Jays Prospectus
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Jays farm system coverage with a focus on MLB prospects and the MLB draft. Striving to make analytics more accessible and accepted. Contributor: @JaysJournal
Toronto, Ontario
Joined May 2023
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Congrats to Arjun Nimmala for taking home the Rawlings Gold Glove for High Schoolers
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Orelvis Martinez: 8 home runs
The top 3 of the Blue Jays order: 7 home runs
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Orelvis Martinez: 1.041 OPS
Addison Barger: .990 OPS
Will Robertson: 1.137 OPS
Spencer Horwitz: .910 OPS
The Bisons bats are bopping
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Ricky Tiedemann’s rehab start is done and hopefully it’s his last.
3 IP
1 H
0 ER
0 BB
9 K
50 pitches
He hit 97 a bunch. There’s absolutely nothing for him to prove at this level. Please just let him stay healthy, we deserve a great homegrown pitcher.
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The July Hitter of the Month is Davis Schneider. The 24 year old utility man put up these jaw dropping stats in July:
100 PA
.348/.540/.725
6 HR, 26 BB to 16 K
210 wRC+
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Davis Schneider is why you always make sure to give top performers a chance
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2022 first round pick Brandon Barriera getting some throws in at the Blue Jays Development Complex per his Instagram
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Arjun Nimmala is a Toronto Blue Jay.
I’m thrilled, he was 9th on my board and has superstar upside but a long way to go (he’s just 17!).
Also just want to point out in my final mock draft I had the Jays taking Nimmala so I’m giving myself a pat on the back for that
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How many players on the Jays are capable of hitting a ball this far?
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Arjun Nimmala was transferred to the development list per the Blue Jays transactions page.
He was hitting .167 with a 34% strikeout rate. Single-A at 18 was always going to be a challenge but the consistency in his ABs has been a problem
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Arjun Nimmala is at the Blue Jays Player Development Complex per his Instagram. He’s a native of the Tampa Bay Area so he will probably will be spending a lot of time there this off-season.
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Arjun Nimmala has his first professional hit. He’s 1-1 with a single and a walk so far in the FCL today.
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Why do people feel the need to tear down Varsho and Moreno for a trade they had no decision in? What’s done is done. I’ll always root for guys who were good Blue Jays and left with no ill intent. It reflects well on the farm system too
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The Blue Jays have added on another signing, Carlos Olivo. He’s a right handed pitcher from Colombia
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Brandon Barriera
3 IP
0 H
0 ER
0 BB
3 K
4 groundouts
Only threw 37 pitches so it’s pretty clear the Jays are being cautious with him after returning from injury. Look for that to bump up next start
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Arjun Nimmala is 1-1 with 2 walks today. He tripled to center field in his last plate appearance. He’s been nothing short of impressive so far
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Ricky Tiedemann is through 3 innings and 47 pitches at Single-A and has been flat out dominant.
3 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
The 3 batted balls in play? 2 weak groundouts and a pop out. He’s sitting 94-97 with the heater and topped out at 97.6
#NextLevel
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Looks like the Jays have added a knuckleballer to their system
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Unsigned draft picks that have added
@bluejays
to their Instagram bio over the last few days:
- Arjun Nimmala (1)
- Landen Maroudis (4)
- Connor O’Halloran (5)
- Nick Goodwin (7)
- Grant Rogers (11)
- Jackson Hornung (16)
- Aaron Munson (19)
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Here we go!
The latest update to my Top 30 Blue Jays prospect list.
I've posted my article in the comments but feel free to ask me anything.
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Shoutout to Davis Schneider going 3-3 with a walk today. Not an unusual sight for those that have watched him with the Bisons but he’s showing he belongs
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Ricky Tiedemann tonight
4.2 IP
3 H
0 ER (2 R)
0 BB
6 K
72 pitches and progress in the innings pitched department
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Orelvis Martinez looks like a guy who can help this team right now. He just hit another home run. That’s 28!
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Orelvis Martinez is 3-3 with a double for the Bisons. It’s still the 6th inning.
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Addison Barger has another home run. Three run shot this time. He’s homered in back to back games. The Jays prospects are firing on all cylinders today.
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I will say that the treatment of Spencer Horwitz has been pretty disgusting. If he can’t get a pinch hit opportunity against a RHP in these spots then why is here?
Merrifield has a 46 wRC+ since the start of July
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Ricky Tiedemann’s 2nd start in the Arizona Fall League:
5 IP
2 H
2 ER
1 BB
6 K
15 whiffs on 69 pitches (21.7% SwSt%).
He has a 2.70 ERA and 23.7% K-BB% through 10 IP (2 Starts) in one of baseball’s toughest run environments
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Blue Jays draft pick accounting so far
1. Arjun Nimmala $3,000,000 (+$746,000)
4. Landen Maroudis $1,500,000 (-$952,900)
7. Nick Goodwin $236,200 (+$2,500)
9. Sam Shaw $285,000 (-$109,100)
$313,500 over slot right now.
Total spendings: $5,021,200
Total draft pool: $6,529,700
1/5
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Ricky Tiedemann just made Jackson Holliday lose his balance (and his helmet) on a nasty slider
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The end of the Bisons game today marks the end of the MiLB calendar for the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ll cover the Arizona Fall League which will start
October 2nd.
They’ll be less activity on this account in the off-season. Thanks to everyone who followed and interacted this year.
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Davis Schneider hit his 20th home run of the year today. He also added a 2B, 1B and BB to his total today. His OPS is up to .965. There’s not much left to prove for him at this level.
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A long time coming Top 20 Jays Prospects Update. I haven't touched the list since May but I thought now seemed like a good time. I expanded to a Top 20 and still feel like I'm excluding people I wanted to mention.
Ask me anything!
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Was listening to Baseball America's podcast and Geoff Pontes had this to say about Arjun Nimmala after seeing a bunch of FCL games in person:
"I thought he was really impressive. And I think you could even argue of the draftees I saw, Nimmala was maybe the most impressive bat"
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Addison Barger
Pre-Injury
31.3% K%
9.6% BB%
Post-Injury
16.8% K%
15.2% BB%
The 140 wRC+ in August is nice but this is the real treat. I think he’s ready for a September call-up.
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Orelvis Martinez with another home run. 10th of the year at AAA and 27th of the year in total
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Baseball America with a glowing report on Spencer Horwitz
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Orelvis Martinez through 12 games at Triple-A
.250/.351/.438
2 HR
22.8% K%
14.0% BB%
.351 wOBA
95 wRC+
Not where he wants to be in terms of quality of contact but he has continued to limit the strikeouts and draw walks. Solid start to Triple-A
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Per the Jays transaction page, top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is going on the IL again
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Obviously he’s had some good batted ball luck but it’s never nothing when you’re 16-32 to start the year
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Orelvis Martinez had been playing a lot more 2B than 3B to end the season and is also playing 2B now in the Dominican League. I wanted to talk about where I think his future defensive home may be on the Blue Jays 🧵 (1/7)
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And with this I'm making an announcement. I'm excited to be joining
@JaysJournal
as a contributor. You can expect the same quality and quantity of articles from me but they'll be on rather than my Medium blog from now on. (1/2)
My spotlight piece on a unique but incredibly intriguing Blue Jays pitching prospect, Lazaro Estrada.
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Also from Buffalo:
Orelvis Martinez 3-4, 2B
Addison Barger 3-4
Spencer Horwitz is a man on fire. He just hit a go-ahead 3 run shot for his second home run of the game.
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Two double day for Addison Barger. Full spring slash line:
.412/.524/.588 (1.112 OPS)
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If this is it for Ricky Tiedemann's MiLB season it was a great way to cap it off.
4 IP
2 H
0 ER
2 BB
6 K
75 pitches
He looked in control. Great feel for his slider today and was spotting his fastball like he normally does when he's right. Leaned on his changeup more at the end
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Bowden Francis has been excellent at Triple-A and that continued today.
4 IP
3 H
1 ER
2 BB
6 K
Considering the offensive environment at the level, a 2.88 ERA is absolutely stellar
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Orelvis Martinez came into the game as a pinch hitter for Horwitz who was hit by a pitch. He went 3-5 with a double and a home run.
The Bisons are up 14-2
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Shouldn’t be a surprise given the speculation but
#1
Jays prospect Ricky Tiedemann has been promoted to AAA
#NextLevel
His AA stats:
32 IP
5.06 ERA | 2.12 FIP | 2.48 xFIP
16.31 K/9 | 5.63 BB/9 | 0.28 HR/9
.415 BABIP
37% Whiff%
34.30% CSW%
57.6% LOB%
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Davis Schneider is inevitable. His 21st bomb of the year.
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Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez combined to go 5-8 with a HR, 2B, and 2 walks today. They scored 5 runs. Bisons bats are waking up.
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Quick scouting report on new Jays pitching prospect Chris McElvain
- 23 y.o RHP
- 3.75 ERA in 96 IP across A/A+
- 93 MPH fastball with good characteristics, average pitch
- A slider is most used secondary
- Throws a changeup, curveball, and a sinker as well
- Average control
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Another big night for Davis Schneider. He went 3-3 with 2 doubles and a walk. His OPS is up to .972. If the Jays are looking to trade him ahead of the deadline he’s making quite the impression on rival scouts
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Congrats Davis Schneider!
Here’s the scouting report on my 7th ranked prospect:
- Hits the ball hard often and when he does it’s often in the air
- Good barrel and sweet spot accuracy
- Takes his walks (18.4%) but not a high average guy
- Can play 2B, 3B, LF, 1B
Davis Schneider is indeed en route to Boston, per source. He’s not on the 40-man roster so Blue Jays will need to make a move there.
Amazing story for the 28th-rounder in 2017, whose power numbers picked up at Buffalo. Mostly played 2B/LF this year with reps at 1B, 3B and RF.
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913
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Spencer Horwitz had 3 hits today including a double. He’s caught fire over the last month or so and his OPS is up to .900.
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Chad Dallas today:
5 IP
4 H
2 R (1 ER)
0 BB
10 K
One of his best starts of the year.
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Orelvis Martinez with a home run off the Pirates’ Jared Jones who’s a Top 100 prospect himself.
This was 109.6 MPH off the bat which I believe is the hardest ball he’s hit since arriving at Triple-A
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108 MPH and 456 feet later, Addison Barger has his first home run of the year
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Arjun Nimmala just took Sawyer Gipson-Long deep who is 8 years older than him and pitched in MLB last year.
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Congratulations to the Vancouver Canadians. Northwest League Champions.
10 runs to win it.
Martinez 3-5
Spain 3-5, 2 2B
Goodwin 1-2, BB, HR
Doughty 2-5, 2 2B
Jennings 3 IP 0 ER 5 K
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Full Jays Draft Haul so far
1st Arjun Nimmala (SS)
3rd Juaron Watts-Brown (RHP)
4th Landen Maroudis (RHP)
5th Connor O'Halloran (LHP)
6th Jace Bohrofen (OF)
7th Nick Goodwin (SS)
8th Braden Berry (OF)
9th Sam Shaw (SS)
10th Josh Mollerus (RHP)
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On a night when many closed the book on the 2023 Blue Jays, Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez both hit home runs.
Look for them to be a part of the plan for 2024 and hopefully add some much needed pop and life to the team.
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Congratulations to Bowden Francis on his first big league win tonight. He’s struggled with the long ball as expected but he looks like he belongs.
I’m glad it looks like we might have our first prospect success story in quite some time now
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Ricky Tiedemann 16
Davis Schneider 28
Orelvis Martinez 36
Schneider has not graduated from prospect status for ZiPS and they’re a big fan of his
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Blue Jays
#1
prospect Ricky Tiedemann is listed as the probable starter for tonight’s game in the Arizona Fall League.
Start time at 5:30 EST
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Back to back games with a home run for Addison Barger. He’s really raking it to start this year
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I don’t normally post RBI singles but when it’s off Paul Skenes…
Orelvis Martinez, MLB's No. 80 prospect, gets the
@BuffaloBisons
(
@BlueJays
) on the board against Paul Skenes!
Watch this game FREE:
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Just touching on the Soto rumours, I’d really hope they don’t include Tiedemann for one year of Soto. I LOVE the idea of extending him but from what we’ve heard he’s 100% testing free agency. With that being said, everyone else should be on the table.
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My August Hitter of the Month is Jace Bohrofen of the Dunedin Blue Jays who put up these monster numbers:
14 G
64 PA
.333/.469/.765
6 HR / 4 2B
13 BB / 11 K
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All 4 affiliates as well as the big league team won today to complete the org sweep
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Orelvis Martinez is doing the thing again… 3 run bomb here in the 4th
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Keith Law: Brandon Barriera showed up to camp heavier than anticipated (and then subsequently hit the IL with an elbow issue). Chatter is that the Blue Jays might be weary of taking another high school pitcher in Round 1
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I don’t normally post pitcher stat lines until the end of the outing but I’ll make an exception tonight. Adam Macko is dominating.
4 IP
1 H
0 ER
0 BB
8 K
2
2
85
Johnny Sources!
BREAKING NEWS: Addison Barger has been called up to the Toronto Blue Jays per sources. Pls credit when it happens
#JohnnySources
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Spencer Horwitz is a man on fire. He just hit a go-ahead 3 run shot for his second home run of the game.
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Baseball Prospectus ranked two Blue Jays prospects in their Top 101 prospect list.
Ricky Tiedemann at 26
Orelvis Martinez at 95
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Blue Jays hitters in the Arizona Fall League:
Damiano Palmegiani .400/.536/.650
Dasan Brown .333/.368/.500
Will Robertson .250/.478/.375
That’s 8th, 21st and 23rd in qualified OPS amongst 68 hitters. With Tiedemann dealing it’s a perfect start for the Fall Blue Jays
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Arjun Nimmala’s day in the FCL:
1-3, 2 BB, 1 K
It’s only 16 PAs but he’s already walked 5 times. For someone who was characterized as having pitch selection and chase concerns this is a great sign. As he shows maturity in his approach, everything else will open up.
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Randy Soto, a left-handed hitting catcher from Venezuela
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16 y/o Venezuelan SS Kennew Blanco is expected to sign with the Blue Jays in the January IFA window.
There was some confusion about his eligibility but I’ve since confirmed that he’s eligible for this year. His June 21st birthday is ahead of the cut off.
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Orelvis Martinez’s hit tool 📈
At AAA:
28.0 O-Swing% (chase rate)- MLB average is 30%
84.3 Z-Contact% (in zone contact rate) -MLB average is 87%
29.3 Whiff%- MLB average is 23.3%
He’s never going to be a good contact guy but his new found discipline pairs nicely with his power
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Jace Bohrofen makes it 3 home runs in 3 Single-A games. I had him as a Round 3 target for us and we got him in the 6th. He’s been very very impressive so far
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Spencer Horwitz goes way deep (109 MPH, 421 ft) in his first MiLB plate appearance of the season. And it was off a pretty good prospect in Will Warren.
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The command continues to look a bit off for Ricky Tiedemann. His day:
3.2 IP
3 H
2 ER
3 BB
7 K
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82
Addison Barger’s day:
2-3, 2 2B, BB
His OPS sits at .797 on the season. It’s 1.075 in August.
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Top Blue Jays International Signing Franklin Rojas home run reel
(kplbaseball on Instagram)
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Orelvis Martinez singles in his first at bat against a rehabbing Carlos Rodon
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Hagen Danner scouting report:
High 90s fastball that gets good ride on it. He pairs that with a good slider that tunnels nicely with the heater and mixes in a curveball. 25.2% K-BB% is excellent but he’s struggled with the home run. A 26.7% HR/FB is ridiculously high.
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Since returning to Triple-A, Addison Barger has a 109 wRC+ (.839 OPS) with a lowly .266 BABIP.
Let's compare the 3 true outcomes:
11.5 BB%, 31.0 K%, 1.15% HR% PRE-INJURY
15.7 BB%, 20.1 K%, 4.48% HR% POST-INJURY
He's making more contact and continues to smoke the ball.
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Alek Manoah accounts for 7.8/8.3 of the WAR from Jays first round picks in the last decade
The total WAR of every MLB teams 1st round picks the last 10 years
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Chad Dallas tonight:
7 IP
3 H
0 ER
0 BB
11 K
When he’s on he’s on.
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Arjun Nimmala has 11 walks in 7 professional games. He has walked in every game he’s played.
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Some of this is FCL pitching and it’s obviously only 7 games but I can’t say I expected this at all.
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And right on cue a great defensive stop and throw from Palmegiani
The guys over at MLB Pipeline who are broadcasting tonight just said that they’d bump Palmegiani at least to a 45 grade defender (he was at at 40) and that he’s improved as a defender this year
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Outfielder Junior Arias taking hacks last summer. 6”4 and only getting stronger, Arias has the most power projection in the Jays signing class.
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My
#15
prospect Connor Cooke goes three up three down with 2 Ks.
He lead with a 95 MPH fastball (was 94 MPH last year). Showed off the nasty slider. Spotted his changeup for called strikes.
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Here's a look at Roden's home run today. The Jays are hoping his stance change will unlock more power
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