James Norton-Brown
@JamesNBCricket
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Kohli has left 66% of his first 50 balls to start todays innings. That is by far his highest figure in test cricket with his second highest 46%. He is showing an incredibly high level of restraint against a tempting line.
#SAvIND
12
172
2K
Since 2013 India have made the knockout stage of 9 ICC events. If you assume each knockout game is 50/50 the probability of India go trophyless throughout is 3.9%
18
240
2K
Kohli left 50% of the 158 deliveries it took to reach his 50. That is the second highest number since 2006, only Cook vs Australia in 2009 was higher with 50.6%. Only 1 other time has Virat left over 40% of deliveries on his way to 50, 2012 in Perth.
#SAvIND
10
144
1K
This is the first time Shadab has batted at 4 for Pakistan in T20s, it's a position he has been brilliant at in the PSL with an average batting impact of +6.8. A late change to their batting deployment prior to the
#T20WC2022
but potentially a correct one.
#PAKvNZ
6
103
1K
Kohli now has the best total batting impact in T20 World Cup history! His combination of wicket preservation in the Powerplay and run scoring at the death means he has overtaken Jayawardene as the best T20 World Cup batter of all time, having played 10 fewer innings.
#T20WorldCup
6
130
757
In the
#BNGvSCO
game, while Bangladesh won the dot ball battle 55-42, Scotland won the boundary battle 15-12. Scotland looked reckless at times with the bat, it also looks like they were focused on winning the boundary battle at all costs. That is the right strategy.
7
43
486
According to our numbers Jos Buttler is the best in the world at adapting to conditions. This is because he is exceptional at both run scoring and wicket prevention. The last two games are a perfect example of this. He is the perfect modern day anchor
#T20WorldCup
#ENGvSL
6
52
434
So far in this
#CWC23
Bumrah has been a class apart from all other bowlers. His Expected Average of 22 is the best in the competition, while Shami is in second with an xAve 25. The 3rd best bowler in the competition is closer to 25th than to Bumrah in 1st.
3
87
406
If South Africa had won that match their qualification chances would have stood at 55%, with the no result they see them drop to 38%. A potentially decisive moment in the group; it means that the SA v Pakistan match may effectively be an elimination game for SA.
#T20WorldCup
17
45
379
According to our Competition WinViz model this loss drops Sri Lanka's chance of qualification down to 47%. When you also look at the weather forecast for the Netherlands v SL game of Thursday it's very possible this result is fatal
#T20WC2022
1
46
311
In games where one team wins the dot ball battle and the other the boundary battle, the team that hit more boundaries wins 64% of the time. This is the key reason why
#WI
have been so dominant in this format and it will be an important factor throughout this
#T20WorldCup
7
43
278
The 5 other times he has left 40%+ of his first 50 balls his scores were 75 (2012 Perth), 51*, 149 (2018 Edgbaston), 44 and 105*. Good early signs for the Indian captain.
2
22
222
A very successful start to the new strategy, as a good spin hitter and a very fast starter Shadab should be successful in this role. Floating him and Nawaz allows for a more favourable entry points for rest of the batters which could be the key to unlocking this batting lineup.
This is the first time Shadab has batted at 4 for Pakistan in T20s, it's a position he has been brilliant at in the PSL with an average batting impact of +6.8. A late change to their batting deployment prior to the
#T20WC2022
but potentially a correct one.
#PAKvNZ
6
103
1K
3
12
191
Getting to around 160 is the key for
#AFG
here. In a scenario where they score 160 here and
#IND
beat both Scotland and Namibia scoring 200 and bowling them out for 130, Afghanistan would qualify with a 1 run win over
#NZ
on Net Run Rate (1.31 v 1.35).
#T20WorldCup
8
25
184
While the bowling was incredible, England's opening pair was always a risk. There was little data to suggest they would be well suited to the challenge. Against pace in the last 3 years Hameed averages 26 and Crawley 33. Sibley and Burns average over 40
#Ashes
5
12
166
A look into the fascinating battle outside off stump that defined Virat Kohli's first innings 79 and the historical struggles that shaped his unique game plan .
2
22
138
The last two
#ENG
games show why it's futile to slow down in the middle and just get a "score on the board". Increasing the target from 100 to 120 on good pitches doesn't help your win % much at all. You need to reach 140/150 minimum.
#T20WorldCup
2
8
132
This batting performance from
#AFG
perfectly shows why going hard early is the right choice. It allows you time to adapt if things go wrong and get to a par total. If you save resources to go hard at the death and fail you don't have any chance to recover.
#T20WorldCup
3
20
131
Since 2020 only two bowler have recorded an expected average under 18 over an innings (min 11 overs), Bumrah and Shami in the first innings of this game. India will need similar incredible performances in the second innings to secure this historic victory
#SAvIND
1
11
121
We saw this again today in the
#INDvsNZ
game. Teams need to carry on with intent after early wickets instead of settling for totals that are all but impossible to defend.
#T20WorldCup
The last two
#ENG
games show why it's futile to slow down in the middle and just get a "score on the board". Increasing the target from 100 to 120 on good pitches doesn't help your win % much at all. You need to reach 140/150 minimum.
#T20WorldCup
2
8
132
3
18
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While the decision to drop Pope is justified I wonder what the plan is with him long term. He is the best young talent in the English game at the moment so there should be serious effort put into how to maximise his ability.
5
2
121
A win for India sees their chance of qualification rise to 78% while it falls to 53% with a loss. For Australia a win increases it to 71% but they fall to 44% with a loss. The winner takes the lead in the group while the loser will fall right into a qualification fight.
#CWC23
2
16
123
Since 2002 when Australia bat first and score over 400:
🇮🇳 v India
4 Wins
5 Draws
4 Losses
🌍 v Everyone Else
43 Wins
10 Draws
0 Losses
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31
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The match was already essentially a knock out game for Pakistan, but through no fault of their own SA are now in the same position. The major beneficiaries are India who can lose to South Africa and still be guaranteed a spot if they win their other 3 matches.
#T20WorldCup
If South Africa had won that match their qualification chances would have stood at 55%, with the no result they see them drop to 38%. A potentially decisive moment in the group; it means that the SA v Pakistan match may effectively be an elimination game for SA.
#T20WorldCup
17
45
379
6
29
107
Something to note about this chase bias in this
#T20WorldCup
is that a lot of it is driven by massively under par first innings totals. In games where the side batting first scores 150+ they have won 5 out of 9. When teams scored 160+ they win 4 out of 6.
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12
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Massive first game today,
#IND
will be hoping for
#NAM
upset in the first game. It would put them as favourites for qualification to the semi finals.
#NZ
winning would keep them in prime position, just needing to beat
#AFG
in the last game to go through.
#T20WorldCup
3
7
92
The decision over what to do when Root or Cummins win the toss is a no-brainer today - bowl first. With the game very likely to be rain reduced you put yourself in a better position to save the game if you are behind or win if you are ahead by batting last.
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Early days in a long competition but this could be a costly loss for England. According to our model England's chances of qualification fall from 60% to 45% with a loss. New Zealand see their chance rise from 41% to 57%.
#CWC2023
4
11
90
This is made worse by teams rebuilding too slowly and settling for below par totals. Teams have only won 1 out of 13 games when they set under 150. It is better to run the risk of getting bowled out very cheaply than to settle for well below par score.
8
10
86
Huge jeopardy in second game, especially with
#AFG
's huge NRR advantage. Both
#IND
and
#NZ
essentially have to win out to be confident of qualification. There is a chance to better Afghanistans NRR but it will be tough. 5 years of planning could be ruined in 2 games!
#T20WorldCup
6
13
77
The bounce angle of the overturned dismissal was the 47th most out of 91 deliveries Ashwin has bowled this match. He is bowling with a lot of top spin on a bouncy pitch but no more bounce than would be expected.
#SAvIND
3
4
80
Less jeopardy and more opportunity in the second game,
#PAK
give themselves a 82% chance of qualification with a win today or be right back amongst it with a loss at 42%.
#NZ
would go to 58% with a win or 22% with a loss.
#T20WorldCup
4
6
72
With another shock defeat, West Indies see their chance of qualification fall to 42%. Whereas Scotland's rise to 73%. A larger fall than we saw for Sri Lanka as Group B is the more competitive group. Huge game next where the winner will see their chances rise to 64%
#T20WorldCup
0
7
71
Massive game in Group 1 first today.
#SAF
can put themselves firmly in pole position for qualification with a win today, this is due to their NRR advantage over other teams in the group. Both
#AUS
and
#WI
will be hoping Bangladesh can pull off the upset.
#T20WorldCup
4
7
64
#BAN
all but out with another loss today, whereas
#ENG
can take a big step to the semi finals with another win. The other teams in the group will be hoping for a Bangladesh win today to throw the group wide open.
#T20WorldCup
3
7
70
India have scored 26 off edges so far in this innings, the most in any innings this
#T20WorldCup
. They have only lost 1 wicket and scored at a SR of 260. A sign that they have been quite fortunate in this innings, but this is the luck you can earn when you play with high intent.
1
6
62
Another must win game for
#IND
, they also need a big NRR win and to hope
#NZ
lose their last game but not by enough to boost the NRR of
#AFG
. Interesting decision to bowl first, makes it slightly harder to make a huge NRR gains
#T20WorldCup
7
8
62
Conway is a great player of spin so his wicket was always going to be critical in this match. The fact that he is also the only leftie in the top 5 heightens this importance, if SL can dismiss him Hasaranga will have a great chance to put his stamp on this match.
#T20WorldCup
2
4
65
Huge night game today,
#IND
lose they are out but even with a win the way through is tough. They would need
#NZ
to lose a game for them to go through on NRR. For
#AFG
while today is an important game regardless of the result the game vs New Zealand will be must win
#T20WorldCup
3
7
62
Situation for
#WI
is clear, win big twice and hope
#ENG
can beat South Africa. Chasing will make it harder to make big NRR gains today, but they play
#AUS
in the last game so can make double gains there.
#SAF
still favourites for qualification but its getting tight
#T20WorldCup
2
4
59
Pretty simple situation today, for
#SAF
to qualify they either need to better
#AUS
result or have the same result with better margin of around 20 runs or 3 overs. A comfortable win for Australia this morning would make things very difficult for South Africa
#T20WorldCup
1
9
53
If
#WI
lose today they only have a 7% chance of qualification according to our model vs 37% with a win. In comparison
#SAF
can boost their chances to 40% or see them fall to 9%. Not far off an elimination match for both sides.
#T20WorldCup
3
11
52
There is a chase bias in general in T20 cricket but it has been exacerbated early the tournament by early wickets in the first innings. In the first innings teams are averaging 16 in the first 4 overs vs 26 in the second innings. This is a trend we should not expect to continue.
1
6
52
Here is every innings from all tests since 2016 (with tracking). You can see a clear correlation. The red data point is the 4th innings of the
#INDvSA
test and the blue points the other innings from this match.
I want a scatter plot of xAve vs false shots over a huge sample of innings.
3
0
7
7
4
56
#ENG
can lock up qualification with a win today. Even with a loss they are heavy favourites.
#SAF
will be hoping for a
#SL
defeat, this is even before considering that England could rest players in the game vs South Africa if they have the top spot sealed.
#T20WorldCup
4
5
49
As you can see here that ball was right on the length where the ball should be expected to go over the stumps.
3
5
48
After the first full week of matches the two teams supported by CricViz are top of their tables! Great to be working with both the
@TheDesertVipers
and the
@PretoriaCapsSA
. A great sign of what you can do when combining great franchises with best in class analysis.
3
9
47
As well as helping with talent ID, allowing players to play high level domestic competition can also show international sides how best to use players already in the team. The best example of this is Buttler's move to open, Pakistan will be hoping this change will be as successful
0
4
45
To put some numbers to this, Sri Lanka have a 39% chance of qualification if the Netherlands win and a 49% chance if Namibia win.
#T20WorldCup
2
4
45
In some ways this validates the approach
#WI
took vs
#Eng
. While they could have picked the matchups targeted better, they wouldn't have been better served settling for 120. Obviously there are NRR implications but if your focus is winning the correct method is clear
#T20WorldCup
2
6
45
#AUS
can make themselves likely for the second qualification spot with a win today or
#SL
can give themselves a real chance with the toughest games coming up. Interestingly, this is also a big game for
#SAF
who will be hoping for a Sri Lanka victory today.
#T20WorldCup
3
4
41
Today exposed Ireland's potential issues v pace hitting right-handers. Raza has a huge pace-lean, one of the biggest in the competition based on our models. Ireland's don't have a front line spinner who could expose this weaknesses & spin the ball away from his bat.
#T20WorldCup
0
5
40
False shot % is actually more correlated with xWickets rather than xAverage as that is a measure of how threatening the bowling is without looking at run saving.
6
4
42
Heres a look at how qualification chances have changed through the
#CWC23
so far, Australia the big fallers so far with South Africa and New Zealand putting themselves in a great position early on.
3
5
43
Australia are under pressure early on the
#CWC23
, another loss today will see them struggling to qualify, but if they win they get right into the race for the top 4. Similarly for South Africa a win today makes them favourites for a semi final, while a loss makes it a toss up.
2
3
43
A tough path for both
#WI
and
#BAN
to make it through the group but they can keep themselves alive with a win today. The loser is effectively out. Whichever team wins will be heavily routing for
#ENG
tomorrow to further boost their chances.
#T20WorldCup
0
3
34
There are two key knock on effect due to the absence of Hardik to look out for.
1) The lack of another death hitter means MI can't deploy Pollard as aggressively.
2) If CSKs left handers can get after Krunal, his overs could have been crucial.
0
0
27
Sending him back to Surrey will just result in him scoring more runs. If they don't feel they can back his talent, I wonder if giving him a run at 3 in the ODI side could help. His style should suit the role and it would give him opportunity to test his game at a higher level.
3
0
30
With both Eng and Aus opting a batting heavy balance so far, it will be interesting to see if they adapt if we get a shortened match today. Batting depth becomes less important and it is harder to get through weaker 5th bowlers, so look for them to go bowling heavy.
#T20WorldCup
1
1
29
The chance to work with some of the best minds in cricket was the main reason I was so excited to join CricViz, Freddie and his team did not disappoint! He has played a huge role in shaping the way all of us at CricViz think about the game, excited to see him in his next chapter.
2
1
28
Very happy to have
@KarthikeyaCric
as a part of the Data Science team at
@CricViz
. An excellent addition to our growing team!
0
1
28
For reference a 60 run victory is roughly equivalent to a chase in 12 overs.
#IND
need two victories of around that size followed by a tight
#AFG
win vs
#NZ
(no more that 12 runs in this scenario) to qualify. It's a narrow path for India but it's still possible.
#T20WorldCup
2
1
24
Helping construct the squads and working with both of these franchises has been a lot of fun over the last few months. Shame it didn't quite go our way in the finals today, onto the next challenge with
@DelhiCapitals
at the
#WPLAuction
tomorrow
Hugely proud of both Vipers and Capitals for their successes this season. Frustrating day - to put it lightly - but the work done by
@JamesNBCricket
,
@KarthikeyaCric
,
@TheCricketArk
and the rest of the team underpins all the positive things CricViz do🔥🔥
2
4
42
0
4
24
Interesting to see how aggressive Aus are with the ball here, if England also win out NRR will be decisive. Beat Ireland by 75 and they overtake England, winning is essential but if they don't make a substantial NRR gain here their fate will be out of their hands.
#T20WorldCup
0
4
23
@mroller98
The quality of the two innings were very different, 23% false shots in that Sunrisers game vs only 11% today.
2
0
23
We're hiring Data Scientists at
@CricViz
. If you are a data-scientist and want to join a growing team and work on a wide range of exciting projects please apply.
I'm happy to answer any questions by DM or email.
5
6
21
When you also consider that the pitch is expected to be greener than usual due to the recent weather, so the best time to bowl might be the first morning, the decision is simple.
#Ashes
1
0
19
The major issue with red ball cricket in England is the lack of quality in the Championship. As well as preparing players poorly it means that selectors don't trust the data generated from the competition and players can't prove themselves at any level below tests.
1
0
19
A big win today is crucial to Indias chances, both boosting their NRR and harming Afghanistans. In most scenarios where
#IND
qualify they have to beat
#AFG
on NRR, so winning big is just as important as winning today.
#T20WorldCup
1
1
17
It is possible that our model is underestimating the chance of huge NRR gains vs the weaker sides. So it is possible we are slightly low on Indias chances of making up their huge deficit.
0
1
17
A win for
#SL
followed by an
#ENG
win would set us up for a very exciting finish to this group. If both these results happen we would see
#WI
with a 16% chance of qualification.
#T20WorldCup
0
1
15
Similar story in the second innings, Kohli resisted for a long time but South Africa's patience finally drew him into the shot he had been trying to avoiding all innings.
#SAvIND
A look into the fascinating battle outside off stump that defined Virat Kohli's first innings 79 and the historical struggles that shaped his unique game plan .
2
22
138
0
1
15
He manages to combine expert insights with a willingness to learn and evolve views, a very rare combination. The IPL Mega Auction is the highlight of my career, so grateful to share that with Freddie and excited to continue the process with RCB this year and hopefully beyond.
1
1
14
#NZ
bowling allocation in the Powerplay will be fascinating today. Since Milne joined the side he has bowled 2 overs in the phase in 3 out of 4 games. While Santner has only bowled 2 Powerplay overs the whole competition. I would expect that to change today
#T20WorldCup
0
0
13
Pretty close to a must win for
#AUS
, there is a route if they lose but its tough.
#SAF
will be hoping for
#BAN
win today to make them strong favourites for qualification, it would mean they would still be favourites even with a loss to
#ENG
.
#T20WorldCup
2
2
14
To further illustrate this, the last time
#ENG
lost a T20 chasing less than 140 was in 2014
#T20WorldCup
0
0
9
This means that intangible skills are considered as you can't trust the numbers, which leads to muddled selections (Crawley, Hameed). It also means players who play their way into the test side (Pope, Burns, Sibley) aren't given a long run as their quality isn't considered proven
1
0
10
So far this IPL has seen the lowest Powerplay average and the highest dismissal rate of any IPL in history. As well as helping sides with elite new ball bowlers this puts severe pressure on sides with top heavy batting orders where new ball wickets are more incisive.
0
2
11
I think it has only happened once before in the 1st innings of the 1885 Ashes test in Sydney
Is this be the first time no’s 10 and 11 have been the two top scorers in a test match innings?
@AWSStats
13
0
107
0
1
12
The other issue this presents is that it makes it tough for players to get into the team from outside the Lions/Youth setup (Bohannon). This further reduces an already small talent pool, and makes the sport less accessible as the Youth teams are almost entirely privately educated
2
0
9
New Zealand have chosen a very bowling heavy balance, with both the anchors failing today there is a lot of pressure on the middle order. With Sodhi at 8 Sri Lanka will be looking to keep NZ to a very low score.
#T20WorldCup
0
0
8
Will be interesting to see how Simmons approaches Shamsi. His role has expired given the match situation which should lead to high levels of aggression but there will be a concern with exposing the middle order to a negative matchup.
1
0
7
This is exactly the type of scenario where you need a model to interpret the situation. While it is easy to come up with a hypothetical for this match to get very competitive and interesting, there is another route where the draw becomes the only likely outcome.
#ENGvNZ
1
0
7
This pre-lunch period is crucial, if England manage to bowl NZ out then we are in for a great afternoon, otherwise the draw is very likely. WinViz takes both of these possibility into account before coming up with the probabilities.
0
0
7
@fwildecricket
Against the strong amount of right to left spin they would face vs
#Nz
or
#IND
Willey is an excellent option with the bat, if he is allowed to bat through the middle.
#T20WorldCup
1
1
5
SL need to be careful not to fall into the trap Afg set for chasing teams. They must consider how many overs Rashid has left. So while the current required rate is 8.2, if you assume only a run a ball of Rashid they would need 9.1 of the other 7 overs.
#T20WorldCup
0
0
7
@benjonescricket
@fwildecricket
Where should Pollard bat, and why is it in the middle overs?
Should India still consider going batting heavy with Hardik at 7 or is that unnecessary with Jadeja fit?
Is Milne for Southee the most likely squad change?
Was it right for England to save Parkinson for the Ashes?
0
0
5
Promoting Pollard up the order would allow Simmons to go harder at his matchup with confidence.
#T20WorldCup
0
0
4
Really interesting listen on the two way link between poverty and mental health! Very proud of the work
@ErrinCR
is doing at Mind.
If you feel like understanding more about the work I'm leading at Mind around breaking the two way link between poverty & mental health, or just fancy a cringe at my first attempt at podcasting - give us a listen 😄
@diversemindsuk
0
1
5
0
2
3
@fwildecricket
Another thing to note, is that the top order of
#WI
are weak against off spin so having Moeen and Livingstone in the team removes the need for 2 new ball seam bowlers.
0
0
3
Very excited to be part of the
@CricViz
team!
0
0
2