IsaacWxObserver
@IsaacWxObserver
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Weather observer in Rockland county. I focus on weather in and around NYC
Chestnut Ridge, NY
Joined March 2018
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In the coming weeks cold will consolidate near the pole and winter will begin its slow expansion in the northern hemisphere.
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I don't like posting long range snow maps but GEFS Control literally says screw DC - NYC. Its hilarious.
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Summer is over in the east. Florida doesn't count.
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No heat in sight for the northeast on the latest GEFS.
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Some serious cold being advertised for the US during the coldest time of the year! Buckle Up!
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Looking increasingly likely that we will end October or start November with an arctic blast.
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I spy dew points in the 40s next week in the northeast! A brief taste if fall?
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Oh wow! HRRR all in a powerful line of snow squalls Sunday afternoon.
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EPS is trending a lot more favorable for snow for DC-Boston.
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The Sunday night storm is looking more interesting.
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12 hours from the storm and this is the one run trend...
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Early December is looking much better. Not much of a warmup at all.
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I want what the HRRR is having. 3+ inch per hours rates!?
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We have a strong signal for a potential snowstorm for next week Tuesday. Still far out, but lots of arctic air this time around.
A step in the right direction today for early next weeks storm threat. Trough is not amplifying too early (pic 1) which allows a nice cold frontal boundary for storm to ride along (pic 2)...im thinking this trends more west towards I-95 however😟.. well see, its far off
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The east coast looking to avoid the warmth next week.
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Has anyone tried asking Russia to share some of its cold?
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For 300 hours out, such a mean is crazy. All 3 ensembles show this. Confidence is high. This also fits well with strong El Nino's
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This feels very reminiscent of the past few winters. Cold always staying mostly west.
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Long range models need to be removed from the public at this point.
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Eps with a significant shift south! I want to see it hold in subsequent runs.
Eps snowfall probability map is usually a good way to see how much of a chance you have at getting snow. The coast should keep expectations at 0.
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March 4 is the best chance that I-95 will probably get.
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The pattern after the 13th looks favorable for cold and snow in the east.
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Looking increasingly likely that snowfall will finally occur in the NYC metro next weekend!
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August might end really chilly. Perhaps our first real fall airmass.
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Seeing some people this morning ready to cancel winter because one run of models got worse in the long range delaying cold a bit.
Cold is not constantly getting delayed. Here is the next 7 days temperature anomaly.
Also just 2 weeks ago everyone agreed December is will torch.
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An arctic airmass will swing through the region next week.Looks like pacific air will take over soon after.
Been forever since we had a long duration cold weather pattern.
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Next week looking like another round of stunning weather.
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Remember when snow weenies were a problem hyping every pattern to be cold and snowy a few years ago? Now we have the opposite. People are looking at this and being negative...
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While the storm for Monday-Tuesday trended worse the last few days the Thursday-Friday storm is trending colder and snowier.
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0z HRRR dropping the goods. HRRR has done quite well recently.
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Remember that Arctic shot for Thanksgiving? Gone. Cold is now delayed till next week after it initially dumps west then moves east.
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Cooler pattern to set in. Finally. The summers heat will finally relent.
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When is the last time we had such widespread below normal temperatures in the lower 48?
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That big warmup talked about in early February might just last a couple days before cold returns.
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For July these dewpoints are not easy to come by. Enjoy them.
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People have given up on Tuesday because it wont be a major snowstorm? Still looks good for a few inches...
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Winter forecast for NYC for 2023 - 2024:
Colder and snowier then the winter of 2022-2023.
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HRRR very bullish on snow squalls in the NYC metro area on Tuesday.
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From summer to winter across the Northern Hemisphere!
Watch as winter begins, grows and expends from August 15 to December 15 using all hour 0 analysis from the GFS!
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Euro now on board with dew points dropping into the 50s on Sunday!
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Winter is coming at the end of the week with full force.
Then it quickly leaves in time to torch the start of the new year.
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Ensembles coming in with a nice pool of cooler air into the northern US. To be seen how far south it gets.
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Its only a matter of time, right? Best looking ensemble run for snowfall in a long time.
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GEFS showing consistent cold in the east after the pattern change
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Its going to be AMAZING tomorrow.
Sources are saying that Tuesday will be a top-tier weather day in NYC
Source: Me
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2K
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Summer is not to eager to get going in the east. The west will get a hot start to June.
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I'm seeing lots of pessimism and things like "Winters are no longer the same" takes out there.
I cant imagine what the rhetoric would have been like in the 70s through the 80s.
In blue you have all winters with 30+ inches of snow in NYC. 1970-2000 vs 2000-2023.
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GEPS is now on board for this threat as well. Leaving only GEFS to show nothing. GEFS bias being progressive/flat makes this threat looking quite legit right now.
Still a while to go and we still have to wait for the Friday night storm to pass.
We have a strong signal for a potential snowstorm for next week Tuesday. Still far out, but lots of arctic air this time around.
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Can't wait for winter and scenes like this. Summer can't leave fast enough.
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GFS with a real interesting 0z run. This reminds me that its been quite a while since we had a system end as snow for the coast.
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Its been a long 3+ weeks of seeing the northeast in the red, but we finally get to see some blue in the northeast!
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The arctic blast for Thanksgiving is mostly gone on the GFS and CMC.
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No real heat in the northeast going into the final third of August.
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First half of December looking to be on the cooler side.
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👀
Ensembles coming in with a nice pool of cooler air into the northern US. To be seen how far south it gets.
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18z hour fantasy GFS run delivers again. Here is some eye candy. Would be one of the coldest snowstorms ever. 10 days to watch this turn into a cutter.
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Eagerly awaiting the birth of winter 2024-2025. Going to be a few weeks until the signs begin to show.
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When is the last time we had a classic clipper like this?
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Models seem pretty locked in on the area of the heaviest snow. Coastal areas still in question if they can cash in.
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Weeklies look amazing for December!
Early December is looking much better. Not much of a warmup at all.
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The heat this week in the northeast is looking more like a temporary thing rather then a full scale pattern change with the pattern reverting to its previous state next week.
This could be our first real fall like airmass!
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Looks like happy hour GFS has finally given us another fantasy winter wonderland!
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Rain snow line crashing back south! Cold is winning tonight!
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This is the time period to watch. Still a long way to go though so for now we just watch.
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I haven't seen these kind of snow rates since February 1, 2021
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Get ready for next week! Absolutely perfect summer weather is on its way.
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A powerful blast of cold air should work its way into the eastern US at the end of next week! This should kickstart frost/freeze season for many!
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Im so excited for this! Dew points touching 40s in spots! The cooler nights this cool blast will bring will feel great!
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