Arun
@IndNewbieTrader
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Short bets on volatility. Positional Iron Condor and Option Wheel Trader. Full time drug hunter. MIT Alumni with a PhD.
Joined May 2020
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Send us removal request.
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Option buying August:
It has been a good month for option buying. Made
a few updates to logic and algo mid-July.
It has had a positive impact.
Win rate: 45%
Avg profit: +1845.18
Avg loss: -739
Net P&L: +23948
Capital used: ~50000
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Subhashish Pani is a super profitable trader.
But is his publicly shared 5EMA strategy profitable?
Let's test it:
Basic setup:
5EMA on 5min for short
Close > 5EMA is the trigger
Entry = Close
SL = High of signal candle
Target: No Target
We'll start with short signals first.
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Need python code for trading?
I use python to trade and try to automate as much as possible.
I plan to provide a lot of my automation code over time for folks who are starting out.
I will do this as code for specific tasks.
Today: How I calculate the next upcoming expiry day?
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Interested to use G-sec as cash collateral? Read on:
G-secs are govt bonds that are safer than FDs and can be pledged as cash collateral.
However, people stay away from G-Secs because they don't fully understand the price, interest.
Here are what I have learnt over time:
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Option Buying:
Here are the results from OI/Volume/RSI option buying strategy shared by
@jitendrajain
&
@yogeshnanda1
:
Basic setup:
OI < SMA(OI,20)
RSI > 60
Volume > SMA(Vol, 20)
Close > Open
SL is min(open, vwap) or 12 pts
Tested each for 18 months from 2022 to Jun 2023.
1/n
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Weekly Nifty iron condor account curve for the past year.
Initial capital was 12.1L. Actual trading margin: 10L after haircut.
ROI: 76% (on 12.1L)
MDD: 8%
My positions were fully hedged with max exposure of 12-15% in case of circuit and ~3% with 2% overnight gap.
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Trade planning for tomorrow begins today itself.
For non-directional positional trades, gaps are difficult to manage. Esp true for IC as premiums are low and shoot up after a gap. So, very important to plan
Here is my routine to prepare/plan/adjust at 3:00-3:30pm for tomorrow:
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Option buying weekly update based on
@jitendrajain
@yogeshnanda1
RSI, OI, volume.
Bumper hit on Tue CEs
Mon: -2183
Tue: +17921
Wed: +303
Thu: +2845
Fri: +185
Think of option buying as trend following. Low win rate but overall profitable if consistent.
Trade logs attached.
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Here are details on how I manage and adjust my weekly Iron Condor in Nifty using 8th Sep Expiry as an example.
Hedge: I use a 300 pt hedge. I have explained the reason for a 300pt hedge here:
There is a video of adjustments and daily P&L at the end.
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Total returns (Account
#2
): 61K on capital of 11.2L (5.4% ROI)
I only do Nifty Weekly Iron Condor in this account.
Takeaway:
1. Part-time or profitable trading is possible, aim for 3-4% consistently.
2. 30% Profits are from drop in VIX.
3. Need to continue learning/adapting
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Absolutely true for me too! My dad's salary was 10,000pm, when he retired in 2016. Parents still sent me to the best private school in our area. The whole family sacrificed and now I earn close to that every hour. Everything I earn/own is from their capital of time and sacrifice.
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How to calculator indicators in python with a single line of code?
A lot of folks use indicators for their strategies. I assumed indicator calculation was the most difficult part when I started but it was the easiest.
Here is how to effectively use python's ready-made libraries
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Another example of why ignoring big candles works for option buying system.
For option buying, we need to catch momentum but avoid IV and gamma spikes like these, where there is no follow up.
The 2.5ATR5 criteria was precisely added to ignore these signals.
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Noticed something interesting with OI patterns.
What's with the distinct OI patterns after 2PM at each strike?
34000PE OI decreases, 34500PE OI increases, 35000PE almost no change. Monthly.
Is it as simple as PEs being rolled up, aka bullish?
@SarangSood
anyone else?
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Option buying weekly performance: Buying 1 lot of Nifty and Banknifty options.
Mon: -1602
Tue: -1470
Wed: +300
Thu: -403
Important to keep losses small.
I will also share August monthly update in an hour.
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The basis and inspiration for my option buying setup.
Must Watch!
@jitendrajain
@yogeshnanda1
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Other parameters to test:
-Add a target (1:3)
-Test long signals
-ITM/OTM CE/PE
-Synthetic Fut
Hope this was useful. Suggest additional strategies to test, if you feel it is worth testing. Or what we can change in this.
Feel free to retweet if this is worth sharing.
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I personally learnt options from Adam Khoo’s videos mentioned here. Great selection including some fantastic global content.
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Booked 2.4% on my weekly iron condor at 12pm.
Left 0.5% on the table as it was not worth the extra risk with CPI inflation data tonight and possible IV spike later in the day.
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FY 22-23 performance: 58% ROC, traded actively from June-2022.
This is one account that I have consistently traded across the year, rest have been moved across brokers.
Only positional fully hedged Nifty Iron Condors.
Risk taken: 12-15% in circuit & 3-4% in case of 2-3% gap.
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How many option buyers here? Everyone who followed me in 2021 would have known that I run an option buying system based on RSI, Volume and OI. How many of you used to/still run that? And is there an interest to see how the basic system performed for 2022 and 2023?
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Option buying weekly performance:
1 lot of Nifty and 1 lot of BNF only
(<50K capital)
Mon: -1778
Tue: +1943
Wed: -680
Thur: +266
Fri: +3686
Missed a couple of profitable entries due to a scheduling mistake, still profitable for the week.
Trade logs attached. Happy trading!
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I have started with 2.5L. Closed this IF with +2.5%.
Nothing fancy, keeping it simple, even with adjustments.
Learn first, start small, learn more, then step it up!
@IndNewbieTrader
Starting with small quantities such as 1 lot is really important.
Losing with big capital on a new strategy puts you in a lot of stress.
Best is when you add quantities when you win. 😄👍
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Got the answer for this today, this OI pattern meant bullish. Not just normal bullish, 2% a day bullish.
Noticed something interesting with OI patterns.
What's with the distinct OI patterns after 2PM at each strike?
34000PE OI decreases, 34500PE OI increases, 35000PE almost no change. Monthly.
Is it as simple as PEs being rolled up, aka bullish?
@SarangSood
anyone else?
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Thanks
@AdityaTodmal
for the follow and for a great discussion yesterday. It’s not every day that I get to meet a Twitter superstar. 😊😎
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Testing this on Nifty:
No positive expectancy
Big drawdown
Heavy on charges since we are trading with Futures
Note: This is just for short signals.
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Option buying update: 1 lot of Nifty and 1 lot of Banknifty.
Mon: -1672
Tue: 948
Wed: -1085
Fri: -1622
Need to be ready to face DD for any trend following system.
Still working on improving execution.
Will continue to optimize but also careful about not over-fitting.
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Booked 3% in my weekly iron condor.
Still a bit hesitant to scale up, but getting there.
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Want a strategy basket with 100% ROI?
Tested a few popular strategies in a basket of 10L.
Returns: 100% ROI (surprised)
See what happens when I add 0.5% and 1% slippage (not surprised)
There are good strategies out there, but just not everything that looks great wrt just ROIs
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Nov ends in green with a P&L of +8.7%.
These are from trading only nifty iron condor weekly, completely hedged. Drop in Vol helped quite a bit.
After -4.5% in Oct, back to green in Nov.
Let's see what 5-week Dec brings. Happy trading!
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Story of how my Iron condor unfolded today.
9:16: -3.3%
9:45: -1.7%
10:00: -1%
11:30: -0.5%
12:30: Green!
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This is the story of invisible charges!
A lot of comments suggested that 5EMA strategy is profitable with manual backtests etc.
I dug deeper and I realized that charges are critical.
So, how can a system look super attractive in backtests/videos but not profitable?
See below:
Subhashish Pani is a super profitable trader.
But is his publicly shared 5EMA strategy profitable?
Let's test it:
Basic setup:
5EMA on 5min for short
Close > 5EMA is the trigger
Entry = Close
SL = High of signal candle
Target: No Target
We'll start with short signals first.
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The only thing in your control is how you react. Great honest and transparent response.
Consistency is key in this game, the power of 1% a week is extremely underrated.
Posting my last 6 months of PNL
With a view to addressing norms of transparency, we are happy to share our last 6 months PNL statements of all my accounts.
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Does Banknifty fare better?
Yes, because banknifty tends to be better for stronger intraday trends.
Still the returns are quite low
Drawdown is 4x returns
Not-tradable imo.
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The word you are looking for is ‘Sorry’ or ‘Apologies’. It literally costs nothing to say it in your statement and you have everything to gain.
@dmuthuk
#pennywisepoundfoolish
#BoycottHyundaiindia
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For a 30% return post tax:
I need to make 45% net.
Even with a high weekly win rate of 75%, and avg loss per week of -1%.
Then i need to make 1.5% every +'ve week for 30% returns.
And 1.5% /week is a high bar and close to upper limit for low-risk non-directional strategies imo
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Other parameters that I have tested:
-SL: Multiple SLs (with a varying buffer)
-Entry rules (with a varying buffer)
-Tested selling calls and buying puts with both Nifty and Banknifty
Unfortunately, none of them are profitable.
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Learning IronFly:
Closed this week at breakeven, despite a volatile week.
Possibly could have given 4% tomorrow, but R:R isn't worth it, with Nifty at a tipping point.
+12K today, -12K earlier this week = Broker Wins!
Learning: Wait for crucial levels before adjustments.
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Booked 96k for this week's iron condor. ~2%.
Ping pong markets. Position sizing in increments across the week helped.
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The pattern I was looking at in these trades is diatance of entry price from VWAP. It seems like farther the entry from vwap, lower is win rate. Issue is that there are a few winning trades with similar distances from vwap. Challenge is to remove losers without touching winners🤔
Three loss making trades yesterday with option buying setup.
Can you guess the common pattern in these loss making trades?
Should we try to ignore these signals or will it average out?
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I have stayed abroad for a long time and I can say that grass only looks greener in the other side. There are several issues I can list for Indians living overseas, but overall it’s a compromise wherever you live. What and where you compromise is upto each of us.
I'm pro India and pro BJP. Still I've to agree with many points in this thread.
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Start-up idea:
A service-oriented company aimed at getting refunds from brokers/banks etc. based on proofs.
Essentially doing the grunt work: following up, emails, writing to SEBI, SCORES, legal etc.
Charges: 1000 or 2% of the refund money.
@BandiShreyas
@SarangSood
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This is how I plan closer to 3pm every day, for the next day. Plan ahead so that you can manage your risk and stay in the trade longer, money will automatically come.
Hopefully you found this useful, re-tweet if you feel this is worth sharing to others. Happy trading!
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Please note the syllabus change for expiry:
Bears go down by stairs
Bulls take PSLV.
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One of my modifications to option buying logic from
@yogeshnanda1
@jitendrajain
.
Ignore big signal candles. From my losing trades, I realized that there were lots of big signal candles. Bad R:R.
So, I ignored signals from such big candles and tested.
Win rate increased!
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One trending day is all we need to overcome a couple of weeks of loss in option buying.
But only if risk management is water-tight.
Last week option buying: -3.5K (loss)
Mon: 3 loss trades: -2.6K.
Today: 2 trades with 1 lot of Nifty and BNF each: +21K.
Screenshots below
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Made just a couple of changes and ported my code to FINNIFTY, just as an experiment.
It was primarily for testing to see what errors are thrown.
It threw back +0.6% return and no glitches. 😯
The only issue faced was at EOD, some positions didn't have buyers for square off.
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These are great weekly analysis for anyone interested in weekly strategies. Might I also add, for people looking for a more balanced approach, all three strategies can be initiated together. It will be a smoother MTM curve, if managed properly. Thanks
@AdityaTodmal
🧵*Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 14th Oct Expiry*🧵
To form a view, let's have a look at both:
1. Technicals
2. Data
Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:
1. Aggressive Traders
2. Moderate Risk Traders
3. Low-Risk Traders
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@SarangSood
“This is how to make money in stock market”
6 likes, 2 comments
“Look I made 10 lakhs today”
758 likes, 309 comments
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Charges play an important role, so what if we deal with options.
Instead of selling fut, what if we sell an ATM call?
Sorry, even worse.
Technically no returns to show
Only a large DD
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Perhaps buying a put is better because this is a trend-chasing strategy?
Let's try with buying an ATM put.
Oops, this is almost so bad that it is better to sell a put at this point.
#alphaleak
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Today was about damage control for non-directional folks.
I traded well and managed to close flat +500. Here is my day's history.
Here is how I traded non-directional today with different adjustments.
1/n
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Finally closed it at +2.6%.
This Iron condor setup is nothing fancy.
1. Sell OTMs with 300pt hedge such that ROI is 2-4% when initiating.
2. Roll in profit legs and roll out loss legs for small moves. Adjust with half qty first.
3. Close loss legs for big moves and re-enter.
This is my original Iron condor setup (tweet below).
Currently at +1.6%, let's see how it pans out.
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Here is the code.
1. Finds the Thursday of this week
2. If Thursday has already happened, then look for next Thursday as mark it as expiry date.
3. If expiry date is in the holiday date list, then move it forward until the expiry date is not in the holiday date list.
4/n
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Booked +1.15L (~2.35%) this week from my Nifty Iron Condor.
Super stoked for my first 6-digit profit week.
It was tough with two reversals in two days, but
traded today well and always had both PE and CE positions open.
Need to focus on consistency now.
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I will be moving 50% to a new account and trade there with 50% size.
My mind/math/psychology is set with trading on a 12L account, so I use a copytrader code so that I can scale. This helps to reduce my psychological burden as I only see P&L on this account/size that I'm used to.
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Booked 55k (~2.4%) for this week's iron condor.
Seems like most of the low-hanging decay and IV cooling off has happened.
R:R isn't favorable now, as I expect theta realization only by delta moves.
I will try to make a thread/video on this week's trade, if there is interest.
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@jitendrajain
already doing this in python. it gives me a sound alert with each signal. this includes entry, simplistic SL and 1:2 R:R target. Working to add trailing SL.
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9:15am to 3pm: Nifty moved 35 pts.
3pm to 3:05 pm: Nifty moved 63pts.
Premiums are low, moves are quick and fast.
Untold story: Initiated my non-directional weeklies at 2:56pm 😩😩
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Option buying setup:
Previous week update:
Mon: -116
Tue: -2143
Wed: +2382
Thu: -728
Fri: Didn't run as I was making modifications
Missed out the PE signals on last Fri but still break even last week with P&L of -605.
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#Finvasia
folks.
Need help on how to countercheck contract note for transactions?
You need to compare the contract note with your positions.
See below:
Open -> Download -> Contract Note. Select 13/4/2023 to 13/4/2023 and open PDF
See screenshot
1/n
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Great content on a simple but very effective strategy! Money making can be simple. Aaj we need to know you Start with 1 lot and learn live.
The most valuable hedging strategy you aren't using:
The IRON FLY STRATEGY.
Knowing how to use it will protect you from gaps and intraday spikes and 10x your hedging experience.
Here's the step-by-step guide:
Collaborated with
@niki_poojary
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Here is a very simple method using which I made +1% today.
I opened at +1.5% from overnight and traded non-directional.
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Booked 65K in weekly iron condor ~3%.
Traded two accounts (scaled up 2x) this week.
Initiated at 17940, went down 600 pts, then up 400 pts and then today's price action 🫥
Absolutely glad to finish +3% in such a volatile week with non-directional, that too fully hedged
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So, let's summarize overnight volatility (in Nifty points):
Sep:
27: Gap down: 30pts
28: Gap up: 45pts
29: Gap up: 60pts
Oct:
4: Gap down: 82pts
5: Gap up: 85pts
6: Gap up: 76pts
9: Gap down: 114pts
10: Gap up: 53pts
Context: Vix at 10.5 with low premiums.
Khelo India Khelo!
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Closed this week's iron condor at +2.2%.
After yesterday's gap up, it was -4%.
Used ratio spreads to manage risk to mitigate gap fill yesterday, reduced overnight risk yesterday.
Would have gladly taken 1% with 650+pt move in Nifty with low premiums and trading non-directional!
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Had some idle funds that I wanted to split between STBT and intraday systems.
When collating data from testing a few STBT systems (1L cap in each), one that stood out was the one adapted from
@mohitsharmadl
's telegram group.
P&L of +29k from 1Lakh deployed in Nov. Very promising!
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Booked 50k (~1%) from Nifty weekly iron condors.
Traded across 4 accounts for the first time, so position size was 75% of usual.
Left 0.3% on the table, as R:R wasn't worth the overnight risk. I will also be travelling tomorrow, so didn't make sense to take that risk.
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Finvasia is like the last min fellow who doesn't study the whole year and starts in the morning and studies until you need enter the exam hall.
@FINVASIA
@ShoonyaApp
Don't wait until 9:15, start preparing earlier for expiry day.
PS: Finvasia and Shoonya down, unable to login.
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P&L for July21: 1.2L on 48L Cap (2.5% ROI).
Closed my positions yesterday when nifty was 15510 😂 and gave up profits of 1.5L as I was busy with work from 10:30AM. Challenge of part-time option trading.
Thought this month would be another 5% month, but happy to close in green
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Don't want to search through my timeline but still want the strategy?
Then:
1. Follow, retweet and DM.
2. Comment and suggest filters to add to improve this.
I will test out the top 3 suggestions based on likes. So, if you like someone else's idea, like their comment too.
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Booked +56k (+1.1%) for this week.
Max risk in case of circuit: -8%.
Risk with 2% overnight gap on either side: -1%.
Reason: Working on automating strategies. So been punting with 30% size, inspired by
@BandiShreyas
. There is something about peaceful money, as he calls it.
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@HyderabadiChic3
I'm on the other side of this. As soon as my kid was born, came back to India so that my parents could spend time with my kid. I have added a few extra years to my parents lifespan just by being with the kid and the kid grows up with better social skills. Individual priorities!
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Option buying weekly update: 20 to 25Sep
Mon: -1543
Tue: -1453
Wed: -1870
Thu: +10563
Fri: -2358
Overall P&L = +3.3K. Used Capital is 50K cash.
A lot of my loses are similar. Because after 3 losing trades, I stop trading for that day.
Risk management is key in this setup
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@jitendrajain
@SarangSood
Aye, but if I can predict how Sarang bhai works as chief guest.
Conclave will start at 9:20, but
@SarangSood
will wait outside for most of the time for perfect entry.
Then he'll enter only when participants get agitated and volatile, and exit as soon as everyone calms down. 😜
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Booked 67k (~1.3% of total capital) from my weekly iron condors in Nifty.
Used only half my capital until yesterday.
My total risk overlay was only 5% for the whole week, even in case of a circuit.
Slow and steady until the budget.
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Feb closed at +1%.
I see a shift in the way how my iron condors are traded, I give up a lot of profits in the current intraday volatility. Either I have become more conservative or this IV-RV spread is difficult to manage.
Think it's a bit of both, but need to adapt quickly.
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Great analysis from
@kirubaakaran
.
Great points. It's important to also note factors that cause increase in contracts traded but don't add risk.
1. Margin benefit introduction: Due to margin benefit, for every sell, there is a buy leg too, 100x increase just because of this.
1/n
The number of option sellers in Indian markets who trades with weekly options of Nifty, Bank Nifty and even FinNifty has increases exponentially. Can they cause a risk to our market? Will these option sellers bring down the market and cause a huge risk? Here's the detailed thread
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Hope you found this useful and if so feel free to share.
This will help reduce work to input expiry date etc. everyday.
Next, I will share how to "get days to expiry" and why it is useful to automate that.
Disclaimer: Not professionally written, sharing my amateur code.
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A positive option buying day after a long time.
Indicators: RSI, OI and Volume.
Trading with 1 lot of Nifty and 1 lot of Banknifty
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Answering a few questions I received:
1. Which platform
This was a custom python code used. I don't think there are any platforms that work on option charts/indicators.
2. Where to learn:
Courses in udemy for backtesting using Python, some as cheap as 500rs. But will take time.
Subhashish Pani is a super profitable trader.
But is his publicly shared 5EMA strategy profitable?
Let's test it:
Basic setup:
5EMA on 5min for short
Close > 5EMA is the trigger
Entry = Close
SL = High of signal candle
Target: No Target
We'll start with short signals first.
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If you feel like your confidence is tested and self-doubt creeping in, you are not alone.
Past few months have been challenging, monetarily and psychologically in the markets.
Had to re-evaluate my performance and re-think if its worth it.
ROC:
FY: 5.31%
Q1: 7.25%
Q2: -1.94%
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Using unsecured loans between family members is something not a lot of traders would disclose. Thanks for a candid share!
1/ Unsecured Loans:
Above 50 lakh profit in individuals, you are liable to pay a surcharge which adds to your tax burden heavily.
Therefore, you can give your family an unsecured loan and start trading in their trading account to divide the profit among your family members.
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All about iron condor based on my experience.
Iron condor is a safer strategy for beginners but with limited returns.
Iron condor is about selling both OTM call and put, hoping that market stays range bound but buying farther OTM call and put as a hedge for any large moves.
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Booked 43k across two accounts: 2% for this week purely from Iron Condor.
Initiated 1/3 qty each on Monday at 10am, 3pm and Tuesday 10am.
Played more conservatively and did a 200pt hedge instead of 300pt.
Trying to reduce my overall exposure.
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Zerodha varsity has a great article, which can be a good starting point if you wish to learn more. I have linked this below.
Feel free to share/retweet if this was helpful.
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@rithereritnow
See his later video where he stopped trading this strategy because it is not profitable and shows it's performance.
Plus he is testing it on stocks.
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Lot of folks are interested in learning Python for coding and backtesting.
It's a great skill to learn, but a word of caution. This skill won't make you money, it'll make it easier to search and execute.
The first and basic requirement is to have an understanding of the market.
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@AlternateWalter
I would start based on your broker of your choice.
The strategy part is easier compared to the execution engine. I spent 10min on strategy coding and still adding code for broker execution.
If it's zerodha, then srinivasa doosa's YouTube channel was very helpful for me.
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Booked ~90k for the week.
55K from positional Nifty iron condor (1%)
42K from intraday systems in Finnifty (0.8%)
Intraday systems used spare margins from the same accounts where I trade with Nifty iron condor, so ROC is 1.8% for the week.
Manageable spikes/candles in FNF today
5
1
22
Booked 2% with my weekly iron condor in 2 accounts.
Initiated it on Thurs EOD:
200pt upmove
500pt downmove
350 pt upmove
Glad to have managed it to close in green. Planned to close at EOD, but RR from now to EOD isn't great
Also good to 2 days off and focus on Ganpati!
3
2
17
Nifty ATM straddle:
-9:30am: 148
-3:20pm: 147
No decay despite spot being <5 pts between 9:30 and 3:20.
Culprit: ATM IV increasing 10% from 18.6 to 20.5.
How to trade this tomorrow?
1. Play for IV crush very early with tight SL
2. After IV crush, wait for reversals/pauses.
1
1
20
@Ankit_Quant
I agree with all of your other points mentioned in the thread, but not with this one.
Exposure to basics across subjects is essential for kids to realize what their interests are.
The R&D folks at the forefront, who are actually improving our lives ,got started with this.
1
0
20
Booked +1L (~2%) this week.
Good week after all the stress of last week.
Nifty Iron Condor: +1.5%
Nifty Intraday algo: +0.55%
Finnifty Intraday algo: +0.05% (API glitch)
Banknifty: -0.07%
Here is how my intraday unfolded today.
5
0
21
-2.7% for October across my two Iron Condor accounts.
Good run of positive months comes to an end.
Oct 4th is the main culprit with 5% loss that day. Reduced my risk and reward after that, to stabilize so returns were lower.
Hoping for a better November. Happy trading!
1
0
20
Past 1 year Nifty OTM5 strange chart.
Today OTM5 strangle was 83.5 (red dot) (too low).
Previous 5 OTM5 premiums: 110.5, 152, 150, 212.6, 123.75.
Going back to Aug-Oct 2021 vol regime?
Transitions between vol zones are difficult but profitable, Trade carefully!
@SarangSood
?
1
0
19
Booked 1.34L (~1.4%).
77k from IronCondor
57k from Intraday.
First day in more than month, where both intraday algo and iron condors ended in green.
2
0
19