Gabriel Gavin
@GabrielCSGavin
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Covering energy, the EU, Russia, the Caucasus and the world with POLITICO. Author ‘Ashes of our Fathers: Inside the Fall of Nagorno-Karabakh,’ out Jan 2025.
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Bare shelves in Moscow tonight as Russians panic-buy rice, pasta and CocaCola.
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In an effort to simultaneously comply with Russian law and get around the issue that even the Kremlin isn’t actually sure which Ukrainian territories it has actually ‘annexed,’ Yandex Maps is no longer showing any international borders…
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For 30 years, the land crossing between Turkey and Armenia has been closed to traffic as a result of tensions.
Now, for the first time in three decades, a convoy of trucks has rolled across the Margara Bridge — bringing humanitarian aid to earthquake victims.
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Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to restore Russia as a superpower.
Now, distracted & defeated, Turkey is moving in to fill Moscow’s shoes from Libya to the Black Sea, while Erdoğan takes Putin’s seat at the table of great powers
Me for
@Telegraph
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Please consider not sharing photos identifying the New York Times journalist reportedly killed in Ukraine until it is clear his family have been notified.
This is a conflict playing out live on the internet but that doesn’t mean some basic decency isn’t still important.
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What’s happening in Nagorno-Karabakh right now is hugely significant, however you look at it. It’s a conflict that puts Russia, Turkey, Iran, US & EU at odds, with warnings 100,000+ people face humanitarian crisis. And yet there’s virtually no interest from most media outlets.
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A torchlit march in Yerevan tonight protesting Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Armenia is, formally at least, an ally of Moscow as a member of the CSTO military bloc, but anger is growing over the Kremlin’s refusal to intervene in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
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@__apf__
I feel like this is specifically a North America thing. I’ve lived out of dozens of (budget) Airbnbs in Europe and Asia and never even been asked to take the trash out or strip the beds.
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Good morning from the Armenian city of Goris.
Just across these mountains is the border with Azerbaijan & the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where there are warnings a full-scale war could break out.
I'm going to try and explain what both sides say is going on. THREAD 🧵
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Russian rapper Oxxxymiron has left the country and is holding an anti-war rally here in Istanbul.
Tickets sold out straight away and hundreds of young people have turned up to try and get in anyway.
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Protestors in Yerevan waving American flags and holding signs calling for withdrawal from the Russian-led CSTO military bloc, which has so far refused requests for intervention.
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A sea of vehicles is already forming on the highway to Kornidzor as hundreds — or likely thousands — of people flee Nagorno-Karabakh.
NEW: Dozens of trucks, vans and private cars are streaming across the border into Armenia after Azerbaijan said it would open the road from Nagorno-Karabakh.
I spoke to those getting out — and those left behind.
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Pelosi: The most recent round of violence was initiated by the Azeris, and there needs to be recognition of that.
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BREAKING: Russia is accusing the Armenian side of violating the ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh.
🇦🇲 🇦🇿 🇷🇺
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Armenia will stage major exercises with U.S. forces next week, named Eagle Partner 2023.
The move comes a day after Yerevan said it would provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, amid a worsening row with Russia & claims of a sizeable Azerbaijani troop buildup near the border.
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Food and medicine is running low in Nagorno-Karabakh as the near-total closure of the only road in or out stretches towards a fourth week
I spoke to people trapped behind the blockade, and the politicians deadlocked on what to do next — for POLITICO today
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Tsiolkovsky bookshop in Moscow, on the fourth floor of a residential building, above two massage parlours, and with only one sign to mark it out - it just says ‘books.’
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“They’ll give me an AK-47 but, as a woman, being captured isn’t an option, so I need to get hold of a pistol as well and save a bullet for myself.”
I meet the Armenians preparing for war, for
@unherd
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Fun update from Yerevan’s rental market - the price of my apartment is doubling to more than $2,000 dollars a month.
With more and more Russians arriving, landlords can basically charge London or Manhattan rates. Have seen several new arrivals sleeping on the street already.
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Russia’s Gazprom will supply Azerbaijan with up to 1 billion cubic metres of natural gas this winter, Moscow’s Kommersant reports, saying the deal will relieve domestic demand and help Baku meet its commitment to export more to the EU and other Western nations.
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Secretary of Armenia's Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, used interview yesterday to warn the country faces "pressure" to join the so-called Union State of Russia & Belarus.
Its refusal & efforts to "remain a sovereign state" mean 🇦🇲 now faces military confrontation, he claimed
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Things moving very quickly in Nagorno-Karabakh. Here’s a summary:
🛣 Lachin Corridor blocked for +30 hours now
🏡 3 villages along only route in/out cut off entirely
🇦🇲 Arm. officials warn of prelude to ethnic cleansing
🇦🇿 Az. media says ‘environmental protesters’ blocking route
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Astonishing text from a friend working in HR at a multinational Russian firm. Can verify several companies have similarly switched to online working in recent days, citing ‘Covid-19 cases.’
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NEW: The European Parliament has voted through a resolution declaring that the "ongoing forced exodus of the local Armenian population" from Nagorno-Karabakh "amounts to ethnic cleansing."
Calls on Commission to reconsider "strategic partnership" with Azerbaijan.
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Horrific scenes as second earthquake, reported to be as high as magnitude 7.5, hits southern Turkey.
Here, a news crew in Diyarbakir captured the moment another residential building collapses amid the tremors.
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Major protests in the centre of Yerevan today amid US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Armenia.
Demonstrators waving American flags and calling on Western nations for support.
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Shops in Nagorno-Karabakh are running low on food and other basic goods after more than three weeks of the only road in or out being sealed off to virtually all traffic. Officials warn the risk of famine is growing.
Photographs by Ani Balayan
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Thirty-three years ago today, 131 Azerbaijanis were killed and 744 wounded by Soviet forces on the streets of Baku in what became known as Black January, after Mikhail Gorbachev ordered the army to crack down on a growing movement calling for independence from the USSR.
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Two years ago today, the last of four rocket attacks hit the Azerbaijani city of Ganja during the Nagorno-Karabakh war with Armenia.
I visited the site of one strike recently — hard to overstate what it meant for Azerbaijanis, and continues to mean for their sense of security.
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“It’s like living in a cage – people running around looking for medicine while young mothers are helping each other find baby food”
The Lachin Corridor, the only road in or out of Nagorno-Karabakh, has now been closed for a week. My report for
@eurasianet
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A crowd of men, women & children is marching from Stepanakert in Nagorno-Karabakh to the Russian peacekeeping checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor, calling for the reopening of the only road in or out of the region after 11 days of blockade, with supplies of food & meds running low.
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NEW: Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan hits out at Russia's failure to reopen Lachin Corridor.
"If they can't secure stability and security in Nagorno-Karabakh, they should seek a UN mandate... becoming a silent witness to the depopulation of Nagorno Karabakh is unacceptable."
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In an interview with Reuters, a senior Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian official, Davit Babyan, says that “99.9% of our people will leave” in the face of “ethnic cleansing” by Azerbaijan.
Says world has abandoned them and those responsible “will have to answer to God for their sins.”
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I understand that part of covering this beat is fighting for column inches, and it’s holiday season with a busy news agenda. But we’re at the point where, frankly, it’s sloppy for international news desks not to be covering this.
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A dozen empty buses are now heading from Armenia towards the Lachin route and on to Nagorno-Karabakh. Many more evacuations expected.
NEW: Dozens of trucks, vans and private cars are streaming across the border into Armenia after Azerbaijan said it would open the road from Nagorno-Karabakh.
I spoke to those getting out — and those left behind.
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NEW: Officials in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh tell me they are unable to bring in supplies by helicopter, with the Lachin Corridor closed, due to fears “the Azerbaijani side threatens to shoot down any flying object.” They report shortages of basic goods already.
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NEW: Azerbaijan will not attend a hotly anticipated planned five-way crisis meeting scheduled to be held in Grenada tomorrow, officials in Baku and Brussels say.
Armenia, France, Germany and the EU had been invited, but representation from Turkey was reportedly blocked.
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A convoy of ten trucks is leaving Yerevan this morning for the border with Nagorno-Karabakh, as part of a relief effort led by Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo.
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Colonna says France is working on “a draft resolution aimed at guaranteeing a permanent international presence in Nagorno-Karabakh” that would enable Armenians who have fled “to return to their lands” in due course.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is now giving a press conference in Yerevan with her Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan.
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NEW: Dozens of trucks, vans and private cars are streaming across the border into Armenia after Azerbaijan said it would open the road from Nagorno-Karabakh.
I spoke to those getting out — and those left behind.
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While international borders had been coming and going (seemingly location-dependent) since June, now even regional and city boundaries have been removed.
"We continue to develop a physical & geographical map with an emphasis on natural objects," Yandex says.
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Armenia has ratified the Rome Statute, accepting the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, despite pressure from Russia.
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Quite surprising that this piece mentions neither Nancy Pelosi’s historic visit to Armenia, nor the diplomatic work being done by the US, nor the unprecedented anti-Russia demonstrations on the streets of Yerevan, nor the failure of the CSTO to step in.
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This was us — several shells came in. Nobody hurt as far as I know. Have left the area.
According to
@Infoteka_24
reports, foreign journalists appeared under
#Azerbaijan
's artillery strikes in
#Sotk
,
#Gegharkunik
region of
#Armenia
.
There is no information about causalities.
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SCOOP: Days after Azerbaijan launched an offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned lawmakers there could soon be an invasion of Armenia.
Speaking to me, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy chief insisted conflict isn’t on the cards
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A UN monitoring mission has reportedly arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh "to familiarize themselves with the situation on the ground and to determine the humanitarian needs of the residents," reports Azerbaijan's APA news agency.
UN teams have not visited the region for ~30 years.
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They’re just 18-years-old, but Edwin and his friends will be sitting out on the streets of Yerevan all night tonight, collecting everything from socks to cooking oil to coffee for the Armenian army.
“I’m a singer,” he says, “not a soldier. But I’ll help however I can.”
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Major protests in Yerevan today as Putin and Belarus’ Lukashenko visit Armenia for a CSTO military bloc summit.
“They are fascists,” one Armenian demonstrator in his sixties says. “We’re here to tell Putin he has no friends left.”
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This is one of the most important stories I've ever worked on. Right now, dozens of families are being forced to leave their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh
I spoke to the Armenians being pushed out - and the Azerbaijanis moving in - to understand the conflict
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has held talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan after reports Azerbaijani forces crossed the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian peacekeepers are said to have done nothing to stop what Yerevan says is a major escalation.
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@DominicPenna
There is no end of unremarkable, run of the mill regional cities across Europe that have way more of a nightlife than London does. And nobody seems to notice or think that’s strange.
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Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev openly talking about the prospect of invading Syunik, inside Armenia’s borders and known to Azerbaijanis as Zangezur.
Also linking the threat with demands for a settlement over Nagorno-Karabakh.
"They believed that all of Karabakh and Zangezur would remain at their hands. That is why they did not do anything on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. That is, without the delimitation of our border, no one can say where the border passes."
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Samvel, a farmer from the Armenian border village of Sotk, is one of those who has returned since the ceasefire has come in.
“I had to flee Azerbaijan in the 1990s, and I’ve been living here for 30 years. I built this house. Now, I don’t have anywhere else to go,” he says.
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A story about eggs from a contact in Nagorno-Karabakh.
With a rationing system now in place in the blockaded region families are left with what they can find on the shelves or grow in their gardens. But locals say people are coming together to support each other as best they can
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On Wednesday, the Armenian village of Sotk was being shelled.
Now, under a tentative ceasefire, people are coming back — with homemade vodka, pickles and kompot.
Most of the residents are Armenian refugees displaced from inside Azerbaijan. “We won’t run away again,” one says.
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Thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets of Chișinău today for a rally supporting Moldova’s application to join the European Union.
President Maia Sandu to speak shortly alongside European Parliament president Roberta Metsola.
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NEW: Armenia’s Foreign Ministry is warning that the risk of famine is “tangible” in Nagorno-Karabakh since the closure of the Lachin Corridor, and calls for an international fact finding mission to the breakaway region.
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Armenia is sounding the alarm over fears Azerbaijan could launch a new offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, as politicians in Baku talk of "cleansing" the region.
With Russian forces off fighting Putin's war, are they on their own?
Me for
@spectator
in Yerevan
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Intense shelling near Armenian town of Sotk, on the border with Azerbaijan. Several fires burning, hearing artillery every minute or so.
Shell hit the apple tree near this house. Its residents have been forced to flee.
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This election is going to take forever if Macron is counting them one by one.
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Yerevan's Regional Center for Democracy and Security reports that eyewitnesses serving on the front lines in Nagorno-Karabakh say Russian peacekeepers pulled back from their positions just moments before Azerbaijani forces launched their offensive.
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"We're running out of medicines to treat children with epilepsy," a neurologist in Nagorno-Karabakh tells me as the closure of the only road in or out stretches into its second week
The cost of escalating tensions between Armenia & Azerbaijan, for
@unherd
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“Everyone is saying they care about us, but where are they?”
We spoke to EU diplomats, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy chief, experts and Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh as the West weighs up what to do next.
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It's been one month, one week and one day since the start of the near-total blockade of the only road in or out of Nagorno-Karabakh.
For forty days, Armenians living there have watched as food & medicine supplies run low.
But how did we get here? A short thread
(📸Ani Balayan)
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According to Kommersant, Lavrov asked Liz Truss if the UK accepts Voronezh & Rostov as part of Russia.
“We will never recognise Russian sovereignty over these regions,” she apparently replied.
The British ambassador is said to have gently corrected her
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Armenians will say they’ve been more or less ignored by the international community since the 2020 war. Azerbaijanis will say join the club and point to 30 years of silence from Western media.
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NEW: An attack on Azerbaijan's embassy in the Iranian capital, Tehran, has reportedly claimed the life of the diplomatic mission's head of security and left two guards injured, Baku’s Foreign Ministry has announced.
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Lithuania, which has emerged as a supporter of Armenia in recent weeks, announces it will send a financial assistance package to help those who fled their homes in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Lithuania is sending €350k humanitarian aid to Armenia to help address the immediate needs of those who fled from Nagorno Karabakh. We support Armenia’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity and the path of democracy chosen by the Armenian people.
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Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh confront Russian peacekeepers on the Lachin Corridor after almost two weeks of the only road in or out of the breakaway region being sealed off, and with supplies of food and medicine running low.
Photograph by Hrayr Badalyan
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The European Union has agreed to send civilian observers to Armenia on a mission that will last as long as two years, RFERL reports today.
Understand from officials talks had been ongoing for weeks now, and that an unknown number of monitors will be deployed to the border.
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Armenian civil defence group VOMA trains volunteers in military tactics and first aid in case of war.
“Last week, we had 15 people coming. This week we have nearly 200,” one organiser tells me. “Young, old, men, women — now everyone wants to know how to defend our country.”
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NEW: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has informed the Russian-led CSTO military alliance that it would be “inappropriate” for the bloc to hold exercises in his country, with frustration growing at Moscow’s inaction over Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Russian outpost near Armenia’s southern border with Azerbaijan.
The caption next to the portrait of Putin reads “forever together.”
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Warnings of a dire humanitarian crisis unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh have exposed a split between MEPs, who are calling for EU sanctions on Azerbaijan, and the Commission — which is loathe to alienate an important regional ally and oil & gas supplier.
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A few weeks ago, I interviewed Mohubett & his mother from the village of Aghali.
They’re Azerbaijanis & their village in Nagorno-Karabakh was levelled by Armenian forces after the 1990s war.
The day the 2020 ceasefire was signed, he went back to find the ruins of his home.
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The State Department is refusing to explain a delay in renewing a waiver that allows Azerbaijan to receive U.S. military support.
Now, amid the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian groups & bipartisan lawmakers are upping their campaign to see it scrapped
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NEW: In a statement, the EU’s top
diplomat Josep Borrell accuses Azerbaijan of disregarding a ruling from the ICJ to allow movement along the Lachin corridor into Nagorno-Karabakh.
Says Aghdam road is not an alternative to Lachin.
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A mixed-faith cemetery in southern Armenia with graves of both ethnic Armenians and Azeris dating back as far as 1885 and as recently as 1984.
Most of the Azerbaijani-language headstones have been smashed. The village is now home to Armenian refugees who fled the Sumgait pogroms
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Melanie O'Brien, the President of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, warns that "we are well beyond 'risk'" of genocide in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The situation in
#NagornoKarabakh
#Artsakh
is dire. The first death from
#starvation
has been reported, after 8 mths of a blockade of the
#Lachin
Corridor has prevented the 120,000 people in Artsakh from accessing
#food
&
#healthcare
.
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A summit of former Soviet states was supposed to demonstrate Moscow had half a dozen allies for its war in Ukraine.
Instead, it showed just how isolated Putin’s project to revive the Cold War has made him.
My report from the sidelines of the CSTO meeting
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This, from a Russian woman I know very well, is probably the darkest window into how those who don’t have the money, jobs or connections to leave are feeling right now.
Protest and you face rape, torture & prison; leave, you face poverty & uncertainty; stay, you poison your soul
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In a call with the Kremlin earlier today, French President Emmanuel Macron told Vladimir Putin that now is the time for Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine and pull its troops out of the country. He urged Moscow to begin negotiations to end the war, according to the Élysée.
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After the European Parliament condemned Azerbaijan’s human rights record & accused it of blockading Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaija’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee accuses Brussels of being influenced by the Armenian diaspora, which it calls “a cancerous tumor”
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Mass panic in Stepanakert, sound of gunfire in the air and unverified reports Azerbaijani troops entering the city. Two local residents tell me they are now fleeing their homes.
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Armenians are today observing Remembrance Day, commemorating the victims of the 1915 genocide.
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Alexey Venediktov, the former editor of the now-shuttered Echo of Moscow, reportedly had a pig’s head placed outside his front door, along with the coat of arms of Ukraine emblazoned with an anti-Semitic slur - for opposing the war.
If this is what “de-Nazification” looks like…
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It’s been less than a year since I was last in Goris amid new clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Now, just a few miles from here, the Lachin Corridor — the only way in or out of the breakaway region — is under near-total blockade, with supplies running low and tensions running high.
Good morning from the Armenian city of Goris.
Just across these mountains is the border with Azerbaijan & the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, where there are warnings a full-scale war could break out.
I'm going to try and explain what both sides say is going on. THREAD 🧵
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The European Commission has replaced its previous statement that referred to people who "decided to flee" Nagorno-Karabakh with one that expresses "solidarity" with those "who had no choice but to flee."
However, it is still using an outdated figure that's half the current count
Approximately 13.500 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh have arrived in Armenia.
The needs are increasing.
In solidarity with those who had no choice but to flee, we are boosting our humanitarian funding with €5 million.
Read more ↓
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NEW: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has reportedly refused to meet with Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib after she travelled to Baku today.
Comes as Lahbib publicly reiterated the EU's position, demanding the reopening of the Lachin Corridor to Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili praises Azerbaijan’s detention of ex-Karabakh Armenian leader Ruben Vardanyan “who actively supported Russian aggression in Ukraine.”
Says “unique opportunities” opening up & future generations won’t forgive Georgia for missing them.
ჩვენს გარშემო მიმდინარეობს ბოროტებისა და სიკეთის დაპირისპირება. აზერბაიჯანმა დააკავა რუბენ ვარდანიანი - რუსი მილიარდერი, რომელიც აქტიურად უჭერდა მხარს რუსეთის აგრესიას უკრაინაში, ასევე ე.წ. არცახის საგარეო საქმეთა მინისტრი - დავით ბაბაიანი, რომელიც აქტიურად ავითარებდა ყარაბაღის
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“There were days during my pregnancy when I know I didn’t get enough food,” says Maria. Her twin girls were born on Sunday.
“And now it’s not just about food. There’s no toilet paper, no toothpaste, no baby formula, no clothes for the children.”
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NEW: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been invited to address the European Parliament, following a meeting with its president, Roberta Metsola, in Granada.
Armenia needs our support and assistance to deal with the current humanitarian crisis caused by thousands of people leaving Nagorno-Karabakh.
I met Prime Minister
@NikolPashinyan
in Granada today and invited him to address
@Europarl_EN
's Plenary Session.
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“As a result of events in Ukraine, the capabilities of Russia have changed,” Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan tells POLITICO.
“Russian peacekeepers have failed in their mission” in Nagorno-Karabakh & Yerevan must fix relations with Azerbaijan itself, he said.
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Earlier this week, I met a group of children stranded away from home through Christmas & New Year because of the blockade on the only road to Nagorno-Karabakh.
I've written about the crisis, & the efforts to get them back to their families, for
@spectator
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70,500 people have now left Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Everyone is saying they care about us, but where are they?”
We spoke to EU diplomats, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy chief, experts and Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh as the West weighs up what to do next.
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“Where were you when we were in Karabakh? You want to film? Here are my legs.”
NEW: Dozens of trucks, vans and private cars are streaming across the border into Armenia after Azerbaijan said it would open the road from Nagorno-Karabakh.
I spoke to those getting out — and those left behind.
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Armenia has announced the creation of a Foreign Intelligence Service, appointing former human rights ombudsman Kristine Grigoryan to head the agency.
Officials say the new intelligence agency will "forecast external threats & opportunities to our state."
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Patient transfers from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia with the Red Cross have been halted indefinitely after a 68-year-old Armenian man crossing the checkpoint was detained by Azerbaijani forces.
A Red Cross rep is reportedly still with the man, but his whereabouts are unknown.
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