Golding
@HelpedHope
Followers
4K
Following
69K
Statuses
23K
VC @Delphi_Digital. Prev: Solana Labs (summer) HelpedHope Founder Marvin L Kay Fellow in Finance @ GeorgeWashingtonU
Mempool
Joined November 2015
Thesis of the Day: Protocols that give something meaningful (such as % of protocol revenue, etc) to users will outlast most other tokens over the long run (see my tweet of the minute here: Example: The community is deciding via @MetaDAOProject whether or not to give 3% of JITO-SOL Tips revenue Jito stakeholders. As crypto gets bigger (think of all the flows from defi, from defAI agents), this will be big. Jito annualized tips will exceed $1B (sometimes hitting $5B at peak), 3% of that is $30mil. OK, $30mil might not be a huge amount to distribute, but what happens as tips grow over the next several years? With the growth of crypto as an industry, defi as a vertical, and defAI as a catalyst, where do you the growth in transaction volumes over a 3, 6, and 10 year period? Yes, you can try to top and bottom tick coins in the meantime. Or you can just find protocols that serve uniquely crypto use cases and will continue to grow over time. I posit on-chain transaction volume (as a category, ignoring chains rn) will grow by 100x over the next 5 years, assuming the next President isn't anti-crypto. How does that translate into Solana defi volume? to Jito usage? Well, assuming no changes to the current REV landscape (this is a very unrealistic assumption, ignores emerging ecosystems etc., but I'm using it for illustrative purposes), based upon @smyyguy 's tweets (: You could see SOL's annualized REV (based off last week's weekly REV.. this isn't a great annualization, but useful for this analysis) hit $4bn, with Jito tips hitting $674.6mm, or ~48%. That's just in one year. 3% of that is $20.238mm in distributions. Assuming a similar growth rate, this distribution rate could hit approx $3.7bn by 2029. Let that sink in. A potential stakeholder distribution rate of $3,698,970,007.86 for calendar year 2029 (slightly above the 100x rate I used earlier in the post). Note: these forecasts are meant to be illustrative and contain a lot of undisclosed assumptions. They are not financial advice. To bring it back to the beginning, and to make it tangible: Over a 5 year period, would you want to get into something that, had it had a distribution mechanism, would have distributed $20.3mil in CY 2024 to potentially $3,698,970,007.86 at the end of Dec. 2029? I know I do. ty to @smyyguy for the data and @mrink0 for proof reading my draft Note: one error in the chart (Twitter won't let me change it). The ratio descriptor should read: "Ratio of Annualized January 6-12 2025 REV : SOL 2024 REV Distro"
Thesis of the Minute part A: Now that crypto is perceived to be lower risk, more and more companies will issues tokens. Many of these will be companies that aren't really crypto native or don't need a token. They hope for deeper liquidity (both from the equity + token fundraise and in the orderbooks). However, just like in traditional markets, over a long enough timeframe (I think <= 3 years), many of these tokens will go to 0 or effectively 0 (low trading volume, low price, plagued by bots instead of long term investors, etc.) In be4 the reply guys: yes this is already happening. It has been happening since 2017+. But the flood gates are now open.
3
2
11
@klarnaseb Integrate squads, raydium, magic eden, blur, and let the good times roll. Happy to chat more
0
0
0
RT @randhindi: FHE rollups are very cheap now. We can do ~20 confidential ERC20 transfers / second on a single GPU ($1.5/h). That amounts t…
0
69
0
RT @JohnEDeaton1: “I was told that there are currently over $100B/year of entitlements payments to individuals with no SSN or even a tempor…
0
118
0
RT @damccormick13: Yes, this is me publicly complaining because I have to spend my Saturday morning dealing with the levels and levels of i…
0
1
0
RT @damccormick13: Amazon is making it almost impossible to succeed for its merchants. - Rising Fees - Zero enforcement against resellers,…
0
4
0
RT @YelenaHaimovici: @Ceo_Branding @kanyewest It doesn’t matter to ye. If he called him Greek, he wouldn’t get as many impressions on x as…
0
3
0
I love that we call the green lil shid for noncrypto things too. We takin over
1
0
0
RT @Teknium1: @teortaxesTex No, OpenAI will have B300s - 100GB more memory, much more fp4 flops
0
1
0
RT @teortaxesTex: There'll be plenty of blackpilling after Orion. We've seen what a cracked lab can do with 2K nerfed chips and it wiped ou…
0
10
0
RT @seanlippel: While this is true, it is also a cautionary tale. DYDX was once the undisputed king with this same market share profile Hyp…
0
2
0
RT @josephdelong: Crazy to me that reducing government spending is even controversial. Like throwing holy water on a demon
0
5
0
RT @0xMert_: my TL is: - Kanye insulting most humans on earth and potentialy launching Hitler coin - Arthur Hayes saying dont be a bitch k…
0
37
0
RT @nic__carter: @kanyewest Kanye the only thing you need to know about crypto is that Ripple is the best one. Thats right it’s spelled X-R…
0
1
0
RT @0xMert_: @kanyewest Hey Kanye, Long time listener, first time writing As a cryptocurrency expert, I would highly recommend cardano f…
0
82
0
RT @mattturck: 1990s: East Coast vs West Coast rappers 2020s: East Coast vs West Coast wrappers
0
6
0