1/ I started writing publicly on Seeking Alpha on February 2022, publishing 69 company-specific articles since.
I decided to look back to build a scorecard with the ratings I've given the companies I've written about.
(More in the next tweets)
1/ Sharing some semiconductor-related content now that semis are back (they never left)
First, a simple visual that explains the industry's structure. People who already know the industry might find this basic, but I struggled to find something similar when doing my research
1. Elon Musk takes a 9% stake on $TWTR
2. Shares jump 25% on the news
3. Elon Musk just made 25% gain without the company changing one bit
4. The market acknowledges 25% as the new risk-free rate
Who said investing was difficult?
I tried to make a one-pager to serve as a quick intro to the semiconductor industry but, unfortunately, I needed three pages 😅
This first page goes over the types of chips and how a chip is made.
Hope you enjoy it and feel free to share if you do!
A couple of weeks ago I prepared an $ASML 45+ slide deck for a presentation I gave.
Thinking about uploading it here if people are interested.
Like/RT if you'd like to see it here and I might upload it tomorrow
François Rochon, founder of Giverny Capital, has achieved a 30-year 15.7% CAGR.
His annual letters are a must read for any LT quality investor.
I compiled them all in one PDF (+350 pgs). You can download it from the link below!
🔗
Created this simplified ROIC Cheat Sheet.
It's already said in the sheet, but this is mainly applicable to more mature companies, not so much to young companies in their early growth stages.
Hope you enjoy! 👇
4 PDF’s that I consider are key for any investor to read:
1. Peter Lynch’s articles
2. Berkshire’s shareholder letters (Warren Buffett)
3. Nomad shareholder letters (Nick Sleep)
4. Fundsmith’s shareholder letters (Terry Smith)
Nick Sleep’s letter to Warren Buffett telling him that they will be forced to sell Berkshire Hathaway’s shares
This is how long term investors talk between them 👇
1/ A couple of weeks ago I gave a presentation on $ASML to some investors.
The goal of the presentation was to give an overview on the company, touching all the relevant topics (I cover $ASML more in detail at Best Anchor Stocks, together with other high quality companies)
👇
I summarized
@McKinsey
's 10 sources of competitive advantage in one image and included some examples that I think fit the description (list is not exhaustive, of course)
Can you think of any more examples?
One of the things I love about investing is second-order thinking.
Who would’ve thought a 2-century-old Japanese porcelain maker would benefit from AI?
"A bull market is when you check your stocks every day to see how much they went up. A bear market is when you don't bother to look anymore."
John Hammerslough
During the past week, I asked 23 investors to tell me their highest conviction holding and a short pitch about the company.
I thought that this information could add value to Fintwit although remember that you should always do your own DD.
Let’s go!
//THREAD//
👀 $TDOC (Teladoc) at a glance!
If you want to take a quick glance at the global leader in the telehealth industry then this thread is for you!
Lets go! ⬇️
This framework I shared months ago is still relevant today.
Ideally every investor would like to sell at the start of worsening fundamentals, but sometimes it takes a couple of Qs to get to this conclusion.
Over the LT, selling early is a costlier mistake than selling late.
Some books out of my library that I believe any investor should read.
Would add two more (I have them in kindle version):
1. 100 baggers by
@chriswmayer
2. Investing for growth by T. Smith
1/ Recently finished reading Capital Returns and I wanted to bring here some important lessons for investors.
(Thoughts are scattered in no particular order)
1/ Last week, François Rochon, founder of Giverny Capital gave me an hour of his time to talk about investing.
We talked about topics such as valuation, what makes a high-quality company...
Giverny Capital has achieved a mid double-digit CAGR for a whopping 30 years
1/ Valuation is a critical topic for any investor, although it's a highly subjective one.
Subjectivity starts with the proper method to use. Below you can find two of the most popular methods with their advantages and drawbacks 👇
$ADYEY at a glance
In this thread I will try to summarise one of the strongest value propositions in the payment Industry: Adyen.
Without further a do, let’s get started!
/THREAD/
1/ Warren Buffett's shareholder letters are famous in the investor community, and rightly so.
However, a lot can be learnt from another exceptional capital allocator, Mark Leonard, $CSU's founder.
I have compiled all his letters in one PDF
🔗
If you bought $FB before 2012 you didn't know anything about the Instagram acquisition
If you bought $GOOG before 2006 you didn't know anything about the YouTube acquisition
Investing in great managements will pay off in ways you can never imagine
I prepared a one-pager on Adyen.
I tried to fit as much as I could in the space I had but there's obviously much more to the company.
Hope you enjoy it! 👇
$PLTR | Enabling data-driven decision making
This time I decided to deep dive $PLTR. This time I also built up a presentation with the main aspects of the company so people that don't want to read the full document can have an idea of the company!
$APPS | A one-of-a-kind company
Digital Turbine is a unique company which is executing very well but is subject to important third-party risks that should not be ignored by investors.
Hope you enjoy this deep dive!👇
1/ A perfect market timer who bought the market at its lowest PE in 1920 (4.8x) and sold at peak PE (44.2x) in 1999 would've realized a 14.5% 79-year CAGR.
From this 14.5%...
- 2.8%/year was attributable to multiple expansion
- 11.7%/year was attributable to biz performance
1/ Last week I uploaded pt. 1 of an $ASML presentation I gave to some investors. I discussed topics such as the industry, what the company does, financials, moat etc.
In Part 2 I will talk about management, capital allocation, risks, and valuation
Let's get on with it 👇
1/ Terry Smith's take on Fundsmith not owning $GOOG
"On Alphabet ( $GOOG ), it's a company that's got a very powerful market position. The dominant position, unassailable probably, in online search and it's got a duopoly in digital advertising as a result."
Adyen $ADYEY is significantly down today (-28%) after reporting H1 earnings. Have not gone into a lot of detail yet, but most of it seems caused by management being long-term oriented and countercyclical, and of course, because it was richly valued.
Some months ago a built this
People last year: "I will like this stock when it gets cut in half."
People this year after that stock is cut in half: "I will like this stock when it's cut in half."
I mean...what's your investment strategy? Wait until you get it for free?
I prepared this summary about Phil Fisher's advice on when to buy and when to sell, as described in Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.
Highly recommend the book if you haven't read it yet.
Hope you enjoy!
1/ Being able to know what an asset is worth is an essential tool for any investor.
There are many valuation methods with historical multiples and the discounted cash flow model being the most used. They both have drawbacks:
$FB on Reels monetization
"We’re creating a variety of opportunities for creators to earn money for their reels. Our Reels Play bonus program, part of our $1 billion creator investment, pays eligible creators up to $35,000 a month based on the views of their qualifying reels."
Decided to do this one-pager on $TDOC
It's nothing too specific but writing it down helped me understand where the company is at.
Sentiment is very negative right now, but might change once the company becomes profitable (which I think will happen fairly soon)
Disc.: Long
1/ If you're looking at P/Es in isolation, you're doing it wrong.
ROIC plays a critical role in determining what an appropriate multiple is for any given company. High returns matter, even if you can't see them at first sight.
$V and $MA say that they see no signs of recession yet ➡️ Not relevant
A $36 billion market cap company says it will miss guidance (which was 20% higher than market's expectations one month ago) due to macro environment ➡️ The best indicator of a recession
I have just published the most detailed article I have ever shared publicly.
It's on Deere $DE and pretty much explains everything there's to know about the business (I share the outline below).
If you enjoy it I would highly appreciate your share as it took quite a bit of
Ken Fisher's (Phil Fisher's son) top holdings.
Some interesting long-term holdings...
$MSFT owned since 2001
$AAPL owned since 2005
$AMZN owned since 2011
$GOOG owned since 2007
$TSM owned since 2003
$CAT owned since 2001
$ASML owned since 2009
I am thinking on preparing a one-pager (I’ll maybe need two pages) on the semiconductor industry with the basics
- What is a chip
- How it’s made
- Different players
- Geopolitical tensions…
Would you be interested? Like this tweet if you would!
Fundsmith's 2021 Shareholder Letter came out earlier this year.
13 pages of pure wisdom by Terry Smith and his team.
Small thread to highlight some of the things I found most interesting
🧵
For the last couple of months, I have been doing some visuals about a wide variety of topics. The objective is to try to simplify complex concepts.
I decided to do a thread with all of these visuals, and here it is! 🧵
Built a checklist with 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇪🇺 companies in "boring" industries out of the current spotlight (avoided tech and semis) with...
✅ ROE > 15%
✅ 3Y Rev CAGR > 5%
✅ +ve FCF/share
✅ GM > 40%
✅ NI margin > 15%
✅ Beta < 1.2
✅ P/E (NTM) < 30x
36 results, ordered by industry
Didn’t buy $GOOG at $2,000 thinking it was “too expensive”
The stock is +37% from those levels and probably will buy it now
It’s the same mistake over and over again
Still one of the most impressive pictures out there.
Scale brought problems, problems brought solutions and solutions were eventually converted into business lines
$AMZN
My ideal screener:
1. Revenue growth > 5%
2. ROIC > 15%
3. No debt
4. No losses on a cash flow basis in the past 10 years
5. High insider ownership
6. CAGR Total return over the past 5 years > 10%
7. FCF margin > 0%
8. Country with political stability
From here I like to look
Bought the iPad Pro today, including the Apple Pencil. My thoughts after using it are exactly the same as with every $AAPL product:
Before buying it 👉 The product is very expensive
After buying it 👉 The product is worth every dollar spent on it
You have to pay for quality
There are an increasing number of accounts saying things like:
"I'm 22 and I have a net worth of $2 million. Want to know how I did it? I left my 9/5 and started to invest."
Surely there are some cases that are true but 99% must be BS
$ABNB | Disrupting the accommodation industry
The past few weeks I decided to deep dive on Airbnb. I knew I loved the product but was curious to know if I would love the company as a long term investment too!
Hope you enjoy it!
The fact that $FB is dropping more than 3% on something that was already announced in the Q2 Earnings Call demonstrates the short memory the market has
This quote by Tom Walsh (BG) is now one of my all-time favs:
"The industry does look cyclical but that obsession on the perfect entry/exit point can blind you to the structural opportunity, it's there to blind you to the excellence of the underlying business and the LT prospects
1/ Some months ago I built a checklist to try to "objectivize" the quality of the companies included in my portfolio.
I run $CPRT through the Checklist and it got a score of 85.4 (out of 100).
Here's how it fared in each category (a brief explanation follows) 👇
$U | Re-defining reality (Part 1)
The new article of the
@TheDDNewsletter
is out!
During the last month I researched Unity to see what it has to offer!
The deep dive is divided in two articles due to extensive length. Part 2 will come out tomorrow!
1/ Many investors tend to look at PE and growth, ignoring how this growth is achieved
Would you rather own...
a) 20 PE company growing 10%
b) 15 PE company growing 10%
While many would go for (b) due to its relative cheapness, truth is there's not enough information to decide
I asked 19 Fintwit investors about their most important mistake as an exercise of transparency.
The answers vary from very specific examples to more general mistakes that every investor faces every year.
Hope you enjoy and feel free to share with a RT!
/THREAD/
Decided to do this one-pager on $APPS just in case it leads someone to look closer into the company.
It's obviously not extremely detailed but it was the only way to keep it inside a page.
Full disclosure: I have a 4% position with a cost basis of $57.
Not investment advice.
1/ François Rochon recently released Giverny Capital's 2022 Annual Letter
It was once again refreshing after a tough year in the stock market, and the podium of errors was pretty interesting
🧵 with some highlights
$DKNG | The future of Online Sports Betting and Gambling? 🎲🎰
The past two weeks I decided to do a deep dive on Draftkings. I do not currently hold a position but it was on my watchlist.
If you enjoy it please share as it will help out a lot!
1/ Aoris Investment Management released its 2023 annual letter and it's a must read for any LT investor.
Echoes some of my thoughts across several topics.
Sold: $NKE $GGG
Bought: $RELX $ATCO.B
Brief thread 👇
1/ "Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?"
If I were to ask this question to most of the people here, the answer would most likely be a resounding "yes." There's evidence to support it too.
But, what do we mean when we say "stocks"?
1/ Very interesting slide regarding government incentives during $ASML's Investor Day.
Chip industry stakeholders have more than enough money to drive capacity expansion, so why are governments giving them incentives?
Wrote three industry deep dives this year (one is a podcast transcript):
1. Luxury
2. Spirits
3. Semiconductors
I always have trouble finding an industry primer before digging deep into any given company so I hope they were useful.
🔗 in the next tweet