Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA
@HAOHONG_CFA
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2x Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg
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Joined May 2009
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Voted Economist of the Year by Asian Private Banker, 2nd yr in a roll. I’m honored.
再次荣获《亚洲私人银行家》年度最佳经济学家奖，连续两年。思睿集团还获得最佳另类投资等四项大奖。
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感恩的赠礼：在未来两天里，第一位和最后一位点赞或转发的朋友、以及之间的随机随缘选择的八位朋友，我将赠予我的《预测》思睿订制版一本，并亲笔签名。(由于快递限制，暂时只能寄往国内的读者朋友。)
感谢您一直以来的支持和关注🙏
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“正因为他心里明亮，才得以看见这世间阴暗的一面，才知道这世道竟还有龌龊；他之所以谴责，是希望变好；他之所以批判，是希望改变；只有心存光明的人，才愿意去谴责和批判。
谁若无视这社会最底层人民所受的苦难、对社会的各种假丑恶付之以冷漠，谁才最阴暗”。
—《致敬为民生和社会灾难发声的人》
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安倍最后的午餐。人生由命非由他，有酒不飲奈若何。
Abe’s last lunch. Such is life.
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Ex-President Jiang Zemin on his way back from a US state visit, November 1993.
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刘瑜：普通人能做的恶是有限的。平庸的恶乘以权力系数，就会被放大。而且权力有洗脑的能力，是(恶的)放大器，更是扭曲场。
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Ex-Premier Wen Jiabao: the progress of human society is via debates among diff. schools of thoughts … For China to have a truly bright future, we must promote independent & critical thinking… & create a free academic environment for people to seek the truth & meaning of life.
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“我认为现在大部分中国人，60%以上，甚至说99%，不把自己当人看。我们之所以是人，是因为我们有理性、能思考、有自由意志。自由意志包括了要去表达。如果你想说一个话，别人不让你说，你就不说了，这就是你不把自己当人看。” — 张维迎，2014
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互联网创业行业黑话：
智慧城市：路口装摄像头
人工智能：自动回复
大数据分析：收集用户隐私
社区团购：网上买菜，明天小卖部自提
下半场：快不行了
共享经济：分时租赁
连续创业：多次创业失败
联合创始人：老员工
颠覆式创新：捣乱
赋能：拉你一把
发力：烧钱
闭环：自产自销
孵化器：办公室是租的
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COVID Outbreak In Zhengzhou, Henan. Tens of thousands Foxconn workers walking out of factory lockdown, going home bare foot on the Central Plain’s great earth. 在中原的大地上默默行走着…
2022 hasn’t been kind to Henan’s people. Hope they get home safe.
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Ex President Hu Jintao played ping-pong with a few Chinese athletes and beat them hands down.
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黄奇帆与王波明谈中国房地产见顶。我的分析更具体。他混淆了几个指标，但瑕不掩瑜。
Celebrity politician Huang Qifan discussed Chinese property with Caijing Chief Editor Wang Boming. Aging pop, peaking urbanization & living space, large inventory & peak price all spell big trouble.
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I’m opening Grow Investment Group’s HK office. After 25 years of research, I finally cross the road from sell-side to buy-side.
What’s past is prologue.
凡是過往，皆為序章。
彭博社报道链接：
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中国五千年历史时空图。一部狼烟遍野的历史。纵有飞将御边，也难守四夷之世也。
秦时明月汉时关，匣里金刀血未干。
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为什么救中国房地产那么难。
This explains why it’s so hard to save Chinese property.
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蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况：只能做>28纳米；光刻机零件受制；没有国际合作，零机会赶上，且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
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我的研究报告网站 是Wordpress上成长速度最快的金融网站。写了一个多月，四篇报告 (中英文一式两份)，阅读量已近28万。
一个真正的IP是独立的，是无法陨灭的。
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This is the year people will talk about.
This is the year people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.
The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.
- Bertolt Brecht - 1940
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一些你应该知道的马甲：
玉渊谭天：央视新闻
陶然笔记：经济日报
朝阳少侠：外交部
有理儿有面：政法委
侠客岛：人民日报/海外版
补壹刀：人民日报社/环球网
枢密院十号：人民日报社/环球网
牛弹琴：新华社
长安街知事：北京日报
青蜂侠：中国青年网
市说新语：国家市场监督管理局
(请找一下图中🦓)
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“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
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30年前，葛优讲解如何写出更好的文章。中国情景喜剧首秀即天花板。文字是用来解放思想的，而非禁锢。
In China’s 1st sitcom 30 yrs ago, Ge You explained writing for the people, not dictating to them. Chinese sitcom peaked at debut. Words are to set the mind free, not to confine it.
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“新十条”防疫新政：
- 新冠降为乙类传染病
- 不判定密接
- 防控重点转为防重症
- 确诊可居家，不强制去方舱***
- 社会面不再搞核酸
- 分类分诊
- 提高疫苗接种，特别是老人
- 出入、交通全面恢复
- 方舱清空（如图）
- 复工复产
现在再去讨论疫情，就如，领导停了你还说，领导夹菜你转桌。
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1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
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Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of NPCC: China understands & supports Russia’s core interest & decisions. Re Ukraine, Russia was cornered by the U.S./NATO & had to defend itself & its people.
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《论中国信息技术产业发展》江泽民
最有前瞻性的预判之一。
As early as 2006, Jiang Zemin presaged the dawn of the semi industry. If not sufficiently developed, China would be vulnerable to embargo by the west, he said. He also foresaw China’s ability to make 14nm chips by 2020.
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“有一只猪有些与众不同。它是肉猪，但长得又黑又瘦，两眼炯炯有光。这家伙像山羊一样敏捷，一米高的猪栏一跳就过；它还能跳上猪圈的房顶，这一点又像是猫，不在圈里待着。
领导把它定成坏分子，要对它采取专政 .. 但假如专政是指绳索和杀猪刀的话，那是一点门都没有.”
— 王小波《一只特立独行的猪》
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越南经典电影《常在我心中》
Vietnamese theatre classic “Always on My Mind”.
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Right now, Taiwan 101 Tower lights up to welcome
#Pelosi
. Pelosi’s puts on Taiwan semiconductor are in combat readiness.
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GDP of Chinese cities in lockdown now 35% of total, highest since 2021. Shenzhen, China Silicon Valley, has 8 districts in lockdown.
If persists, 3Q GDP will be even worse than 2Q of 0.4% growth, full year GDP 2.x%.
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曾经的期货程序化交易高手，两千多万的盘子，现在过着10块钱一天的游荡生活。有人会觉得他很落魄，但他却活出了自我、开心知足。
桃李春风一杯酒，江湖夜雨十年灯。
He’s once a program futures trader with positions >¥20m, now on ¥10/day in abject poverty. But he did it his way & happy.
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最近两天，三篇重要的文章：
1）人民日报《增强对当前疫情防控政策的信心和耐心》;
2）人民日报《“动态清零”可持续而且必须坚持》;
3）新华社《增强定力耐力疫情防控绝不能“躺平”》。
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“纯真而不欠闻达，善良而不失坚强。把生命高举在尘俗之上，又溶化于社会之中，这应该是我们这一代的共同追求。”
“Be innocent but not naive, be kind and resilient. Rise above corruption, with feet firmly on the ground. This should be the common pursuit of our generation.” — Li
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王小鲁：市场化是社会发展的必经之路。你想不要这套东西，实践证明你失败了。思想、技术、制度财富是人类共同的财富，不要学义和团，凡是外来的都拒绝，自己把路走死了。
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一些无法翻译的中文：复盘、赋能、赛道、组合拳、引爆点、生命周期、垂直领域 … 杀了我吧。
任何打着这些官腔的会议，都是浪费时间大会。在任何报告里，只要出现这些陈词滥调，请马上删除扔进垃圾回收。
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央视节目市场情绪指标：
《上甘岭》 — 空仓；
《长津湖》 — 做空；
《黄河绝恋》 — 满仓；
《北京遇上西雅图》 — 满仓满融。
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“We’re not afraid of COVID, but we’re afraid of disobedience.”
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Premier Li Keqiang visiting Huangshan, one of China’s most famous mountains, with Chiefs of IMF, World Bank, OECD etc.
“We are showing our hospitality to our foreign friends. After the pandemic, there will be more guests from domestic and afar.” Li said.
No one’s wearing mask.
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“有的人不曾以强力取胜，却以真诚、忍让、善良感人。其实，这才是生活中真正的强者。”
“Some never won by force, but touched through sincerity, patience and kindness. In fact, this is the real hero in life.” — Li Keqiang to his classmate in 1982.
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一年前写的预测2022《夕惕若厉》，关于2022年最差情景，经典的滞涨，股债双杀，上证略低于3000点。不幸，一语成谶。
很快，又要到预测2023的时刻了。
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Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
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看到微博上一些人，在这里看完了免费分享，马上掉头剽窃观点、数据、图表，还断章取义、添油加醋地黑，引来一群志同道合的喷子。
不想说什么。投资的成功，不仅是理论和学识，更是胸怀和格局。送这些人一首诗吧：
莫说他人短与长，说来说去自招殃；
若能闭口深藏舌，便是修行第一方。
— 宋·慈受怀深
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彭博微信公众号因举报被封。中国市场越发闭塞误导，定价失效。“稳定”压抑一切、无论对错，但明斯基终图穷匕见。
Bloomberg WeChat account suspended ‘cos snitchers. “Back to the USSR”. Mainland market increasingly misinformed & mispriced. Stability veils Minsky moment.
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Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年，逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
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1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
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Explosions at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem. Plant operating at 1/20 designed load cos weak demand since March. Fire & smoke billowing into sky, inferno erupting. Pray safe.
上海石化因需求不足超低负荷运行而爆炸，最低时1/20设计负荷。远处可见，滚滚浓烟逐日。祈祷平安。
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2003.04.02 一语成谶。
Front page of a Chinese newspaper 20 years ago read: ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN 2022.
Today, China reports first population decline in 61 years.
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Asia Pet Fair in Shenzhen was canceled at the last minute. Nanshan District in SZ lockdown.
Exhibitors paid millions for stages/inventory/labor/rent — all gone, together with “light, hope & dream” .. despondent.
COVID-0 disruption continues. “光、理想、希望都没了”.
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最近《预测》的盗版PDF在各大微信群流传。感谢各位的厚爱和关注，但恳请各位购买原版。此书所有的版税都捐做慈善用途，而书价仅一杯咖啡的价格。
我已把迄今收到的版税一分不留全部捐出，并会捐出之后陆续收到的版税。再次垦请尊重原版，鼓励原创，共倡善举🙏
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给艺考生们说一下目前就业趋势：
表演--密室剧本/NPC；
播音--带货主播；
声乐--教小孩儿；
器乐--教小孩儿；
舞蹈--教小孩儿；
编导--给上面五个拍抖音。
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广州解封。今天广州疫情发布会的六点总结。
Guangzhou reopens. It’s one of the worst-hit cities in the current wave of COVID. Guangzhou is known for being practical & freewheeling. It will set example for other cities still beset by a virus that’s even weaker than flu.
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Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
HK finally rebounded 3%, A-shares +1%. $EWH $KWEB $FXI $PGJ
2022-10-31 research: Hot money outflow 2nd worst in history. While HK can see further downside, this is a time when excessive pessimism doesn’t help anyone, and starts to disagree with our contrarian-self. $EWH
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Today’s global market map: what’s going on in China?
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还没打就见血了。4400个股票受伤。
Chinese stocks collapsed in the shadow of a looming conflict. 4400 of 4800 stocks hurt.
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静待潮水来了解套。看看人家海狮：心态最重要，不要忘记微笑。
“Waiting for a rising tide to lift my boat. Meanwhile, smile.” — A stranded seal.
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“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源，包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢，2013
然而，土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”，土地税、转让金“取之于无形，使人不怒”，是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
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六月新冠死亡人数0，流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
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“If I weren’t Chinese, I’d be more open & less ambivalent. I’d gloat, as China’s vast & deprived population tormented & hated — like ants, dying trying. It’s a joke.
Pity I’m Chinese, born in desperate struggles against fate. I feel love, hate & sorry for her.” — Hu Xijin, 2012
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China’s Fauci, Dr. Zhang Wenhong:
“It’s imperative for me to be vaccinated. But I could only speak for myself. If I, a so-called COVID guru, were infected, it’d be a huge scandal. But for young guys, COVID’s no big deal.
For the country it’s imperative. Frontline staffs, too.”
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最烦这些研究报告的套话（括号解毒）
- 风物长宜/可期/静待（现在没戏）
- 估值吸引（其它方面没戏）
- 四轮驱动（少一个轮子就没戏）
- 深挖个股（行业没戏）
- 不确定中找确定（找免费午餐=全面没戏）
- 区间震荡（这是真的不知道）
当然，分析师也无奈。鱼缸里的鱼，只知道鱼缸里的天地。
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2023年投资展望。讨论了中国经济周期的运行、市场的周期低点、房地产、美联储政策展望和中美周期和冲突。完整30分钟节目链接
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20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
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This is Old Guangzhou, or Canton in 1966, just before Cultural Revolution, when streets were cleaner than people’s clothes, & “the East Was Red” but not by the sun.
Guangzhou was the only window for foreign trade before “Reform & Open” in 1978. It’s a story of rags-to-riches.
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China consumer confidence plunged most ever since 1992, almost fell through the chart. Yet industrial output resilient. They used to be highly correlated. Odd.
中国消费者信心暴跌程度30年历史之最，快跌穿图底了。但工业产出却坚韧超预期。这些曾是高度相关的数据。为什么？
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这十年的总结：
2013年 “着力防控债务风险”
2014年 “新常态”
2015年 “供给侧改革”
2016年 “房住不炒”
2017年 “三年三大攻坚战”
2018年 “百年未有之大变局”
2019年 “关键之年”
2020年 “强化反垄断和防止资本无序扩张”、“共同富裕”
2021年 “需求供给冲击、预期转弱、三重压力”
这十年，还剩15天了。
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我现在推特讨论的话题，比以前在微博时更广了。社会、政治都有涉猎。毕竟以前要审核，但政经难分。许多读者一看到市场以外的话题就过敏了。其实，资料都源自国内媒体。
许多人感叹，为什么现在看不到好文章？皆因每个人都在自我阉割，忘记了墙内墙外。看看国内的研报，已经洗得和政府公文差不多了。
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Hainan Lockdown, the mess at Santa Airport. Authority apologized, promised free room & board, but the crowd chanted: WE WANNA GO HOME.
Nothing Is Free Without Freedom.
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这两天看了下老胡的推，感觉和卖方分析师挺像的：
1）原则上只能多不能空；
2）有的时候情绪很激动，但话从不说满，
错了也不怕打脸；
3）偶尔流露出直达天听的感觉，但消息时
准时不准。//转
所以，无论是分析师还是大V，都要给观众云山雾罩的神秘感。人生如戏，全靠演技。
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CCTV poster concedes pets don’t transmit COVID, calling for kindness towards our animal friends & respect for life. A u-turn. Those atrocious videos of “big white” going into homes to kill pets alive still haunting us.
Again, monitor propaganda change for gradual COVID-0 exit.
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浮生一場若夢，今夕又是秋涼。月上西窗滿中廊，庭深影斜人靜。
廣寒宮裡折桂，瑤池水戲金烏。萬里江山邈雲漢，閱盡凡間風浪。
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40
667
Lee Kuan Yew on China (1993):
“We want peaceful rising. But what about the next generation? If they believe the imperialists rip-off China, they’ll become belligerent..
Let next gen appreciate isolation & ideological mistakes’re costly .. Or China’d cut off & turn chauvinist.”
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一群喷子质疑中科院金属所硕士、香港中文大学物理系材料专业博士的学历，认为研究真空正负能量分离的刘本良博士要骗他们五千块钱。
“这是文明级别的差异 .. 读书不能只是为了钱，是为了能做改变人类的事业。我就是为了传播这个价值。知道吗？”
刘博选择只研究、不工作，比去街道的清北博士强大多了。
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