Co-founder and director of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll. Former Head of Political at YouGov (2000-18). "Housewives' favourite pollster" - The Times.
Representative sampling delivers data that accurately represents and reports the opinions of the population it is trying to research.
Given a number of recent examples I feel compelled to send out this slide from my 'Making Numbers Count' presentation on evaluating samples.
If you look very closely, you may be able to identify some of the very subtle differences between party conventions in the United States and party conferences in the United Kingdom.
You know a lot of MPs are leaving Parliament when the card shop at London Bridge is selling a card specifically for that special departing elected representative in your life.
I find it interesting that many of the people who are consistently late for work meetings due to traffic are also consistently late for zoom calls from home.
Around one in six British adults don't have a passport. Around one in four don't have a driving license (and for some ethnic groups that number rises to nearly one in two). Requiring photographic ID at polling stations will have consequences.
NEW: An employment lawyer has gone through the details of Sonia Khan's dismissal and suggests 'Cummings could find himself jointly and severally liable for the compensation' and that it's unlikely Ms Khan will be 'claiming anything less than six figures'.
I know it's not the main point, but amazing to think that this time last year it was warm enough to sit outside in just a shirt with sleeves rolled up.
Please try and remember that you cannot just add up the votes for Conservatives and Reform in a constituency and say that is what Conservatives would have won if Reform had not stood.
I mean you can, but you would be wrong.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead up to eleven points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 32% (-2)
Lab 43% (+3)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Other 16% (-)
Fieldwork: 13-14 April 2022
Sample: 1,550
Changes from 8-11 Mar 2022
In 2017 the difference between a working Conservative majority and the hung parliament we ended up with? 75 votes. SEVENTY FIVE VOTES. With under two weeks to go it's perhaps worth remembering how fine the margins of victory and loss can be in a First Past the Post system.
In honour of the announcement of WeWork's bankruptcy, here are the instructions I used to send people coming to visit Deltapoll when we were in the Waterloo WeWork.
(This was before the basketball hoop with a TV as a backboard was installed)
Compared to Brecon and Radnorshire there are currently 45 constituencies held by Conservative MPs that are 1) Less safe and 2) Have higher proportions estimated to have voted Remain.
To repeat, there are vanishingly few people out there who are saying “My mortgage has gone up a huge amount and my heating bills have doubled, but I have heard the government is going to do something about small boats so I am back voting Conservative”.
A Tory MP WhatsApps me five ways to fix his party's electoral woes:
1. Stop the boats
2. Clamp down on legal migration
3. Ditch policies like Conversion therapy ban that will cause public splits in party
4. Help SMEs to grow with targeted tax cuts
5. Reduce tax burden on families
Conservative lead now down to 3 points.
Latest voting intention from Deltapoll:
Conservative 41% (-2)
Labour 38% (-)
Lib Dem 8% (-)
Other 13% (+2)
1,547 GB adults
Fieldwork: 4th-5th June
I am just going to go ahead and suggest that if you choose to invite not one but TWO of the most senior and experienced pollsters in Britain on your show, it is probably not a good idea to then just sit there and tell them that the polls have 'always been wrong'.
@benatipsos
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead at twelve points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 31% (-)
Lab 43% (+1)
Lib Dem 11% (+1)
Other 15% (-2)
Fieldwork: 19-22 August 2022
Sample: 1,588
(Changes from 21-23 July 2022)
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour trail Conservatives by just 1 point in latest results from Deltapoll for tomorrow's Mail on Sunday.
Con 38% (-4)
Lab 37% (-)
Lib Dem 9% (+3)
Other 16% (+1)
Fieldwork: 13-15 Oct 2021
Sample: 3,043
Changes from 23-26 July 2021
Yes, by-elections are always unusual. Yes, it's mid-term etc. etc.
But.....
There are 291 Conservative MPs with a seat that is less safe than Tiverton and Honiton.
It's extraordinarily difficult to know exactly how explicit to be about sex research on
@BBCr4today
at 7.40 on Boxing Day morning, but since
@bbcnickrobinson
asked, those who fantasise about having sex with an MP are statistically more likely to vote Conservative.
At the start of the election campaign, Rishi Sunak's personal rating was -37 compared to Keir Starmer's +7. In Deltapoll's latest survey, Starmer has risen to +14 while Sunak has fallen to a new all-time low of -45.
If it were actually true that Susan Hall had won in London (and words cannot describe how big an 'If' that is), it would represent a polling error far in excess of anything in the history of our industry.
CCHQ apparently chipper tonight, I’m told.
As the polls close, they’re “utterly convinced” Susan Hall has won London, whilst Andy Street keeping his job in the West Midlands is on a “knife edge”.
*strong health warning but the former would be a monumental upset.
What are your parents up to during lockdown? Because mine have taken it upon themselves to dress up my Grandma to look like Whistler's Mother (albeit a more colourful version).
I have the utmost respect for the 20 year old student from Trinity College, Oxford who, to settle an argument with a friend, emailed
@YouGov
to ask how many British people his age had seen all the Harry Potter films. I will now be making it my mission to find out.
#Christmas
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead at eleven points in latest results from Deltapoll for The Mail on Sunday.
Con 31%
Lab 42%
Lib Dem 10%
Other 17%
Fieldwork: 21-23 July 2022
Sample: 1,588
Revoking Article 50 comes out top of the eight Iterative Vote options, but the top four, including No Deal, are essentially neck-and-neck. No one option gets close to support from a majority of the public.
#thiscanonlyendwell
In the
#BBCDebate
while it could be claimed there is "no enthusiasm" for either Sunak or Starmer, Starmer's current net rating in Deltapoll's latest results is +4. Compare that to Sunak's current rating of -44, or Boris Johnson's rating of +2, one week before the last election.
How important is Britain in the world? The British people put Britain at number two in our list, behind the US but ahead of China and the European Union.
At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the
#EU
and peace in
#NorthernIreland
. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important.
#Brexit
Going too fast or too slow? Latest results from Deltapoll shows moving too quickly to lift
#COVID19
restrictions is by far the greater worry for the British public - including across all generations and political groups.
🚨🚨New Large Sample Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour increase their lead to nine points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 32% (-3)
Lab 41% (+1)
Lib Dem 11% (+1)
Other 16% (+1)
Fieldwork: 12-16 Jan 2022
Sample: 4,292
Changes from 23-30 Dec 2021
Possibly unpopular (but entirely correct and accurate) opinion: I enjoyed
#Bodyguard
but
#KillingEve
is better by a country mile and the best thing on British TV at the moment.
Don't have the numbers yet, but my sense is that sanctions such as those set out in this thread would be supported by the British public. In terms of public opinion, it is pretty much an open goal. But of course it is not just opinion of the electorate Johnson is concerned with.
Imagine telling Chris Whitty at the start of 2020 about the series of events that would need to take place so that he could end up appearing on comedy birthday cards by the end of the year.
Manifestos are like the fixed menu on the outside of a restaurant. You may like some of it, you may not like all of it, but if the restaurant looks dodgy you'll eat elsewhere.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead at twelve points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 32% (+1)
Lab 44% (+2)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Other 15% (-2)
Fieldwork: 9-12 September 2022
Sample: 2,096 GB adults
(Changes from 31 August - 2 September 2022)
Half of those working in Britain say that cannot work from home. This rises to nearly two thirds of C2DEs. Fewer than a third can work from home without it impacting their earnings. Asking people not to travel unless their work 'cannot be done from home' may not be nearly enough.
Regardless of your politics, I think we can all be glad of the Twelfth Amendment to the US Constitution which means the runner-up in the Presidential Election no longer serves as Vice President.
Should Britain go into an immediate national 'circuit breaker' lockdown? More than six out of ten support the idea, including a majority in all regions, all age groups and among voters for the three main parties. Fewer than a third are opposed to it.
Perhaps time for reminder of behavioural economist Dan Ariely's quote:
'Big data is like teenage sex: everyone talks about it, nobody really knows how to do it, everyone thinks everyone else is doing it, so everyone claims they are doing it.'
No10 looking to enhance its “quantitative ability”
New job advertisement for a position paying up to £135,000 a year in the “10 Data Science” team to better use data in government
Another part of the Dominic Cummings reforms, it seems...
We have reached that point where in London you can see someone wearing a coat and scarf walking past someone wearing shorts and flipflops.
And yet somehow there is not a name for this day, let alone a Wikipedia page.
Suggestions?
🚨🚨New Voting Intention Results🚨🚨
Labour lead up to ten points in latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 32% (-)
Lab 42% (+1)
Lib Dem 10% (-1)
Other 16% (-)
Fieldwork: 25-27 Jan 2022
Sample: 1,515
Changes from 12-16 Jan 2022
Back in 2016 I spoke frequently about how unusual it was then to find any celebrity under 30 who took a public stand on politics. Politicians could usually rely on high-profile sportspeople in Britain particularly not to comment. Times have changed.
You don’t get to stoke the fire at the beginning of the tournament by labelling our anti-racism message as ‘Gesture Politics’ & then pretend to be disgusted when the very thing we’re campaigning against, happens.
NEW: Keir Starmer has fallen to his lowest net approval rating in Deltapoll's latest survey. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson's rating continues to improve, pulling ahead of Starmer for the first time since May last year.
Agatha Christie's highest selling book is one of the best selling books of all time but also a great example of how public opinion changes over time.
'And Then There Were None' was first published in 1939, but very, very few people would refer to it by its original title today.
This is absolutely disgraceful. The greatest crime writer of all re-worked by the infamous Woke overlords at
#HarperCollins
Why not just burn them ? We are living in dark, dark days indeed...
@Telegraph
@MarinaHyde
Does it work like this?:
1. Shock and denial
2. Pain and guilt
3. Anger and bargaining
4. Depression
5. Blaming Marina Again For That Article That Time
6. Taking Some Fucking Responsibility
Sing along if you know the words...
Polls are only ever a snapshot of public opinion, not a prediction.
They are all subject to a margin of error.
That margin of error increases when it comes to testing hypothetical scenarios of which most people have limited understanding.
Should President Trump be invited to visit Britain? Data from
@YouGov
shows a substantial fall in support for Donald Trump's State Visit. A majority of Brits now oppose such a visit, while fewer than a third support it.
More than a quarter of British adults placed Britain at the very top: the number one most important in the world. This figure rises to a third or more of Conservative voters and Leave voters.
Is the British population gripped by Cancel Culture™? The data says No. In fact, the whole issue is an excellent example of noise being confused with volume.
I have written all about what Deltapoll's new survey shows in this piece for the
@NewStatesman
.
Regular reminder that, in the unique context of the COVID pandemic, it is unlikely any individual scandal will have a lasting impact on public support for the government. Key question is instead the cumulative effect of ALL these scandals in the longer term, once dust settles.
Really very disappointed to see The
@Guardian
publish an entire article based on a Twitter poll.
Everybody involved should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves.
(H/T
@PollingUnPacked
)
25 of the top 50 Conservative constituencies in England with the highest percentage of school pupils on free school meals were gains at the 2019 General Election.
One would assume this fact is not lost on the newly formed Northern Research Group.
THREAD: The ten constituencies in England with the largest absolute number of school children on free school meals:
1. Birmingham, Ladywood (8943)
2. Birmingham, Hodge Hill (7492)
3. Bethnal Green and Bow (7014)
4. Poplar and Limehouse (6954)
5. Blackley and Broughton (6421)
Should Boris Johnson have to take part in the BBC interview with
@afneil
? A majority of the British public thinks so, including over a third of Conservative supporters.
Just a quick reminder that if you're asking 'Why did people vote for Trump or Brexit?', the main reason is not 'Cambridge Analytica'. It is certainly not the only reason either. It may even turn out to be only be a very, very small reason in a tiny number of cases.
This article from
@robfordmancs
is very good on why, right now, any prediction of the next election result that you might have seen is almost certainly nothing more than simplistic or politically motivated speculation. Possibly both.
The fact bringing back national service is precisely the policy included in the famous Yes, Prime Minister sketch about question wording should give everyone a clear reminder (again!) about how question wording can impact on poll findings and validity.
I have been at YouGov since the very beginning, from starting as director of polling to heading up the political research team. However, after five general elections, plus plenty of party leadership contests, referenda(ums) and nearly 18 years I have taken the decision to resign.
ONE
My dad died. Classic start to a funny story. He was buried in a small village in Sussex. I was really close to my dad so I visited his grave a lot. I still do. [DON’T WORRY, IT GETS FUNNIER.]
An analysis of
@ShippersUnbound
's excellent books illustrates just how British politics has changed since the
#Brexit
referendum. Noticeable increase in both the FPP Score (up 68%) and CPP score (up 190%).
1. Conservative Brexit rebels deselected from next election.
2. Deselected MPs run in their constituencies as independents (or even for other parties).
3. Conservative election vote split between official candidate and former candidate.
4. Er...... Profit?
* People who are unlikely to vote for me should be given limited pay rises this year in order to protect people who are far more likely to vote for me from inflation, a nakedly pragmatic MP has said.