Working for peace, ethnic equality and end to military rule in Myanmar.
Education / research / local governance / security (see website).
English immigrant.
"Contested Political Authority in Post-Coup Myanmar"
This 2023 book chapter is now available for download on my website
From the wonderful ISEAS book edited by
@DrJustineC
and Michael R. Dunford
An overview of resistance governance + some theory
Don't forget Min Aung Haling signed a comprehensive agreement barring violence against civilians in 2015, with UN, EU, China, Thailand, India & Japan.
The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement.
Without external monitoring and enforcement it is just a fiction.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Diplomats keep warning us about Myanmar becoming like Syria.
First of all, thank you but Myanmar is not Syria. We are already in a civil war for seven decades without any proxies.
Second of all, we have the right to decide what we want. And we don't want SAC at all.
THREAD
As
#Myanmar
Army burns villages in Sagaing...
Let's discuss the 'four cuts' strategy and community resilience to it
4 cuts is NOT about cutting resources to civilians. No.
Civilians ARE the resource that is being cut.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
2 months ago, the biggest threat to 00s of schools run by KNU & partners was being forced to give up Karen language and culture in return for minimal gov support.
Now they are being bombed by jets for protecting protestors and supporting democracy in
#Myanmar
#Mar30Coup
THREAD
@TheEconomist
seems to claim we are 'post-truth' in Myanmar becayse local and social media are overhyping successes of resistance
This seems like a straw man and is deeply misleading about the situation on the ground
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Must read.
"[Ppl in cities were shocked] the first time they saw a Tatmadaw sniper target a woman who was only buying snacks in the street..
We know they shoot to kill. We are not shocked. We are sad, but we are not shocked.”
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Could we see the beginnings of transnational solidarity (already established between Hong Kong and Thai pro-democracy protests) next spread to
#Myanmar
. Myanmar society, students and youth are probably more organised and better connected than ever before.
#Myanmarcoup
Wow. The day after at least 9 were killed in Aung Ban. Shan State, huge crowds are on the streets calling for an end to dictatorship, including a procession of farmers.
Winds of change and waves of hope once more as
#Myanmar
becomes ever more united.
A rare sight as masses across the country come alive with concern and encouragement for people facing extreme violence in ethnic conflict areas.
#HelpMindat
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#May15Coup
The strategy of the Tatmadaw has always been to divide and rule... [Now] there is a people’s rebellion in the center of
#Myanmar
, if the EAOs were to combine even loosely... very, very significant problem for Tatmadaw.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Apr9Coup
#Myanmar
army reportedly fired 3 times at Restoration Council of Shan State's (RCSS's) Loi Kaw Wan base on the Thai border (near to Loi Kaw Wan IDP camp).
Yesterday at 6pm.
#Apr18Coup
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Reportedly, Russia and China are the only 2 countries sending representatives to the
#Myanmar
Armed Forces Day ceremony tomorrow.
Thailand, Singapore, Korea are among 50+ countries who refused to send delegates, according to this Kokang source.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
The
#Myanmar
junta's strategy from start to finish is based on the same gambit:
"We can be more brutal than you...
We can be more shockingly hurtful and terrifying than you"
That is all they have. But it knows no bounds.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Apr18Coup
The mouthpiece of Junta published the picture of protestors who are clearly appeared to be tortured and beaten in humanely while in detention and interrogation. Junta clearly challenge the basic rules of being human.
@SchranerBurgen1
@RapporteurUn
@UNGeneva
Never forget this incredible and impassioned speech from Chinese-Myanmar woman calling for democracy, freedom and recognition as citizens after son was killed for protesting.
Most people of Chinese heritage cannot get full citizenship under 1982 law.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
The world's response to Ukraine highlights double standards in the global defence for democracy (and protection of civilians under attack)
But it also provides crucial lessons for Myanmar's elected
@NUGMyanmar
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
These young protesters shows up peacefully at the Embassy every day. We think they deserve a future in a democratic Myanmar. We stand with the people of
#Myanmar
to reinstate the democratically elected government
@JeppeKofod
@udviklingsmin
@DanishMFA
It is hard to say when the military junta will fall, but surely it is failing... With the new level of political awareness... the people of
#Myanmar
will be able to redeem themselves, restore democracy, and lead the way to a new dawn.
#Apr8Coup
Striking workers managed to shut down the military-controlled
#Myanmar
Oil and Gas Enterprise, Myanmar National Airlines, mines, construction sites, garment factories, and schools, creating economic costs for the military rulers.
@ILRF
#Feb27Coup
Federal Union Army concept has long history.
A Karen FUA soldier; Feb 2015.
One of a select number of FUA troops from KNDO (KNU), DKBA, TNLA, SSPP, MNDAA and other EAOs, coordinated by the United Nationalities Federation Council.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#22222revolution
Arakan Army:
"After we defeat the military dictatorship, we strongly believe that we can all eventually construct a better political system for the country."
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Myanmar resistance in 2021: "Our united front is gonna bring down the military in a few years, initiating a transition to fed democracy. Please prepare."
Foeign leaders in 2021: "Meh.. doubt it"
Foeign leaders in 2023: "Oh my! We are so unprepared."
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
KNU's head of foreign affairs Padoh Saw Taw Nee said the group is "cautiously optimistic" about the CRPH's promise for federalism.
"We just have to work together with them," he said.
"There are lots of obstacles but we are trying to find a way to overthrow our common enemy."
The Joint Strategy Team (Kachin CSOs who lead the humanitarian effort in Kachin and N. Shan)
- Seriously concerned for IDPs
- Hundreds tested positive in SAC and KIO controlled areas
- People in KIO areas refusing to take vaccine due misinformation
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
FAKE NEWS WARNING
This image of an Federal Union Army soldier was taken in January 2015.
Here is the meta data.
Some people have been using this photo to spread minsinformation on Facebook.
Please learn history & take care
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Apr2Coup
#MyanmarCoup
Timing is absolutely crucial.
#Myanmar
may not experience such a groundswell of determined political action again for many years and it is in these short windows of opportunity that entire eras can be shaped.
My latest, for
@Diplomat_APAC
#Feb18Coup
[Arguing that resistance is impossible due to the SAC's est. 350,000 troops] is a gross oversimplification and gives a false impression that the Tatmadaw is in an inherently strong position."
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Jun21Coup
#Myanmar
THREAD
Myanmar military chief admitted that he has lost control in 132 (40%) out of 330 of the country's townships.
This was given as justification for extended state of emergency and puts sham elections in doubt.
#whatshappeninginMyanmar
The Karen National Union Vice President, General Secretary and foreign affairs officials signal cooperation with NUG on morning of the Acting President's declaration of war.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Sep7Coup
THREAD – As junta defeats to united resistance forces continue to snowball, the regime has minimal capacity to respond with ground offensives.
MAH has demonstrated huge deficit in strategic capacity since 2021, which is now more visible than ever.
#WhatsHappeninginMyanmar
These ceasefires have no transparent rules and no mechanisms for solving disputes or monitoring.
#MyanmarMilitary
claimed to have a ceasefire everywhere except for
#Rakhine
State for over a year and continued shelling villages, attacking EAOs etc.
#Mar31Coup
Breaking: Myanmar junta’s military announces one-month nationwide ceasefire and suspension of its operations unilaterally from April 1 to 30, except “defending from actions that disrupt government security and administration.”
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Heard that KIA attacked 2 Tatmadaw bases in Hpakant today. Reportedly, cleared at least 1.
KIO could see opportunity to retake ground lost over past decade.
Multiple fronts with EAOs would stretch and weaken Tatmadaw considerably.
#Myanmar
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Mar11Coup
Hpakant Township It is reported that the KIA attacked and cleared a base of the Coup Council in Seizin village this morning.
The KIO / KIA is a Kachin ethnic group based in Kachin State and northern Shan State that has not yet signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA).
Incredible tale, told in graphic form, of a young woman who joined
#Myanmar
's first all woman armed revolutionary organisation, the Myaing Women Warriors.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
"A core of territories controlled by resistance movements committed to the goal of federal democracy is emerging."
New paper by Naw Show Ei Ei Tun and me, explores the local governance systems in Myanmar's 'ethnic' areas.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Karen National Liberation Army Brg. 5 claims:
- Killed 200 TMD troops in late March
- TMD killed 14 and injured 28 civilians with air strikes, and stole 50 lakhs + property&food from community
- 400 BGF troops with TMD
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Myanmar
"U Kyaw Moe Htun warned at the UN General Assembly that all short-term solutions will sustain military administration and encourage the cycle of violence and instability."
Crucial message.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
From Dr. Sa Sa's Facebook:
Early reports of mass surrender Myawaddy's central infantry battalion (275).
Word on social media is that 400 troops surrendered
Myanmar telecomms have been down there for a while
Yesterday, LIB 357 at Than Gan Nyi Naung reportedly fell ,like Lay Kay Kaw a few days ago.
This was a pretty good summary of why blasé calls for dialogue are unhelpful when a military state with billions of dollars, fighter jets and 34 weapons factories is expending all its resources to incarcerate & kill every last political opponent & critic it can catch.
#Sep8Coup
As a diplomat, I have always supported dialogue, but the Tatmadaw is beyond reason. I see no value in dialogue with them until and unless they recognize they cannot win and make clear they are looking for a way out.
THREAD
UN Special Envoy calls for non-military-led dialogue with all parties to agree a power sharing agreement as first step towards long-term military transformation.
Reasonable common sense suggestions but lack attention to practical realities...
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
"
#Myanmar
’s conflict is not a binary civil war with both sides enjoying support from swathes of the population.
The Myanmar population is waging a revolution against... the murderous dominance of one institution."
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
Dear Myanmar-focused Twitter,
Can we go back to actually discussing
#WhatIsHappeningInMyanmar
rather than endlessly discussing all the bad international takes, i.e.
#whatisnothappeninginMyanmar
Ignore the numpties! Focus on the actual revolution and Tatmadaw abuses etc.
"People from the mainland and the mountains are united!!"
Beyond technical capacities, troop numbers, leadership qualities and all else - this simple reality is why the Spring Revolution is changing history and keeps going from strength-to-strength.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Which of Naypyitaw's 500 infantry battalions full of trained rapists are you hoping to "partner" with to deliver "gender-based violence response services".
Go work for a bank and get some strong sleeping pills, you mindless shill.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
I'm at the administrative capital, Nay Pyi Taw, in
#Myanmar
, discussing how
@UNFPA
can continue to effectively serve women & girls with access to sexual & reproductive health services & gender-based violence response services, including psychosocial support to survivors.
Myanmar's junta's core power base is disintegrating:
1) Ideological officer corps
2) Buddhist Extremist elements of sangha
3) Bought off ethnic business militia
Key figures from all three blocs are railing against Min Aung Hlaing, if not the military as a whole
As part of the Acting President's declaration of war, NUG announcements today include:
- State of Emergency
- PDFs to launch attacks in line with 7-point military code of conduct
- Public to stock necessities; end all non-essential travel
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Sep7Coup
Critical story on a US gun enthusiast using faux CIA credentials to train
#Myanmar
activists in highly problematic methods, including home-made indiscriminate weapons.
Some of my thoughts below 👇
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
#Sep9Coup
Maung Saungkha:
"After we’re done with northern Shan State, we’ll extend to other areas along with the fighters for the Spring Revolution.
These are the things that we, as well as the defence ministry officials of the NUG... have to work hard for."
Best maps on control of Myanmar I have seen since the coup.
Very revealing emphasis on roads and areas of junta freedom as basic metrics.
Junta is simply not the "de facto authority" that the UN and neighbours WANT it to be.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Neat video from Ner Dah's KNDO HQ where new KNDO recruits and PDF volunteers are training.
Reports 7,000 PDF in Karen State alone.
[N.B. KNU are not separatists - they are calling for a Federal Democratic Union and claim to stand for Karen nationwide.]
PROTEST SAFETY
Advisable clothing and protective gear, now translated.
Thankfully, protests seem PEACEFUL so far, so no need for alarm. But preparation still key.
More translations coming.
#Myanmarcoup
#myanmarmilitarycoup
Only 10 funeral service groups are now left in Yangon to help the city’s poor
"...we have to take care of about 45 funerals each day,”
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Whether deep fake or a forced confession, it is not credible evidence of anything unless there is a trial with due process and under the rule of law.
Who is their audience for these things? A small cadre of underlings who need to be vindicated?
#Myanmar
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
If the potential of this... moment drains away in the coming weeks, these people will be forced to go back to work under an authoritarian government they despise, as the economy collapses along with their dreams and aspirations.
It is time to act.
Dramatic scenes in Rakhine State, as AA has made completely unheard of gains against the junta and people are panicking and evacuating from Sittwe.
The scale of these events arguably exceeds 1027 and certainly most other conflicts of last 50 years.
THREAD 1/7
We talk a lot about the regime, the military, the Tatmadaw, but we perhaps do not talk enough about the dictator Min Aung Hlaing.
This one man, who....
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Nov16coup
Myanmar Now has posted the location of MAH personal house. Not bad for a honest soldier salary of 2000$ a month. 🙄🙄
Comes with a tennis court, a pool and a VIP Mytel tower.
Next is his deputy in crime, Soe Win house.
19.858873, 96.324886
Kudos to whoever put the label there.
While
@TheEconomist
snears at Myanmar's revolutionaries for "retreating" when the enemy advances
Millions of people across Myanmar are still giving all their savings, property, sons and daughters up for a better future.
They have not "drunk kool aid". They are making progress
5 patterns that show systematic nature of junta violence:
1) High number of head shots - not accidents
2) Widespread placement of snipers
3) Extrajudicial killings (after arrest)
4) Non-stop terrorising of neighbourhoods
5) Widespread detention w/o charge
#MyanmarPoliceBrutality
URGENT HUMANITARIAN NEED
#MyanmarMilitary
informed
#Thailand
it will attack RCSS border bases, which are near 5 IDP camps housing 6,000+ Shan IDPs
"IDPs prepared bunkers in all camps, and are carrying out evacuation drills."
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Actions taken by Kokang police force / BGF to support democracy movement:
- Buying food and drink for protestors
- Social media
- Withdrawal of personnel from Lashio
- Sheltering NLD members.
Let's hope more paramilitary and militia across country do same
#Apr12Coup
#Myanmar
Many of these flying death machines have been terrorising civilians in
#Myanmar
for more than a decade.
The export version of Mi-24 (Mi-35) regularly fires on villages and fleeing people, while Su-30 variants bomb entire communities almost every day.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
- 4 helicopters, including Mil Mi-24/35, Mi-35, Mi-8
- 2 Sukhoi Su-34
- 2 Sukhoi Su-30SM
- 1 Sukhoi Su-25
All downed by 🇺🇦Ukrainian troops. Not a bad prey for just one day.
"All parties must stop carpet bombing civilian settlements"
"All parties must stop burning old women alive"
"All parties must stop training armies of meth addicts to rape women in front of their relatives"
"All parties..." Oh wait, do we really need to focus on "all parties"?
.
@UNinMyanmar
expresses deep concern at the recent attack by an unknown group on
@AHACentre
convoy &
@ASEAN
diplomatic members, in Shan State. Violence in Myanmar continues to escalate. We call on all parties to respect human rights law & facilitate unhindered humanitarian access
THREAD on
#Myanmar
army sending 2 large convoys (80+ trucks each with armoured vehicle escort) to Chin State.
- HUGE human rights / humnitarian concern
- Potential int' security concern for
#India
- Unlikely to be strategic victory for MM military
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Today is a moment of reckoning for Myanmar public opinion.
NUG supporters have spent much of the week calling for a silent strike today 10am-4pm.
The junta has tried threats, orders and violence to stop it.
The people remain in defiance of the coup
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Myanmar’s general public joins “nationwide silent strike” on Friday as a show of solidarity with the anti-junta movement to restore civilian rule. Streets are mostly now gone empty, usual crowded markets are closed today in Yangon and major cities.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Adding the part from 88-2011 where KNU, KNPP and others sheltered thousands of protestors, facilitated huge exile democracy movement in Thailand, devlpd ABSDF, set up DAB, and then refused ceasefires for 2 decades in name of democracy, at great sacrafice.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
2. EAOs did little to support previous civil uprisings vs Burma/Myanmar military. Failure to join in 1988 uprising other than sanctuary for fleeing students. Failure to support 2007 “Saffron Revolution.” Few EAOs spoke out against 2016-17 govt/mil genocidal attacks on Rohingyas.
The City of Monywa in Upper Myanmar declares self-administrative city today. In the announcement, it is described that the city of Monywa will only be accountable to
@CrphMyanmar
.
Photo: Credit
Myanmar's central emergency is the total war being waged by the isolated military against its own people.
The Myanmar people need concerted and pro-active diplomatic, humanitarian and political support.
Nothing will be less stable and more chaotic than continued junta rule.
Remiscent of 1994 when Thai authorities forced Mon refugees back to halockanay area as part of effort to pressure New Mon State Party to sign ceasefire.Tatmadaw attacked again shortly after.
#KNU
is very troubled to hear the emerging news that local Thai authority is asking the civilians to return to their current IDP Camp, Ei Thu Hta. Tamadaw air attacked the area in the past few days. We call on the Thai authority to accept them on humanitarian grounds. Photos:KWO
"We were only approached by representatives of
@UNOCHA
to provide a "safe passage" for the planned assessment already agreed among themselves."
KNU, KNPP, CNF and NUG on the shameful efforts by ASEAN and the UN to legitimise the junta with aid.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Therefore, supporters and observers should not be quick to judge the NUC's inclusiveness based on how many ministers it has from different organisations or ethnicities alone.
The entire movement is much wider than the Exec branch of the NUG and is represented on the NUCC.
Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces are starting their push on Loikaw.
Words from Khun Bedu hopefully heard by commentators who continue the trope that ethnic forces are only interested in "local autonomy" etc.
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
New SAC-M paper demonstrates how the junta has lost "effective control", which is a key factor in international recognition of governments.
Many international actors incorrectly consider the junta to be "de facto authorities".
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
The KNU's most powerful district: Mu Traw / Hpapun / Brg. 5
- Will govern their autonomous area with Kawthoolei system, providing services to best of their capacity.
- Will not come under SAC or CRPH authority
- Will keep working for a federal system
#Feb26Coup
#Myanmar
While
#Myanmar
junta chief has been barred from ASEAN-China dialogue and has refused to send ambassador...
National Unity Government Minister
@hkalen
will be plenary speaker at ASEAN's 3rd climate and disaster resilience summit this week.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Nov22Coup
Even though many
#Rakhine
people support... calls for the formation of a NUG and a Federal Army to defeat the junta...
[They] are considering first of all how best to ensure their own survival.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#Apr16Coup
#China
is trying to downplay fears in
#Myanmar
about Chinese technicians arriving to set up "Great firewall" style internet controls.
Denies "rumours" of IT staff arriving - claims it was just seafood delivery.
#Myanmarcoup
#CivilDisobedience
Having been silent since Feb 1
#MyanmarCoup
, the
@Arakanarmy1Army
has come out condemning the "cruel and unacceptable" actions of the police and military.
“It is a great sadness that innocent people are being shot and killed all over
#Myanmar
Myanmar IS in crisis because an elected government that won a landslide was suddenly put in jail (didn't happen in Syria).
Myanmar IS developing a pretty unified opposition movement including the elected government and dozens of key armed groups and political parties.
I could not agree more.
ASEAN's abject failure in Myanmar is symptomatic of its failure at everything beyond free trade deals that send its wealth abroad.
While the region sinks and chokes, governance is illusive.
This is why MM revolutionaries talk of revolutionising ASEAN
Suspension of outward visas now further trapping ppl in Myanmar amid a security, political and health catrastrophe that is claiming thousands of lives per day.
I don't know what to feel other than guilt at my privelege.
We just have to keep working.
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
Early, UNVERIFIED reports of 29 drone attacks on Nay Pyi Taw
16 on the city (rumours of Min Aung Hlaing's house) and 12 on the air base southeast of the city.
One PDF source said that it was a dircetive from NUG's Ministy of Defence, who will release a statement later.
"All international stakeholders should know that the Prayut-led government's position on Myanmar does not represent the collective view of the majority of Thai people."
#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
.
There are significant shifts underway in the Karen region, as the Karen BGFs led by the warlord, business tycoon and Myanmar Army colonel, Maung Chit Htu, decouple from the Myanmar army.
The BGFs have stopped taking salary, claim neutrality
#WhatsHappeninglnMyanmar
I received the news this morning that Karen Border Guard Forces
#BGF
under the command of Col. Chit Thu will not take salary from SAC anymore. Thai PBS reported this news today as well. BGF is preparing for the attack of SAC, according to the news.