Adam
@GeeGeeBanker
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French Horse Racing Form Analyst and Blog Writer. President of the Spes Militurf fan club. Gills fan
Ashford, England
Joined June 2017
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Theleme’s record over hurdles 🇫🇷
2,1,1/2,2,1/3,2,4,1,1/1,2,1,1,1
He’s been beaten 7 times but that doesn’t make me doubt him for a moment.
14 starts since 2021, 5 Grade 1 wins 🏆
Europes best hurdler (FR)
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In 10 years time when we have lost National Hunt Racing, there will be so many people who will look back and wish we had done more to protect our Sport.
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Facile Vega and Marine Nationale are a shorter price currently than both Altior and Vautour returned at SP when they won the Supreme 🤷🏻♂️
Both would be 2/5 to win this years renewal, the game is gone👇
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I don’t know why I let this annoy me but it does. I pay an annual subscription fee for someone to suggest Ahoy Senor (who has run 2 poor races) is better than Tingle Creek winner Edwardstone and Dashel Drasher would beat Bravemansgame 🤷🏻♂️🤦♂️
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Lingfield today is £30?? Nothing above a Class 3 on the card....Sandown on Thursday £14 which includes the Grade 2 Jane Seymour Novices Hurdle 🤷♂️
In the middle of the school half-term break surely someone needs to look at the costs and work out a better way of pricing this 👇
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Just updating a few of my lists this morning and I’m now up to 32 new French recruits in Willie Mullins yard for the coming season 🇫🇷
Work riders at Closutton will soon need to have French on their CV 🇮🇪🇫🇷
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This year’s Gold Cup market with best RPR figures and adjusted ratings based on what each horse would need to find if we assume Galopin des Champs runs up to his best form👇
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Surely Soumillon needs to be removed from the Vadeni ride?
The bad publicity generated if he wins the Arc after what he has done today would be appalling for the sport. Endangering a life is not something a dangerous riding ban should be allowed to settle 🇫🇷
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Doing a lot of Cheltenham research and the biggest lesson is that in 10-years the Antepost prices have collapsed 🤷🏻♂️
Vautour returned a bigger SP (6/4) when he won the JLT as it was then than Gaelic Warrior is (11/8) 8-weeks before the race.
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My apologies, but this one was too intricate for the pen and paper 👍
Willie Mullins 🇮🇪 runners in the Supreme since 2014 with sources, age, market expectations and pre-festival form 👇
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The current Arkle market with RPRs used for comparison ⬇️
10lbs between everything that matters
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Dared to question an Antepost market yesterday but for those asking this is how I would see the principles in the Supreme 👇
I have no Antepost, EW or NRNB to worry about so will be different to a Bookmaker, but used the Coton system to get this to 101% or so 👍
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The mess that is the Stayers hurdle 👇
Used RPRs to compare. If this was a handicap there would be 10lbs between the first 15 in this market (who are likely to run) 🤯
If forced I might chance a veteran like Paisley or SDB, but I’m happy to leave this entirely 👍
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A look at the Champion Bumper as it stands 👇
Irish domination as usual but maybe a market for an upset at this point. Included average speeds (where possible). If Goldinthemountains were to head that way he might be of interest on the figures 👍
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You know you’ve married the right girl when your weekend plans are all over the place and she looks at you and says “we really should go to Ascot to watch the race” 👍😂
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Far too soon to be finding a 2025 Triumph hurdle horse, but we have already seen some smart 3YOs in France and I’d have these as the top 5 at this stage 🇫🇷
Nietzsche Has
Sobriquette
Kirakine
Le Magnifico
Mamisuz de Houelle
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Looked at the Turners 👇
Mighty Potter clear on form but maybe not the certainty the market suggests at 11/8. Balco Coastal the wrong price, bt Solo 9-lengths and then within 2-lengths of Gerri Colombe at Sandown. Shouldn’t be double figs on that form 👍
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It’s August. The Flat is nearly over and it’s time to get excited about the Jumps, so here we go….
Part 1 of this years “French Recruits” series 🇫🇷
Likes, Retweets and Feedback always welcome👍
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Triumph hurdle with RPRs ⬇️
Don’t think there are any more angles to exploit as Sir Gino will need to underperform to give anything else a chance.
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Here is this years list of French recruits 🇫🇷
Far fewer this year as it has got much harder to find them but hopefully a few winners for the new season amongst them 👍
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Introducing qualification and min. number of runs per season criteria for every Cheltenham race would transform the NH season
What's a horse racing opinion that will have you like this?
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Everything that racing should be about.
A champion trainer and Champion amateur jockey beaten in a finish by a man in his 40s who puts himself on the line for the love of the sport, fantastic result for David Maxwell 👏
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Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with RPRs as it stands today ⬇️
Ballyburn a long way in front on the figures (if he runs here)🇮🇪
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When JP McManus opens his cheque book it’s worth taking notice…..his latest recruit in France made a really exciting debut at Auteuil on Sunday 🇫🇷
Kloth of Utopia ⬇️
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French Guineas Day €5
French Champion Hurdle Day (upgraded to winning post stand!) €14
It can be done, British Racing chooses not to 👇
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This is SPES MILITURF. He’s a 4-y-o trained by Lageneste & Macaire, he’s 3 from 3 over hurdles, all of which have been in the French provinces so will have been barely been noticed -
But he’s a Monster, doing times that are rapid and one day this tweet will look very clever 👍
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Did the Ballymore this week 👇
Really open and couldn’t get closer than 104% or so, but can’t help but feel Champ Kiely and Inthepocket are the wrong prices despite the strength of Hermes Allen’s form 👍
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Every Monday I spend 8-10 hours watching and timing the French Provincial races from the weekend 🇫🇷
You can’t bet on them, most of the runners never run in races available in the UK, but then you find the likes of SPES MILITURF and it’s all worth it 👍🤩
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The 2 best horses in training separated by a length 👏
Wont see a better race than that in my lifetime
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The Cross-Country Chase today 👇
If you don’t back one of the G1 winners, you’re asking for at least 17lbs of improvement from your horse to have a chance of collecting 🤷🏻♂️
Could and Should be a Handicap instead 👍
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Lossiemouth is great but ENOLA has the potential to be just as good 👇
A Listed winner at Marseille in September, she was bought for €200k and is related to Champion 4YO Petite Parisienne. She was registered with HRI for the Donnellys last week 🇫🇷🇮🇪
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Racing is the oldest form of sports betting 🐎
“My horse is faster than your horse and here’s my money to back my opinion”
Maybe one day we can lose all the politics and get back to that 🤷🏻♂️
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Seems a very appropriate moment to retweet this 🇫🇷😂
On 22nd August last year I wrote about Lossiemouth and she did ok, so with a hint of superstition here’s another Triumph hurdle contender on the same day a year later 👍
Sir Gino 🇫🇷
Likes, RTs and Feedback always welcome 👍
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My grandfather passed away 6-years-ago and although I’m not superstitious every year I bring him his favourite chocolate and ask for a bit of luck for Cheltenham.
The old boy produced 9 winners last year so he set a solid precedent 😀
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Current Qualifiers for the Pertemps Final sorted by OR
24 get in, so currently it would be J’ai Froid and White Rhino at the bottom of the handicap (French qualifier very unlikely to run)
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Few more depressing sights than seeing one of your bigger Antepost fancies running at Stratford on the Monday before the festival 🤦♂️
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They don’t have betting in running at Nimes 🇫🇷….but if they did there would have been a few 1.01 punters who would have done their conkers on yesterdays 4YO Hurdle 😂
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So I’ve had an hour on this and I just can’t work out how Milan Tino got 126??
Can only assume it’s based on the November run and nothing else? 🤷🏻♂️
Not sure he is quick enough to win a Boodles but the mark is generous 🇫🇷
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It’s been on my mind all weekend so I’ve had a few quid EW on Zanahiyr for the Champion hurdle at 100s
He can’t win, but I’m getting a pure 10s to the stake on him finishing 3rd, in a race where he is surely ridden to place and with so many mares not running, it’s worth a go 🤞
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Mares Novices’ Hurdle as it stands ⬇️
Used RPRs to compare and obviously loads are unexposed and likely to improve, but even with a penalty Jade de Grugy and Brighterdaysahead would have something in hand on these numbers
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Mares Chase today 👇
In reality, a Grade 1 Mare against a few Grade 2 Mares and the rest just chancing their arm….Dinoblue needs to either run elsewhere or underperform for anything else to win this I think.
Brides Hill perhaps a little big if you want an EW alternative 👍
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Il Est Francais at Kempton 👇
✅Faster than Hewick
✅Faster than Allaho
✅Fastest from the 3rd Last
Hermes Allen would have gone close in the King George, but worth looking at where Shishkin was in comparison 👀
“Il Est Magnifique” 🇫🇷
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I’ve been posting these for the last 10-days but I have also made them into a PDF for those that want a copy 👇
Mullins runners in the Novice races since 2014, includes their OR stats and early data 👍
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Who need as Advent Calendar when you’ve got Racing at Cagnes-Sur-Mer 🇫🇷
Day 1 of the winter season today, always the sign it’s nearly Christmas 🎄
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Il Etait Temps, Sir Gino, Impaire et Passé and Sans Bruit all had form in France….the recruitment never stops and neither does the research to keep track of them….here’s a small preview of the start of the 2024-25 list 🇫🇷
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This race has a habit of producing good horses and I’d say Lazzat may prove to be the best of them. Superb winner in the opener at Cagnes 🇫🇷
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I’ve finally done it. 😂
Taken a few years but…
I’ve expressed an opinion and got Icy to tell me where I’m going wrong. Win or Lose at least the French aren’t afraid of an “away day” eh?
@icyestretro
Imagine thinking agood horse in France wouldn't have been bought 4 years ago.
This will get kicked around the place in the Stayers Hurdle.
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Thought Hunters Yarn might be my Supreme horse but had time to look at Boyne hurdle day and I can’t make it stick 👇
He is quickest in the straight, but lb for lb Blazing Khal beats him and I think he was a good horse winning a bad race, not a great horse winning a good one 👍
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For the first time in a fair while, the best 3YO middle distance horses are French 🇫🇷
Ace Impact, Blue Rose Cen, Feed the Flame….bring on the Arc in October 🤞
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Put together a decent list of French recruits for the guys
@TheJumpsShow
last season and delighted to put another list together for the new season 🇫🇷
No AntePost thoughts this time, just 10 French recruits that I think will win races 🤞
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French Racing had a 17% rise in attendance figures in 2023 compared to 2022 🇫🇷
Make Racing affordable and people will come.
Credit:
@Jour_de_Galop
L'Institution des courses a communiqué les chiffres de la fréquentation 2023. Plus de 2,1 millions de spectateurs se sont déplacés sur l’un des 233 hippodromes 🇫🇷l’an dernier, soit une ↗️ de 17 % VS 2022. Vous êtes surpris de cette hausse à deux chiffres ?
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Been asked about a few French-trained runners in the Antepost markets, so have put together a short video on those who feature more prominently and their chances 🇫🇷
Full link 🎥 :
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50 days to go until the Silver Trophy meeting at Chepstow 👏
To celebrate the occasion, here is Part 1 of my summer project looking at French Imports who could make their mark in the new Jumps season 🇫🇷
Likes, Retweets and Feedback always appreciated 👍
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September is around the corner and it’s nearly time for the Jumps season proper. So here is the final part of my French imports series 🇫🇷👇
A couple of these feature in the early market for the Triumph hurdle if you’re that way inclined 👍
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Another year over at Auteuil 🇫🇷
Watched every race twice, recorded times for all of them (311 in total). Countless hours put in, but when you find out about horses like Lossiemouth, Spes Militurf and Il Est Francais before everyone else, it’s well worth it 👍
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Massive weekend of top class racing at Auteuil this weekend…Grade 1 races both days….between €5 - €15 for tickets 🇫🇷👍
Pay more than that for a Pint at Cheltenham this weekend 😂
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OMG…..hope you read the note on the bottom of this tweet because Miqyaas has just won - 100/1! Earlier today 👍😂
Few Meydan Thoughts 🇦🇪
2:00 - Blue Trail (EW)
2:35 - RevFC Law of Peace/Street Mood
3:10 - FC Al Dasim/Noor Bano
3:45 - Lost Eden (EW)
4:55 - Tiger Nation
5:30 - Modern News
Tough card but had a few for interest…might add Miqyaas is a silly 100/1 in R5 🤷🏻♂️
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This was put up on “Weighed-In” so looked at Magic Daze at Naas 🇮🇪
Only Billaway to compare to, she beats him 39 lengths over the final circuit but he is 0.5s quicker from the last.
Elimay ran to RPR 133, just 1lb lower than when she won race in 22, have seen worse 10/1 bets 👍
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Have had a huge amount of interest in this, over 100 emails sent in the last 24 hours, thank you for the support 👇
Decided to make it available on the blog too, 100 French horses that are coming to a track near you this season 🇫🇷👍
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There are 7-weeks to go until the new season at Meydan 🇦🇪
Thought I’d start a small countdown looking at last seasons stats and trends, starting with the 6f sprints on the dirt 👇
Not a huge surprise to see that stall 1 is the place to be 👍
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At 9:15 on a Saturday morning we might have seen a horse to follow for 2024 🇫🇷
Vigatata has absolute bolted up at Bordeaux.
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I have seen some odd prices around but what on earth is 323/97?? 😂
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Some things are just more important than racing….very lucky to be celebrating 3-years of marriage today with
@lcv_1987
👍
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Never mind the winner, what a run by Zanahiyr to be 3rd 👍
It’s been on my mind all weekend so I’ve had a few quid EW on Zanahiyr for the Champion hurdle at 100s
He can’t win, but I’m getting a pure 10s to the stake on him finishing 3rd, in a race where he is surely ridden to place and with so many mares not running, it’s worth a go 🤞
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Got no chance of a career as a cameraman but it was a pleasure to be here to see that
#jonbon
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You have bad days and then you have great ones in Racing.
5 winners and a 2nd from 6 picks at Cheltenham for
@ToteRacing
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Willie Mullins Ballymore runners since 2014 🇮🇪
Interesting that virtually all of them have arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a win or close 2nd. Seems that he sends his Horses to this race in-form, rather than as an afterthought 👇
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JP McManus registering an arsenal of new French talent for the upcoming season with HRI 🇫🇷
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€592k Prize Money on offer on the opening day at Auteuil tomorrow 🇫🇷
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3 minutes and 30-seconds on the new favourite for the Betfair hurdle on Saturday, Ocastle des Mottes (Fr) 🇫🇷
Full video:
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Few notes on Minella Indo at Tramore 👇
Not much to compare to but they at least went quicker than the 2m Rated Nov (winner won next time).
Cheltenham record is 1,2,1,2 and he has always found 9lbs + when going to the festival. Won’t win but shouldn’t be 20/1 👍
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Champion hurdle as it stands 👇
State Man suggested as an EW on “Weighed In” this week. Single doesn’t appeal (Win bet a waste) but in EW doubles with the likes of Jonbon, Delta Work and Galopin des Champs it’s hard to see how that doesn’t return if they complete 👍
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The road to the 2025 Triumph Hurdle gets underway in just a few weeks time at Compiegne 🇫🇷
For those interested, here is the 3YO hurdle program for the first few months of the season ⬇️
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Grand National Trial filtered with stamina and heavy ground in mind ⬇️
Full Back maybe worth a swing at double figures, but the bottom 2 in the weights only need to find 5-7lbs improvement and under 10-7 is a clear advantage in that Haydock mud
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Ryanair Chase figures 👇
Lots of guesswork as to what will run in this market (have removed the obvious ones). Allaho still a standard bearer even if not quite at his peak anymore, but seen worse bets than Envoi Allen EW at 9s 👍
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How can you not love Ian Bartlett on Comms? 😂😂
Made a quiet Monday at Clairefontaine much more entertaining, nice to see a commentator say what he thinks 👏
(Sound on for this)
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Starting some Antepost pieces and there are a few ricks around 🙄
Isaac Des Obeaux is too old to run in the Triumph (33/1 Hills, 20s Unibet)
Risk Belle isn’t a Novice courtesy of a win at Nancy in March but is 3rd Fav for the Mares Novice hurdle (14/1 Bet365 and Unibet)
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This will be the final French recruits series (I’ve had a good run 👍) and there are lots to get through for 2023/24.
We start with a Novice hurdler who is heading to Nicky Henderson, Excello 🇫🇷
Likes, RTs and Feedback always welcome 👍
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#notlongnow
I’ve finished the 10 to Follow but there were too many names to leave it there…so will have a few pieces to round up this series. We start with a few names that have joined Willie Mullins this summer 🇫🇷
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On 22nd August last year I wrote about Lossiemouth and she did ok, so with a hint of superstition here’s another Triumph hurdle contender on the same day a year later 👍
Sir Gino 🇫🇷
Likes, RTs and Feedback always welcome 👍
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If a trainer doesn’t want to run a horse bc of the ground it’s their call, they know the horse best……and as long as the Stewards ask the question when they do run the horse if the going has the same description at Cheltenham in March then there shouldn’t be an issue with it
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A lot of talk about Cap Du Nord at Ascot but the more I look the more I think it should be Oscar Elite that catches the eye on that card 👇
Never an exact science but he has run a much more impressive final circuit time, carrying more weight
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It’s a little bit early for Cheltenham, but if I was an odds compiler I’d make this horse the early favourite for the Triumph hurdle in 2024 🇫🇷
Salvator Mundi (Fr)
Likes, RTs and Feedback always welcome 👍
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Champion Chase 👇
Nothing in it and no obvious angle unless the big 2 meet in the Clarence House at Ascot. In theory, Dinoblue only 6lbs short with her allowance but surely run in the Mares Chase instead.
Only 8lbs in it for the race for 3rd but hardly tempting EW terms🤷🏻♂️
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Few notes on the “Arkle Trial” at Cheltenham today 👇
Maybe I’ve got JPR One wrong but I can’t believe he can be 13/8, Mighty Tom and Homme Public have achieved at least as much as he has on the track 🤷🏻♂️
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@RowleyfileRRR
I find this system (Mark Cotons) to work. Rule out those with no chance (100/1+ as a rule), don’t look at the market before doing the work. Score each horse on merit in context of the race, then work backwards from the Highest score at Evs until I get as close to 100% as poss
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Wouldn’t normally get over excited about a Down Royal Mares Bumper in August but….
This is HI STRANGER winning earlier, under a penalty, in a very impressive final circuit time, looks a really nice prospect for John Kiely 🇮🇪👍
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Willie Mullins has a runner in the 3YO newcomers hurdle the Prix Wild Monarch (Pouliches) at Auteuil on Sunday….ridden by Rachel Blackmore 👇
Can’t imagine they are going for the sightseeing just 2-days before Punchestown starts 👀
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1st day of the Flat season at Cagnes-Sur-Mer 🇫🇷
More excited about this than Cheltenham 😂
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Who needs Champions Day?
…..Spes Militurf is declared for Auteuil on Saturday 🇫🇷👌😍
The rising star of French racing bids to make it a perfect 7 wins from 7 starts 🤞
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Arkle market assessed with the Coton system that I adapted ⬇️
Still relies on my interpretation of the form and what state Marine Nationale turns up in, but compared to current Betfair model there would be some value when the runners are ranked on form achieved
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What 1 change would you make in Racing in 2023?
Mine would be to take the Racing League and limit entry to trainers/jockeys with less than 50 winners the year before….would do wonders for the lower levels of the pyramid 👍
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First race at Sanlucar is won by Natural Path 🇪🇸
What an amazing place to go racing, adding this to the bucket list 👍
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We are approaching the end of the spring season at Auteuil 🇫🇷
Probably a better year for the 3YO hurdlers than it first appeared, this is how I would rank the best of them so far ⬇️
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Everyone remembers Annie Power falling, but stood 2-yards from the line is a younger me who was so shocked he’d forgotten all about the Antepost on Glens Melody 😂
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To put this achievement into perspective, this works out to £4,082 per runner, compared to Paul Nicholls £3,513, Dan Skelton £2,449 and Nicky Henderson 2,744 (based on 2020-21 NH season)
A Phenomenal effort by
@Leech_Racing
and a fantastic return for their owners 👏
Time to reflect on an extraordinary 20/21 jumps campaign. The majority of our runners were in France so we’ll go with euros
115 runners
32 individual horses
13 wins
€543,000 prize money won
€4,722 per runner
Too many to thank individually for this special year, well done team
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The best staying hurdler in the world is Theleme 🇫🇷
The best 4YO hurdler in the world is St Donats 🇫🇷
The best 3YO hurdler in the world is Jigme 🇫🇷
The Visuals agree, the Form Book agrees and the Clock agrees 👍
A brief review of the Spring hurdles 👇
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The Turners Novices’ Chase as it currently stands ⬇️
A shallow enough pool and the spread on number of runners has to be 6-7 I would think.
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Brown Advisory today 👇
Much harder race to price, started thinking Gerri Colombe would be my pick and he is the most likely winner, but there isn’t much juice in his price. Included Galliard du Mesnil as a runner but would assume he goes NH chase which would shave 1/2pt on most
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