Gavekal
@Gavekal
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Gavekal is one of the leading independent providers of global investment research. It also advises a select range of funds and offers software solutions.
Hong Kong, Beijing
Joined January 2010
Want to read daily commentary on #GlobalMacro & #ChinaMacro #EconomicsResearch from one of the world's leading independent providers? Or advice on #AssetAllocation? Sign up for a 1-month free trial to @Gavekal Research at #InvestmentResearch
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RT @JrMiningGuy: Is NVIDIA Crashing The Market? China's & GOLD's RISE First-time guest @gave_vincent joins us from HK to share his perspec…
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The release by Chinese company DeepSeek of a new AI large language model comparable with models from US industry leaders like OpenAI or Anthropic has called into question many of the assumptions that have powered the bull market in US tech stocks. In this video interview, Gavekal co-founder & CEO @gave_vincent looks at how DeepSeek developed its model despite US sanctions, examines whether the claims made for its technology are credible or just Chinese propaganda, and considers the effects on the US and Chinese investment environments. (We've taken down the paywall for this one)
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China’s financial regulators are pushing insurance companies to allocate more funds into the stock market in order to boost equity prices. Publicly traded equities account for a relatively small share of total insurance fund investments, and regulators are asking large state-owned insurers to invest 30% of new policy premiums into the stock market starting this year. Whether that will actually happen remains an open question, and onshore equity markets largely shrugged off the announcement.
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RT @JackFarley96: OUT NOW - China's extreme bond market rally has stoked fear of further deflation & depression. China vet @gave_vincent o…
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International oil prices have risen sharply over the last week after the US administration of Joe Biden, with just days left in office, imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s oil export industry. In this video interview, Gavekal geoeconomics analyst Yanmei Xie considers why the US administration chose now to sanction Russia’s oil producers, shadow shippers and offshore traders, whether the US measures are likely to be effective, and if the incoming administration of Donald Trump will have the appetite for vigorous enforcement: 📼🛢️
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Sharply falling interest rates on Chinese government bonds have become a major topic of discussion among market watchers, many of whom see it a symptom of the country's economic ailments. Yet the picture is complicated by the fact that several parts of China's economy simultaneously show strength, says Louis-Vincent Gave in this interview with @EFNTV: (introduction in Swedish, interview in English)
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Michael Barr is stepping down from his role as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision earlier than expected. In this video interview, US economist Tan Kai Xian discusses what this move signifies about Fed independence in the upcoming Trump administration and what is likely to be the shape of US regulation:
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Some economists are forecasting that US President-elect Donald Trump could impose tariffs that knock as much as 2 percentage points off China’s GDP growth. That’s a big number, and relies on the assumption that another trade war would lead to a collapse in manufacturing-sector investment and hiring. But manufacturing investment has decoupled from the export cycle since 2023, probably in part due to an unprecedented boom in credit for manufacturers. Read more here:
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