$alab released quarterly earnings after market close. The ER is pretty good, but the share price had some violent moves: dropped to 92 first, rose to 103, and then settled at 99. When I checked its wave count, the wave-2 target is right at 94-90. So the post-ER move after market may have satisfied the wave-2 correction. I like to see if the 90-94 area will be retested in cash session tomorrow. That may be a good entry point for longs. The 1st level upside target is 125-130. Above it, the 2nd level target is around 145.

$btcusd $btc #Bitcoin provided an early signal of bottoming and reversing. I have bought a pilot position in $BITX after market close. Will watch $conl $mstx $bitx $wgmi closely tomorrow morning.

Robotics and drones are two of the top investment themes this year. I have accumulated long positions in the following stocks since last week. They are blooming last Friday and today. There will be a lot of volatility in these names. But they all look good in the near term. $PDYN $IRBT $LAES $ARBE $RR $GFAI $LFWD $SERV $ONDS

$amd, in my opinion, is a train wreck. In my WeChat group, I have been repeatedly stating that it is a stock that should be avoided for months. The reason is very simple: from wave perspective, it has been in C-wave down with 90-80 as the target for final bottom. Until it reaches 90 area, I would not be interested in buying it. The daily chart below provided more detailed anticipations on its near term moves. Hardware/Infrastructure business is tough. Typically, leaders take all and leave very little space for the laggards to thrive. I remember that even in the red hot dotcom era, investors in Fore Network and 3Com ended up eating the dust from Cisco.

$ionq looks to be ready to start wave-c drop. Target for this selloff is 20-16. I guess it needs the bust for next boom…

On Friday, $spx had a rather large drop from the Hight of Day to the market close. Although this drop is too big to be ideal for wave-4, $spx still is above the 6005 support area and the potential for a wave-5 rally to new highs remains viable. But bulls are being pushed against ropes now: 1) since wave-4, as labeled, is overlapping with wave-1, the only way to immediately rally to new high is through a diagonal pattern. Diagonal is not a reliable pattern and hard to be counted on. And even if $spx takes the wave-5 up to a higher high, likely a sharp selloff will follow. 2) I am quite certain that there will be a lower low (not necessarily at Monday’s close, could be just an intraday lower low) on Monday than Friday’s close. This means $spx will drop even closer to the 6005 support line and carry a higher risk of breaking 6005-5990 support zone. If this break takes place, it will invalidate the bull case for an immediate subsequent rally to new highs. So while I think Scenario #1 as charted below is still possible, we do have a heightened risk for $spx to take the path in Scenario #2. Scenario #2 will be alerted if $spx drops below 5990 and will be confirmed if $spx drops below 5960. I am on my toe now and added hedge on Friday.

We will likely witness a moment of “rising out of ashes” in $smci. It has formed a 5-wave up structure since the low at the beginning of February. The wave-2 pullback is expected to be corrective, targeting at 30-32.68. After the wave-2 pullback, $smci will likely rally to 50 in wave-3.

$tsla - Today’s bounce was weak and only reached 381. The wave structure of this bounce was also in 3 waves, which does not support “the bottom is in” rhetorics in many FinTwits. As illustrated in the charts attached, $tsla started the wave-(3) of 3 down in the C-Wave. The target for wave-(3) of 3 is 335-320. Two possible path to the bottom of wave-(3) of 3: 1) direct drop from today’s close of 361; 2) drop to 350-360, bounce to 380-390 ( Pink path labeled in the chart), and then drop to 335-320. Even at 335-320, it is still just the bottom of wave-(3). After a wave-(4) bounce, it will drop again to new lows (lower than 320) in wave-(5). No matter how you slice and dice, this chart is not pretty. The final bottom of the wave-C might reside at mid-200s.

$spx reached 6101 this morning and then pulled back. The morning high is the wave-(iii) top. The current pullback is the wave-(iv) pullback. As along as $spx can hold 6005 ( this is a support, not a target), I think it can still rally to new highs in wave-(v). Dropping below 5960 will invalidate any near term rally potentials. But I view that as a low probability option now.

$asts broke out. My first level target is 34-39. Once breaking above 40, I expect it to reach 51-55.

On the other hand, the strong post-ER rally in some stocks ushered the start of wave-3 or wave-5 up moves. I plan to long those stocks, including: $mpwr $leu $crnc $amzn For $amzn, 226-220 is the bottom of its wave-4. The low of the drop after ER sat right at this area. I view it as a good entry point for longs.

After post-market earning release, a few stocks made a strong rally. But what is interesting is that these rallies happen to take these stocks to the position that is expected to be the top of their wave-5 or wave-3 or wave-b respectively. I plan to initiate short with put options on these stocks tomorrow, including: $net $docs $pins $ftnt $afrm ( unless it breaks above the last high )

As anticipated, $tsla bounced after reaching the 365-350 target zone. The initial structure of today’s bounce in $tsla appears to be in a 3-wave micro-structure. This indicates the bounce to 390-400 will likely just be a corrective bounce. So based on this observation, I am expecting the following path for $tsla in near future moves: First step, bounce to 380-385 Second step, pull back to 370 area Third step, rise to 390-400 area Fourth step, a sharp selloff to new lows (below 360).

I think the path in the chart below is what is being played out. Wave-(iv) has completed today and wave-(v) has started. Ideally, wave -(v) should reach $spx 6110-30 which will mark the completion of wave-(3). From that point, we can expect a wave-(4) pullback and then another rally in wave-(5).

$TSLA dropped into the target zone. I have exited all $TSLQ positions when $TSLA fell below 365 this morning. I think there is still a good possibility that it can drop into 360-350 zone, but I am happy to lock all the gain in the short positions. What is next? I think there will be a bounce from 365-350 area to a target zone of 390-400. Another drop to new low could follow afterwards. But I will assess the wave structure of this bounce first before deciding what is next.

This is still a 50/50 situation. Personally I do not want to be aggressive now. The pink option (bearish option) is not invalidated yet. So the risk is still high. Hopefully today and tomorrow will provide more clarity. For individual sectors, I like biotech now ( this is one of my 2025 1H themes). $xbi $arkg are the ETFs, but there are some quite bullish individual stocks.

Two wave structure options for $spx. One is labeled in blue (which is a near-term bullish structure), the other is in pink. The blue option indicates that the a-b-c 3-wave correction in wave-2 is completed and $spx is ready to push higher. The pink option views that the a-b-c structure is just wave-a and wave-b, and there will be another wave-c down in wave-2. I am leaning on the blue option now, but stay watchful on the pink option. The second chart is the micro-wave structure breakdown for blue path. Falling below 6010 will favor the pink option.

$tsla is still marching on the wave-C down. My immediate target for this downslope remains at 350-365, although I do not think it will be the final low, given how the wave structure evolved.

The strong push close to the close of market is really encouraging. I think we will see $spx over 6070 tonight or tomorrow. I will update with the rally target numbers later.

$SPX is at resistance zone (6050-70). It needs to break above 6070 quickly and stay above 6070 with any pullbacks. Failing to do so still makes a selloff highly possible. I would be very cautious here.