Research Associate LSE | Visiting Professor Kent | Conflict & Security | Cyprus, Balkans and SE Europe | Secession and State Creation (OUP, 2023) | YouTube
If you are looking for an accessible guide to the political, legal and international relations aspects of state creation, independence, and recognition, may I suggest my
@OUPAcademic
book with
@FabryMiki
. Written for a general audience and great value! :-)
Sorry, but I feel I have to do this.
A thread on the
#DominicCummings
scandal and why, like many millions across the
#UK
, I am so angry about this. And why, like so many people from across the political spectrum, I cannot and will not just let it pass.
In the meantime, I grieve for a wonderful woman who, fortunately, had a good life - despite the lonely manner of her passing.
Gorffwys mewn heddwch. 🏴🏴🏴
In almost 8 years on Twitter, and after 4 years of
#Brexit
, I’ve never reported & blocked as many (far-right) bots as I have this weekend. Truly incredible. I’m not naturally conspiratorial, but someone really wants Cummings protected.
@Twitter
really needs to deal with this.
This is why people are angry. Not only was the decision to unilaterally break the guidelines reckless, the decision to defend that choice is callous. Johnson, and everyone who has defended Cummings these past days, has shown a fundamental lack of respect and humanity.
The idea that
#Scotland
should wait 40 years for another vote on independence is obscene. The whole basis of the 2014 vote has been invalidated by
#Brexit
. There’s now an unassailable moral case for a new vote when the people of Scotland show they want one
To add insult to injury, my family, like so many others across the country, are now presented as lacking a caring ‘instinct’ for obeying the supposedly strict instructions not to break the lockdown and isolation guidelines at any cost.
I cannot begin to tell you how angry I am about Cummings and Johnson. To think that her, and my family’s, decision to obey the lockdown rules has now been belittled, even though I suspect that it cost her her life, has been absolutely sickening.
My grandmother died aged 99 very recently. I have no doubt it was due to lockdown. Deprived of social contact - despite regular calls from her family - she just gave up. She really and truly lived for her games of Bridge each week.
@devinamehra
@fasc1nate
Same. I don’t think opening a tweet has ever produced such a strong and sudden emotional reaction. My son has muscular dystrophy. He too takes it all incredibly well, but seeing this just set me off!
@pieandgravy
@fasc1nate
No. While some may take offence, most will see the message for what it was meant to be: a father’s loving tribute to his boy. My son would love to be able to walk again. While happy he has the freedom of a wheelchair, he knows the wider limits he faces. I too feel pain at that.
@jombibo
@campbellclaret
@BorisJohnson
@MattHancock
No. Not at all. My grandmother died during lockdown. The behaviour of Cummings, and the government’s efforts to defend him at all costs, has made a mockery of the decision of millions to follow the rules. Do you not understand this?
This is not only utterly obscene, it’s indefensibly naive. Ukraine isn’t a ‘normal’ war. It’s a systemic war. A Russian victory would rewrite the rules of international relations for the 21st century. Aggression backed by nuclear threats wins. Many, many more lives will be lost.
Our letter in support of peace negotiations in Ukraine was published in the Financial Times today. I hope it will contribute to increase the momentum created by
@PM_ViktorOrban
’s peace efforts. Here’s the full text — please share!
Russia’s latest military gains in the Donetsk
@GoncharenkoUa
Seriously, don’t make matters worse. This is an irresponsible and unnecessary comment. And it also raises all sorts of complex questions that I’m not sure Ukraine is ready to answer. If you really believe in peace, don’t become part of the problem in the Balkans. Focus on home.
.
@IanBlackfordMP
: “The vast majority of Scottish MPs voted for revoking Article50, an indicative referendum and Common Market 2.0. All ignored. Time is coming when
#Scotland
must take its future in its own hands as an independent country.”
@annettesjl
@fascinatorfun
Thank you so much. I really didn’t want to have to do this. It is obviously a private issue. But it is important for people who should understand, but seemingly don’t, why so many people feel so strongly about what has happened.
Extraordinary! Labour frontbench MP
@JohnHealey_MP
has just told
@afneil
that
@UKLabour
accepts the
#Brexit
Withdrawal Agreement and will not seek to renegotiate it! Instead, they will seek to negotiate the future relationship. Is this now formal
#Labour
policy? Utter shambles.
@MarinaPurkiss
Absolutely fantastic. So, that’s all we’re left with now from the Brexiters? “We have to stick with it because can’t divide society by reversing it.” So we all have to suffer for their stupidly and lies. Well done for calling him out so perfectly.
This is a nonsense story
@Telegraph
. There is absolutely no question that the
#EU
would permit an independent
#Scotland
to join. And it would happen quickly. Any suggestion it would have to get in line behind the Western
#Balkans
is simply false.
Today marks 30th anniversary of
#Somaliland
’s Declaration of Independence. 18 May 1991. Many congratulations to the people of the country. The case for international recognition could not be stronger. Time for the international community to welcome it as an equal.
#SomalilandAt30
@JamesDelingpole
Unbelievable. There are millions of us who have been unable to go out for months due to shielding sick or elderly. Masks give us an opportunity to get back some semblance of normality. Then people like you do this. You are deeply unpleasant and clearly selfish to your very core.
@SamRamani2
@iioannides
Serious question: what exactly is your point? Russia is hardly going to admit that it’s about to launch a war of aggression. And perhaps Ukraine wants to keep things calm while others try to warn off Russia. And maybe that’s the point. This talk isn’t prediction, it’s deterrence.
I subscribe to the view that the
#EU
integration of the Western
#Balkans
is not enlargement. It is completion. Have a debate about Turkey, Ukraine or the Caucasus. But discussing the merits of taking in a region already wholly surrounded by the EU just seems illogical and unfair.
Goodbye to the former former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. FYROM is no more. Many congratulations and a warm welcome to the Republic of North Macedonia.
#NorthMacedonia
🇲🇰
Serious question. Am I missing something? If
#DominicCummings
was so worried about all the journalists hounding him at home, and that’s why he needed to go to Durham, why didn’t the media know he broke lockdown until over two months later?
@emcmillanscott
@CharlesTannock
@thetimes
@peoplesvote_uk
Always found it ironic how many Brexiters feel the need to ostentatiously proclaim their support for our armed forces when practically every middle & senior ranking military officer I’ve met over the past 2 years thinks
#Brexit
is a complete disaster and undermines our security.
Completely agree. I cannot think of an unrecognised country more deserving of full international acceptance than
#Somaliland
. Even the
#AfricanUnion
has acknowledged the special circumstances of its case. It just takes one or two countries to lead the way.
@Femi_Sorry
Absolutely. By cutting ourselves out from the EMA, many firms will put the UK behind the EU and US for drug approvals. This means British patients, who once benefitted from innovative new treatments, are likely to lose out. This is an especially serious worry for rare diseases.
Said it before, will say it again. There’s not a single major conflict/dispute in SE Europe that
#Russia
has any interest in seeing resolved:
#Bosnia
,
#Macedonia
name issue,
#Kosovo
-
#Serbia
,
#Cyprus
Problem. Moscow needs regional instability to have relevance.
#Balkans
Following the signing of their Memorandum of Understanding, there is a lot of discussion about whether
#Ethiopia
has recognised - or is planning to recognise -
#Somaliland
. 1/14🧵
Finding it hard to convey just how depressing it is to be Brit working on
#EU
enlargement these days. As someone who has seen at first hand the enormous economic, political and social benefits of membership for so many countries,
#Brexit
simply defies all rational explanation.
Trump’s recognition of
#Morocco
’s ‘sovereignty’ over
#WesternSahara
is one of the most shameful acts of a shameful presidency. This is a colonial territory with a right to self-determination that was invaded and occupied. The ICJ ruled Morocco has no claim
@Be_Herrero
@DejanFpzg
Always wary of reading election results in this way. We had an election in 2017 that supposedly showed 80% supported Brexit by voting Labour & Conservatives. Elections and referendums should not be conflated. The bigger issue is that Spain is not actually permitting a referendum!
#Somaliland
has a strong case for recognition. 30 years after breaking from
#Somalia
it meets the criteria for statehood. Even the
#AfricanUnion
has said it’s a special case. And yet it remains wholly unrecognised, even by close partners. Why? My new video
@alexstubb
Absolutely. People still have no real idea about the extent and power of hybrid warfare. (
#Finland
’s
@HybridCoE
is doing amazing work on this.) But I’m sure Erdogan would have been told that the person who did it was against NATO membership. So, what is really going on here?
Truly fascinating background piece on Flora Sandes, ‘the only British woman to serve in uniform, in combat, as an enlisted soldier in World War One.’ However, she didn’t serve in the British Army. She fought for
#Serbia
#WWI
#Greece
#Balkans
So, finally, it is done and dusted.
#Greece
Parliament has just approved
#Macedonia
’s
#NATO
accession protocol. 153-140 votes. The name deal is now in force. Now for the Republic of
#NorthMacedonia
to inform
#UN
and other states of the change.
The conflict in
#NagornoKarabakh
is not getting nearly as much European (or even media) attention as it should. This is not a small skirmish. It’s a war between
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
that’s creating a humanitarian catastrophe. Must read by
@Tom_deWaal
Sorry, “I can’t go, we’ve friends coming round”, or “my dog’s got a birthday party”, just don’t cut it! If you are worried about leaving the
#EU
, you need to make your voice heard. Get out and march! Save the date. 20 October.
#Brexit
#PeoplesVote
Keep hearing that
#France
is right to block enlargement talks with
#Albania
#NorthMacedonia
as EU needs to reform. However, neither country will be ready to join before 2027. Surely enough time for EU reform? In the meantime, why can’t accession talks and reform run hand-in-hand?
Now preparing for
#Macedonia
Twitter timeline to go into meltdown. Seriously, the nationalists in both countries - and, of course, the diaspora armchair warriors - are about to go bonkers.
Joining the
#EU
may be a legalistic process. However, it operates within an intensely political framework. An independent
#Scotland
vying for membership would be treated completely differently from the Western
#Balkans
. My piece
@SCER_eu
TY
@KirstyS_Hughes
@LukeDCoffey
And what is your reaction to the statement from the Armenian Government categorically denying this report (a report that appears to have originated as disinformation in the Turkish press)? Perhaps worth clarifying this on your timeline.
@mrjamesob
More worryingly, this is deliberately designed to make rejoining extremely difficult and lengthy. EU membership requires harmonisation with all EU laws. This will mean thousands will need to be passed again. A process that will take years. This is about salting the ground!
Delighted that my book ‘Crisis and Conciliation: A Year of Rapprochement between
#Greece
and
#Turkey
’ has just come out in paperback
@ibtauris
. 1999 was such an amazing period of hope. Especially relevant given the tensions we’re seeing in the region now
@RoryStewartUK
How is it possibly undemocratic to say to people, “You voted to leave. We have spent 2 and a half years trying to give effect to your decision. Here is the best deal we’ve been able to achieve. You now understand the full consequences of accepting it. Are you happy to take it?”
@martinmckee
@Bentonra
@MichelBarnier
Unbelievable. “We are determined to leave the EU, with or without a deal, but now realise it is going to cause severe problems for us, so please can you make things easier for us, even though we have shown little regard for your interests and inconvenience.”
@KJkathryn
Thank you so much. I really didn’t want to do this. But I felt I had to. In all the talk of politics, people lost sight of the very human dimension of what has happened and how it has hurt so many people.
One year after
#Brexit
came into full force, its disastrous effects are now obvious. Even the meagre joy some Leavers got from baiting Remainers is fast disappearing with rising prices, falling standards, destroyed businesses, lost freedoms and mountains *more* bureaucracy.
No agreement on
#NorthMacedonia
#Albania
accession talks overnight, even though both had been promised a “clear and substantive decision” this month. Fair to say that
#EU
credibility in the Western
#Balkans
has been completely undermined this week.
If you don’t have a disabled child, you might not appreciate just how important it is for them to see disability on TV, in films, etc. It means everything, knowing they are different, to feel part of society. Supporting inclusion isn’t “woke”. It’s about being a decent person.
@piersmorgan
No. Listen to the whole call! It is actually incredibly nuanced. If you’re willing to climb down off your high horse, I think you will actually find yourself in full agreement with
@mrjamesob
. He again shows why he is one of the most intelligent commentators in the UK today.
@MacaesBruno
Because the UK’s response is the correct one and Germany’s isn’t. But foreign policy is a national competence, so I’m not sure what your point is? But just think how much better UK could have lobbied Germany to take a more robust response working with partners from inside the EU.
Excellent news.
@NATO
has formally invited
#NorthMacedonia
to join, subject to name agreement having been finalised. A major step forward for
#Balkans
stability and unity. All being well, it will become the 30th member.
#NATOSummit2018
Last week
@BBCNews
published a piece on
#Greece
’s ‘invisible minority’. Uproar ensued. Athens complained. BBC added Greek govt view that Slav Macedonians are not recognised as a ‘national minority’...thus confirming the premise of the piece. Nice own goal!
@PaulMurton61
@SadiqKhan
Interesting argument. So, is it the responsibility of those parents (and offspring) to pay taxes to fund the pension of some complete stranger?
In June 1991,
#Slovenia
declared independence from
#Yugoslavia
. Soon afterwards, it 'erased' tens of thousands of Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks, Albanians and Roma living in the country. The effects are still being felt today, 30 years later. My latest video
OK. Given up trying to understand what is happening with
#Brexit
. Well done Britain, you’ve finally made my day job working on
#Balkans
politics a welcome and restful diversion!
Held off commenting on the
#Serbia
#Switzerland
game the other night. But this piece crosses the line. Seriously
@POLITICOEurope
, what were you thinking publishing this inflammatory and borderline racist rubbish!? … The
#Balkans
doesn’t need this, not now.
This is a really important and welcome
#EU
statement. Turkish Cypriot hardliners are pushing the two states line claiming the TCs have pursued unification for 50 years. This is untrue. Those around Tatar have never worked for it. Recognition would just reward their intransigence.
#Turkiye
#Cyprus
#EastMed
: Actions to facilitate/assist in any way international recognition Turkish Cypriot secessionist entity severely damages efforts to create an environment conducive to resuming
#settlement
talks under the auspices of
@UN
👇
@MintSauceSarnie
@MarinaPurkiss
A) Hungary is undemocratic. The EU is trying to support Ukraine by tackling an authoritarian grifter. B) I’ve written considerably on Kosovo. The EU is the best hope for regional peace. C) VDL was chosen by member states, who remain the decision makers. These aren’t real reasons.
@RikeFranke
@MiKarnitschnig
Bit of a silly aggressive response. Not sure why you’d write a tweet in English with German text - and a photo at that. Just raising the point and asking for a quick summary on behalf of the large proportion of English speakers who unfortunately don’t speak German. But OK.
By the way, to all those Macedonian nationalists tempted to tell me (in sweary terms) that I have no idea about giving up my identity, I’m about to be stripped of my
#EU
citizenship. Frankly, I’d happily take a name change to keep the benefits of European integration.
This week, the
#EU
will decide whether to open membership talks with
#NorthMacedonia
&
#Albania
. There is a clear recommendation to do so from
@EU_Commission
. There are also overarching political and moral reasons to do so. A decision to reject them would be utterly indefensible.
One of the worst aspects of the social media era is how it rewards extreme partisanship. This has done so much harm to peace processes. Efforts to find sensible solutions are pushed aside as people engage in rejectionism to outbid each other for their chosen audience’s adulation.
@jcjumble
@fascinatorfun
Thank you so much. Yes, this is what I have found so hard about the past few days. It has really hurt a lot of families who have done everything to obey the lockdown.
Remember watching the outpouring of nationalism over
#Macedonia
in the 1990s. Today, MPs in
#Greece
have the opportunity to end a petty and overblown dispute that has done real harm to SE Europe. Skopje has done its bit. Now it’s time for Athens to finish the job.
Continuing tensions between
#Greece
and
#Turkey
in the
#EastMed
are a genuine source of worry. But what is it all about? My effort to explain the key legal and political issues at stake and how apparently agreed borders came to be so fiercely contested
Whatever one thinks of his domestic record,
@atsipras
leaves office with genuine respect on the international stage. His courage in securing the
#PrespaAgreement
with
#NorthMacedonia
has helped bring some much needed stability in the
#Balkans
and has improved
#Greece
’s standing.
Seriously!? After what he’s just done to your country? You pitch up to his event and even pose for a photo op. There’s being diplomatic. And then there’s being humiliated. Perhaps better to have made your polite excuses and given it a miss this year, eh?
This is an amazing and highly significant development given close ties between Athens and Moscow.
#Greece
to expel 2
#Russia
diplomats for interference in domestic and national security affairs. Clear warning not to abuse friendship. Extraordinary!
Going to Belgrade next week to speak at a conference on
#Brexit
and the
#Balkans
. Also meant to be briefing journalists on what is happening over here! (Anyone?)
Consider that fully. I’m going to
#Serbia
to talk about the effects they face from political instability in
#Britain
!
@mrjamesob
@SarahLudford
So, we’re being asked to unite as a nation by those who reject any idea of unity beyond our borders. This is just nationalism. What’s horrifying is that people who should know better are now asking us to accept this nationalism in the name of ‘coming together’. Sorry. Not me.
Beware the (populist) myth of a emerging populist
#EU
. European
#Liberals
had an excellent night. 109 seats. Up from 67 in last EP. A 67% increase. Centrist parties as a whole - EPP, S&D, ALDE&R and Greens - have 504 of 751 seats. Just 2.9% lower than last Parliament.
#EP2019
Fascinating discussion with a group of journalists in
#Serbia
this evening. One clearly supported
#Brexit
. I asked him why. “
#UK
punished us, so I want to see it suffer.” One of the most honest views of Brexit I’ve heard, in all sorts of ways.
Resolving the Macedonia name issue was amongst the most positive developments in the
#Balkans
in recent years. Only possible because of the promise of
#EU
membership talks for
#NorthMacedonia
. Utterly unforgivable for any EU member to renege on that clear understanding tomorrow.
Delighted to announce the publication of my new co-edited book (w/ Ioannis Armakolas)
@palmacpolitics
: ‘The Politics of Recognition and Engagement:
#EU
Member State Relations with
#Kosovo
’. Result of a major two and a half year project supported by
@kfosi
Sadly, however, there is no political cost to
#Greece
for intransigence over name issue. By rejecting a deal, Athens only faces further reputational damage. Meanwhile
#Macedonia
faces real damage to its further development.
#EU
needs to find a way to change this imbalance.
The name change was a monumental step taken primarily for the purpose of
#EU
integration. The EU’s credibility now rests on (
#France
#Netherlands
) doing the honourable thing and opening accession talks with
#NorthMacedonia
. My comments
@WSJ
Using Hungarian paprika to spice my fish soup at a restaurant in a Slovak village on the banks of the
#Danube
in
#Serbia
. This is why I love
#Vojvodina
:-)
@WarrenWhyteUK
@NicholasTyrone
Yes, let’s all pretend Brexit hasn’t created an almighty problem that is steadily sinking the UK economy! Brexiters broke it, but won’t fix it. So what is everyone supposed to do? Accept this mistake unquestioningly to quietly let you Leavers off the hook for your huge error?
Trump’s decision to recognise
#Morocco
’s sovereignty over
#WesternSahara
has been widely condemned internationally. Even senior
@GOP
figures have accused him of cynically trading away the rights of the Sahrawis. But can, and will,
@JoeBiden
reverse it?
Excellent news, if true, that Athens and Skopje have settled on Republic of Northern Macedonia. But the name is not the real problem. The adjective is. Are the people Northern Macedonians? Is their language Northern Macedonian? Look forward to seeing how this has been resolved.