IMFinCEE
@IMFinCEE
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IMF in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Managed by Senior ResRep Geoff Gottlieb and Comms Officer Maciej Onoszko. For more on Europe: @IMFinEurope
Warsaw, Poland
Joined January 2024
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This is
@IMFinCEE
, the IMF’s new account for all things macro in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Here we will share what we are working on and what we are recommending to governments in the region. Comments on tweets are welcome: we want to hear your views.
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Great discussion at
@Economic_Forum_
with
@LBalcerowicz
@mmpiatkowski
on CEE’s growth and challenges.
My fellow panelists disagreed about Poland’s fiscal picture. I was in the middle: current debt levels are not worrisome but current deficit levels are also not sustainable.
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Looking forward to today's panel at
@Economic_Forum_
with
@LBalcerowicz
@mmpiatkowski
, moderated by
@SGHWarsaw
's Piotr Maszczyk.
We'll look at Central and Eastern Europe's impressive growth story in the past two decades and discuss the challenges that await.
Stay tuned!
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
🌍💼 New
#IMF
Report on 🇲🇩Moldova outlines key design considerations for a bank resolution framework, aiming to boost financial stability. A pivotal read for policymakers and stakeholders. 🏦📈
🔗 Read the full report:
@IMFinCEE
@IMFinEurope
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
🌐 IMF’s Deputy Managing Director, Kenji Okamura, and
#NBM
Governor, Anca Dragu (
@dragu_anca
), met on the sidelines of the IMF/WBG Constituency meeting in Chisinau 🇲🇩
@IMFNews
@IMFinEurope
@IMFinCEE
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In Bulgaria, we find that demand shocks contributed to high inflation in recent years. Given lack of independent monetary policy, this suggests fiscal policy should have been tighter to contain inflation and should be managed carefully going forward.
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Fiscal policy should aim to reduce inequality, e.g. via progressive taxation and better means-tested spending. No budget in Europe does less redistribution than Bulgaria’s. Supporting the vulnerable is critical, including for transitioning out of coal.
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Even though BiH's FX reserves are adequate for its currency board, a large interest differential with the euro area encourages banks to place funds abroad. To guard against this, we recommend remunerating excess reserves closer to the ECB rate.
Report:
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Like many countries in the region, BiH has wage increases well above productivity growth. This poses risks to disinflation and competitiveness. Our new report proposes more sustainable ways to stem emigration and increase labor market participation:
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
The IMF and the EU partner to assist countries in strengthening fiscal practices, including through this week's training on using the Tax Assessment Diagnostic Assessment Tool for officials from the Czech Republic, Malta, and the Slovak Republic
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In the last decade, BiH reduced public debt from 45% to 32% of GDP but deficits have now increased and high financing needs (7% of GDP) point to risks. Important to gradually reduce deficits while pivoting from current to capital spending.
Our report:
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Estonian GDP has contracted for nine consecutive quarters as falling productivity growth and higher costs have reduced competitiveness. Targeted policies enhancing labor reallocation and broader digitalization can help reverse this trend.
Read our report:
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
Today in Kyiv, IMF's
@GitaGopinath
,
@NBUkraine
Sergiy Nikolaychuk, and Ukraine Capacity Development Fund (UCDF) Steering Committee Chair
@EertenEsselien
from
@NLinUkraine
welcomed Canada, the European Union, Ireland, Latvia, Poland, and Switzerland as UCDF partners. Thank you!
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
At a meeting in Kyiv today, I congratulated Prime Minister
@Denys_Shmyhal
on Ukraine’s continued economic resilience and strong performance. The authorities’ skillful economic management and progress on reforms have helped ensure public service delivery and macroeconomic
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IMFinCEE Retweeted
During my first visit to Kyiv today, I met with
@NBUkraine_eng
Gov Pyshnyy. We discussed monetary policy and the importance of macro-financial stability. Ukraine's economy has shown remarkable resilience despite high uncertainty and challenging circumstances.
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Good talk at
@IZFiA_
’s Forum Funduszy with
@BJavorcik
@pbujak
@PawelBorys_
@BBGIntelligence
. Thanks to
@Skolimowski
for moderating.
Poland’s great track record with FDI can continue but rising unit labor costs warrant attention, particularly amid growing global fragmentation.
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You can now read our full report on how to strengthen Poland’s fiscal framework:
Recommendations focus on how to:
1⃣ broaden coverage of the fiscal rule
2⃣ refine when it makes sense to deviate from it
3⃣ incorporate multi-year expenditure limits
Great event at
@MF_GOV_PL
, where we and
@WorldBankECA
presented recommendations on how to strengthen Poland’s fiscal framework (fiscal rule and fiscal council).
It is encouraging that the Ministry is moving this forward.
We expect to publish our full report in coming days.
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