Gareth Soloway
@GarethSoloway
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26 yr Pro Trader | Data Driven, Technical, Disciplined, Psychology | Stock/ETF signals, Crypto signals, Commodity signals @ https://t.co/S3DPd5FQXe
Tampa, FL
Joined March 2011
#Bitcoin flushed through 28k. With so little volume, stops triggering can cause an outsized move (flash crash). Rumors that SpaceX dumped its holdings (unconfirmed) exacerbated the selling and increased the dump with so few buyers available. SpaceX did write down some of their
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My high end 20k #Bitcoin target has been officially achieved & pierced. Many a doubter when we were at $65-$69k but as always, truth of charts are greater than the emotion of the retail crowd. #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #Ethereum #Trading #Investing.
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Warning from someone who has seen 25 yrs trading bull/bear markets in #Stocks, #Commodities #Crypto. Bear market rallies make you believe a new bull is here. #FOMO off 30% $BTC run is insane. Note $TSLA chart, multiple 30-50% bounces. BTC hasnt taken #FTX collapse high out.
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5 Reasons #Bitcoin has a near-term bottom. 1. Perfect measured move (note the chart). 2. Stops and weak hands flushed out below $20,000 (classic market action). 3. Extreme oversold condition (RSI 20ish). 4. 10 year yield likely topped (risk on), 5. Dollar likely topped (risk on).
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Did #Bitcoin just give up its gains from $25,300 to $23,700 as max fomo hit? Hmmm. So weird that would happen again? Hope you weren't one that FOMOed in above 25k. Same people that bought at 65k got taken again. Big money knows the psychological triggers.
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Word hitting that the #FederalReserve will do another 75 bps in Nov then pivot. Dollar starts to fall off highs. Fed maybe just got the message of how close the world was to financial collapse.
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#JeromePowell dovish tone today. Smart money has to start wondering what he sees on the horizon (in terms of a recession) as to why he wants to pivot so quick. Always think 2 steps ahead. Something is up and he is looking at the real data behind the scenes. #FederalReserve.
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#StockMarket warning: $SPX & $NASDAQ sharply higher but $VIX (volatility) is not dropping. This tells the trading community smart money is buying protection & to be careful. This isn't to say we cant go up for a few days, but is a bigger signal of trouble looming.
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With my high end target being achieved, I now am comfortable enough to begin a tiny HODL position (1/6% of what I intend to accumulate) here at 19k, fully understanding that #Bitcoin will likely go to my second target of $12,000 & perhaps below. I will slowly add every 3k down.
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5.9% core #CPI. Market expected north of 6%. Stripping out food/energy is key. I doubt this rally lasts long though, be wary. Economy is slowing, inflation is still high, recession is still likely. A lot of headwinds.
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Extreme hawkish Fed statement. Just like past printing and tightening phases, the Fed will go way too far, way too fast and will crush the economy. Makes you question their ability to understand how rate hikes take time to cycle through the economy vs them reacting emotionally.
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#GDP comes out -0.9%. Markets initially sell, then rally as investors love the falling #Dollar and likelihood that the #FederalReserve can no longer raise rates aggressively. So risk on for now UNTIL the market realizes the Fed can't print us out of a bad recession. #Bitcoin.
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Markets have lost their gains as big money is dumping into retail investors who think a 50 basis point cut will push us into a new bull market. Historically, data suggests rate cuts actually coincide with market tops/selling.
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#Crypto & the #StockMarket are hanging on by a thread. Tomorrow's #CPI data is 10x more important after $FTT collapse as investors are panicking. Hotter than expected CPI number could cause a deleveraging chain reaction in crypto causing more bk's & a stock market mini collapse.
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Remember in October 2021 when I said #Bitcoin would head to 20k and the cause would be a deleveraging event. Welcome to the deleveraging event (and it is not over yet). Also, that 90%+ of #crypto needs to be wiped out in a #Darwinian event? It has started #Luna @davidlin_TV.
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Starting to see the insanity return, money stepping over money to get in. That tells me the markets have not reached their ultimate lows. Near-term tech should be near topping out with two factors of resistance being kissed on the $QQQ. Looking for a near-term pullback here.
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To pre- answer questions, yes, I still think BTC gets to $25,500 maybe $28,000. And no, the bottom is not in, after this trade-able bounce, I still think Bitcoin heads to 12,000 or below. Hopefully this saves some questions lol.
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Today was the most bullish price action I have seen in a while on #Bitcoin. To hold up so well when the #StockMarket took a hammering, definitely unusual and shows relative strength.
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Putin is smart, he is using his 1 weapon against the west. All this war chatter is causing thngs like #oil #naturalgas & wheat to surge in price, pushing up inflation. Ultimately, this forces the #FederalReserve tighten monetary policy faster, likely forcing the US into recession.
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The more the market sells into next week's #FederalReserve meeting + #CPI, the more I favor an end of year rally. 2023 will be a very ugly year though.
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The bulls in the #StockMarket and #Crypto have sure gone quiet after hammering me for being bearish on #Bitcoin at the 31k level, saying it would test 28k and #Stocks would be at new all-time highs. I am neither a bull nor a bear, I am a trader. Short resistance, buy
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The irony of it all, weak inflation data pushes the markets sharply higher which then makes inflation go up and forces the #FederalReserve to raise interest rates higher. The Fed wants the markets lower, be careful of bear market rallies. #StockMarket #Investing #Trading.
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Stocks opened higher and gave up their gains once again. These are all signs of big money dumping. Most retail investors will ignore it as greed is more powerful, but I learned the hard way not to ignore it. early in my career.
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I can't help but nibble on some more #crypto here for a swing trade. $MATIC $LINK $ADA $BTC $SOL $AVAX. May regret it, but I have trained my brain to buy technical support and buy panic. Both showing themselves. Time will tell. .
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#Ethereum trying to close above its range today (looks likely). I will be watching for #Confirmation to signal the move to $1700ish. #Bitcoin still has not broken above $21,800, the key level there. $BTC $ETH $ADA $BNB $MATIC $XRP #Crypto.
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Excited to launch the #NoShillZone with @intocryptoverse. We are both technical, data driven traders/investors who will collaborate to share knowledge, insight & analysis on the #Crypto, #Stock & #Commodity markets. No Hype, No Emotion, No BS!. Every MONDAY at 11am ET. Link
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Did $ETH just complete its #BearMarket rally? .618 Fib retrace, pivot top from Nov 2022 and upsloping trend line from the June 2022 lows. Something to watch over the next few days. #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Charts #Reality
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Yikes on inflation #CPI. Locks in a 75 bps hike for September. Increases the likelihood the #FederalReserve will have to overtighten, thus pushing the economy info a recession at which point, they won't be able to get the economy out of recession as inflation remains elevated.
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Conspiracy theories on social media are 99.999% nonsense. They simply give the uneducated & those struggling a place to put blame besides themselves. If I believed half this stuff, I would have given up learning how to trade 20 yrs ago thinking the system was rigged against me.
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It was almost as if the #FederalReserve saw the market rallying on the initial statement (change in language) and then had #JeromePowell come out and push the markets lower. Fed wants asset prices to stay down. If markets rally, inflation will be harder to get under control.
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Example of brainwashed fandom: Elon Musk selling billions in $TSLA stock but tweets about 3M cars made (tiny compared to other major car makers). Investors rush to buy stock. He's either selling b/c he thinks it's going down or because he is buying $TWTR. Neither good for Tesla.
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The irony of #oil going higher. The higher it goes, the weaker it will make the economy killing demand, thus the lower it will go. Add more rate hikes by the #FederalReserve and once this oil bounce is over, next stop is sub $50.
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) buys another $4.6B in Bitcoin. Gotta wonder how much their buys are supporting Bitcoin vs. the real market.
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Monster rally into options expiration. Makes me think there were a ton of puts that needed to expire worthless for institutions to maximize their profit on options they sold to the retail crowd. #Truth #StockMarket #Investing #Options #Trading #Bitcoin #crypto.
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History Lesson: In Super Bowl XXXIV (played in 2000), there were so many #DotCom ads played (total of 14 different ones) that it was dubbed the "Dot-Com Super Bowl" & marked the top before many went bankrupt. This Sunday, the Super Bowl has many crypto commercials. #Food4Thought.
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#FederalReserveChair #JeromePowell says the fight to tame inflation is 'unconditional'. We will see their resolve when unemployment goes from 3%+ to 10%+. Will their resolve be as 'unconditional' then? I doubt it. My guess is 3-4% inflation will be A-OK to start printing again.
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Emotional radar is flashing as I see so many comments saying that the #FederalReserve will hike 75-100bps. Love it. Twitter becoming one of the most useful indicators I have.
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#Gold stages that lead to $3,000+/ounce. 1. Good News Is Bad News.This is the current state of the markets. Good news causes a Dollar and yield pop. Markets tend to sell slightly but a rising Dollar makes it hard for Gold to rally. Gold will chop sideways. 2. Bad News Is Good
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The Dollar/Yen continues to explode upwards. Something will break, much like what happened in the UK. The world is near financial collapse because the #FederalReserve is overcompensating for being wrong on 'transitory'. So much for the 'measured approach', they always strive for.
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$DXY reversing pop. Things top out when something very bullish initially causes a pop, then reverses & goes negative. I do have the the #Dollar into huge resistance + this should be peak $CPI print with oil, copper, nickel, lumber collapsing in last few weeks. #PeakInflation.
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The late day tank on the stock market yesterday does beg the question. who got the #CPI data before the public. That much volume & selling pressure was not just 'profit taking to be safe' before the data today that crushed markets. #Food4Thought #Hmmm #InsiderInfo @TheDomino.
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Earnings releases from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $TXN + housing data today it is clear the economy is collapsing toward recession. Keep in mind, the last two 0.75 rate hikes have not filtered in, let alone the next one coming next week. Like 'transitory' the Fed will be way off again.
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After patiently waiting for #Gold to pull back off its highs, it is finally nearing the buy level support. Note the chart below. #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #Silver #BuyTheDip #StockMarket #Commodity
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$META at $106 here reminds me of $NFLX when it was thrown out the window early in 2022 and traded down to $165 (now back to $300). I am a buyer down here, may take 6-12 months, but chart matches the fundamentals. #Stock #Trading #Investing.
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I sit behind a computer with screens surrounding me almost every day. Not good. Having a veggie garden and fruit trees is therapeutic as is getting some natural sun. Loving my cauliflower, tomatoes, beans, peas, peppers and papaya today. Hope everyone is having a wonderful
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Bank of Japan intervenes to try and prop up the #Yen. Notice how the #WallStreetJournal comments about the Fed pivot coincide with the #BOJ intervention. It means they are working together to avoid total collapse. Doubt they avoid it longer term, but near-term. nice.
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That pop was illiquidity meeting a break of the $32k level which triggered short covering. Classic. Now the real test if it can hold above 32k. or will it fail.
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Trader Market Update: Inside The Market Reversal. First thing to understand is that $NVDA had no chance. The stock had gained 25% in a week on a $1 trillion market cap. The stock had gained 500% in 10 months. Earnings were amazing, but smart money realizes this is as good as it.
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Just one of the reasons I still don't think this is a 'new bull market'. #StockMarket #BullMarket #Investing #Trading #Divergence #VerifiedInvesting #FederalReserve #Inflation #Recession
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Called it this morning on #CryptoBanter with @cryptomanran. #Bitcoin near-term bottom finally reached. These charts say it all. $BTC #StockMarket #Investing #Ethereum #Polkadot #Avalanche #Ripple #Tether #Cardano #Solana
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After an almost 35% vertical rally, $AAPL filled a major gap at $175. Technical factors signal an over 80% chance of a pull back off this level. A retrace to $158 is likely. #StockMarket #Trading #SwingTrade #Apple @KitcoNewsNOW @Stansberry @CNBCFastMoney
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#JeromePowell said "banks are fine" in his press conference. Que the egg on face as this evening, regional banks collapsing. PACW -57%, many others down 10-30%. The guy legit gets everything wrong. Just assume the opposite of what he says. #FederalReserve #Banks.
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#Transports are a leading indicator for the #StockMarket & thus economic sentiment. $IYT (transports ETF) rallied sharply but kissed the 200SMA today. That implies a pull back in the transports & thus a pull back in the market. #Investing @KitcoNewsNOW @davidlin_TV @Stansberry
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To the day, 1 month ago (July 14th) $NVDA topped out at $480.88. Today (August 14th) it hit a low of $403.11 before an epic rally. After hours today it is at $442. That is an epic 50% retrace of a drop that took 1 month in a $1 TRILLION company in 1 single day on no news, just.
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#Dollar fall tells us the markets believe the #FederalReserve is almost done raising rates after today's 75bp hike. My guess is Sept maybeeeee 25bps and its done. Hello nasty recession in 2023. But felt will be handcuffed to lower rates due to stubbornly high inflation (4%).
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Did $BTC collapse from the $30,500 level? Oh weird, almost like there was major resistance. Hmmm. Wish someone had warned us all about that exact level. #Crypto. Riding some shorts & scoping out long levels. $BTC $ETH $SOL $MATIC $AVAX $DOT.
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The signs were there. I tried to warn everyone.
#StockMarket warning: $SPX & $NASDAQ sharply higher but $VIX (volatility) is not dropping. This tells the trading community smart money is buying protection & to be careful. This isn't to say we cant go up for a few days, but is a bigger signal of trouble looming.
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Japan CPI hits 10 month high as Bank of Japan signals more rate hikes.
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Why is a debt downgrade from AAA to AA+ a big deal?. Like lowering of a credit score, it means there is more risk giving a loan thus lenders (to the US) will charge a higher interest rate. When the US has $32+ trillion in debt, $1 trillion in interest payments per yr already +.
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Trader Point of View on #ElonMusk buying $TWTR. The only reason #Twitter accepted the offer 2 days before earnings is because earnings are likely bad. If they rejected the offer and the stock tanked on earnings, they would be in big trouble. #FiduciaryResponsibility.
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Look at that #USDollar fall. Markets just love it. Dollar down is a risk on signal. How long will it last. .
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I believe in #Zuckerberg and his long term vision. It will likely make @Meta the most valuable company on the planet. But he also has to realize that investors dont care about 10 years from now, they care about 6-12 months from now. Long-term vision collides with near-term greed.
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Folks. Stop paying attention to the headline #CPI number that retail watches and start paying attention to the core CPI number that big money watches. That is the key. lol
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Still VERY possible to see the pre-Covid $SPX highs at 3,390 before year end. If not, high probability in first quarter 2023. Fed pushing economy towards a recession it won't be able to get us out of, as inflation will remain sticky at 4-5% longer-term. #StockMarket #Recession
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#Bitcoin playing out as the technical chart alerted us. Banked 25% on #Avalanche short, nicely in the money on #Ethereum and #Solana short. When $BTC was at 25k, FOMO was strong but charts told the truth. Here is the chart of key levels. #Crypto
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After $BTC failed here, I expect a pull back to $41,000. If history repeats, a move to $50k, maybe $52,500. then a fall to $24,000, then $18-$20K. Should be fun to trade and watch.
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Things to look for in tomorrow's #FederalReserve statement. 1. interest rate hike (75bps expected). 2. Commentary about pivoting (future hike guidance). 3. Press conference questions on what the Fed does if economy spirals into deep recession. 4. How many dissent within Fed.
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Bullish sentiment indicator is strong among retail. Close to a red flashing light. Be VERY careful going into September when summer light volume subsides. #StockMarket #StockTrading #Inflation #CPI #Investing #Trading
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New video release coming: Topic will be why the S&P & NASDAQ won't make new all-time highs for 15 yrs and where to stash that cash. Should be released around 12pm ET. #BreakingNews #StockMarket #TechnicalTrading #WinningTraderSeries #Investing #FederalReserve #Crypto.
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Likely 3 month probability forecast on #Bitcoin price action based on bearish megaphone pattern, still holding valid head/shoulder breakdown. It is negated if price confirms above $50k, til then, this is the likely outcome. #Ethereum #NFT #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis $BTC $DOT $BNB
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Yup. That is a #ToppingTail. Classic blow off top/institutional distribution signal. Also, notice the euphoria amongst retail. Nuts. Good eye!.
@GarethSoloway topping tail on the daily for BTC? I’ve learned a lot from you and being able to recognize things like this in the charts is a game changer!
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If you are a #StockMarket bull, this is the last thing you wanted to see. A nasty reversal of the #FederalReserve induced rally. Fed can only prop the market up for so long with comments when they keep pulling out liquidity, hand over fist. Not good for #Crypto either.
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2nd largest economy #China is in deep trouble. ---Retail Sales missed: Rising 2.5% vs expected 4.5%. ---Industrial Production missed: Rising 3.7% vs expected 4.4%. ---Fixed Asset Investing missed: Rising 3.4% vs expected 3.8%. Remember, when China reports numbers, economists.
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Where are those people who swore to me the stock market would hit new all-time highs in 2023?. I showed the pattern in the #NASDAQ and its identical twin from the dot-com era, I discussed higher-for-longer and that inflation would remain elevated at or above 3%. I showed the
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If #NaturalGas can fall 17% in a day, #oil can do the same. So much hot air and bullishness is never good. Marks a top almost every time. Talking heads preaching the safety of energy is another signal of a top.
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#Bitcoin note: When $BTC was at 65k-68k & hype was insane among investors triggering a mad rush to buy the 'breakout'. why didn't bitcoin surge? Think about it folks, someone was unloading into the hysteria. Bitcoin will breakout, just not when all little investors expect it.
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How pivotal is today's #FederalReserve decision? If the statement causes a break of the neck-line of the head and shoulder pattern, it may signal the 10 year yield going back to 2.05%. That has epic implications for what the economy will be going through. #TechnicalAnalysis
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