Mr. Ahamed
@Ipica34
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পিপীলিকার পাখা গজায় মরিবার তরে,Bengal Politics
West Bengal, India
Joined September 2021
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My Projections for West Bengal :
TMC : 28
BJP : 09
INC+: 05
There are 11 Close seats according to my Opinion.
TMC Leading in 5.
BJP Leading in 5.
INC Leading in 1.
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মমতাকে আজ পর্যন্ত ভোট দিইনি তাও একটা জিনিসের প্রশংসা করতেই হয় : লক্ষ্মীর ভান্ডার।
এসিতে বসে ওটা ভিক্ষা বলা যায় কিন্তু গ্রামে থাকি তো, প্রান্তিক মানুষের কাছে তার কি যে মূল্য তা বোঝানো মুশকিল।
এই সব মানুষের আশীর্বাদ মমতা পাবে।
আমার মতে অনেক স্কীম না চালিয়ে এটাই জোর দেওয়া উচিত।
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Let me intoduce you to the Nazi Capital of West Bengal :
Siliguri City+Suburbs(3 ACs)
BJP : 4,24,733
TMC : 2,02,524
BJP lead of 2,22,209!!
BJP leading in 46 out of 47 wards in Siliguri City.
TMC gets lead from the sole Muslim Ward No. 6.
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Either the Media are stupid or deliberately lying.
Its a wave election for TMC in ground.
Mamta Banerjee is highly popular and Anti Incumbency is bullshit.
Its the কটূ সত্য I was talking about. Never revealed it as I am Anti TMC but saying that at last moment just so you know
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Final Score comes to
30-8-4
LandSlide Likely!!
I wont give any Exit Poll.
My previous seat wise prediction still holds.
Just changing the ratings of 6 seats including Overall winner in just 2 seats.
Note:- Close does not necessarily mean Margin.
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#KeyUpdate
BJP has lost deposit in Murshidabad Lok Sabha as Md. Salim has swung some BJP voters towards him.
BJP's fortress Murshidabad Segment has fallen.
Assembly wise,Murshidabad District heading towards 22-0-0 in favour of Left-INC combo.
Absolute Domination!!
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My first prediction starts with Baharampur-my own Lok Sabha.
Adhir Choudhury set to reelected by landslide.
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Mamta Banerjee can campaign in Malda for 3 months yet if Rahul Gandhi campaigns for just 1 day then Malda will go for INC.
Malda Muslims are extremely polarised towards INC.
Hindus towards BJP.
TMC polled lowest in Malda South in 2019 & it will again be the case in 2024.
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Okay, forgot one of my Prediction on Margins across West Bengal :
Abhisekh Banerjee will get the highest margin from West Bengal (more than even Modi).
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If things go as it is, 2026 West Bengal might not get an LOP.
Despite my crying & all, Urban Voters voted BJP because of Modi as its LS election.
In 2026, a lot will flip to TMC.
Also, the real wave of Laxmir Bhandar will hit then more strongly.
TMC has done that in 2021 too.
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Congratulations to Bolpur & Birbhum BJP for running the worst BJP campaigns in whole state
-Pretty sure, they were working to put that 5 cr. campaign fund in own pocket
-Work done successfully✅️
-Overall 11-0 loading for TMC.
-In 2 Segments(Murarai & Hasan), BJP will come 3rd
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TMC is breaking BJP like crazy in Murshidabad & Malda.
Most of BJP workers/local level are demoralised,hence, they are joining TMC to be on safe side.
But this does not mean BJP will not get votes!
Ideology trumps everything for these voters.
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Win or Lose,
The first thing Amrita Roy will do after election is join TMC.
She & her family basically stays in Kolkata & visits Krishnanagar on festivals. Most of the people incharge of her property are part of TMC Ecosystem(even close to Mahua Camp).
She is too close to TMC.
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My booth No.___ :
Kandi AC, Baharampur LS
75% Muslim, 25% Hindu SC Voters.
Only INC & TMC Polling Agent present.
No BJP Agent.
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Murshidabad Projection :
CPIM GAIN from TMC.
Only Question : 3 lakh Margin possible?
Note for trolls : Save this one for 4th June. If I am wrong, I will publicly apologise and quit Twitter.
Murshidabad Prediction Today.
Get ready for some epic meltdown.
Btw BJP should give Jangipur candidate today, so that I can give my numbers.
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Phase-5 in WB was 4 TMC-3 BJP in 2019.
I have pretty controversial prediction here : 7-0 for TMC.😭
Many in SM consider Arambagh & Bongaon as sureshot BJP seats.
Opinions welcome.
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I badly want him to say such language specially in Bengal.
देश के पीएम की भाषा देखिए लगता है पता चल चुका है कि गाड़ी हाथ से निकल चुकी है।
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Baranagar AC-38 Wards.
Municipal Results :
TMC : 1,07,980
CPM+ : 38,475
BJP : 9,966
CPM was ahead of BJP in all wards.
Sajal Ghosh will 100% come 3rd but he will split Opposition Vote.
Tanmoy defeated Sitting Cabinet Minister in 2016. Only he can win.
VOTE FOR TANMOY!!
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As per the reports, INC-CPM alliance in West Bengal will not accomodate ISF.
LF-30
INC-12
Hence, I am moving Jadavpur Lok Sabha seat from Doubtful column to TMC.
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Tapas/BJP : 4,135
Sudip/TMC : 1,354
Pradip/INC : 553
This is not Mina Devi's Ward 22 but Santosh Pathak(lone INC Councillor)'s Ward 45 results!!
Non Bengalis in West Bengal are one of the most brainwashed & fascist ones....(till now the best ward result of BJP in Kolkata in 24)
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One thing I love about TMC & Mamta is that they have made the "Bhodrolok" Class completely irrelevant in West Bengal.
They cant even make their preferred party(i.e. BJP) win in seats like Rasbehari or Bidhannagar.
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Phase 6 in West Bengal is the most important phase in whole West Bengal.
This pretty much determines whether BJP crosses double digit or not.
Again, a risky prediction by me- All seats except Ghatal change parties.
2019 Result: My Prediction:
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TMC is now using BJP's own tricks against them. Rekha Patra is now getting apt treatment from TMC's Hindu Women supporters.
Always remember Newton's 3rd Law is a reality.
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Ironic, that Phase 3 Landscape in West Bengal is Muslim-dominated yet, its going to be worst phase for TMC in terms of Vote-share.
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Congratulations to Md Selim on getting nominated as CPIM(+INC) candidate for Murshidabad.
Official Victory is now matter of time!!
Hope you represent the people of Murshidabad well in Parliament.
আসন্ন লোকসভা নির্বাচনে বামফ্রন্টের তৃতীয় দফার প্রার্থীরা।
#Vote4Left
#GeneralElection2024
#BengalNeedsLeft
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Dont usually write about other than WB but UP voters are so intelligent man!
-Defeated BJP🔥
-Wiped out any chance for BSP(BJP's Dalla) by making SP-BJP binary🔥🔥
-Also brought viable replacement of Dalit Face-
@BhimArmyChief
🔥🔥🔥
Beautiful way to end
@Mayawati
career.
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Just a reminder :
1)Counting Kol South will start from Ward 66,60,75 booths, Mala Roy will have a humongous lead & Saira might be 2nd initially.
2)In Jhargram, Asansol & Bankura, 1st round is heavily BJP.
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100%....I am not changing a single prediction.
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As for Murshidabad, I came 100% wrong probably because of my biasedness & I sincerely apologise for it.
I am heartbroken at 3-0 Loss.
But thats a tough lesson for me.
As promised, I will leave.
I congratulate
@_TheEnigmous
who got the seat number & percentage right.
Its not not easy to bet against proved pollsters like
@PradeepGuptaAMI
.
But I was adamant on my numbers.
I kept on saying its TMC Wave-Everyone made fun but its is what it is.
Almost all of Ratings came true except for Balurghat & Murshidabad(ironic)
-Many more things came true
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Heartiest Congratulations to Mortoza Hossain(Bakul) on being nominated as INC+CPM candidate for Jangipur.
Official Victory is now just a matter of time!!
Abu Hena deserved Jangipur ticket but due to his ill-health, his nephew got the ticket. He is a long time INC Local Leader.
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India-TV on October 2023 :
BJP-10, TMC-30
India-TV on March 2024 :
BJP-22, TMC-19
6 months mein sab Anti-Incumbency hogya🤡🤡
Media is trying to paint a "Mahaul" for BJP but Ground Reality is something else...
4th June will be awesome.
Saffron tears in Bengal🤗🤗
VIDEO | @ 𝟒 𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭: "They (BJP) will significantly add number of seats in eastern and southern India, and we would also see a huge jump in their vote share which is more important in states like Tamil Nadu. I had said this a year back that for the
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The seat I am going to lookout in Phase 5.
BJP has surrendered.
Hopefully Non-Bengalis in Rishra Belt understand and vote strategically.
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I am warning
@INCIndia
@INCWestBengal
about MALDA UTTAR.
Campaign is not upto mark yet.
BJP surging ahead !
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My gut feeling says LDF will do very well this time. May be even more than UDF.
The 1st seat they will snatch is Palakkad.
BJP will be 3rd in all 20 seats.
Even Trivandrum will be fierce contest between CPI & INC.
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TMC-46%
BJP-35%
LF+INC-16%
OTHS-3%
Tomorrow, I am gonna (reluctantly) give my Overall Percentage Prediction of West Bengal.
Give your estimate in reply of this tweet.
(TMC-,
BJP-,
LF-INC-)
Lets see if anyone gets it perfectly right in 4th June.
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As of now, I am giving BJP 7 seats in WB.
Alipurduar
Jalpaiguri
Darjeeling
Ranaghat
Tamluk
Kanthi
Asansol
Seats in doubt-6
Coochbehar
Raiganj
Malda Uttar
Purulia
Bankura
Bishnupur
In the rest,the door is closed.
The vote for BJP is because of MODI & HINDUTVA.
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If you rate WB LS as best seats for TMC from 1 to 42 then,
1.Diamond Harbour
2.Kolkata Dakshin
3.Sreerampur
.....
41.Malda Dakshin
42.Darjeeling
This is a message for people who believe Sreerampur will go to CPM & Malda Dakshin to TMC.
(Rating as per best not Margin.)
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কৃষ্ণনগরে পরাজয় স্বীকার করল বিজেপি।
মহুয়া জেলে গেলে লিড আরও অনেক বেশি বাড়বে।
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He accurately depicts the Upper Caste Urban Bhodrolok Affluent Mamta/TMC-hating men in West Bengal.
Most of them have very similar opinion on Mamta.
DISTURBEING VIDEO
Former HC Judge & BJP Lok Sabha Candidate Abhijit Ganguly wants to know at What Price Mamata Banerjee will be "Sold".
Ganguly should Render Unconditional Apology.
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Two Important Developments on 3rd Front in West Bengal:
1) Many CPM Leaders have opined to break Left Front.
2) Noushad Siddiqui has stated he is ready to fight against Abhisekh Banerjee in Diamond Harbour(meaning ISF has agreed to ally with CPM).
Two based developments.🫡🔥🔥
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Despite going wrong in Murshidabad, a lot of you kept faith in me.
Received 4 positive DMs regarding not to leave Twitter.
Will try to improve myself even further.
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Many people in my TL are predicting Jangipur as TMC because TMC candidate is more known or wealthy.
But there are "some things" going on which makes me pretty confident about INC winning it by substantial Margin.
Will give the reason after polling is complete.
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Tomorrow, I am gonna (reluctantly) give my Overall Percentage Prediction of West Bengal.
Give your estimate in reply of this tweet.
(TMC-,
BJP-,
LF-INC-)
Lets see if anyone gets it perfectly right in 4th June.
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TMC & IPAC IT Cell has gone real underground after this dropped.
Btw, Thank you Rahul Gandhi for showing Mamata her real Aukaat.❤️
STORY | Kharge lauds Adhir Ranjan as Congress' combative soldier
READ:
VIDEO | "I don't want to comment on an individual. He is also a combative soldier of the Congress, a leader from West Bengal. Few people claiming that TMC didn't want us to forge an
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Murshidabad Prediction Today.
Get ready for some epic meltdown.
Btw BJP should give Jangipur candidate today, so that I can give my numbers.
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My Prediction for Murshidabad District in Lok Sabha(AC Wise) :
LF+INC : 21(52-56%)
TMC : 0(29-34%)
BJP : 1(10-14%)
All 3 Lok Sabhas will be won by Alliance.
Save this tweet.If I am Wrong,I will delete my Twitter Handle.
Read this Article to understand BJP's Calculation regarding Bahrampur.
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মালদা উত্তরের মুসলমানদের বলছি :
ভোট শুধু কংগ্রেসের মোস্তাক কে।
অন্য কাউকে ভোট দিলে বিজেপি জিতবে।
তৃণমূল কর্মীদের কাছে আবেদন লোকাল লেভেলে বা বিধানসভায় তৃণমূলকে ভোট দিন কিন্তু এই লোকসভায় বৃহত্তর স্বার্থে কংগ্রেসকে ভোট দিন।
টার্গেট : ৯০% মুসলমান ভোট কংগ্রেসে।
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Jangipur Lok Sabha :
INC GAIN from TMC.
Note:-This is the last Lok Sabha of total 6 Loksabhas where I have given percentage wise breakdown. In the rest 36, I will just predict the Winner/Winning Party.
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Diamond Harbour Loksabha is the most compolitian in WB.
It has Bengali Hindus, Bengali Muslims, Non Bengali Hindus, Non Bengali Muslims in big numbers.
TMC gets support from all 4 major identities.
Hence its the safest seat for TMC.
No Opposition Party gets support from all 4.
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Malda TMC is virtually the worst unit of TMC.
All INC Imports are Top Notch Dhandabaj.
Only Tajmul Hossain, Sabitri Mitra deserve ticket next time.
Rest Samar Mukherjee, Chandana Sarkar, Sabina Yeasmin, Abdul Goni need to be gone.
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1)Kolkata is unbearable amidst heat waves.
2) CPM does not have Buses to bring People, Food Coupons for all attendees(Unlike you know who), money flowing.
But still manages huge turnout even in district level rallies.
Reason :
1)Organisation
2)Greater Kolkata
আজ বিকালে
বারাসাত কাছারি ময়দানে।
লাল ঝান্ডায় লালে লাল।
চোখে চোখ রেখেই
উত্তরের ব্রিগেডের উত্তর।।
।। চ্যালেঞ্জ থাকলো।।
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She basically travelled all way to say this.
No wonder why Polls constantly fail in WB.
My P.O.V. - Its not a close contest in WB.
Wrapping up from West Bengal with these broad takeaways from the ground:
1. “Didi ya Dada — Koi press reporter ya exit poll nahi bata paayega ki Bengal mein kiska paladaa bhaari hai aur yahan exactly kya hoga”, one voter told me, perhaps succinctly capturing the status of West
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The interesting fights in West Bengal in this phase are :
-Krishnanagar
-Ranaghat
Rest are pretty much settled in my opinion.
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Indian Judiciary is in pretty disgusting... West Bengal probably the worst.
In Sub Div. Courts, you have to hire Pro TMC Lawyers to get favourable verdict.
On the other hand, HC Judges are doing Tolabaaji in chain system through pro-BJP Land Mafia/Dealers.
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Exactly matches my numbers.
28-9-5.
Let see if finally it holds or not.
Final Prediction after 7th Phase.
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There is somewhat a Vacuum in Opposition Space in West Bengal now.
Harsh Reality is its over for Congress here now.
On the other hand, its completely on BJP Central Leadership now.
Conpiling AC wise results...will give insights one by one.
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A big L for Opposition in WB.
TMC will successfully portray Calcutta HC as biased among masses.
Calcutta HC judge Justice Abhijit Ganguly says he will resign to help people in a bigger way, hints at joining politics.
"I will not say today why I took this decision. I will join a bigger sphere to help people," he tells ABP Ananda.
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Malda Uttar Prediction :
Too Close to call.
BJP & INC are basically in a tie.
BJP is just a tad hair ahead but INC has better organization to catch up.
@INCWestBengal
@adhirrcinc
@RahulGandhi
focus on this potential gain.
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Mamta Banerjee's Political Acumen & foresightedness >> BJP Bengal +CPM Bengal+INC Bengal+ Rest of TMC Leaders combined.
I think she is more sly than even Modi or Shah.
The only Bengal Politician who comes at distant second after her is- Adhir Ranjan Choudhury & its not close.
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Dont care who's what minister...at the end it doesnt matter to us.
But the fact that unelected(RS) Ashwini Vaishnaw returning as Railway Minister shows how far from reality Modi is.
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Politics is such that,
A person like Manas Bhunia loses Medinipur in 2019 by 90k.
Whereas, June Maliah may win the same Medinipur in 2024 easily.
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Did you notice WB Governor kept mum on BJP worker Rathibala Ari Murder?
Also, Did you notice how TMC Top Leadership doesnt even mention Molestation case anymore+How TMC Mouthpieces Sangbad Pratidin & Eisamay too avoid writing on it?
Thats how you do Setting (using blackmail)...
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Do you know that Mausam Noor went to Delhi after TMC denied her ticket in Jonogorjon Sabha?
She met few Congress Leaders for Malda Uttar Ticket. Even Isha & Dalu forgave her & did not mind.
But one person was adamant on not giving her ticket - Adhir Ranjan!!
(1/2)
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Train Journey to Kolkata in General Coach for people outside of Greater Kolkata is a NIGHTMARE!!
Ashwini Vaisnaw & Modi are either Anti Bengali or completely incompetent.
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I am in tears literally....🥹🥹
As Raiganj campaign ends today, I have never seen such a great campaign.
Hopefully, Srijan surpasses it.❤️
I will be rooting for these 2 young faces.🤲
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Mamta Banerjee should stringently punish Apartment Voters & Non Bengalis for not voting for her.
Everytime Muslims & Slum Voters wont save you. Once, you lose even a bit of their support, you will be overthrown.
Thats my 2 cents on Sustainability on politics.....
You cant satisfy everyone....& by trying to satisfy everyone, you will dissatisfy everyone.
BJP did bulldozers,CAA to punish Muslims for not voting them.
When INC comes, it will increase Reservation to punish UCs for not voting them.
That way both have sustained themselves.
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Understood the game now.
TMC gave INC free run in 6 Lok Sabhas.
Now INC will ally with CPM & will demand seats like Krishnanagar, Birbhum, Purulia where CPM+INC did very well in Local Election. INC will field very weak candidates there.
Thats Mamta's cunningness I talk about!!
1st impression from Candidate List:
Mamta & Rahul are great actors.
Not in alliance but also in alliance.
I was never concerned with Baharampur.
But with Raiganj & Malda Uttar.
BJP turncoat Hindu Candidate in Raiganj.
Also unknown Hindu candidate in Malda Uttar.
Thank you Didi
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My message to Opposition in WB :
Cry baby politics dont work.
Not in West Bengal.Not every time.
You need to win no matter what....If you lose,nobody will remember you.
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If ever Communism returns to Bengal, it will be on the promise of redistribution of wealth accumulated by Camac Street, Santikunja etc.....
Untold story of redistribution of wealth by communist in Bengal ..
They took our land forcefully, looted our crops, took fruits from Gardens, fish from ponds , plus social boycott for months .
a horror story which has been covered up
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Sujan Chakraborty rarely smiles. Here is a pic of him smiling.
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I did not want to come back but people like
@Sohom03
forced me to do so.
These people wanted a complete surrender of
@INCWestBengal
to
@AITCofficial
. He will win.
From now on,
@INCWestBengal
Supporters have to cheer on the success of the party on other states but not here.
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৪ জুন দুপুর ১ টা :
সন্দেশখালিতে আসল খেলা শুরু হবে।
আমি টিভির সামনে বসে মজা নেবো খালি😁
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Now moving on to 7th Phase lets remove all delusions(if any) from Kolkata North :
2021 AE Result from TMC Firewall of Beleghata+Chowringee+Entally :
Total :4,27,049
TMC: 2,74,992(64.4%)
BJP:1,04,251(24.4%)
LF+:32,665(7.7%)
TMC Lead of 1,70,741 just from these 3 ACs.
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CPM never had a chance in any seat of WB except Murshidabad as per my predictions which also turned out to be true.
MSD result was disappointing but I still hope
@CPIM_WESTBENGAL
should not give up on fighting against
@AITCofficial
.
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বীরভূমকে যদি রাঢ়বঙ্গ-পশ্চিমান্চল ধরা হয় তাহলে ২০০৯ এই এলাকাই শতাব্দী রায় তৃণমূলের একমাত্র জয়ী সাংসদ।ব্যবধান ৬১ হাজার।
২০১৪ ব্যবধান বেড়ে ৬৭ হাজার।
২০১৯ ব্যবধান বেড়ে ৮৯ হাজার।
২০২৪ এও কি এই ট্রেন্ড চলবে?
উত্তর হচ্ছে হ্যাঁ।
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বেশি কিছু লিখবো না।
খালি এইটুকু বলবো, বসিরহাটে বিজেপি নিজে তো হারতোই, জোটের যে সম্ভবনা টুকু ছিল সেটাও শেষ করে দিয়ে গেল।
BIG BREAKING: SANDESHKHALI PLAN EXPOSED
সন্দেশখালির ঘটনা পুরোটাই বিজেপির সাজানো একটা ষড়যন্ত্র। যার মাস্টারমাইন্ড ছিল শুভেন্দু অধিকারী। নিজের মুখে স্বীকার করল বিজেপি মন্ডল সভাপতি।
#SandeshkhaliExposed
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Both Krishnanagar & Birbhum LS have similar Demographics,
CPM & INC have fielded Strong Minority faces to challenge both Incumbent TMC MPs.
No more free run in Muslim Areas
Meanwhile, BJP has decided to give a walkover to TMC in both.
Do you see the setting now?
2016 Results⬇️
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ভেটাগুড়ি দখল করার পূর্ণ চেষ্টা চলছে কেন্দ্রীয় বাহিনীর সাহায্যে।
সাবধান!!
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2004 Loksabha : INC-3, CPM-0
2006 Assembly : INC-3, CPM-14, Ind.(Adhir supported)-2
Alliances were same in both years. (TMC was nonexistent in the district.)
Murshidabad is the "most politically conscious" district in whole West Bengal.
Makes very wise decision!
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বেল পাকলে কাকের কী? But still...
-Candidate is hiding behind. What kind of campaign is this?
-Tapas Roy's face always like that? His body language is too bad as if not interested at all.
Also No campaign for Debasree Choudhuri who happened to be frmr. Union Minister.
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For your information,
TMC is ahead in both DumDum & Kolkata North by a good margin.
TMC MLA Tapas Roy to join BJP Today.
May Contest Lok Sabha Election from Dum Dum or Kolkata Uttar.
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Calcutta High Court is a BJP Coolie.
Nothing new.
Some more BJP Coolies who wear mask of neutrality. CPM beware!
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It all started when I posted the Numbers for Murshidabad District.
(Check my timeline)
TMC & BJP IT Cell doesnot want the rise of any 3rd force challenging their binary.
But at their heart,they very well know how good I am on Murshidabad Politics.
Wait for 4th June.✌️
West Bengal Pradesh Congress Comittee Media Incharge.
LOL he's a living, breathing lowlife.
Someone gift him a "hawai choti" so that he can fulfill his fetishes and fantasies related to Pishi Bhaipo 😂
@RahulGandhi
please choose your executives wisely, and not these jokers.
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This is what happens when Ruling Party & Main Opposition Porty does under table deal!!
Shame on
@ECISVEEP
Complete rerun of 2019 Module...
Listen to what
@PratikRahaman
candidate of CPM ( Diamond Harbour Loksobha) is saying.
This is unprecedented.
@CPIM_WESTBENGAL
@MayukhDuke
@chhuti_is
@mishra_surjya
@Rajaban74609782
@Ipica34
@ECISVEEP
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Final Margin -22980
Percent also almost same.
🙂
@_TheEnigmous
Bayron(Congress) will win. Margin-22000.
Cong-47%
TMC-35%
BJP-14%
Oths+Nota-4%.
@_TheEnigmous
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TBH, the vote for INC in Murshidabad is Vote for Adhir.
INC West Bengal anyways is restricted to Adhir, Victor, Isha Khan, Nepal Mahata.
Pretty sure, none of them wants to surrender to Mamta. All of them should move to CPM/BJP post this election & end this ordeal.
This Chaploos doesnt even have the aukaat of coming close to Adhir's persona.
This guy was badly defeated in 2019 despite State machinery.
@adhirrcinc
will win because of immense love from MSD. But he should contemplate leaving the party honestly & burying the party permanently.
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This one is a gem...
Narendranath Chakroborty's Ninja Technique worked phenomenally.
🤣🤣
40k lead from Pandabeswar.😍
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Opinion on results so far :
CPM's result is underwhelming in 24 Parganas.
BJP's result is superb in East Medinipur & quite well in rest of the division but worse than expected in North Bengal.
I will make some important change to my earlier prediction of Lok Sabha.
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