the long-term here. DYOR.
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Bit late to the party but just added
#OSB
(OneSavings Bank) to the portfolio. Growing loan book with good margins. Decent reputation according to my mortgage broker friend. Arrears balance 1.3%. Dividend paying. Low forward PE excluding EIR adjustment. Cash cow. Share buybacks.
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@baroninvestment
Second best performing stock in our portfolio. An absolute 'must have' given these valuation multiples and the growth prospects. DYOR.
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Taking an opening position in
#JUP
after some decent results. Dividend yield 11.2%. EV:EBITDA 1.1x. PE 5.8x (DYOR). Profitable company with strong balance sheet and decent brand name. Juicy dividends and ripe for takeover. Will add to the position throughout 2024.
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Haven't pressed the 'buy' button on
#HOC
just yet as want to see the Mara Rosa (Brazil) operations up & running. Could be transformational - new geography, more revenue & potentially significant AISC decline. Net debt levels manageable. Multiples reasonable. New management team.
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Used market weakness to top up one of my 'dog' shares, Jupiter Fund Management
#JUP
(-6%)
MC £404m. Net cash & investments £366m. EV £38m. EBITDA £109m. EV:EBITDA 0.35x. Dividend yield 12.4% (includes special).
Large fund outflows in recent years but £52.6b AUMA & profitable.
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@Mehtaphysical
@AfentraPLC
To be honest, no. We need to see the audited numbers next month and run some projections. But even then, there are too many unknowns. What upside is there from Azule, for example? I doubt even the engineers/geologists know the answer.
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Oops! Mystified by the collapse of the
#OSB
share price today and doubled our investment accordingly. Low PE multiple, high dividend yield, share buyback programme underway and growing loan book. I'm holding a chunk of this cash cow for the long term.
Bit late to the party but just added
#OSB
(OneSavings Bank) to the portfolio. Growing loan book with good margins. Decent reputation according to my mortgage broker friend. Arrears balance 1.3%. Dividend paying. Low forward PE excluding EIR adjustment. Cash cow. Share buybacks.
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Resolute Mining
#RSG
@ResoluteMining
is not a stock for the faint of heart. Strong fundamentals (see below) but today's SP dip puts the risks centre stage. Military government, new mining code, Islamists operating in the region & rumours of forced nationalisation. Buyer beware.
Taken an opening position in Resolute Mining (operations in Senegal & Mali)
#RSG
Net debt down $46m in 2023 and now net cash balance. Hefty EBITDA of $162m and very low multiples vs industry peers. 2024 gold volumes expected to be 5%-10% higher and AISC projected to decline.
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#COST
(Costain) trading at £0.678. Don't forget that £0.594 of this valuation represents net cash on the balance sheet (£164m at the last count). Bargain basement share price. 54% up on this trade but holding on for more upside.
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@baroninvestment
62% up on this one & not going anywhere (except the pub to celebrate). Thanks for your great analysis as always, Baron.
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