Jonathan Mergott
@Jmergz1985
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Analyst, President & Portfolio Manager of Alchemy Financial & Meta C Mergott Foundation. Inquire for Personal/Institutional Wealth Management. NOT ADVICE. DYODD
New Jersey, USA
Joined March 2014
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This is simple arbitrage.
#Silver
futures are 28.67. Silver Eagles on Apmex are $41.66, thats a 45% premium to futures. Obvious opportunity to buy futures & stand for delivery for a 35% discount on physical right? But when they don't have it, Futures = $41.66/oz.
#silversqueeze
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Almost exactly 10 yrs ago
#silver
was almost exactly the price it is now. Exactly 10 weeks later it was 50. It won't take 10 weeks this time. (By the way, CME raised margin requirements all along the way).
#silversqueeze
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Here is the long term view on $gold, the only one you should be worried about. Look at the 2 consolidations highlighted by the red circle. 2006 vs now. Both were after the 1st wave higher from breakout. I zoomed in on both and cut out price and time to reduce noise. YOU ARE HERE.
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There is nothing to do now.
#Gold
and miners are dragging across the bottom. The likelihood of a quick "stop hunt" plunge then reversal is high.
Don't try to time it or outsmart it. Just hold and wait. The pressure is building for something big.
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Last June,
#silver
was trying to push above consolidation ~18. RSI was 61. It broke & gained 65% in 6 wks. RSI topped at 85.
Today, silver is trying to push above this consolidation high at 30. RSI is 61.
A 65% gain from 30 in ~6 wks, gives us my target of $50/oz by Aug/Sept.
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1,741
#Silver
contracts dumped in 2 mins pushing price down 3.5% at 7pm last night. That's a $200m nominal value.
Because this is totally normal, efficient market action. 🤣
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Tonight, Belgian beer in honor of
@TheLastDegree
who has been tirelessly spreading the
#silversqueeze
message for days. (Remember when I said those 10% down days would be followed by 10% up days?) 🙂 3 cheers for our champion Gold Ventures. Hip hip HOORAY!
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#Silver
SCREAMING. Up 4.5% & blowing through 27. This sets up an obvious target of 28 next, which has caused problems in the past.
28 might be more important than 30. I have a feeling if we break through 28 & hold, breaking 30 will be like a hot knife through butter this time.
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Last one for tonight. Remember this chart from Oct 2010-April 2011 in $Silver? 15% correction in January, then doubles in 3 months. Here's 4hr Silver today. 15% from the high at 28 gives us $23.80. Right at support. Exhale, it's almost over.
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I don't know how many more times
#gold
needs to make higher lows & snap back to inches from ATHs to convince people this isn't acting ANYTHING like how it did before collapses in 2021 & 2022...
But I DO KNOW you've already gotten MORE than enough warnings & won't get many more.
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That's it. I'm calling a low here for
#gold
. Looking at fib retacements, MA deviations, reading the sentiment in the room and just my gut feeling.
Same indicators I used to call for a low on Nov 30th. 3 months later and a whopping $60 lower. Was all that really necessary?
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$Gold dsi at 17 $Silver at 19. Both at Fibonacci retracement 50% and 38%. I expect a reversal today and miners and metals to close green. The open today is likely the low. Possibility of a few weeks of consolidation and slight further dip from here. This is the low or very close.
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Ladies and gentlemen, the short covering in First Majestic has begun. $AG Next stop, 20. God this chart is beautiful!
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Yes, there's a 10 yr cup & handle on
#gold
, but we're also forming one in the last 18 mos. A few more weeks of boring action to shake out momentum traders & give us room to run sets us up for breakout ~May w/ ~2500 target. Just in time for gold's fav month to hit highs, Aug.
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$NEM increases dividend 38% from 40c a quarter to 55c a quarter. Annual yield now 3.8%.
I always knew it would happen one day, but I've waited 12 yrs to see a gold miner yield more than 2% and now $NEM is almost double that.
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Tomorrow should be fun, $AG, $CDE, and $PAAS earnings. Thursday we have $HL and $NEM. I'm very excited to see the numbers on the major silver producers.
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RSI on
#Gold
right now is 72. Last time it was 72 was July last year. Ironically, it was the EXACT same price then too, 1870.
It may have seemed overbought at the time, as it may now too, but it rallied 15% more in just a few weeks to 2100 & RSI topped at 88.
It happens fast.
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While
#gold
is retesting it's low around 1760 from Nov 30th,
#silver
sits comfortably 20% above its Nov 30th low. The only thing that has changed about the silver chart since the
#silversqueeze
smash, is that now we have and even bigger cup and handle forming.
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Being that GV is on vacation, I will take over Margo Robbie gif posting duties for him today in celebration of her birthday.
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I posted 3 days ago $GDX was FEELING like something was up, but didn't have evidence to go on. We're starting to get the evidence. A few hints we've seen at past lows, like pos divergence in RSI.
"Watch the miners" & today an up day w/
#gold
breaking lower. That's significant/
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Have I not proven I am totally fine with saying "
#gold
& $GDX look like crap & are gonna collapse" when they indeed look like that?
They don't.
I was bearish most of the last 2+ yrs. Don't you think it must have taken a VERY significant change in behavior to have flipped that?
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I don't write much. I simply don't have the time. Twitter is great for making simple points & sharing charts, but I cannot say everything in 140 characters. After yesterdays plunge, I wanted to share any insights I can give to those who are worried.
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For those wondering why my timing target is Aug-Sept, here is the simple answer: That's where
#gold
has peaked for 7 out of the last 10 yrs. & in 2018, made a major LOW in Aug.
This isn't "Voodoo". Investors have played the "front run the Indian wedding season" game for decades.
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There's always an excuse. Paper smash by the "banksters," options exp, manipulation, etc.
All these
#gold
"gurus" & "experts" with yrs of experience & they never see it coming.
There's only 1 reason why & it's the 1 thing you'll never here them say.
"I was wrong."
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#Gold
's down a bit today. Good. Let the "one more drop" crowd renew their calls for 1500.
“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Let the pessimism continue, I'm in no rush to get to the euphoria stage yet.
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Another BIG mistake imo, w/"dont miss the forest 4 the trees" worrying about -3% when
#gold
is repeatedly tests ATHs cause it won't ring a bell when it goes,
COT positioning "too high"
Every breakout, positions were "high" then went higher & stayed high while gold went up 100s
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#Gold
2016 vs now. 2016, after a double bottom & break higher, gold pulled back to MAs as MACD tested 0 & RSI tested 60. Then rallied 32%
Today, double bottom & break higher. MACD at 0 RSI testing 60. Pullback to MAs coming?
A 32% rally would send us just shy of my 2300 target.
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$AG 19.70, up 42%. Nearly 1/4 of yesterday's volume was traded in after/premarket so far (2.25m shares)
#HoldTheLine
#DontSell
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Will do my best to sum up my points on twitter vs writing articles for now. (Maybe more interviews or something via youtube where I can talk so I don’t have to type?) Suggestions appreciated. Bear with me, doing my best. Thanks for the love & support. You guys are awesome! /End
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$AG About 10c between here and all out panic for those holding the 20+ million shares short.
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Avino Silver and Gold, $ASM, up 140% in premarket. 8.2 million shares. Holy F*n hell.
#silversqueeze
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In other/personal news, I've been having some serious health issues & been in hospital last few days. Trying to stay busy but posts/articles may be few & far between or not at all. May need to take a while off soon. Will do what I can when I can, but no guarantees. Sorry fam. 😢
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Ahem. "When 2100 breaks, I think we get it in ~3 mos."
#Gold
: 2400-2500✅ In 3mos? Only 6wks.✅
Only difference in charts is a steeper trajectory then I predicted
& we're not done yet imo. As long as
#gold
#silver
& $GDX BEHAVIOR is acting right, we're still riding this train.
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#Gold
, now right back to where it was yesterday before the panic selling. Another day of totally normal and efficient financial markets in which the world has poured all of it's savings.
Happy Weekend!!
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Out all day today due to funeral, checking markets,
#gold
did exactly what we wanted holding at 1700 & bouncing strongly to end the week as bonds collapsed & closed near lows.
$GDX held 32 & ended at weekly highs.
Best part, weekly close ABOVE downtrend line on GDX/GLD ratio.
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Now that $gold & $silver just jumped, let's revisit this chart. 3rd week of Jan 2011 silver bottomed ~28. 3 months later it's 50. 4th week of Jan 2021 and silver is ~26. 10yrs later and volatility has done nothing but increase. 50 silver by April is ABSOLUTELY still on the table.
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@TheLastDegree
👍Like I've said, the driving emotion behind bull markets in $gold and $silver is a loss of confidence in currency, markets, economy, and governments ability to fix any of it. Confidence is eroding very quickly on all fronts in a VERY big way.
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Quick note on my thoughts on the blueprint for
#gold
over the next few months.
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends. To my international friends, have a happy Thursday.
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Figure yourself out. Why are you in
#gold
&
#silver
? If you're losing sleep worried about pullbacks, by all means derisk. But here's the truth...
If you're eyeing 100-200%+ gains, but scared of a 10% pullback in your portfolio, you're not gonna make it.
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It honestly boggles my mind that it's been 2.5 yrs since the last time I sat down to chat with Tom
@PalisadesRadio
about
#gold
#silver
& $GDX.
But we're doing it next week & perfect timing because I haven't been this excited about
#gold
& miners in yrs. Looking forward to it!
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@treadlightly14
No one wants silver, which is why bullion dealers say demand increased 20 fold this weekend and they are now totally sold out. Lol, sure.
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JR Silver>Major Silver≥ JR Gold >Major Gold ≥Silver> Gold
Gold +1.6%
Silver + 2.5%
$GDX+ 3.2%
$GDXJ + 3.5%
$SILJ + 3.75%
$ABBRF + 8.3%
Everything in its place.😊
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8
130
When its 8:00am in NY and you're waiting for the bombing raid, but
#gold
is still holding above 1700.
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4
130
Nobody likes to see midday reversals when their stocks make big breakouts higher.
But if you got to have one, let it fill the gap it made the same day, while still closing above the broken neckline of an inverse head & shoulders on heavy volume, like $SILJ did today.
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10
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@TheLastDegree
I went back to silver chart Oct 2010-April 2011, from price of 25-50 in 6 months. Many ugly days within a bull market that doubled. from high to low, -10% 1x, -8% 2x, -7% 2x, -6% 1x, and a 15% correction in Jan. Silver still doubled in 6 months from prices near where we are now.
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19
127
If you're not honestly analyzing the inverse of your position then you're not doing honest analysis. Are you a $gold bull? What's the bear case? We must look at all the arguments without bias to see which hold water. "To know your enemy you must become him" -Sun Tzu, Art of War.
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Here comes the hit. You had to figure that was coming. You know what to do
#gold
#silver
#silversqueeze
#HOLD
#DoNotSell
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The upside to manipulation is opportunity. If Walmart sold $2k Tvs for $500 they'd be sold out and on Ebay for $1800 within an hr.
You push it too far & smart investors will see value & take the opportunity.
#Silver
up 6% from last nights dump now. They're running out of steam.
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So,
#gold
is 2.5% from 2100 & those who've been wrong being bullish everyday for 3 yrs, are now bearish & expecting significant declines & are taking victory laps over this? 🤣
That light you see at the end of the tunnel? Is a freight train coming your way.
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#Silver
fast approaching major support ~22. It broke through in Sept, but regained quickly. I don't think we will be as lucky this time. $GDX $GDXJ & $SILJ all look ready to collapse as well.
Floor looks ready to give out across the board here. Be careful.
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I don’t post personal stuff for the most part. I keep to markets, focused on gold & silver. I feel like other things can be divisive & I don’t want to deviate from the common point of why we’re all here, but I have to mention this as it’s taken a huge toll on me recently. /
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Translation: World's richest man, running world's 7th biggest company has lost confidence in the US Dollar as a means of savings and commerce.
#gold
#silver
TESLA - MAY INVEST PORTION OF CASH IN SOME ALTERNATIVE RESERVE ASSETS INCLUDING DIGITAL ASSETS, GOLD BULLION, GOLD EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS IN FUTURE
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Well, it was nice of
#silver
to hold it's rally for us Americans into the US market open for a whole whopping hour...
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From
@Comm_Invest
, but I added some more lines of my own in purple.
Takeaway:
#Silver
has a tendency to break horizontal support and resistance, NOT trendline support or resistance. Consolidation here with horizontal resistance ~28-30 is looking an awful lot like 2010.
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19
115
Well this is a positive development.
Next, I want to see the $GDX firmly push above 32. A break back above 1760 area (Nov 30th low) on
#gold
and 34-35 area on the $GDX and we can start to feel more confident that we've seen the lows.
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Twitter can be a toxic place filled with hateful trolls, but I truly appreciate the outpouring of support & love from everyone here.
Gonna be out of commission for a bit of time right now. But I WILL be back.
Peace & love, and so much thanks!
In other/personal news, I've been having some serious health issues & been in hospital last few days. Trying to stay busy but posts/articles may be few & far between or not at all. May need to take a while off soon. Will do what I can when I can, but no guarantees. Sorry fam. 😢
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@TheLastDegree
GV out here counting the gaps. I'm not gonna do that, here's the chart. >5x your money in ~7 months.
In case anyone had doubts, the amount of leg work this guy does for you free of charge is uncanny. Few people I have the utmost respect for in this industry. GV is 1 of them.
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Finally, my
#gold
cycle chart. 15 yrs its nailed every major gold low. Calling for low on Jan 4th. Nov 30th was 1 month early. Retest now is 1 month late. Not perfect science, but buying in the months of cycle lows profited greatly. What do you think? Is it wrong this time?
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In a "shocking" move the Fed does exactly what the concensus view was for the 120th month in a row.
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Now picture being short this chart while watching your buddies firms imploding from their bad short positions. That's why $AG is up 17% after-hours. Take a pg from the playbook of wallstbets, in one of the best financial heists I've ever heard of. DONT SELL A SINGLE F*'N SHARE!
Fri thought: imagine being short this chart. If you didn't let your emotions get the best of you up 10% wed you waited for a pullback to cover. You got to exit b4 weekend but it didn't stay down. $ag 1 of few that were up today. Why? I said it wed. The short covering has begun 😉
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Well, here's the
#GSR
backtest I was expecting, as
#silver
closes the gap from yesterday's open. Nothing unusual, just the same extreme continued volatility I've been warning of. Buckle up.
#silversqueeze
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Guys, Bob Pisani said
#silver
is heavily regulated and he's not expecting any explosive move (as an explosive move is literally happening) we should probably sell, after all, he nailed it in 2006 when he said "trust me, gold is going nowhere".
#silversqueeze
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