John Blaxland SFHEA FRSN
@JohnBlaxland1
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Director @ANUNorthAmerica & Prof of International Security & Intel Studies, @ANU_SDSC @ANUBellSchool , @ANUasiapacific
Washington DC / Canberra ACT
Joined April 2012
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Please consider: "Adapting to Poly-crisis: A proposed Australian National Security Strategy"
#RSL
@ANUBellSchool
@ANUmedia
@ANUasiapacific
@NSC_ANU
@ANU_SDSC
@ANUNorthAmerica
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Amazing photo shared online this morning - firestorm sunrise - reminiscent of the Aboriginal Flag. There’s a message there for us, on a number of levels, methinks
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Great map showing Australia in relative size
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First day in my new office at the Australian Embassy in Washington DC as the Director
@ANUNorthAmerica
. Someone's gotta do it.
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Russia stages war games in Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg):a potent Russian exclave from which military exercises are routinely run. But this one,during the war,points to sabre rattling,reminding NATO of Suwalski Gap vulnerabilities for Baltics & Poland
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Wow! A designer made a 'map of the internet' depicting 3,000 websites as countries in an online world
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A significant shift, it would appear:"The demotion of China's first vice foreign minister, President Xi Jinping's point man for Russia, signals a shift in Xi's strategy and suggests his priority in foreign policy now is to rebuild diplomacy with the US"
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In the face of complex environmental & geopolitical security challenges, Australia should create a voluntary scheme for national and community service to bolster national resilience
#AUSNACS
@ANUasiapacific
@ANUmedia
@APPSPolicyForum
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Extraordinary : Embattled
@Anne_MarieBrady
Backed by 150 China Scholars. She’s had break-ins, mail tampering, & theft of banking info. No wonder: Her work on China’s political influence paints a picture of NZ as an enticing target & intel back door
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Chilling: Huawei’s founder declares ‘war’ on West: urging workers to ‘crush rivals and “blaze a trail of blood” in the Chinese telecoms giant’s battle for supremacy.’
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Extraordinary CCP United Front line diagram in the latest book by
@CliveCHamilton
@MareikeOhlberg
, “Hidden Hand”
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Seems like a pretty big deal:'India has dropped a £413 weapons deal with Russia, which could signal its intent to drop more in the future in a move that may cause "long-term" damage to Vladimir Putin'
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These men guarded Australia's embassy in Kabul for a decade. Now they need our help: the chances of getting them to safety in Aust will diminish if visas aren't granted before troops leave. Not having an embassy makes it much more difficult to arrange
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What a contrast. Saigon, April 1975: Kabul, August 2021
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Yes, this is getting beyond embarrassing. Jesus was a refugee too. As Christmas approaches, a little extra Christmas spirit is called for,
@ScottMorrisonMP
The optics are terrible. The least we can do when Australia needs as much moral support from the neighbours as we can muster
As
@ScottMorrisonMP
professes to be a "Christian" he should remember that
#CHRISTmas
is the commemoration of the birth of
#JesusChrist
. What would Jesus do? Keep Kopika & Tharunicaa locked up in detention? Or
#LetThemGo
#HomeToBilo
@karenandrewsmp
#MemberForMcpherson
#auspol
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Dear,
@ScottMorrisonMP
, The time for proactive quarantine action is NOW. It is not overkill. It would be horrendous to wait to see how it all pans out before we act & count how many it actually kills here. The evidence is mounting: I t’s contagious before symptoms show. Act fast
Over 40% of Sydneysiders contracted the Spanish influenza of 1919, with the pandemic leading to lasting demographic impacts on the Australian population due to lives lost, reduced family formation and children never born.
#health
#coronavirus
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Please consider: "Fear,honour & interests remain enduring international drivers: With heightened great power, environmental & governance challenges, greater Australian regional engagement's called for"
@melbasiareview
@ANUBellSchool
@ANUmedia
@ANU_SDSC
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Phenomenal perspective : pandemics lessons from 1918. We’re slow learners, or re-learners, so it seems
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"Revealing Secrets" is out 1 May 2023. It looks at the historical context of Australia's Signals intelligence, explains what it is, how it works and its connection with cyber. Great to work with
@BirginClare
, the
@newsouthpub
team &
@ANU_SDSC
@ANUmedia
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Canberra airport closed. Everyone’s getting their bags back. Smoke’s too thick. And the Hume Highway’s reportedly closed too. Grim.
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Grim shot of Brindabella Park at Canberra Airport
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A tragedy unfolding: “Coalition to cut $2 billion pa from university research. But the pain’ll be borne disproportionately by younger researchers,casuals,students,women. The well-paid management layer that’s grown in good times will be largely preserved.”
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More than tacky: "Chinese salvage ship caught red-handed looting battleship wrecks. A Chinese ship has been caught red-handed trying to quietly loot the war graves of 840 men, ripping up World War II-era wrecks."
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Great map with unique perspective of the maritime domain here
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Orwellian: Australia’s declaration that China’s territorial claims in the South China Seas are illegal is a reckless “provocation” , but PRC’s creation of an imaginary nine dash line and ignoring of 2016 Arbitral Tribunal UNCLOS-related Ruling is okay. Wow
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Tragi-comic (thanks for sharing Neil Churches)
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Seems quite an epic move: “Japan reveals 87 companies eligible for 'China exit' subsidies”
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Wow
@mfisheroverseas
“China’s actions will eventually bring Canada closer to Taiwan & Canadian Forces one day may be compelled to be part of a plan to defend it.The world’s changing.Canada’s already been caught up in the growing Indo-Pacific storm”
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I used to see a Bill of Rights as superfluous for Aust.But with the gradual erosion of privacy & freedoms,I’m coming to see why it’s needed
Why we need a bill of rights & stronger oversight in the age of terror. My weekend column
#auspol
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A NAFO explainer of "Your Western Genocide Apologist". This has some resonance.
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Powerful graphic on global industrial power
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Merry Christmas to all and sundry in the twittersphere! Here’s hoping for a healthier, safe and happier new year! :-)
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Surprisingly, with under 8 million people, Australia raised 15 divisions worth of combat troops by 1943 (we only have one + today). In addition the RAN had 350 fighting & support ships & 600 auxiliaries. RAAF had 76 squadrons with about 6000 aircraft: a globally significant force
@JohnBlaxland1
@ScottMorrisonMP
My dude, what percentage of total Allied forces were Australia's troops during World War Two?
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Wonderful photo found online, showing Muslim, Hindu and Sikh Spitfire pilots of the Second World War. Lest we forget
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This perspective might help
Interesting to reflect on whether the embracing of the term Indo-Pacific has helped redefine what is considered to be 🇦🇺 region.
The significant implications for capability are arguably at the centre of issues currently playing out.
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Australian Foreign Affairs
@AusForeign
asks: "Does China Really Want to Attack Australia?" But this is a disappointingly simple & misleading strawman type question. War with China is not very likely, but that misses the point almost entirely. It's about unrestricted competition,
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Maslow’s revised 21st Century “Hierarchy of Needs”: truer now than ever ! ;-). As I tell my students, We’ve gone from being cyber-enabled to cyber-dependent to cyber-vulnerable
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Time for a three-way deal with
#Canada
(peak fires June-Aug)
#USA
(peak fires Aug-Oct) and
#Australia
(Nov-March) to fight fires with more water bombers like this?
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So I’ll say it:
#Coronavirus
could be construed as an eg of“unrestricted warfare”:plausibly-deniable hostile acts below threshold of war to which USA & allies can’t respond kinetically yet imposes crippling consequences.Was it planned that way or just an extraordinary coincidence?
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This is an absolute no brainer . Of course Radio Australia coverage in the Pacific should be restored
Veteran Pacific correspondent Sean Dorney reported on the Pacific for 40 years. Now he wants your help to revitalise
#RadioAustralia
. Have your say at a Aust Govt review. Submissions due by Aug 3.
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I wonder how many Pacific Island Forum leaders who were, on one level, understandably critical of
@ScottMorrisonMP
last week, have seen this chart?
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It’s a great honour and a weighty responsibility to be selected as the preferred candidate to write a multi-volume history of
@ASDGovAu
The
@ASDGovAu
has announced
@JohnBlaxland1
will write its official history, due for publication in 2022.
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Vale Jim Molan. Thank you for your service, in uniform, abroad (in Indonesia, East Timor, PNG, Iraq, etc) & in the Senate. Visionary, Bahasa Indonesia speaker, tough minded commander of Australian & international forces, & visionary patriot. What a legacy.
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If accurate, this is a pretty damning indictment of the
@WHO
Chief and China’s President Xi over their handling of
#coronavirus
#COVID19
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Map from WW2 showing strategic significance of the area around Vanuatu (then New Hebrides). Japan sought to capture Guadalcanal to cut this route to Aust in 1942. 1000s of US marines died fighting to hold it and the Australian Navy fought valiantly alongside USN to win there too
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Hard to argue:”How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered: the worst SecDef in US history. He was worse than McNamara. His fatal judgment was equaled only by his absolute self-assurance. He lacked the courage to doubt himself or the wisdom to change his mind”
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A little embarrassing for Malaysia to so publicly subcontract its foreign policy, right?: besides, we all already know what China think about AUKUS: “Malaysia to seek China's view on Australia's nuclear sub pact” | Reuters
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Some might be unsettled to read this piece by
@davidfrum
“China Is a Paper Dragon: we should look to the future with a little more confidence & a lot more trust in trade, markets & the superior potential of a free people.”
@TheAtlantic
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“The Map is Never Neutral: Maps are the prisms through which we see geopolitical realities.”
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Sobering: ‘Xi Jinping -- China’s “Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy” in Context: PRC’s illegal Sth China Sea assertiveness is damaging its reputation. But it is also perhaps the greatest threat to international peace and security in the world today.’ National Review
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With Australia Day approaching, along with call for a Voice & Recognition, in this land of immigrants, with its Anglo-Celtic institutions planted amidst a place of ancient heritage, we need to find a way through together: Let's talk more about A Reconciliation Flag for Australia
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The flight path was from a recognised international airport and the plane was only in the climb. Hard to conceive how it could have been confused for a hostile aircraft. Inconceivable that this was just a mistake.
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Therapeutic walk up Red Hill with much of my life story in the background -from
@AustralianArmy
Duntroon,Russell,DIO,
@ASDGovAu
@ASIOGovAu
:All grist for the mill,teaching & mentoring outstanding
@ANUasiapacific
@ANUBellSchool
students
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Accident? Not likely. There was always a risk Iran would hit a US ally as a deniable proxy to deflect American wrath. This time it was largely Ukranian Canadians. It could’ve been Australians. Good call for
@Qantas
to redirect flights
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks in Ottawa following the fatal plane crash outside of Tehran, Iran, that claimed the lives of 176 people, including 63 Canadians.
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A tweak of one of my attempts at a Reconciliation flag for Australia. Thoughts?
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Hate to admit it but I agree with
@RodgerShanahan
here: "Call us soldiers, sailors or aviators, but never warriors: We need to look no further than the Brereton report to understand how harmful the focus on being a warrior, rather than a soldier, can be."
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Vale, Gregory Montgomery Alfred Blaxland, 19 October 1932- 24 July 2024
"Well done, my good and faithful servant"
"Vicar of Valparaiso".
Don Gregorio.
Dad.
¡Adelante p'arriba! (Onwards & upwards)
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Orders can be placed for "Revealing Secrets: An unofficial history of Australian Signals intelligence and the advent of cyber", out 1 May
It reveals Australia's efforts to reveal the secrets of others
@ANUmedia
Thanks
@BirginClare
@ANU_SDSC
&
@newsouthpub
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I find goose-stepping armies particularly unsettling, for some reason
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Sun Tzu would be proud: “Deception Is Key to Chinese Military Strategies. Despite the long tradition of valuing deception by Chinese military leaders, few studies on Chinese military power touch on the issue & the West has largely forgotten the art
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This letter's a cracker. Love it!
Doctor's note used by Winston Churchill to beat the Prohibition during a lecture tour of the USA.
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Wow. Taiwan launching 5G in the next month based on Ericsson & Nokia infrastructure.
Taiwan to introduce cheapest 5G unlimited data plan in world
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Chuffed to see “Niche Wars” in print. Thanks
@ANU_Press
@ANUasiapacific
@ANUBellSchool
@ANU_SDSC
@ANUmedia
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Indeed:"Many Arab governments would like to see Hamas gone. And they worry that the war in Gaza will upset their economic plan"
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Looking out over Brendan’s old stomping ground at
@DeptDefence
@ANUasiapacific
& everything in between. Still really feeling your loss, mate
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@DrewPavlou
@MichaelPolakLaw
In their eyes you must be very effective if this is the length they'll go to in order to shut you down
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@TheEconomist
With an appointed senate, how is Canada more of a "full democracy" than Australia, which has an elected senate?
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"History is talked about as if it’s something that is inevitable, or that history ‘just happens’. Well, history doesn’t just happen, and it isn’t inevitable: history is the product of the decisions that people make, and the actions that they take. We have this historic moment for
So freaking proud to be a part of this. Let's go Australia. We have the chance to turn the pages over...
@mdavisqlder
@ulurustatement
#yes
How Yes side secured John Farnham’s voice
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Gulp: & what about the other US allies, like Australia, already deeply invested in the Joint Strike Fighter?: “The 25-ton stealth warplane has become the very problem it was supposed to solve. And now America needs a new fighter to solve that F-35 problem”
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Despite naysayers,"AUKUS is a model for allies. Pooling talent & resources is the way to match China’s heft." Plus diesel-electrics no longer cut it & they're now so invested they must make it work. War isn't inevitable & this helps reduce the prospects
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It’s an honour to have the work by
@RhysCrawley
and I recognised this way. The book’s also contributed significantly to my teaching
@ANU_SDSC
@ANUBellSchool
@ANUasiapacific
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Taiwan has a similarly sized population base to Australia and a third of the UK. Interesting to see Taiwan take a leading role in developing non-Huawei 5G options, setting a precedent for the rest of us. NB:
@BorisJohnson
Wow. Taiwan launching 5G in the next month based on Ericsson & Nokia infrastructure.
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Best PhD student discussions ever - over coffee. Nearly there!
@SecurityScholar
@ANUBellSchool
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Such an evocative image. I still hope and pray that our ADF efforts to follow up on this with our people (including locally engaged Afghan employees and relatives, not just citizens) is not in vain
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Great message here on the importance of brevity.
Approximately 80 years ago, as the British Empire stood alone against the Nazis, the Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, wrote a Secret memorandum to his War Cabinet on the need for "Brevity". So many of you need to read and apply this, for the sake of all of us.
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Australia has a moral obligation to help those Afghans who put their lives on the line for our People.We need to get over any concerns & reach out a hand of friendship & safety for those people who have been on our side & whose lives are now in danger.
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Vale - Major General the Honourable Michael Jeffery, former Governor General of Australia
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Some countries will criticise but if they’re honest, they’ll recognize Australia is being searingly tough on itself. Pollies mustn’t be cavalier in deploying the ADF & expect to sustain that over a decade without moral injury
@ANUmedia
@ScottMorrisonMP
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Grim prospects in coming days & months: as "US blocked from ports in PRC-Influenced Solomons & Vanuatu & PRC-linked actors attempt politically to remove Malaitan Premier Suidani. Demonstrators may excuse a triggering of the PRC security deal."
@CleoPaskal
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We should do the same, and quickly,
@karenandrewsmp
@ScottMorrisonMP
:”Hundreds more Afghans and their families to be allowed to settle in UK”
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The Economist explains: "How quickly can Russia rebuild its tank fleet? It has one tank factory, & is reliant on refurbishing old models.
It is likely to see its fleet steadily decline in both quantity & quality. This time, manufacturing might not save it"
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Did NZ PM
@jacindaardern
legislatively overreach in declaring a vessel with nuclear propulsion would be banned from entry into NZ ports? I thought David Lange’s position was about the holding of nuclear weapons, not the technology employed for the ship/boat’s propulsion system
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For those who snigger at the 'RBGO', & warn against US seeking to 'retain' primacy, please consider this argument: "The Age of US naval dominance is over: what if the safe transit of ships could no longer be assumed? What if the oceans were no longer free?
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That’s a long way away from China, but not too far for its industrial scale fishing fleet: “Chile keeps eye on Chinese fishing fleet along South American coast”
@Reuters
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Some thoughts on Why nuclear submarines are a smart military move for Australia — and could deter China further
@ANUmedia
@ANUasiapacific
@ANU_SDSC
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Why on earth was this not released as a Government or Defence Media release rather than an LNP advertisement?
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Vale, Admiral James Goldrick. You lived the life of a legendary naval historian, commander, teacher, mentor, colleague and friend. You will be sorely missed, not least by your friends and colleagues
@ANU_SDSC
@ANUBellSchool
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HM The Queen - an incredibly impressive woman, speaking with compassion and resolution, a lot like Angela Merkel. Far more impressive that many of the men, including Putin, Xi or Trump :
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In saying "AUKUS commits Australia to fight
PRC if USA does, simple", my colleague again misses the point: we're already closely tied (Des Ball said so yrs ago) & our efforts aim to deter a status quo change, not accelerate it. Weakness invites adventurism
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