Josh Linville
@JLinvilleFert
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Vice President of Fertilizer @StoneX_Official, 20+ yrs experience in US/International Fertilizer Markets, All tweets are my own, RT≠Endorsements.
Kansas City, MO
Joined June 2019
India has shocked the global #urea world by cutting their purchase in half, down from 724KMT to a now 340KMT. World is left scrambling and shows why it is so important to wait for the final results before building a market POV.
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Chinese gov't has effectively banned #phosphate exports thru June '22. China accounts for almost 30% of world trade. This is bad for global phosphate prices and even worse for those highly dependent on those tons (i.e. Australia). Watch for #urea similar action. #blackswanevent.
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Homecoming Ag related rivalry burns are the best burns!!!
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The days of "just being a farmer" are over. Most farming operations use more cash flow, take more risk, and put in more work than most companies around the world. You are the CEO of your operation. Pays to have that mindset.
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Again, I am no brilliant military strategist but. we finally decided to shoot down the balloon after it drifted over the entirety of the U.S.? If it was transmitting info, wouldn't it had already done so? . Does this whole thing just seem odd to anyone else?.
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I'm going to close the week with this statement:. When you go to buy your #fertilizer, BE NICE TO YOUR SUPPLIER/RETAILER/COOP. They DID NOT do this. They would rather sell you cheap inputs. You can be pissed but do not misdirect it at the group trying to help you.
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Well, after a lots of chats with the Mrs, we are going to try and buy that 80 acres I mentioned a couple weeks back. My aunt also wants it so have to outbid her. Dad is willing to help to get me started. Honestly scared to death but would love to put my advice into practice.
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OK, I want a post do-over:. City folk: "farmers are just a bunch of dumb hicks living in flyover states that have no idea what technology is.". Farmers planting the 2023 crop: "this is my view every day. ". There, that feels better!
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In Kansas City, the current temp is -3F and with the wind, the wind chill is -27F. News agencies continue to warn about the dangerous conditions of this artic blast. Schools and businesses are shutting as a result. Northern Plains and Canadian farmers call this a Thursday.
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This is where solar should be placed. Every parking lot. Every city building. Every ground between the roads on the interstate systems. NOT ON FARMGROUND.
The parking lot at Disneyland #Paris just went #solar. With over 67,000 #solarpanels it will be one of the largest solar canopys in Europe. Shouldn't every parking lot get a #solarpower update? We have the solutions. Implement them. #ActOnClimate. #climateAction #climate #energy
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A new #fertilizer day, a new announcement of another Europe N plant stopping production. a new $50 - $80 jump in #urea price ideas.
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This is the closest I will ever get to a million dollars!!!
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Piece of ground sold local at $8,600/acre. Figure 225/acre yield for corn:. Dec '25 corn - $4.37.225 x $4.37 = $983/acre. If there were NO input/harvest/interest/etc. costs and continuous corn, it would still take 9 years to break even. I do not understand farm purchase math.
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I keep trying to get away and it keeps pulling me back!. NOLA #urea physical is puking this morning with Feb barges trading as low as $620. Urea is now the cheapest form of N in North America. Urea - $0.67/lb of actual N right now.UAN - $0.90.NH3 - $0.73.
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I know car manufacturers are looking for ways to increase profits. I have an idea. I'll happily pay more to have the auto stop/start removed.
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Remember that your biggest danger is not low grain values, high fertilizer values, land prices, etc. Your biggest danger sits 6" above your shoulders. Do not let emotion drive your decision making for your farm. If you are like me, you have never made a good decision angry. .
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I want to say thank you to everyone that follows me. While at dinner with a great group of co-workers in NOLA, my count topped 20,000. Not big for most, but for me I think it is pretty cool!. Thank you and we will keep sharing the fert news!.
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If we could stop having once in a lifetime events happening every week, that would be stupendous. .
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Regardless of what some might think, farming economics are not strong right now. Land prices - high.Interest rates - high.Chemical/seed - moderate to high.Equipment cost - high (at least used is coming down).Fertilizer - moderate to high. Grain prices - not good.
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Dad brag moment. The oldest made Eagle Scout this evening. He started late into the program. He had to work on progressing while living in MO/KS/FL. He had to work on progressing while we were moving to Australia. and then not. Went thru a lot to get here. Big accomplishment!
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I realized that I hit 10k followers today and honestly, it made me a bit sad. Only because I've been followed due to my almost daily bad news on fertilizer markets. Hoping to hit the 20k mark more due to good news. Thanks everyone for the follow. I really appreciate it.
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Some teenagers ask for video games, sports equipment, etc. Not mine. Mine asks for bagpipes. and gets them!!!!
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I just saw a video where a Switzerland based company is researching putting solar panels between their railroad tracks. Why are these methods not used rather than taking productive farmland?. Use railways. Use sides of interstate systems. Use warehouse buildings/parking lots.
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Before signing off for Christmas, I wanted to take a moment to say thank you. Last year at this time, I had less than 2K followers. Today, I reached 15K. A lot for me. I hope the fertilizer information, which hasn't always been pleasant, has helped people in their decision.
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It's that special time of year where I hate gas pump prompts. No i do not want to sign up for rewards. No i do not want a car wash. It is 15 degrees. I want to fill my tank and not freeze to death. There should be a temp where all the prompts disappear.
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So, we have a suspected spy balloon going over the north U.S and our strategic decision is to let it. I cannot claim to be a brilliant military strategist. but that doesn't seem like the right answer.
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Oh, I don't know, maybe let farmers around the world do what they do best. Stop allowing a person in a city who has never raised a crop to dictate farming practices. Stop allowing solar fields to gobble up prime farmland. Farmers do pretty well when allowed to do so.
Yes, eating bugs sounds kind of gross. But do you have a better idea for feeding 10 billion people? via @opinion.
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I'm laying on the couch thinking about what tomorrow brings. - Dec '22 corn almost $6.25. - Might lose Russian NPK exports.- Might lose Russian nat gas to europe.- Might continue to lose Chinese exports due to "sympathy". Fuck. .
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So for global nitrogen:. - Europe production low due to high nat gas price.- China stopped exports.- Russia stopping exports.- India well behind normal inventory levels.- A LOT of demand coming Q1. sigh. .
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If you go to your supplies/retailer for #fertilizer needs and they say they are struggling to get a price. THEY ARE NOT LYING TO YOU. These markets are severely disrupted right now. They are doing all they can. This is turning into the nightmare scenario we always feared. .
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News is being shared that the Chinese government has banned fresh shipments of #fertilizer to export ports. No shipment to ports, no way to export fertilizer from China. China is a MAJOR producer of fert and a MAJOR exporter. This is bullish, in case that wasn't clear. .
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If you need me this summer, I will be drunk. very drunk!!!!
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"Dear #corn market. If you want your acres in 2023, you need to get to work because #nitrogen #fertilizer is over here losing its shit".
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#fertilizer view to Trump threatening 25% tariff's against Canada. Massive for #potash. 87% of our 15M import tons last year came from Canada. U.S. imports about 400K #urea (send 550K to Canada).Import 500K tons #UAN .Import 1.2M tons #nh3 . Um Houston, we may have a problem.
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I haven't mentioned this but I have been building an inground pool this year. Trying to save some money by doing it myself. Finally got power to the pump and lights. All, PLEASE look at your blueprints/plans from different angles because you might miss something!!!
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Some days unexpectedly knock you on your butt. Was finishing the PP for the Dec farmer newsletter when I got the call that my grandmother passed away in her sleep last night. Not the news I was expecting to hear. Life is short. Enjoy the time you have.
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Me "I can't believe farmers would start planting just because their neighbor does". Also me "Damn, is someone mowing? Should I go mow?". It's real everyone. It really is.
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If you lock up/apply your fertilizer, consider selling grain against it. While today sucks, if you buy your fert and corn price goes to hell. that will be worse.
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$34,800/acre. sold. If this farm went continuous corn, yielded 250 bushels/acre every year, sold every bushel at $5 and HAD NO EXPENSES. It would still take nearly 30 years to break even.
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Closing in on #fertilizer price records:. NOLA #urea all-time high - $835.Current urea - $710. NOLA #UAN all-time high - $556.Current UAN - $500 - $535. NOLA #DAP all-time high - $1,100.Current DAP - $695. Midwest #NH3 all-time high - $1,150.Current Midwest NH3 - $900 - $1,000.
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Buckle up because it is soap box time:. With NOLA #urea tumbling in the last week or two, I am seeing a lot of comments like "I'm going to show my retailer now". That comment makes it seem as though they knew what was coming. I'll cut to the chase, THEY HAD NO IDEA.
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Barge lines are struggling to ship due to low waters. Railway workers have rejected an agreement, raising the possibility of a strike again. Not nearly enough trucks to transport everything. If you are the praying type, now is the time. This could get really bad.
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And yet my boys cannot hit a toilet from 6 inches away. .
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#agtwitter, the great NOLA #urea sell off continues with 2nd half June shipment trading at $475. The last time we saw these values was August '21. We topped at $935 March '22. That is one hell of a cycle.
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#Nitrogen #fertilizer prices down again today as a lack of demand and continued world production push the global S&D even more out of line. World is looking for demand that refuses to step forward which is keeping the pressure on.
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Dear literally ever hotel in the world. It makes sense to have a readily available plug in on the night stand next to the bed. It is a pain to pull the night stand away to access the nasty wall plugin. Sincerely. Literally anyone who has a cell phone and has stayed in a hotel.
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If we had to get back to "normal" #corn/#fertilizer ratio values with corn price doing all the work, that would result in:. Urea @ $700 NOLA = $12.72 corn price.UAN @ $500 NOLA = $14.29 corn price.DAP @ $685 NOLA = $8.06 corn price.Potash @ $680 NOLA = $11.33 corn price
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If you feel like #fertilizer is costing more of your operation than years past, that's because it is. Updated #corn/fertilizer ratio charts. Normally costs 55-60 bushels for 1 ton #urea - now costs 135. Normally costs 60 bushels for 1 ton #potash - now 130. Sorry.
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USDA committed to giving $500M to help lower fertilizer values. - Nitrogen is high due to global inventory tightness. - Phosphate is extremely high due to global inventory tightness. - Potash is very well supplied/priced. Guess which one just got an $80M grant.
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Sept 1, 2022 .Dec '22 corn - $6.58.NOLA urea - $695.Ratio - 106 bushels per ton of urea. Today.Dec '22 corn - $6.28.NOLA Urea - $500.Ratio - 79 bushels per ton of urea. Spending 27 less bushels today for the same urea ton. Higher grain prices is not always the best value.
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I will never understand people who stand right next to the luggage turnstil. People, back up 4 - 6 feet. I guarantee you will have time to step up and grab your bag. It isn't going that fast. Thoughts from a tired/cranky josh.
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And now a physical NOLA #urea bare has traded at $575!!!. Physical barges were $785 at Christmas!!!. Rest of the world not showing anything close to these declines. yet. If they hold, this will be a short term dip. If they falter. watch out.
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Many of you may not know this about me, but I can see the future sometimes. My current prediction is that by this time next week, Twitter will be full of "I can't believe we planted that many corn acres that quickly" comments!!!.
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If you apply #nh3, this may be the best advice you will ever hear:. DO NOT LET THAT TRACTOR SEAT GET COLD THIS FALL. NH3 is stupidly cheap vs urea & UAN. It will not stay that way forever (demand will correct the difference). DO NOT miss a chance to get it applied.
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Wanted to spread a little #fertilizer cheer before the holidays. NOLA values have dropped decently from their March/April '22 high's:. Urea - down 66%.UAN - down 62%.NH3 - down 57% (using spring prepay).DAP - down 42.5%.Potash - down 61%. Corn is also down, but not as much.
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This is the worst part of the great Ag reset. Grain prices have fallen but most inputs are still holding their value high. This is the max squeeze on the farmer. As we go ahead, inputs should start to correct and put farmers in a better position. at least that is the hope.
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NOLA #urea has been a rollercoaster:. Nov 12 '21 - Feb phys barge $833.Jan 26 '22 - Feb phys barge $485. That is a $350 drop overall and a 42% drop from the high. We have also seen over $500 price volatility during that time (up/down).
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Physical NOLA #urea dropping to $500 today. Within $100 of the summer low and well below the almost $700 it was in September. That puts current UAN values at over 20 cents/lb of actual N premium to urea. switching coming?.
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So I do not farm, but my family still does. They sent me this pic that their seed guy took with his drone. Looks a lot more fun than sitting behind a desk!!!!
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In a new twist, European nat gas values have dropped significantly. At today's values, most N #fertilizer producers are profitable. However, they need nat gas to stay here/lower AND global markets to hold. Regardless, this is a bearish signal and a good start to 2022!!.
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Physical #urea buyers have stepped out of the way of sellers once again today which has prices dropping. February physical Nola barge has broken $600 to trade at $595. What. a. ride. .
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Ag is in a bad way. Input's are rising. Grain is falling. Farmers are going to be angry with their retailer/elevator. Retailer/elevator will be frustrated by lack of direction from the farmer. Folks, have MORE conversations about what you will need. Getting tough.
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For Halloween, I'm dressing up as the scariest thing I can come up with. I will be $900 urea.
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Last one today I swear. Corn farmers to the USDA: we are only going to plant a little over 91M acres.
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Hearing that the April #NH3 Tampa price has been agreed upon at over $1,600. February price was just over $1,100 and March didn't have an agreed upon value. If you need me, I'll be over here pondering where in the hell we are right now.
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Why are we watching Russia closely from a #fertilizer POV? From a world export perspective, they represent:. Urea - 14%.UAN - 27%.DAP/MAP - 11%. They and Belarus represent around 1/3rd of global potash operating capacity. Likely they will NOT get shut off but we need to watch.
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@vishy_g @narne_kumar06 Not holding my breath that India is self sufficient. Yes, import needs are lowered on new domestic production but not self sufficient based on our numbers.
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Come on guys. If you are trying to bait/feed the deer, there are better and cheaper ways of going about it.
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UP rail situation:. Sounds like the UP is backed up on shipments. As a result, they are restricting "private car" shipments (i.e. not UP equipment) by almost 20%. We were already struggling with fert logistics coming into spring. This doesn't help at all. #blackswan
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One would think that at 42 years old, I would know better than to tie one on until 1:30 AM on a Tuesday, yet here we are. Yet, I would not have changed a thing! Had a blast last night!.
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All, we are less than 2 weeks from March. I IMPLORE you to have a convo w/ your #fertilizer supplier and discuss what you need this spring. We as an industry have cried wolf before. This year is different. I've not seen it like this in the past. Honestly, I'm nervous.
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It's been a long day/week/month/year. I'm going to close the week with this:. Make the #fertilizer decisions that are right for your operation. What works for your neighbor may not work for you. Remove emotion and make the best business decision for YOUR farm.
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I've seen several "if I hit so many followers I'll XYZ". I'm just under 9K which had me thinking about what to do if I hit 10K. My natural thought was to say "if I hit 10K followers, I'll write positive things about fertilizer all week". Can't do that and lie to everyone. .
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Nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers continue to experience downward pressure as demand remains mostly non existent. However, we are starting to question for how much longer. Year end/beginning prepay dollars and Q1 global demand are about to step up. Floor may be near.
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Those of you that farmed thru the tough years, what advice would you give to younger farmers witnessing this for the first time? . What did you do different. What got you thru it?.What would you do different?. Please re-tweet. I really want to see a broad number of responses.
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@PKanning You remember the movie Robin Hood Men in Tights when he asks for the bad news told in a good way? That's my life. .
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All, there are so many insane things happening in the #fertilizer space that it is impossible to call going forward. Best thing you can do is look at your operation, run the numbers and make the best decision for YOU. Not your neighbor. Not your supplier. YOU.
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India had to extend the window to receive phosphate offers for another week due to NO offers. Ethiopia did the same for their urea purchase tender. I do not care where you farm, this affects every farmer on earth. 👏Fertilizer👏is👏tight👏.
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I say it now and I will continue to say this: you need to work WITH your retailer. You need to stop seeing them as an adversary. If they knew exactly what was going to happen in markets, they wouldn't be a retailer. .
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India was trying to buy 1.5M tons of urea on their current purchase tender. By all accounts, it looks like they are going to fail to secure 250K tons. This will force a fresh tender announcement that will see them competing with a lot of world buyers in Q1. here it comes.
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"but the price of fertilizer may go lower". I hear this a lot about holding off on spring purchases. Fert prices are still high, but so is corn. Check out the updated ratio charts. Lot of much improved value out there. if both sides are locked up. Be talking to your retailer
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If you do not think global factors affect your farm, think again. EU cost of production:. - urea over $1,500 USD.- UAN nearly $1,000 USD.- NH3 over $2,100 USD. World price points are moving higher as a result. New production curtailments feared going forward.
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I had planned some witty comment about fertilizer markets today. However, I started watching the videos from Afghanistan. I've lose any humor I might have had. If you or someone you know served there, thank them and tell at least I thank them for what they did.
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City folks: oh, those redneck country folk want a fight? We will give them a fight. Please keep this video in mind when those comments are made!!!! This is the stupid shit we do for fun!!!.
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Everyone in the #fertilizer world, high prices are not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is countries shutting down normal shipping patterns. That creates panic/emotion. That creates even higher prices as the market freaks out. That said, prices look firm.
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I've said this before but it is now April and needs to be repeated. BE CAREFUL THIS SPRING. Do not overdue it. That last field can wait. Don't work thru the night and fall asleep at the wheel. Your friends & family would rather you be alive and healthy.
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I'm seeing a lot of people talking about wanting to buy their fall '22/spring '23 fertilizer already. Remember, there are 8 months until November and a full year until next March. A LOT can happen between now and then. Make those decisions logically, not emotionally.
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U.S. fertilizer companies - "We will not do business with Russian companies after the Ukraine invasion.". U.S. fertilizer companies seeing a chance to make money on Russian UAN imports:
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Just in case you thought the Chinese #fertilizer story was a ploy. I've said it before and I'll continue saying it: this isn't like 2008. it's scarier.
More Than Half Of China's Provinces Are Now 'Rationing' Electricity, Governors Demand More Coal Imports To Resolve Crisis
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