Jake O
@JO_wintermute
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Trader @wintermute_t | OTC Crypto | Vol & Derivatives. Keynesian beauty contest participant & amateur Crossfit athlete. Views are my own.
Joined August 2022
Shared thoughts with @DecryptMedia regarding tariff moves... The market's declining sensitivity to trade rhetoric suggests that this narrative is losing its influence as a key driver. Still believe the only escalation worth watching is with China -- given how integral the supply chain is to stonk market leaders.
Why Bitcoin Is Less Likely to Be Spooked by Trump Trade Tactics: Analysts ►
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#ETH realizing 12-month highs continues to feed into implied whilst #BTC gets pressured by overwriting. This creates dislocations in the relative surface -- something that's become more evident/persistent since IBIT options launched. 2025 will be the year of micro-structure changes and expect more of these quirks as the market matures.
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Bruhhhhh
JUST IN - Trump rules out deporting Prince Harry: ‘He’s got enough problems with his wife’ - NYP
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RT @JSeyff: Sticking to my call/view that Litecoin will be the next digital asset to be approved by the SEC for a spot ETF wrapper 👀
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Short Turtle futures🐢
I will be signing an Executive Order next week ending the ridiculous Biden push for Paper Straws, which don’t work. BACK TO PLASTIC! Donald Trump Truth Social Post 10:12 AM EST 02/07/25
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Significant jump in inflation expectations to round off the week 😅
*MICHIGAN PRELIM FEB. CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS TO 67.8; EST 71.8 *MICHIGAN YEAR-AHEAD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE TO 4.3% VS 3.3%
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RT @mattomattik: aftter liquidiation it's always 3-7 day to stabilize, for btc example day 1 : empty orderbook day 2 : verify new pricing…
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Live & direct 🕺
Greeks Live x Jake From Wintermute
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Options are insurance products, and in Crypto - tend to be mispriced around events. Similar to Trump's Bitcoin2024 speech, 5v+ skew into the inauguration offered cheap protection into an event with one-sided positioning. Following Monday's move, starting to see these structures being monetised in #BTC and at some point -- expect this premium to feed back into spot.
Whilst CT is frothing on how bullish $TRUMP is ahead of the inauguration, expectations have risen to a point where delivering upside surprises could prove difficult. Markets move on relatives, not absolutes. The bar is now incredibly high for the administration to force further repricing -- especially in the short term. Not saying it's impossible, but I do think owning some protection, especially if carrying long deltas, makes sense.
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Let's try, in order; The Verge The Surge The Purge The Urge. Ultrasound M0ney
The ETH supply is about to cross the level it was at during "The Merge". If your money supply chart looks like this you are NGMI.
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CB discount / premium does not necessarily mean ETF flow -- especially intraday. Most issuers hit LPs around 90 minutes before the close and these are traded vs 3-4pm EST T(V)WAP benchmarks or 4pm spot fixing. Definitely something driving the CB spread but rarely direct ETF flows.
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Add the fact that most traders either i) missed the initial weekend drop or ii) got hit hard on the move puts market psychology in a strange spot. FOMO + News saturation = new regime
Prediction: the market will get so many headlines in the next few weeks / months / years that news trading vol will roll off of a cliff.
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