2x Economist of the Year - Asian Private Banker; FT Book of 2020; No.1 Strategist/Economist - AsiaMoney. “The man who called China’s boom & bust” - Bloomberg
Ex-Premier Wen Jiabao: the progress of human society is via debates among diff. schools of thoughts … For China to have a truly bright future, we must promote independent & critical thinking… & create a free academic environment for people to seek the truth & meaning of life.
COVID Outbreak In Zhengzhou, Henan. Tens of thousands Foxconn workers walking out of factory lockdown, going home bare foot on the Central Plain’s great earth. 在中原的大地上默默行走着…
2022 hasn’t been kind to Henan’s people. Hope they get home safe.
黄奇帆与王波明谈中国房地产见顶。我的分析更具体。他混淆了几个指标,但瑕不掩瑜。
Celebrity politician Huang Qifan discussed Chinese property with Caijing Chief Editor Wang Boming. Aging pop, peaking urbanization & living space, large inventory & peak price all spell big trouble.
I’m opening Grow Investment Group’s HK office. After 25 years of research, I finally cross the road from sell-side to buy-side.
What’s past is prologue.
凡是過往,皆為序章。
彭博社报道链接:
蔡洪平与王波明聊中国半导体实际情况:只能做>28纳米;光刻机零件受制;没有国际合作,零机会赶上,且越追越远。
Cai Hongping discussed China’s semi: can only do >28nm; US bans endanger key parts of lithograph; w/o global co-op, China has 0 chance to catch up, lagging further behind.
This is the year people will talk about.
This is the year people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.
The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.
- Bertolt Brecht - 1940
“买了三套买四套”
This has gone viral on Chinese internet.
“I call on every comrade to take the lead to buy a property.
If you are on your 1st property, then buy a 2nd one; if on 2nd, then buy a 3rd; already on 3rd? There’s always room for the 4th.”
Now let the buying begin.
30年前,葛优讲解如何写出更好的文章。中国情景喜剧首秀即天花板。文字是用来解放思想的,而非禁锢。
In China’s 1st sitcom 30 yrs ago, Ge You explained writing for the people, not dictating to them. Chinese sitcom peaked at debut. Words are to set the mind free, not to confine it.
1966.08.18, Today 56 years ago, Chairman Mao greeting the Little Red Guards for the first time on Tiananmen Square, with then Premier Zhou Enlai, Jiang Qing, Lin Biao.
The onset of Cultural Revolution.
Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the Standing Committee of NPCC: China understands & supports Russia’s core interest & decisions. Re Ukraine, Russia was cornered by the U.S./NATO & had to defend itself & its people.
《论中国信息技术产业发展》江泽民
最有前瞻性的预判之一。
As early as 2006, Jiang Zemin presaged the dawn of the semi industry. If not sufficiently developed, China would be vulnerable to embargo by the west, he said. He also foresaw China’s ability to make 14nm chips by 2020.
GDP of Chinese cities in lockdown now 35% of total, highest since 2021. Shenzhen, China Silicon Valley, has 8 districts in lockdown.
If persists, 3Q GDP will be even worse than 2Q of 0.4% growth, full year GDP 2.x%.
曾经的期货程序化交易高手,两千多万的盘子,现在过着10块钱一天的游荡生活。有人会觉得他很落魄,但他却活出了自我、开心知足。
桃李春风一杯酒,江湖夜雨十年灯。
He’s once a program futures trader with positions >¥20m, now on ¥10/day in abject poverty. But he did it his way & happy.
“纯真而不欠闻达,善良而不失坚强。把生命高举在尘俗之上,又溶化于社会之中,这应该是我们这一代的共同追求。”
“Be innocent but not naive, be kind and resilient. Rise above corruption, with feet firmly on the ground. This should be the common pursuit of our generation.” — Li
Premier Li Keqiang visiting Huangshan, one of China’s most famous mountains, with Chiefs of IMF, World Bank, OECD etc.
“We are showing our hospitality to our foreign friends. After the pandemic, there will be more guests from domestic and afar.” Li said.
No one’s wearing mask.
“有的人不曾以强力取胜,却以真诚、忍让、善良感人。其实,这才是生活中真正的强者。”
“Some never won by force, but touched through sincerity, patience and kindness. In fact, this is the real hero in life.” — Li Keqiang to his classmate in 1982.
Nowadays researching in China is like shouting underwater — it’s all muffled.
But the longer the voices are suppressed under water, the more fierce the struggle will be, and the bigger the stir later.
Surreal images from James Web. It took over 20 years, $10bn to construct. But China blows that much on daily COVID tests every 3 days.
韦伯望远镜从时间的尽头传来宇宙的秘密。韦伯的建造花了二十多年,逾100亿美元。却只够中国全民做三次核酸。
1997, Clinton & Jiang Zemin’s joint press conference. Then Jiang invited Clinton to dine at the Great Hall of People, & conducted the orchestra together. Jiang even chitchatted with Hilary a little.
The good old days, when China’s charm offensive was at its best.
Explosions at Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem. Plant operating at 1/20 designed load cos weak demand since March. Fire & smoke billowing into sky, inferno erupting. Pray safe.
上海石化因需求不足超低负荷运行而爆炸,最低时1/20设计负荷。远处可见,滚滚浓烟逐日。祈祷平安。
2003.04.02 一语成谶。
Front page of a Chinese newspaper 20 years ago read: ZERO POPULATION GROWTH IN 2022.
Today, China reports first population decline in 61 years.
Asia Pet Fair in Shenzhen was canceled at the last minute. Nanshan District in SZ lockdown.
Exhibitors paid millions for stages/inventory/labor/rent — all gone, together with “light, hope & dream” .. despondent.
COVID-0 disruption continues. “光、理想、希望都没了”.
广州解封。今天广州疫情发布会的六点总结。
Guangzhou reopens. It’s one of the worst-hit cities in the current wave of COVID. Guangzhou is known for being practical & freewheeling. It will set example for other cities still beset by a virus that’s even weaker than flu.
Heard that “Reopening Committee” has been formed & led by Wang Huning, Politburo Standing Member. The Committee is reviewing COVID data from US/HK/SG to assess various reopening scenarios, target 03/2023 reopen.
HK finally rebounded 3%, A-shares +1%. $EWH $KWEB $FXI $PGJ
2022-10-31 research: Hot money outflow 2nd worst in history. While HK can see further downside, this is a time when excessive pessimism doesn’t help anyone, and starts to disagree with our contrarian-self. $EWH
“土地国有制是一切社会问题的根源,包括腐败、社会不平等”。许成钢,2013
然而,土地国有类似于自古以来的”盐铁专营”,土地税、转让金“取之于无形,使人不怒”,是中国社会“超稳定结构”的支柱之一。
“State ownership of land is the root of all society ills.” — Xu Chenggang, 2013
六月新冠死亡人数0,流感4。一个死亡率最低的传染病却消耗着大量的医疗资源。
China recorded 0 death from COVID in June, but 4 death from flu. A disease with 0 death rate consumes bulk of healthcare resources.
“If I weren’t Chinese, I’d be more open & less ambivalent. I’d gloat, as China’s vast & deprived population tormented & hated — like ants, dying trying. It’s a joke.
Pity I’m Chinese, born in desperate struggles against fate. I feel love, hate & sorry for her.” — Hu Xijin, 2012
China’s Fauci, Dr. Zhang Wenhong:
“It’s imperative for me to be vaccinated. But I could only speak for myself. If I, a so-called COVID guru, were infected, it’d be a huge scandal. But for young guys, COVID’s no big deal.
For the country it’s imperative. Frontline staffs, too.”
20条 “20 measures” cut foreign quarantine to 5+3, cancel Int’l flights circuit breaker, no indiscriminate lockdown, end unnecessary COVID test, no tracing 2ndary close contact, free people stuck in COVID zone etc.
My “billion-dollar tweet” 2wks ago all turned true. HK +8%!
This is Old Guangzhou, or Canton in 1966, just before Cultural Revolution, when streets were cleaner than people’s clothes, & “the East Was Red” but not by the sun.
Guangzhou was the only window for foreign trade before “Reform & Open” in 1978. It’s a story of rags-to-riches.
China consumer confidence plunged most ever since 1992, almost fell through the chart. Yet industrial output resilient. They used to be highly correlated. Odd.
中国消费者信心暴跌程度30年历史之最,快跌穿图底了。但工业产出却坚韧超预期。这些曾是高度相关的数据。为什么?
Hainan Lockdown, the mess at Santa Airport. Authority apologized, promised free room & board, but the crowd chanted: WE WANNA GO HOME.
Nothing Is Free Without Freedom.
CCTV poster concedes pets don’t transmit COVID, calling for kindness towards our animal friends & respect for life. A u-turn. Those atrocious videos of “big white” going into homes to kill pets alive still haunting us.
Again, monitor propaganda change for gradual COVID-0 exit.
Lee Kuan Yew on China (1993):
“We want peaceful rising. But what about the next generation? If they believe the imperialists rip-off China, they’ll become belligerent..
Let next gen appreciate isolation & ideological mistakes’re costly .. Or China’d cut off & turn chauvinist.”