Ian Cundall
@IanCundall
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Director of Scouting - ; @SoxProspects Podcast co-host; University of Michigan and University College London alumnus.
Boston, MA
Joined June 2011
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New on
@SoxProspects
, a deep dive into the Red Sox draft strategy and how it has affected their pitching development. Included within, a breakdown of how Red Sox and every other team have used their draft budget from 2018-23 and more. Full article here:
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Alex Verdugo singling in Jeter Downs to win it in extra's against the Yankees in July 2022 is just what Chaim Bloom envisioned for the future back in February 2020.
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1K
Red Sox 1B prospect Blaze Jordan hit his first professional HR tonight at Jet Blue Park in Fort Myers. With two outs in the 9th, Jordan got fastball and smoked it out to RF for a walk-off, two-run shot.
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1K
Just a reminder, the Red Sox got Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold for one month of Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman.
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The prospect generating the most buzz in the Red Sox system right now is 18-yr old CF Miguel Bleis. He’s hitting .302/.356/.550 in the FCL and his batted ball data is off the charts. Multiple scouts have told me he’s easily the best player in the FCL and a true five tool talent.
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If the Red Sox had got under the luxury tax at the deadline, they would have received picks 70 & 71 in the 2023 Draft for Bogaerts & Eovaldi. Instead they will receive picks 133 & 134. They also miss out on ~$1 million in additional bonus pool money going off 2022 slot values.
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Just a reminder, the Red Sox got Nick Pivetta (and Connor Seabold) for one month of Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman.
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It's early in camp, but that was an encouraging swing from Jarren Duran. He's retooled his swing with a new setup, toe-tap instead of leg kick & starting his hands in a hitting position rather than bringing them back/up during his load. Looks quicker & more direct to the ball.
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Trevor Story just hit a hanging 3-2 CB over the left field wall for a home run. 82 mph breaking ball that was left up and he did what good hitters do to that pitch.
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578
Red Sox LHP Chris Sale allowed a leadoff single then retired the next three hitters in his first rehab start for the FCL. Per a source, fastball sat 93 mph, mixed in his changeup at 85-87. Clean inning, all weak contact. He is coming out for the second inning now.
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Red Sox SS Marcelo Mayer hit his 3rd home run of the FCL season today. He is now hitting .309/.415/.545 in 65 PA and has had multiple hits in three straight games.
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Red Sox 2021 1st round pick Marcelo Mayer is 2-3 so far in the High-A game. 1B to left-center in his first at-bat (video below) and 2B down the left field line in his third at-bat. Both hits off pitchers 3-4 years older than him. Really impressive first look.
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Great win for the Red Sox. This is what it should look like.
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Awesome moment for Jeter Downs there. You can see how much it meant too him. Last two years haven't been the easiest, but he's continued to put the work in and earned a shot in games like this.
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We'll see what happens, but Story would make a lot of sense for the Red Sox. They could slot him in at 2B this year & he's insurance at SS if Bogaerts opts-out. Story's elbow issues are a concern, but his bat could thrive at Fenway. Here's his 2021 spray chart w/Fenway dimensions
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If Trevor Story is out for an extended period of time the Red Sox should strongly consider moving Ceddanne Rafaela to shortstop. He’s a better defender than any of the options in the minors & they have depth in the OF with Duran capable in CF & O’Neill/Abreu for the corners.
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Some thoughts after a week at Red Sox minor league spring training:
1. Mayer is the real deal
2. Casas/Mayer/Yorke is strongest top 3 since 2016 (Moncada/Benintendi/Devers)
3. Group of high-minors arms projected for bullpen is deep, talented
4. DSL/FCL group from '21 is promising
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Roman Anthony was never in the lineup that was posted by Portland tonight. That’s very different than him getting scratched.
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Would have to imagine Jarren Duran makes the Red Sox roster for the Wild Card game. As we saw this year, his speed is a potential game changer on the bases and they have no one else even close to as fast as him, in consideration for a bench role.
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What an outing from Garrett Whitlock. Six outs on 15 pitches, after inheriting a runner on second and no outs, with the top of the Rays order coming up. He’s been the one constant in the bullpen all year. Not bad for Rule 5 draftee, who had never pitched above Double-A.
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Quinn Priester is exactly the type of arm Boston should be looking to acquire. Former 1st rd. pick under team control until 2030. SP build, throws strikes & generates GBs. 5-pitch mix: 4s, sinker, SL, CB, CH. Would expect the Sox to tweak his arsenal & play more to his strengths.
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The Red Sox are well positioned for the ban of the shift with Trevor Story at 2B. He has highest outs above average when ranging to his left among 2B in all of baseball and the range and athleticism to handle the additional ground he will have to cover next year.
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We saw the importance of the Red Sox getting healthy Garrett Whitlock back tonight. He gives Cora another arm he can trust in the late innings and allows Schreiber to be deployed earlier in games. They are still an arm short out there in my opinion, but things are getting better.
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Red Sox select OF Braden Montgomery out of Texas A&M with their 1st round pick (12th overall). Montgomery has huge power & arm strength, but questions w/his hit tool. Switch-hitter, but is better as a LHH. 2024: 295 PA, .322/.454/.733, 27 HR.
Draft ranks: MLB 8/BA 7/ESPN 9
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Like the Kyle Teel pick in 2023, the Red Sox sat back & saw a top-10 talent fall to them. Montgomery has questions w/his hit tool, but his power potential is tantalizing. He injured his ankle on a slide during the CWS, so might have to wait until next year for his system debut.
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Red Sox SS Marcelo Mayer just lined a first pitch changeup for a HR. Middle-in & he effortlessly drove it out to right-center. Mayer has been relatively quiet this week on offense, but I’ve been very impressed with his defense. He checks all the boxes you look for in a SS.
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Here's the return for Christian Vazquez: Enmanuel Valdez has played 1B/2B/3B/LF/RF and is hitting .327/.410/.606 w/21 HR in 378 PA across AA and AAA. Wilyer Abreu has played all three OF spots and is hitting .249/.399/.459 with 15 HR and 23 SB in 411 PA in AA.
Going to the Red Sox in the Vazquez deal, per sources: Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu.
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I was expecting Roman Anthony to standout this week & he’s exceeded my expectations. The quality of his ABs are remarkable, especially for his age & he’s shown feel for hit & power to all fields. He’s also been excellent in CF. Great instincts, plus range. He makes it look easy.
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That might have been Rafaela’s best swing of the season and it couldn’t have come at a better time.
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Red Sox first base prospect Triston Casas just gave the USA a 2-0 in their Olympic knockout game vs. the Domincan Republic with a long HR to CF off a changeup that stayed up. He hit it off another Red Sox prospect, RHP Denyi Reyes. This was Casas's third HR of the Olympics.
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Jarren Duran just hit his second HR of the game. FB away which he went with to LF. Really nice swing there, as he let the ball get deep and kept his hands back, before exploding through the ball. Very impressive all fields power display, from the Red Sox prospect tonight.
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Red Sox LHP Jay Groome is having the best stretch of his pro career right now. He's pitched into the 6th inning in each of his last 3 starts & recorded 16 whiffs in each of them. Since May 22nd in 8 starts: 39.2 IP, 29 H (5 HR), 16 ER, 16 BB:55 K. Opponents hitting .201/.282/.333
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If Jarren Duran is headed for an everyday role in the outfield, then that pushes Kiké Hernández back into the infield, primarily at 2B. Because of that, I wonder if the Red Sox look to get Arroyo some reps at 1B, to see if that’s an option, to get him in the lineup as well.
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In his first game with Low-A Salem, Red Sox prospect Blaze Jordan just homered in the top of the 9th. 1-0 pitch up in the zone, which he turned on and drove out to left field. Jordan went 1-4 with that home run and strikeout in his debut.
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Jarren Duran's final spring line: .340/.367/.702. No surprise, but when talking to scouts about who has impressed for the Red Sox, he is one of the first names that comes up. The work he put in w/his swing & in the weight room has really paid off & translated on field this spring
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Rough way to end things, but this was a very positive season for the Red Sox at the major league and minor league level. If they continue on the path they are on, they will have an organization that will be sustainable and competitive for a many years to come.
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The numbers didn’t show it, but there was a noticeable improvement in the quality of Jarren Duran’s at-bats prior to his call up. He was getting to pitches he couldn’t last year & his swing decisions really improved. It’s early, but the changes he’s made are very promising.
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Looking back at the trade deadline, the Red Sox turned 13 IP of Workman (6.92 era/2.46 whip), 9.1 IP of Hembree (12.54 era/2.36 whip), 73 PAs of Moreland (.609 OPS) & 97 PAs of Pillar (.801 OPS) into Nick Pivetta & the
#11
,
#12
,
#15
, &
#20
prospects in the
@SoxProspects
rankings.
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Red Sox select 3B/OF D’Angelo Ortiz with their 19th round pick (567th overall). Son of Red Sox legend David Ortiz. 6-foot-1, 190 pound right-handed hitter. Played for Miami Dade College this spring: 204 PA, .377/.467/.434, 29 BB:21 K.
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I’ve heard from multiple sources that OF Gilberto Jimenez was the top player at Red Sox instructs, followed by Triston Casas. Jimenez has filled out considerably and is now built like a running back. He’s still an elite athlete, but has started to drive the ball at the plate.
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Jarren Duran just crushed a 93 mph fastball on the inner half for a long home run to right center field. Have to think it’s only a matter of time before he gets another shot in Boston with the way he’s hitting right now.
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Red Sox prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has a HR and 2B through his first two at bats tonight for Portland. It’s still the top of the 1st inning.
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The Red Sox top international FA signing from the 2021 class, OF Miguel Bleis, is off to a great start in the DSL. Through 10 games, he’s 9 for 23 w/3 2B, 1 HR, 3 SB & 2 BB:2 K. Triple slash: 391/.462/.652. Scout feedback I’m getting has been very positive: “He’s the real deal.”
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Here's a summary of what I'm hearing from scouts on Enmanuel Valdez & Wilyer Abreu - For a 2 month rental that is about the best you can hope for. Valdez is a bat first guy w/no defensive home. Could hit his way to the majors. Abreu is a nice flier. Toolsy, but raw. Likely a COF.
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Alex Binelas is a intriguing acquisition for the Red Sox. The Louisville 3B was seen as a potential 1st rd. pick heading into the 2021 Draft, but he struggled early in the college season & fell to the 3rd rd. In pro ball, he hit .309/.390/.583 w/9 HR in 159 PA, 24.5% K & 10.6% BB
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Really interesting interview w/Marcelo Mayer by
@bradfo
here: . Mayer reveals his shoulder injury occurred 5/7. Here are his splits before & after that date:
4/6-5/7: 111 PA, .337/.414/.582, 15 XBH, 21.6K%
5/14-8/2: 243 PA, .190/.256/.366, 19 XBH, 25.5K%
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Kristian Campbell just annihilated a 94 mph fastball middle-down for a HR to left-center. 431 feet and 108.3 mph. His adjustment to AAA has gone seamlessly so far.
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If the Red Sox are trading Vazquez have to imagine JD Martinez and likely Eovaldi get dealt also. The Red Sox also don't have a catching prospect in the system with everyday potential, so I wonder if that is a position they target in one of these deals.
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The Red Sox had to keep Rafael Devers & to get it done before the season is huge. Bloom said they wanted him here longterm & got it done. Now the contract situation won’t be a cloud over the season & the focus can be on building a contender around Devers for this year & beyond.
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Chris Sale struck out three in his second inning of work. Allowed two more singles, one of which was a bunt. Didn't throw his slider in the 1st inning, but mixed it in in the 2nd. Took him a few pitches to get feel for it, but settled in at 78-79 mph. Got one swinging K on a SL.
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Scouts I’m talking to really like the Seabold acquisition for the Red Sox. He is someone who’s under the radar, but whose stock is on the rise. Last year in A+/AA: 56.1 IP, 2.24 era, 1.01 whip with 58 K:11 BB. Dominated the AFL also: 17 IP, 1.06 era, 0.59 whip w/22 K:3 BB.
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Jarren Duran’s defensive progression this year has been fun to watch. Currently, he's in the 75th percentile in OAA & 93rd percentile in OF jumps. Jumps are driving his improvement. He’s reacting faster & he's taking better routes, though he still has room for improvement there.
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The Red Sox have 18 G in 18 days and their next four series are against the Yankees & Blue Jays. Both have extremely RHH-heavy lineups. Tanner Houck & his slider are built for these matchups. Makes sense, as we suggested last night, that he’s coming up to bolster the bullpen.
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Red Sox OF prospect Miguel Bleis has been the standout performer of the day so far. Tripled in his first at-bat (video below) and also made a great diving play on a short fly ball in centerfield. Very impressive all around tool set.
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The Padres aren’t picking up Mitch Moreland’s 2021 option, so the Red Sox got Jeisson Rosario and Hudson Potts for 73 plate appearances of Moreland. Now that he’s a free agent, I wonder if the Red Sox will look to bring him back as a left-handed bat to compliment Dalbec.
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The Red Sox should be very thankful the Blue Jays traded Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks. He’s a future star.
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Red Sox LHP Jay Groome had his second straight 9 K start last night. Final line: 5.1 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 83 pitches/49 strikes. Fourth straight start where he's pitched into the 6th inning and very encouragingly, he is getting a lot more comfortable throwing his SL and CH.
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Really like the Mondesi deal for Boston. They bought low on a player with some upside and a low AAV ($3 million) and got a PTBNL for Josh Taylor who is a depth arm at this point. He’s been constantly hurt and his stuff took a step back last year when he was rehabbing.
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This trade is another example of the Red Sox using their financial resources to re-stock the farm system, while also continuing to build out their MLB team. Adding Binelas is like having an additional 3rd rd. pick in this past years draft and Hamilton is also a solid prospect.
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Portland SS Marcelo Mayer had a 2-run 2B (EV: 106 mph) to break the game open tonight. It came on a 96 mph FB, at the end of a great AB where he laid off a pair of sliders down. That’s a pitch he was chasing last year, but this year he’s doing a much better job laying off it.
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The difference in the Red Sox pitching depth right now, compared to opening day last year, is remarkable. The first image is from 2020 and the second is from today. Now, for all roles, they have several viable replacements who they can feel confident calling on if necessary.
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Luis Urias is an interesting buy low by the Red Sox. He was 2+ WAR player each of the last two years with a wRC+ of 112 and 110. He takes walks and has power. Could be a potential everyday option at 2B either later this year or next if he can find his previous form.
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Chris Sale struck out two more and allowed a double in his third and final inning. Final line: 3 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K. Fastball topped out at 94 and mixed in both his slider and changeup. Feel for secondaries improved as he threw them more. Mostly weak contact against.
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For the year, Red Sox 1B Bobby Dalbec is hitting .154/.211/.246. He's the type of player where less could be more. Play him primarily against LHP and limit his exposure against RHP. I still think he could be a useable MLB player, but not in the everyday role he is currently in.
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In his Triple-A debut, Brayan Bello got 10 swinging strikes with his fastball. Most of them were on his two-seam, a pitch that has really improved this year. Check out the movement on this 96 mph fastball, which was his 95th and final pitch of the game.
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Scouts I’ve talked to really like the deal for Boston. They think Bleier is a solid second lefty, whose skillset is a better fit on the Red Sox roster than Barnes’ and comes at a lower salary. They also like that Bleier already has experience pitching in the AL East.
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@redsoxstats
Febles and Devers also are close and have known each other for years, dating back to when Devers was in the minors and Febles was coaching down there. If anyone should be knows how to handle Devers it’s Febles.
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Miguel Bleis looks noticeably stronger than last year and has put two really good swings on pitches from Twins starter Chris Paddack. In his first AB he lined out to second and then in his second he got a fastball and crushed it out to left center for a HR.
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Jarren Duran’s speed adds another element to the Red Sox lineup. He’s the fastest everyday player they’ve had in years & has the ability to dramatically impact a game on the bases. Not sure there’s another Red Sox who scores as easily as he did on that shallow line drive to LF.
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Red Sox RHP Frank German in Portland this year: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 15 K with a 20% swinging strike rate. Fastball sits 96-98 T99 & shows two bat missing secondaries, a splitter 84-87 & slider 81-86. Here's video of him striking out Brett Baty, one of the Mets top prospects.
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When the Red Sox selected Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft his primary secondary was his slider. After a few outings this spring, scouts were telling me his changeup had surpassed it & now looked like a potential plus pitch. Today he's featuring only sinker/change and dominating.
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Franchy Cordero so far: .296/.378/.535, 12.2% BB, 28% K (82PA). Against RHP .304/.411/.587 (56PA). Platooning him & Dalbec puts both in the best position to succeed by playing to their strengths. With the lack of production the Red Sox were getting at 1B it was time for a change.
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Nothing can happen until the lockout ends, but I would be surprised if the Red Sox went into the season w/Bradley starting in CF. This deal was about getting the prospects, along w/a useable MLB piece. Whether it be Suzuki, Schwarber or someone else, there are more moves coming.
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Red Sox OF Roman Anthony has seen 24 pitches in 4 AB (it’s the 5th inning) & is 1-2, 2B, 2 BB, 1 K. Below, he put a great swing on a 3-2 FB for a 2B. The ability to drive the ball to all fields he showed in Greenville has continued in Portland as has his impressive defense in CF.
5
19
211
Really like the Schreiber-Sandlin swap for Boston. Schreiber was excellent in 2022, but regressed last year & they have other RHP reliever depth options (Campbell, Kelly, Weissert etc.) w/more team control. To get a potential SP prospect with upside is a tidy piece of business.
3
22
211
Red Sox 1st rd. pick Kyle Teel carries himself like a big leaguer already. He’s always engaged w/the game & in the right position to help his team. At the plate: advanced approach, feel for contact & some pop. He’s also athletic for a catcher w/a plus arm & solid receiving skills
1
20
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Initial feedback from scouts on new Red Sox 2B Vaughn Grissom: Athletic, good frame. Patient approach, makes consistent contact. Fringy power potential, but could find more given his frame. Concerns about his bat speed & ability to impact the baseball, especially against velo.
6
28
204
Worcester 2B Vaughn Grissom just turned on a 92 mph FB and crushed it out to left field off the scoreboard. 405 feet at 107.8 mph. Best swing I’ve seen from him this year. Small sample, but since 8/25: 55 PA, .405/.527/.571, 12 BB/7 K (doesn’t include tonight’s HR either).
5
12
208
Red Sox OF Miguel Bleis's raw tools are remarkable and they are already translating on field. He's aggressive hunting fastballs and rarely misses them in the zone. Most impressively, his hard hit rate and exit velocities are near the top of the system even as an 18-year-old.
4
26
202
Roman Anthony is hitting .333/.460/.804 w/6 HR, 12 BB:14 K since his promotion to Greenville. Small sample size applies, but his underlying metrics have improved across the board there. He's hitting the ball harder & has lowered his GB%, without sacrificing any plate discipline.
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Red Sox LHP Brennan Bernardino since June 1st (15 appearances): 18.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 22 K.
Another great waiver find by the Red Sox front office, who has since been elevated by the pitching development team.
3
10
200
Since June 1st, Nick Yorke is hitting .370/.462/.611 w/12 2B, 4 3B & 10 HR in 249 PA. In that stretch, he has 31 BB & only 26 K. Yorke’s plate discipline & bat-to-ball skills have really impressed scouts. As the season has gone on, he’s pulling the ball harder & in the air more.
3
28
198
I wouldn't be surprised if any member of the Red Sox bullpen save for Whitlock is available right now. The Cubs dealt Scott Effross, who is under control through 2028, for a close to MLB ready SP. Moving Houck for a similar prospect at a position of need could make a lot of sense
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7
200
The Red Sox currently have 39 players on their 40-man roster. Moving Paxton to the 60-day DL creates one spot & they could potentially do the same w/Mata for another. They seem likely to add at least 4-5 more MLB players, so some 40-man movement is coming beyond those moves.
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27
194
Noah Song tonight in Greenville: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K. 71 p/37 s. FB, SL, CH, CB. Mostly FB 89-93 & SL 80-84. Delivery is a work in progress which is understandable given time off. Arm gets out of sync & inconsistent release point, but he executed when needed w/runners on.
4
12
195
Just a theory, but I wonder if Vazquez was traded because the Red Sox didn't plan to offer him a QO in the offseason & thus wanted to get something in case he didn't re-sign. Martinez & Eovaldi are likely to get the QO so they will still be able to recoup something if they leave.
24
9
194
I don’t see how Michael Chavis makes any sense on the Red Sox opening day roster as currently constructed. Hernandez & Renfroe can cover all the positions he plays & are also RHH. Chavis only has 103 career Triple-A at-bats so some time in the minors might not be the worst thing.
14
13
191
Chris Sale might not be the only reinforcement coming to the Red Sox rotation. If Connor Seabold can build off this start, he’s another to watch should the Red Sox look to make a change before the end of the season.
11
19
193
Red Sox LHP Jay Groome was 92-96 mph and topped out at 97 in his inning today. His velocity trailed off as the inning went on. Mixed in his CB at 78-81, CH at 83-85 and SL at 88. Improved stuff than what he showed at instructs. Final line: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.
2
20
187
Triston Casas’s bat gets most of the attention, but don’t sleep on his defense. He’s got good footwork around the base & his length allows him to cut the distance on throws w/how far he can stretch. He’s also very comfortable scooping throws in the dirt. Potential plus defender.
4
10
190
Dealing Cutter Coffey for an MLB upgrade makes sense for Boston. He is behind other IF in the system & has hit tool questions. Power is legit & subtle changes seemed to unlock things in June, but he’s struggled again in July.
June: 92 PA .300/.391/.638
ROS: 179 PA .206/.285/.375
9
21
193
I wonder if the Red Sox would consider using an opener for Houck, now that they have three lefties in the bullpen. They could start Bernardino/Rodriguez for two innings & then bring in Houck for 3-4 innings. That’s the longest he should be going if you want to maximize his value.
20
18
190
Very interested to see what Red Sox RHP Luis Perales looks like in Salem. 2022 in the FCL: 25 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 9 BB, 34 K. Scout recently told me he was the best pitcher in the entire FCL. Athletic, loose. FB works 96-98 & will flash above-average to plus breaking ball & changeup.
4
15
184
The Red Sox have built a sizable group of interesting arms in the low minors & it's encouraging how many have taken a step forward as the season has gone on. Below are the pitching lines of some of these players since May 10th. A few commonalities: lots of strikeouts, low BA/SLG.
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The White Sox DFA’d Frank German today. He’s struggled in Triple-A, putting up a 7.15 ERA & 2.47 WHIP. Full line: 11.1 IP, 19 H, 9 R, 4 ER, 9 BB, 16 K. The Red Sox received RHP Theo Denlinger in return for German & he has a 0.87 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 13 K:1 BB in 10.1 IP with Portland.
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After a slow start to his professional career, Red Sox prospect Blaze Jordan is heating up as of late. He went 2/4 today with a 3B & HR & currently has a five game hitting streak going. He is hitting .318/.333/.682 during the stretch & has all five of his XBH & both of his HR.
3
10
182
Well this is interesting. When the Red Sox traded Renfroe they clearly had a target in mind for RF. Suzuki checks a lot of boxes for what they likely are looking for in that spot.
7
14
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Here's a good look at Triston Casas's 477-foot home run from today's
@WooSox
game. Included within: normal speed, slow-motion of his swing and of course his bat flip. Full scouting report here:
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