Kevin Hermann
@KevinH_F1
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F1 data analyst at PACETEQ Editor Motorsport Network Germany
Joined April 2022
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Well done to Charles Leclerc for a great tyre management race, which made his one-stop-strategy possible. He had by far the least degradation of all drivers. Also note:
-Magnussen also with only one stop
-Piastri struggled a lot with the tyres in comparison to Norris
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324
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Race pace
#JapaneseGP
-Verstappen 3 tenths faster than the rest
-adjusted for different strategies, Leclerc fastest behind Red Bull
-strategy mistake costs Norris at least one position
-Hülkenberg with best pace in midfield
-Alpine incredibly slow
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
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2K
Same graphic, now just for the drivers:
- Leclerc best tyre manager so far✅
- RBR and Aston drivers improved their quali pace, but have higher deg than last year – what helps over one lap could backfire in the race
- Bottas, Gasly and especially Stroll tend to struggle
#F1
5
96
568
After another poor qualifying performance from Sergio
#Perez
, I had a look at Max Verstappens Red Bull teammates so far. Actually Checo is on the verge of setting a new negative record for the biggest deficit over one lap.👀👇
#AustrianGP
#F1
7
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333
Tyre adjusted longrun pace
#BelgianGP
-PIA fastest, NOR 2nd
-RBR quite a bit slower, mostly due to higher tyre deg (see next post)
-Ferrari ahead of MERC despite low engine mode (9 kph were missing to NOR on avg.)
-Alpine looks fast with topspeed setup
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
4
12
294
Tyre adjusted longrun pace
#BritishGP
-Norris marginally faster than Verstappen
-Mercedes with good pace as well
-Ferrari remains fourth force
-Haas is normally very slow in Friday longruns, therefore Hülkenbergs pace was very promising
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
2
12
261
Tyre adjusted longrun pace
#HungarianGP
-NOR fastest, PER close behind
-According to our data at
#PACETEQ
, Red Bull showed by far the least tyre deg of the top teams, which could be very handy on Sunday
-Mercedes 3rd, Ferrari 4th force
-GAS & ALB very likely with less fuel
#F1
3
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247
Longruns from FP2
#AustralianGP
-Ferrari fastest despite low engine mode
-McLaren very consistent and fast
-Only 4 laps from Verstappen, which makes RBR hard to judge
-Mercedes with disappointing pace
-Teams saved hard tyres for the race
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
6
22
226
Race pace (strategy adjusted):
- Norris with great pace
- Piastri struggled with tyre deg and damage in second part of the race
- Ferrari slower than expected
- Mercedes with not really much race pace at all
- Alpine better than in last races
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
#ChineseGP
8
12
215
Race pace
#AustralianGP
-Ferrari wins, but McLaren not far away
-Perez with no pace and huge tyre degradation
-Russell's long 2nd stint hid true Mercedes pace a bit
-Long stops prevent Sauber from chance to score points
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
9
14
151
Longrun Analysis from
#FP2
at the
#BahrainGP
Surprises:
-Gaps look closer than expected after testing
-McLaren found race pace after awful Piastri race sim on day 3 of testing
-Alpine is really last
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
4
13
137
Tyre deg:
- Aston Martin with big issues again
- McLaren and Ferrari with great management, which made the one stop possible
- Red Bull rather further back as Verstappen was managing, but Perez lost a straight battle to Norris
- Sauber continues to struggle with tyre deg
3
12
134
Race pace
#CanadianGP
-Verstappen the fastest driver, Norris only 0,03 sec./lap on avg. slower
-nobody got the tyres up to temperature as quickly as RBR (see SC restarts)
-Mercedes with best pace in the dry
-despite wet weather setup, Sauber with no pace
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
9
18
120
Strategy adjusted race pace
#AustrianGP
👇
-VER faster than NOR
-Mercedes & Ferrari 4 tenths behind
-HAM & PER with slower pace due to damage
-P6 for LEC was possible (even with first lap incident)
-Alpine couldn't show true potential (stuck in DRS train)
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
6
3
116
More longrun aspects, especially tyre deg, which was incredibly high:
-Partly different approaches
-RBR with clear problems compared to other top teams
-RIC and TSU very likely with different setups (TSU was over 7 kph faster on the straights, but RIC was way faster)
#F1
3
11
106
The tyres played a key role in the race with some interesting observations:
-Red Bull with the worst tyre deg
-McLaren and Aston Martin with good management
Looking at all the data, I would doubt that Verstappen would have won without the retirement, but we'll never know.
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100
Longruns from FP2
#SaudiArabianGP
-Verstappen fastest
-Ferrari turned the engine down again (unusual low topspeeds)
-Aston not competitive compared to one lap pace
-very low tyre degradation across the field (expect an easy one stopper)
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
4
5
95
How long does the average pitstop take in 2024?
- RBR the fastest with an avg. of 2,32 seconds!!!
- fastest stop of season: 1,90 - Verstappen in China
- The avg. Sauber pitstop on the other side takes over 10 seconds
- Haas, Williams & Alpine tend to be slower than the rest
#F1
2
10
88
Some facts about Ferrari, because they could be a real contender this weekend:
-low engine mode as usual on Friday
-Therefore longrun + one lap pace look very promising
-Ferrari makes up most of time in braking zones and slow corners
-low tyre deg, which will help in the race
2
7
85
Racepace from
#SaudiArabianGP
-RBR further ahead than in Bahrain
-BEA on avg. 6 tenths slower than LEC
-Merc disappoints (no corner pace, but fast on straights)
-Midfield pace compromised by traffic behind MAG
-low tyre deg leads to boring strategy & race
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
6
6
82
Strategy adjusted race pace
#BelgianGP
-RUS fastest (great tyre management)
-Huge deg on Mediums, that's why VER is 4th strategy adjusted (RBR used them 2x)
-1st stint was about managing, 2nd & 3rd stint showed true pace (FER too slow)
-MCL too much deg
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
9
7
74
Strategy adjusted race pace
#HungarianGP
-NOR fastest due to great last stint
-VER stuck behind HAM, otherwise 3rd fastest
-PER with great pace in free air (just half a tenth / lap slower than PIA in last stint)
-Racing Bulls with great tyre management
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
1
12
73
Race pace from the Sprint:
-Verstappen miles ahead due to better tyre management and traffic behind Alonso
-Sauber fastest midfield team
-similar pace causes DRS trains throughout the field
Data from PACETEQ
#ChineseGP
#F1
1
7
70
#Vettel
or
#Alonso
?
Who would win an inter-team duel at
#AstonMartin
if it came to it?🤔
The data from 2022 and 2023 clearly says: Alonso!🇪🇸
Projected, he would be about one and a half tenth faster in the race, and only about one tenth faster in qualifying.🚀
#F1
#PACETEQ
5
6
67
But don't underestimate Ferrari.
They were on avg. 8 kph down in the speed trap, which is unusual based on the data from recent years and the test last week. Seems they turned their engine down, also in the quali sim.
But Alpine are not sandbagging, they are really that slow!👀
6
4
65
The tyre deg graphic also has some surprises as seen below.👇
But caution: Teams did different procedures and really tried to push hard to see what the maximum tyre deg will be like.
Looking at the drivers, Leclerc had the best tyre management, but Verstappen wasn't far behind.
1
6
60
But don't underestimate Red Bull, because VER looked very good in the longrun except of two straights (down to turn 9 and 11). VER lost around 7 tenths alone there.
You can see the sudden drop of straight line speed in comparison to Leclerc below via
@f1_tempo_
.
4
3
54
Race pace on wet tyres:
-NOR fastest due to great pace on drying track (MCL saved tyres in first part)
-wet tyre gamble nearly paid off for Haas (first stop took 8,6 sec.)
-FER too kind to the tyres
-engine issue cost LEC more than 0,6 sec. in last sector alone in some laps
#F1
0
11
50
Racepace of the
#BahrainGP
-Verstappen in 1st never really flat out
-Ferrari clear number 2
-Hülkenberg with great race pace
-Alpine last
Data from
#PACETEQ
#F1
5
5
49
Same graphic, now for the quali pace:
- Ferrari was closer in 2023, but gained race speed in return
- Only MCL and Aston made a noticeable gains compared to RBR, which shows that the RB20 is much more of a quali car than its predecessor
- field further apart than in 2023
#F1
0
3
45
Let's also have a look at the tracks so far:
- China with highest tyre deg of the season (only long SC period made the one-stop possible)
- Due to softer tyre range, Australia deg increased by 0,055 sec/lap compared to 2023
- Jeddah with least tyre deg an easy one-stop race
#F1
0
1
43
There were big differences in tyre degradation among the teams:
-Verstappen was best despite used tyres
-high deg for Alonso and Hülkenberg
-in general the tyre deg looked better in the midfield, because all top teams were stuck behind Alonso
0
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42
The same now for the qualifying pace👇
- top 3 remain the same, but gaps increase
- Aston way better over one lap & now faster than Mercedes
- Racing Bulls fastest midfield car, Alpine stays slowest
- field is closer together in quali than in the race
#F1
0
1
40
What does the
#PACETEQ
data tell us after
#F1Testing
in Bahrain?
#F1
Possible pecking order longruns:
Red Bull
Mercedes +0,45
Ferrari +0,5
Aston Martin +0,55
McLaren +1,1
Racing Bulls +1,15
Williams +1,3
Sauber +1,45
Alpine +1,5
Haas +1,6
Note: quali order and gaps can vary
5
3
35
Who is the unluckiest driver when changing tyres?
- Bottas spends an average of over 12 seconds changing tyres
- big difference at Alpine, where Gasly seems to be a lot unluckier than Ocon
- nobody gets out of the pits faster than Max Verstappen
#F1
2
4
31
Topspeed deficit from the Qualifying shows two things:
-why Haas was so hard to overtake in the race
-why Piastri had no chance passing Hamilton (McLaren suffers from high drag + low DRS effect)
0
2
24
If Alonso had got his qualifying lap together in
#FP2
, the gap to Verstappen would be just 0,044. Alpine is not only good in the longrun, but also on the flying lap. Ferrari, Mercedes and RB have most certainly not shown their full quali pace yet.
#Paceteq
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
1
4
23
#HungarianGP
Strategy Analysis (1/4):
I think
#Leclerc
could not have won in Budapest even with the right strategy because
#Verstappen
was just too fast &
#Ferrari
too slow.
First indication: Verstappen's mega undercut, which makes clear how fast the Red Bull was.
#F1
1
2
18
And here the tyre deg:
-tyre deg 0,020 seconds / lap lower than last year due to cooler temperatures
-Mercedes & Ferrari top
-lots of similarities within the field
-Sauber the only negative outlier
3
4
18
Aston Martins performance in qualifying was really interesting. They are slow on the straights (sector 3), but the fastest in downforce sector 1. Without his mistake in turn 22, Stroll could have been P4 in quali and P3 on the grid.
#Paceteq
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
1
3
14
Which Formula 1 team has the most tyre deg in 2023 and which has the least?👀
-
#RedBull
handles the tyres best by far✅
-
#AlphaTauri
and
#AstonMartin
also do well
-All 3
#Ferrari
teams are struggling🤔
-
#Williams
with the most tyre deg per lap📉
#F1
#PACETEQ
2
1
13
#AzerbaijanGP
longrun analysis from FP2:
Red Bull and Ferrari are in a league of their own with a slight advantage for championship leader Max Verstappen. The rest, including a weak Mercedes, are way behind. Sebastian Vettel is the positive surprise of the day.
#F1
2
3
10
#CanadianGP
longrun analysis from FP2:
Sainz with the fastest average time, but on two stints and therefore fresher tyres. Alonso the big surprise on hard tyres! Is a podium possible for Alpine? Red Bull solid, while Mercedes again lagging a bit behind. Vettel strong again.
#F1
1
4
11
#HungarianGP
Strategy Analysis (4/4):
Leclerc's tyres started to degrade and he couldn't even do the fastest lap on the freshest tyres. At the end, Sainz was the slowest of the top 6, so I think with
#Leclerc
it would have been the same if he had chosen the Sainz strategy.
#F1
2
3
8
Spain FP2 longrun analysis:
#Verstappen
not only the quickest, but also the most consistent driver with the least tyre degradation.
#Ferrari
struggles on high fuel while
#Mercedes
is quite strong.
#Vettel
looks fast and consistent in the 'green Red Bull' as well.
#F1
#SpanishGP
1
2
7
#HungarianGP
Strategy Analysis (3/4):
#Perez
showed the great Red Bull pace at the end to cover
#Leclerc
for P5. Meanwhile, Verstappen was cruising out in front, but could have matched the pace if he needed to do it. He was a lot faster than Perez during the whole weekend.
#F1
1
2
6
Race sims
#FP2
average lap times:
Soft:
VER: 35,2
SAI: 35,3
GAS: 35,3
STR: 35,8
NOR: 36,0
TSU: 36,0
DEV: 36,1
BOT: 36,8
MAG: 37,1
Medium:
PER: 35,1
ALO: 35,3
OCO: 35,4
HAM: 35,3
LEC: 35,7
ALB: 35,9
ZHO: 36,2
HUL: 36,7
Hard:
PIA: 35,6
SAR: 36,3
#paceteq
#SaudiArabianGP
#F1
1
0
7
RBR: top tyre deg
MER: under radar, but fast
FER: strong top speed
MCL: Piastri race sim upsets
RB: low deg
WIL: fastest on straights
SAU: anything between P7 and P10 in team order is possible
ALP: slow & high tyre wear
HAA: slow, tyre wear better than last year, but still high
2
0
7
Can VER win the
#SaudiArabianGP
from P15 on the grid? Friday's longrun data suggests: Yes! Tyre wear on the RB was so low that VER could consider a medium-soft strategy. Since he was knocked out in Q2, he has several fresh softs left, so he could do a mega overcut.
#Paceteq
#F1
2
0
7
Why was
#Ferrari
so slow at the
#SaudiArabianGP
?
It wasn't actually tyre wear, because
#Sainz
and
#Leclerc
's times didn't drop much at the end of the stints. There was just a general lack of pace.
#Perez
and
#Verstappen
were 1.1 seconds faster per lap on average.
#Paceteq
#F1
1
0
6
Pretty clear balance of power at the
#SaudiArabianGP
. Red Bull is by far the fastest team, followed by Aston Martin, Mercedes, Ferrari and Alpine. Tyre wear did not play a role at all on the hard tyres. Oscar Piastri with a 48-lap stint!
#Paceteq
#F1
1
0
6
I don't think the soft tyre will be a good choice for the race, because several drivers were struggling with tyre deg on this compound. Medium & hard tyres look fine. It should be between one or two stops, with a two-stopper more likely due to the hot temperatures.
#F1
0
1
5
Was
#Perez
on a worse strategy compared to
#Verstappen
?🤔
No!
Perez was simply too slow, especially on the new hard tyres, compared to Max's old ones. With the tyre wear data from
#PACETEQ
, we can say how much faster Perez should have been: 3.5 tenths per lap.👀
#F1
#MiamiGP
1
0
5
Who has good chances for the
#AzerbaijanGP
?🤔
Because of the long straights, top speed is important and here's what we've seen in 2023:
-
#RedBull
fastest🚀
-
#Williams
&
#Ferrari
up there✅
-For
#AstonMartin
&
#McLaren
it could be difficult (9 kph avg. deficit!)🐌
#F1
#PACETEQ
0
1
5
It looks like Ferrari hasn't shown everything with the engine in
#FP3
. Once again almost 10 kph behind Red Bull, although the two teams were equal in top speed during the qualifying runs in FP2. So expect Ferrari to be closer in qualifying.
#Paceteq
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
0
0
5
#HungarianGP
Strategy Analysis (2/4):
Leclerc's teammate
#Sainz
was on the right strategy but was beaten by
#Verstappen
and both Mercedes, so he finished 4th.
#Hamilton
, who started from P7, did the same strategy as Sainz, but in the end was miles faster on the soft tyre.
#F1
1
1
4
#Hulkenberg
destroys
#Magnussen
!🔥
... at least in qualifying.
Let's take a look at the team battles in quali and who is faster on avg.:
-
#Haas
with the clearest battle (6 tenths!)👀
-big gaps at
#Williams
and
#McLaren
-close fights at top teams &
#AlfaRomeo
🤏
#F1
#PACETEQ
1
0
4
Longrun average pace before red flag:
STR 22,8 (Soft)
ALO 22,9 (Soft)
VER 23,4 (Medium)
LEC 23,4 (Soft)
SAI 23,7 (Soft)
#AustralianGP
#AusGP
#F1
#FP3
#PACETEQ
0
0
4
Where has
#Ferrari
lost all this time?
In the tight sections they were even faster than
#RedBull
, but in the fast corners and on the straights they are lacking. In the race Red Bull was 9 kph faster in the speed trap again.
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
graphic via
@f1_tempo_
0
0
4
Expect a close fight between Aston Martin, Mercedes, Ferrari and Alpine. For Leclerc, catching up will not be easy as the Ferrari's pace delta might not be big enough and he started to struggle with tyre wear in the longrun.
#Paceteq
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
Longrun data from FP2:
1
0
4
Alpine is not sure they made the right choice with the skinny rear wing at the
#AzerbaijanGP
. Alonso and Ocon were unbeatable on the straights, as the McLaren drivers found out at the end of the race.
#F1
2
0
4
What if everyone had gotten their best sectors together in qualifying for the
#AustralianGP
?
There would have been some surprises👇
#F1
#AusGP
#PACETEQ
0
1
4
According to our data at
#PACETEQ
, M-H is about 6 seconds faster than a two-stop (M-M-H).
Personally, I would put an S-H strategy into play for Max
#Verstappen
. Could be an advantage off the line and it's easier to overtake in the first stint, but let's see.
#F1
#MiamiGP
9
82
332
1
1
4
Looking at the top speeds in
#FP2
, Red Bull and Williams lead the way with Ferrari close behind. Aston Martin quite a bit down on ultimate speed, but Alonso was very good in the first sector where you need downforce.
#Paceteq
#F1
#SaudiArabianGP
0
0
3
Not much longrun data from
#FP2
, but here's what I could get.👇
Drivers did 2 to 5 laps, so not super representative, but the top favourite for Sunday's race should be clear:
#Verstappen
.
#F1
#MiamiGP
#PACETEQ
1
0
3
This graphic shows, that Ferrari tends to turn the engine up more for FP2, while Red Bull normally uses the same engine modes like in FP1.
#F1
#AustralianGP
#AUSGP
#PACETEQ
0
1
3
#Ferrari
seems to have found something overnight. Longruns of
#Leclerc
and
#Sainz
in FP3 look very competitive compared to yesterday's times. Track conditions were also quite similar compared to FP2.
#F1
#SpanishGP
0
0
3
So where is Ferrari losing all the time?
Short answer: everywhere, but Red Bull is quite strong in sector 2 with the long straight. In quali, RB was 7 kph faster than Ferrari in the speed trap. Overtaking Leclerc might be possible, but Ferrari seems to have the outright pace.
1
0
3
#BritishGP
longrun analysis from FP2:
Red Bull is slightly ahead, but with fewer laps and soft tyres. Ferrari and Mercedes are in the mix, so it could be close at the top. Alfa Romeo and McLaren seem to be best of the rest, but no times from Alpine and Aston Martin.
#F1
2
0
3
Red Bull didn't get their times together in
#SQ3
for the
#AzerbaijanGP
. Combine all the best sectors and
#Perez
would be on sprint pole ahead of
#Verstappen
&
#Leclerc
.
#F1
#PACETEQ
0
2
3
Looking at the sectors, Red Bull has an advantage on the straights, where Mercedes in particular is losing a lot of time. The middle sector with the high-speed corners is pretty even between all three teams. Hamilton's times show that the hard tyre seems to be rubbish again.
#F1
1
0
2