Mark Pyruz
@INTELonIRAN
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• Observing Iran military security + region-related developments • Military history image interpretation & analysis UOI archive:
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🇮🇷 Iran 7-day protest demonstration summary for 24-30 AUG 2024, compiled from visual evidence
Results:
#️⃣ Total number of individuals observed protesting: ~3205
#️⃣ Total number of distinct protest sites: 66
🗒️ Data 🔢 Stats 📊 7-day turnout charts ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/6 ⬇️
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@websterkaroon
I was there 1975-76.
Much popular resentment over:
• Foreign installed ruler
• Ruler/family excesses
• Western cultural shifts
• Poverty (Tehran had a large visible shanty)
• Large American presence, much of it military
• Regime unreliability, heavy handed security
More.
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@wendyrsherman
Americans like me seeking solution to Iran nuclear dispute were initially skeptical of Ms. Sherman, mistakenly focused on a non-related aspect of her past. However, during JCPOA negotiation/signage, we came away filled with respect and even pride towards critical role she played.
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🗓️ Day 23, Mahsa Amini protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
08 OCT: ~3526 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Resurgent 3rd wave for protest demonstrations
• 2nd highest total for protest period
📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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@ArmchairW
Iranian arms industry modified M47 from ten years ago, project name Sabalan (named after an inactive volcano) ⬇️
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Cont.
🚨 FARAJA Special Forces deployment at Tehran
📌 Location: Valiasr near Engelab St (35.701744, 51.405356)
✏️ Security alert in response to online campaign for Bazaar, shopping center protesting
🛰️ Imagery 🎞️ Video stills ⬇️
🧵 Thread 3/3 ⬆️
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@AmirToumaj
CENTCOM imagery of IRGC-N Gashti craft and crew— interesting details:
- Crew wearing Hi-Viz life preserver survival vests.
- Uniforms include what may be IRGC insignia (see insets).
Observation: Unusual details, given presumption for mission deniability.
Will IRI exhibit UXO?
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🔢 Estimation of crowd size for Saqqez mourning march: 10,800+
🗓️ Event date: 26 OCT 2022
📌 Camera locations:
Red: LOSs to NE and SW from overpass at 36.211057, 46.229322
Green: Outlet junction at 36.205993, 46.219779
🛰️ Imagery 🎞️Video stills📏Peds/distance⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3⬇️
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan embassy shooting at Tehran, first responders:
A) FARAJA police conscripts (one wearing body armor)
B) Three FARAJA police NCOs with conscript
C) FARAJA Prevention Police CPT
D) Emergency Medical Services EMTs
📌 Location: 35.767097, 51.454266
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🗓️ Day 41, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
26 OCT: ~7541 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Note: total does not include Saqqez cemetery march— visuals still being analyzed and will further update
📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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This appears to be a terror campaign with the following intent:
• Generate a Mahsa Amini like emotional response, street mobilization
• Undermine the authority and credibility of security services
• Divert security resources away from anti-establishment focus
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🗓️ Day 63, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
17 NOV: ~2851 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Protest mourners, related unrest 44% of total
• Aban remembrance daily turnouts >75% higher than current period mean (avg)
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 90, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
14 DEC: ~56 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Lowest total of current protest period
• Most entries acts of arson & protest shouts from buildings
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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1/5 ANALYSIS of peak headcounts for street protests in Iran, 12-WEEK PERIOD from 21 MARCH to 12 JUNE 2019, observed from unverified imagery sources.
See attachments:
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
04 JAN: 0 ⬅️ (tentative)
• No credible visual evidence emerged of public protest demonstration
• Rare zero occurrence, stretching back years prior to 16SEP
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 65, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
19 NOV: ~2835 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Fifth consecutive day of elevated headcount totals with a mean (avg) of ~3331, nearly equalling 19-23SEP figure of ~3467
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 97, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
21 DEC: ~71 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Low total for Day 3 of organized nationwide protest call
• 8 incidents of street demonstration, each under 10 participants in size
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
31 DEC: ~807 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 81% of total: Kurdish mourning-related incidents at Javanrud
• Security use of lethal force
• Street resistance & looting
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 68, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
22 NOV: ~604 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 15-21 NOV elevated protest span— initiated by Aban remembrance & extended with mourning, Kurd unrest— appears to run its course
📊Line chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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"Iran also maintains a security apparatus capable of handling such matters..." ⬇️
There's a flaw in this logic.
IRI has been incapable of halting the months-long arson campaign, which features a similar frequency/scope— how are we to expect a superior effort towards poisonings?
Iranian officials have demonstrated that they possess the technological capabilities to identify unveiled women, but are unable or unwilling
to identify poisoners at securitized schools. (6/6)
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@barbaraslavin1
@SinaToossi
Back in 1975 when I had the opportunity to study in Iran, I encountered social awkwardness in being American but physically resembling Iranian folk. It was Iranian jewish students that included me into their social circle and where I gained acceptance. Will never forget that.
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@pptsapper
When I was in 1st Grade, my 17 year-old cousin joined USMC. A year or so later, when promoted to LCpl, he sent his old PFC stripes to me in the mail— all the way from Vietnam. I had Ma sew the stripes on a sweater and took my class picture wearing' 'em. We were sure proud of him.
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
22 APR: ~594 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Return of retired telecom workers protesting over pension-related issues, observed at 13 city locations as permitted for Mondays
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 45, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
30 OCT: ~1389 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 82% of total comprised of university students
• Viewed university turnout minus 20% since 29 OCT warning from IRGC
📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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This is not a long column.
Visible troop strength no more than a company of light infantry.
There are no armored vehicles or heavy weapons.
From visual evidence observed so far, this is a light footprint of IRGC-GF dispatched to Mahabad. Suggests an initial go-small approach.
A video obtained by
@IranIntl
shows the long line of military vehicles, equipment and forces deployed by the Islamic Republic to crack down on protesters in the city of Mahabad in western Iran.
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🎥 1st clip:
• IRGC/Basij platoon in technicals, with HMGs and AKM type assault rifles
• Motorbike team element of platoon, equipped with body armor
• FARAJA antiriot team and armored vehicle, with Prevention Police & Traffic Police vehicles
🧵 1/2
This is the kind of weapons the Islamic Republic’s regime is sending into Kurdish towns to be used against unarmed civilians.
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IRINS Fateh ("Conquerer") class diesel-electric coastal submarine (SSC), claimed now in service w/ IRIN.
Indigenous design w/ extended dev. Claimed SLCM-capable, operating at 200 MBSL for up to 5 weeks.
Two further boats reported under construction w/ 10 said expected for class.
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
07 MAR: ~748 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Nearly 30 daytime assemblies, held in response to reported school gassing incidents
• Overall 2nd highest daily turnout of year
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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Images from FARAJA police review at Azadi Square, Tehran, dated 21 Mar 2023:
1) BG Radan and BG2 Mohammadian, Fath Safir parade vehicle
2) Special Unit, antiriot (motorbike)
3) Special Patrol unit
4) Prevention Police
📷 Images ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🎉 Celebrated defeat of IRI football team
#️⃣ Turnout observed from visual evidence
30 NOV: ~1168 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Celebratory street crowds appeared past midnight for match loss of Team Melli
• This is a separete event count from daily protest turnout
🗒️Data⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
16 JAN: ~334 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Natgas shortage generated unrest at Torbat-e-Jam in Razavi Khorasan province
• Protest-related mourning event at Sanandaj
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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IRIAF Northrop (HESA) F-5F Kowsar fighter-bomber, reg. 3-7400 powered by GE J85 (Owj) turbojet engines and featuring updated avionics, locally produced airframe design elements and ejection seats.
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
28 JAN: 0 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Zero result: second weekday occurrence this month
• 5th time in January with a daily total below ten
🗒️ Data sheet 📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 87, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
11 DEC: ~97 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 3rd lowest weekday turnout of current period
• Most entries night covert acts of arson
• Organized calls for protest next day, 12DEC
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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✏️ Please note: I will be taking a medical leave of absence beginning Tues 13 June.
• Protest head count study will be temporarily suspended.
• Resumption planned for near future with all missing dates accounted for.
• Thanks in advance for your patience.
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
16 FEB: ~331 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Call for protest gains virtually same level of respondency as 08 JAN (PS752 remembrance)
• Small incidence of Kurdish unrest
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 81, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
05 DEC: ~803 ⬅️ (tentative)
• First day of 3-day call for protest produces 13% increase in turnout from that of previous, considered failed effort of 24NOV
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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Observed at the 25DEC Iran police (NAJA) graduation ceremony at Amin Police University in Tehran:
A contingent of Chinese law enforcement officers.
Note: This academy has provided training courses for police forces from 16 countries.
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🗓️ Day 71, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
25 NOV: ~1462+ ⬅️ (tentative)
• Baloch unrest 90% of total— nearly all worshipers taking southern egress route from 'Great Mosalla of Zahedan'
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/5 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
28 FEB: ~904 ⬅️(tentative)
• Highest overall daily turnout since 23 DEC
• 3rd consecutive day of different pension-related sectors engaging in organized protest
📊Chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 66, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
20 NOV: ~2336 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 6th consecutive day of elevated turnout with a mean (avg) of ~3165, second only to current period 26-31 OCT figure of 4656+
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 96, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
20 DEC: ~246 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Day 2 of organized nationwide protest call results in 7 observed small groups of street demonstrators, in 2 municipalities
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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@criticalthreats
@TheStudyofWar
Khoy protest entry is from yesterday, 19NOV (check the caption and upload dates).
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
20 JAN: ~652 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Continued Baloch disaffection expressed during Friday egress from Great Mosalla Zahedan, thru gated & fenced stretch of Razi St
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
29 DEC: ~696 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 96% of total from 7 protest-related mourning events
• Mourning event attendance levels considered normative
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 67, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
21 NOV: ~2397 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Kurdish mourning events & related unrest 76% of total
• IRI policy shift wrt lethal force generating higher casualties
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 61, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
15 NOV: ~4579 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 1st day of Aban remembrance protests produces 3rd highest headcount of current protest period
• Dozens of cities/towns affected
📊Bar chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2⬇️
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🗓️ Day 20, Mahsa Amini protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
05 OCT: ~228 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Lowest turnout since 1st day of current protest period
• No evidence of public protest demonstration at universities
📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 82, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
06 DEC: ~571 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 2nd day of organized protest does not result in elevated turnout, suggesting NeighborhoodGroups lack substantial street footprint
📊Line chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3⬇️
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🗓️ Day 83, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
07 DEC: ~882 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Student Day university turnout pushes Day 3 total slightly higher than Day 1
• However university turnout below expectation
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 99, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
23 DEC: ~920 ⬅️ (tentative)
• More demonstration depictions for egress route from Great Mosalla of Zahedan
• Organized call for protests & strikes next day, 24DEC
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
26 FEB: ~359 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Recurred, permitted pension protests at various cities
• Steel worker assemblies at Isfahan & Yazd, latter with demonstrating
📊 Bar chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🇮🇷 Iran public protest demonstration summary, for 7-day period 07-13 January 2023— compiled from visual evidence
Results:
#️⃣ Total number of individuals observed protesting: ~1188
#️⃣ Total number of protest sites or groups: 59
🗒️ Data 🔢Stats 📊 7-day chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 73, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
27 NOV: ~198 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Lowest daily turnout since 07 OCT
• Half the entries consist of unverified slogan shouts from bldgs & individual acts of arson
📊Line chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 69, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
23NOV: ~484 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Turnout dipped further despite two moderately attended mourning events with protesting
• Organized calls for protesting 24-26NOV
📊Line chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
03 FEB: ~558 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Possibly reduced attendance at Great Mosalla Zahedan
• Further incidence of Kurdish unrest, this time at Sanandaj
🗺️ Incident map ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
08 JAN: ~439 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Protest call results in a few dozen small groups of demonstrators, the largest in size observed at ~30 protesters
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 62, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
16 NOV: ~3128 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 2nd day of Aban remembrance protests produces consecutive 3000+ turnouts— the last time this occurred was in September
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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Cont.
🟫 IRGC established city entry checkpoints at Zahedan
🗓️ 19 Jan 2023
📌 Sardaran Shahid HWY (29.5014, 60.8220)
• IRI measures suggest elevated threat level, possible security policy shift
• Fri worshiper exit from Great Mosalla Zahedan may not be routine
🧵Thread 3/3⏹️
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🗓️ Day 51, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
05 NOV: ~781 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Lowest Saturday turnout of current protest period
• Lowest university student turnout on a school-day since 19 OCT
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 89, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
13 DEC: ~363 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Kurdish past midnight protest over detainee at Javanrud— called for thru mosque network
• However no carryover to day/eve
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🇮🇷 Iran protest demonstration summary for 7-day period 21-27 Jan 2023, compiled from visual evidence
Results:
#️⃣ Total number of individuals observed protesting: ~1183
#️⃣ Mean(Avg) daily protester turnout: ~175
#️⃣ Total number of protest sites: 42 (43)
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/5 ⬇️
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🗯️ Natgas shortage-related unrest at 2 locations in Torbat-e Jam
🚨 FARAJA / IRGC officers at incident location RED:
📌 Governorate bldg (35.2476, 60.6100)
🚨 FARAJA Prevention & Traffic Police deployed to incident location AMBER:
📌 Red Crescent compound (35.2362, 60.6245)
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Cont.
• Visual evidence emerged of IRGC taking possession of vacated resistance position at Javanrud, and scattering local opposition
• Identified as elements of 29th 'Nabi Akram' Division from Kermanshah; POV suggests IRGC source video
🎞️Video stills ⬇️
🧵Thread 3/3 ⬆️
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1/ 🚨 FARAJA antiriot forces deployed 17SEP at Saqqez, in response to protests & rioting over a fatality in Tehran during custody of Guidance Patrol. Special & Relief Units observed. Evidence of RCAs, paint markers & less lethal firearm discharges.
📌 36.235724, 46.264041
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Cont.
• Small groups of protesters attempted piecemeal to converge on Azadi Square but lacking near sufficient mass & coordination, did not appear to pose a serious bid at breaching IRI security outer perimeter or occupying protest positions in meaningful numbers
🧵Thread 3/3⬆️
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🗓️ Day 78, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
02 DEC: ~1111 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Routine Baloch unrest during Friday departure from Great Mosalla of Zahedan
• Three mourning events without incident
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
11 JAN: 5 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Day's turnout comprised a woman shouting in protest atop a highway overpass, an act of arson, and what may have been a lobbed IED
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
26 DEC: ~477 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Four mourning events 92% of total
• Likely permitted, small land dispute protest at Tehran— further suggestive of pre-16SEP
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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IRGC-ASF Saegheh ("Thunderbolt") UCAV of jet-powered type; claimed fitted w/ Sadid-type PGMs for operational use during retaliatory strike against ISIL.
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🗓️ Day 95, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
19 DEC: ~741 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Organized nationwide protest call results in 14 observed small groups of demonstrators
• Two mourner events comprise 48% of total
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
2
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🗓️ Day 94, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
18 DEC: ~15 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Protest demonstration turnout hits rock-bottom
• Organized calls for protests & strikes next day, 19-21DEC
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
2
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
06 JAN: ~474 ⬅️(tentative)
• Reduced view evidence for Friday protesting at Zahedan
• 06 JAN social media call for protests results in nil turnout
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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Cont.
• Although in a decreasing trend, seeing if momentum carries for daily turnouts to continue above current period mean avg (~1624)
• Organized calls for protest extension
• IRI security continues to be targeted, sustaining 6 KIAs
🗒️ Data 📊 Bar charts ⬇️
🧵 Thread 2/2 ⬆️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
19 JAN: ~213 ⬅️ (tentative)
• External social media calls to protest & strike on 19-20 JAN result in zero, first day participation
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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This image is being falsely disseminated as a recruitment banner for high school "informants".
It is actually an employment notice for police special forces in Isfahan province.
Curiously it contains the old logo inscription & acronym for IRI police: NAJA. Current use is FARAJA.
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Cont.
• IRI approach to Kurdish unrest may be shifting to COIN
• At Mahabad, IRI deployed contingent of IRGC-GF light infantry in technicals (similar to Baloch unrest), FARAJA Special Forces including possibly NOPO, local Basij, with reportedly support from VAJA
🧵Thread 3/3⬆️
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🗓️ Day 72, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
26 NOV: ~691 ⬅️ (tentative)
• First day of workweek reflects 57% decrease in daily protest turnout from current period mean (avg): ~1629
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
06 MAR: ~256 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Retired telecom workers turned out for permitted weekly protests over pension issues— retirees at Urmia waving pro-IRI flags
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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@rgpoulussen
⚔️ Battle for Caen
🗓️ Date: 09 July 1944
📌 Location: 49.185240, -0.359259
🛰️ Imagery 📷 Historical, Current Photo ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 84, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
08 DEC: ~438 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 5 mourner events, with evidence of extensive IRI security measures
• No carryover effect from 05-07DEC organized events
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
30 DEC: ~591 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 82% of total: egress route from Grand Mosalla of Zahedan
• Less protest evidence, pos. related to tone of Shaikh Abdol-Hamid
📊Chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
30 JAN: ~313 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Recurred, organized protests by retired Telecom workers
• Like previous week, half the assembly sites did not demonstrate
🗒️ Data 📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 40, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
25 OCT: ~1298 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Sustained levels of student protests render an elevated trend line — generating momentum towards called-for, next day protests
📊Line chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2⬇️
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🇮🇷 Iran protest demonstration summary for 7-day period 14-20 Jan 2023, compiled from visual evidence
Results:
#️⃣ Total number of individuals observed protesting: ~1821
#️⃣ Total number of protest sites: 49
🗒️ Data 🔢 Stats 📊 7-day chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
01 FEB: ~98 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Recurred, small demonstration over condemned convicts (non-protester related) at Tehran
• Incidence of Kurdish unrest at Abdanan
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 24, Mahsa Amini protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
09 OCT: ~902 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Sharper fall in turnout (-74%) than previous highs
• Universities comprise 63% of day's turnout
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 91, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
15 DEC: ~51 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Consecutive lowest total for current protest period
• Arrestee bail release celebration at Abdanan included in total
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 79, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
03 DEC: ~176 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Notably low turnout for first day of a work/school week
• Relatively high number of misrepresented videos detected
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 47, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
01 NOV: ~911 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Less public demonstration participation at universities produced total below 1000, possibly signalling another decreasing trend
📊Bar chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3⬇️
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🗓️ Day 80, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
04 DEC: ~72 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 2nd lowest daily turnout of current protest period
• Organized call for protests next three days, 05-07DEC
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Protest demonstrations & rioting in Iran 🔥
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
17 JAN: ~476 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Representative petro workers staged demos over longstanding non-implementation of "Article 10" pertaining to salaries/benefits
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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Imagery of successful Iran IRGC missile strike on 08SEP2018, using Fatah-110 series tactical SRBMs. Target: Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP) HQ at Koya, Iraq.
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🗓️ Day 93, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
17 DEC: ~434 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Groups of oil sector workers protested, comprising 85% of total
• Oil workers protest issue-specific, suggestive of pre-16SEP
📊 Chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/2 ⬇️
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@oryxspioenkop
Saigon 2.0 in preparation for Third Indochina War 2.0
(folks tend to forget the latter, which was regionally significant with enduring ramifications)
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🗓️Day 77, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
01 DEC: ~216 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Routine low protest activity for onset of weekend
• Baloch unrest expected for next day
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗯️ Public protest demonstrations in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
03 MAR: ~253 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Further reduced crowd density from Great Mosalla Zahedan and less observed protest demonstrating
• Aggressive IRI security presence
📊Chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/4 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 48, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
02 NOV: ~908 ⬅️ (tentative)
• Continued reduction in university participation but numbers compensated by mourning events and street protests
📊 Line chart ⬇️
🧵 Thread 1/3 ⬇️
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🗓️ Day 21, Mahsa Amini protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣ Daily turnout observed from visual evidence:
06 OCT: ~92 ⬅️(tentative)
• Lowest turnout for current protest period
• Ongoing Iran holiday weekend may be disruptive to remaining protest momentum
📊Line chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/2⬇️
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🗓️Day 76, MA protests/rioting in Iran
#️⃣Daily turnout observed from visual evidence
30NOV: ~402 ⬅️ (tentative)
• 60% of total occurred during early morning celebrations for defeat of IRI football team
• Protest did not carry over to day/evening
📊Line chart⬇️
🧵Thread 1/3⬇️
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