GLJ Research, LLC
@GLJ_Research
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$TSLA we raised our 2023E yr-end price objective to $73/shr, and are incrementally less bearish (i.e., we see -89.9% downside by yr-end 2023E vs. -92.4% downside before) ahead of Q2 results 🚗⚡️
@GordonJohnson19
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We've been asked, by many recently, how we arrive at our yr-end 2023E PT of $23.44 (or -82.5% downside from today's closing price). So... here it is, as we've previously published.
@GordonJohnson19
@GLJ_Research
$TSLA
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#TSLA
#TSLAQ
@SquawkCNBC
@chamath
Can someone point us to the data center where TSLA stores its millions of miles in real-world "data"?
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"This is kind of crazy. $NIO is trading at a market cap of ~$98B, above VW. $NIO has sold 47,000 cars this year. VW is estimated to sell ~10M cars," says
@GLJ_Research
's Gordon Johnson. "You're talking about margins that are grossly negative ... we think people are being misled."
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$TSLA $TSLAQ We see TSLA’s 1Q20 deliveries coming in around 76K, vs. the current Consensus est. of around 100K. And, we also believe TSLA is including items in its primarily illusionary $11.6bn in current liquidity (our opinion) that it does not have access to, to include:...
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Some thoughts on a few of the TSLA mistruths that we continue to see peddled on major TV outlets by the "TSLA optimists”... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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@SquawkCNBC
@chamath
$TSLA
#TSLA
When adjusting TSLA's free cash flow for the methodology used by Amazon (whom TSLA is often compared), it burned -$1.0bn in 2019 (vs. it reporting a +$1.1bn gain) and burned -$1.2bn in the first two quarters of 2020 (i.e., 2x worse than '19).
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$TSLA For the month of November 2019, year-over-year growth for Tesla's Model 3, Model S, Model X, and total cars sold came in at -44%, -64%, -47%, and -46%, respectively. At risk of stating the obvious, sales of Tesla cars in its core market of the US are currently in...
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"What's happening with GameStop over the past four days is essentially what happened with Tesla over the past year," says
@GLJ_Research
's Gordon Johnson $TSLA $GME. "You have essentially guys coming in and using call options ... to press the shorts."
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@SquawkCNBC
@chamath
$TSLA
#TSLA
Is this what hypergrowth/10yr lead/strong demand looks like - (a) US sales peak in 4Q18 (despite 4 price cuts in '20), (b) EU market share & growth imploding (despite several price cuts), & (c) China sales stagnating despite 7 price cuts this yr?
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@CNBCWEX
@FrankCNBC
@GordonJohnson19
- GLJ Research thoughts on tonight's earnings and EV fires ahead of TSLA's 2Q21 earnings tonight.
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"The stock is completely detached with reality," says $TSLA bear
@GordonJohnson19
. "Tesla is trading at a $178B market cap versus roughly $76B for VW. Last year, VW sold 10 million cars. Tesla sold 300,670 cars."
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… $TSLA free-fall. Why journalists aren’t focusing on this remains a mystery to us (particularly given the focus seems to be China, and Tesla’s October 2019 China sales fell -91.5% moth-over-month to 763 cars from 5,984 in September 2019).
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$SEDG (1) We have a SELL rating and $58/shr (-72% downside) 2021 yr-end price target on microinverter bellwether SolarEdge (“SEDG”; $208.24/shr). Despite offering a highly commoditized product (i.e., an ASIC microinverter that is provided by a number of vendors in China)...
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$TSLA Despite TSLA's stock closing close to the 52-week high today, it appears E. Musk may have tweeted another claim that could potentially be in violation of his agreement w/ the SEC, implying a spate of bad news may be on the horizon (i.e., his claim that TSLA received 142K
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$TSLA Over the 2010-to-2019 timeframe, BEV's have grown to just ~1.72% of the global auto market... this is "disruptive technology"?
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Today, we discussed our bullish views on uranium⛏️, BUY rated Cameco - $CCJ - what we believe will be trouble in the solar space in 2023E🌞, and of course $TSLA, and it's China sales announced today... with BNN's always SHARP
@AndrewBellBNN
.
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(1)Battery Moat Argument: This was never a thing; TSLA buys its batteries from Panasonic, and plans on buying the batteries for its China factory from a Chinese producer; TSLA does not make its own batteries; thus, at risk of stating the obvious, there is... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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Did TSLA stuff the China channel by selling hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cars to its own affiliate? In our most recent update, we delve into this question in a bit more detail.
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… a bit ridiculous. (3) 1 Million Robotaxis: To be fully autonomous, one has to be at level 5 autonomy. As seen below, Navigant Consulting recently ranked TSLA 2nd from last in autonomous driving; furthermore, TSLA is currently at level 2, or not... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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Despite Several Price Cuts & Other Discounts, TSLA's Sale of Cars in the US Fell -23% y/y for the Month of Sep. & -21.8% y/y During 3Q19 $TSLA
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Today, we update our thoughts on $TSLA's 🚗just-reported 4Q22 results w/
@jchatterleyCNN
, to include what to expect moving forward, demand, price cuts,
@elonmusk
's future projections⚡️, and if one should take him a face value.
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The numbers are just out this am from $FCA, $F, and $GM. $TSLA's 3Q19 US sales were down -22% y/y, while $FCA's were down -5%, $F's were flat y/y, and $GM's were flat y/y (based on Bloomberg ests.). So, looking at just the US numbers, TSLA is by far the worse off in 3Q19.
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Despite 5 price cuts in China in 2020, TSLA's market share fell from ~20% to ~11%.
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GLJ Research CEO and Founder Gordon Johnson discusses Tesla’s outlook amid their S&P 500 entrance:
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… even close to 5, which is required to be fully autonomous (); this is another outright mistruth that continues to be peddled by the “optimistic experts”.
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… For investors to say TSLA is the only one capable of OTA updates is simply wrong; this isn’t even up for debate; and to give TSLA future value, in 2030, for tech. all auto makers will have basically next year, seems... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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Today our CEO/founder discusses $TSLA 🚗 with the always SHARP
@TheDomino
, focusing on: (a) falling backlog📉, (b) margin-slashing price cuts😱, and (c) $TSLA's position as a tech laggard (NOT leader)🧐.
@GordonJohnson19
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… (these two - and - are from just this weekend); were this a kid’s toy, a kid’s medicine, or almost any other product, the Feds would have pulled it. $TSLA $TSLAQ
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(2)Over the Air Updates (“OTA”): Currently Porsche’s Taycan EV, Jaguar’s i-Pace EV, and Cadillacs’ EV are equipped for OTA updates; furthermore, all of Ford’s and GM’s EV cars will have this in 2020 (and likely every other EV) - ... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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We are happy to be live on twitter. We look forward to providing insights into a number of industries, including solar, steel, cannabis, rails, Li-Ion, and electric vehicles, as well as China/US macro insights.
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@MarvinHank
@ShellenbergerMD
@camecocommunity
@UraniumSir
@UraniumEquities
GLJ Research rates Cameco (CCO CN) BUY, with a C$27/shr 2021E price target (+79% upside from today's trading price). We only provide opinions on stocks we cover.
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… (b) a mile driven is not some universal standard; think about it this way… do you collect more driving a mile with a go pro taped to your dash (as TSLA has) or with 20 cameras and radar and lidar (i.e., Google's "mile driven" has more sensors and is... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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have a base on Mars in 2028, have a one hour bodyshop for TSLA repairs, etc. we see the claim by TSLA that it has created a new steel alloy as yet another "tall tale".
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$TSLA $TSLAQ TSLA said, last night, they have capacity for 640K cars right now, and will have capacity for 740K cars by mid-2020. However, they gave guidance for ~500K shipped in 2020 (or, capacity utilization of ~78% currently, and ~67.6% in mid-2020). Notwithstanding the...
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… no moat, and the only auto vendor (who is Chinese-based) that we are aware of who has outsourced TSLA’s “open sourced patents” is currently being sued by TSLA for patent infringement (); no one else (BMW + Mercedes + Porsche + Ford +... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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GLJ Research Founder & CEO Gordon Johnson discusses what to expect from Tesla’s Q4 earnings report:
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… allegedly died relying on TSLA’s “full-self-drive” technology (7 people have allegedly died, that we’re aware of – ); any many, many more have been injured... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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GLJ Research initiates coverage of Tesla Inc., providing insights into the true scope of the potential Walmart liability (based on GLJ Research's analysis), as well as what to expect into 3Q19 earnings. GLJ Research also does a deep dive into expected 3Q19 deliveries $TSLA
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As we’ve highlighted previously, we believe TSLA overpaid for SCTY (our opinion). The excerpt below seems to provide some confirmation to our opinions here.
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$TSLA $TSLAQ
Highlight: “A lot of the euphoria around Tesla is the impenetrable armor of Elon Musk and with him calling the stay at home order fascist… it’s going to rub a lot of people the wrong way,” GLJ Research Founder & CEO Gordon Johnson says.
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(4)Miles Driven Argument: Finally, there are three key problems with the miles driven theory: (a) Tesla doesn't collect all of the data; and, for those who have checked their bandwidth, it is clear Tesla only collects a small portion of those miles,... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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Today, we took our PT on X up to a Street-high $39.55 & reiterated our BUY rating. After running the HRC forward curve through our model, then backing into the implied valuation multiples for X, we calculate X trades at a 57-81% discount to its steel peers NUE & STLD.
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… examined in detail); in short, Google’s version has a lot more data real-world data than TSLA, and (c) Google (and others) do billions and billions of miles in simulation with regression testing,... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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Today, we lowered our '24E yr-end price objective on $TSLA to $23.53/shr, from $24.33/shr prior. In short, we moved from using a 20-yr DCF analysis to value $TSLA (which involves thousands of inputs), to employing a much more simplified P/E multiple framework.
@GordonJohnson19
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@GLJ_Research
/
@GordonJohnson19
discuss TSLA's
@Hertz
deal, and why the (at best) $500mn one-time benefit from
@Hertz
should not have driven the stock up $200bn🤔. We also discuss TSLA market share losses🙄and why 2022E is looking tough for TSLA 📉
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… GM + about 100 Chinese EV makers + etc.) has attempted to use TSLA’s “open source patents” for their battery technology. $TSLA $TSLAQ
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GLJ Research discusses $TSLA and
#China
's credit problems. We also discuss our expectation on $TSLA's earnings, as well as
#China
's
#EV
market share.
@GordonJohnson19
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cybertruck orders, which contradicts the language in the cybertruck pre-order agreement that “This Pre-Order Payment and this Agreement are not made or entered into in anticipation of or pending any conditional sale contract". Furthermore, while E. Musk
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"The problem for Tesla is there is massive competition coming next year," says analyst
@GordonJohnson19
on why he remains bearish on the company. "Every auto company in the world is coming for Tesla's neck." $TSLA
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$TSLA $TSLAQ … (a) $1.3bn in cash held by foreign subsidiaries, (b) $106mn in variable interest entity cash, (c) $1.5bn in China bank debt tied to its China plant construction and working capital, and (d) $933mn in warehouse facility revolver capacity. It is our...
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@GLJ_Research
discusses why we feel E. Musk is calling for an "end" to Biden's spending bill🧐. We also discuss why we feel the planned $140bn for EVs in Biden's BBB bill is among the largest, & most wasteful, public policy objectives in U.S. history🤔.
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@SquawkCNBC
@chamath
#TSLA
$TSLA So... BEV penetration will grow to 18% by '30 vs. 1.87% today, and TSLA will maintain 25-30% mkt share, despite a #'r of established automakers saying they are going to grow sales into the millions of EVs/yr? Seems unlikely looking at the data.
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6 Negative Headlines Overnight in China Haunt Tesla $TSLA - GLJ Research
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$TSLA $TSLAQ … strong opinion TSLA does not have (any) access to these funds for general corporate purposes as suggested in the company’s 3/19/20 8-K. Adding it all up, we believe TSLA has access to $5.7bn in liquidity, not the $11.6bn the company is pointing to. While...
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$TSLA
#TSLA
After's $TSLA's quarter, some analysts point to the tax credits received. Does it matter? Analyst
@GordonJohnson19
weighs in: "...it matters when their revenues essentially start to decline, which they have been ... them pulling forward all this credit revenue confuses people."
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TSLA's market share collapsed in China when competition arrived.
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"One analyst who did accurately predict a miss for the quarter, however, was GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson, who predicted in late September that Tesla would see Q3 deliveries of about 348,000 versus consensus estimates at the time of 355,000."
@GordonJohnson19
@GLJ_Research
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$TSLA $TSLAQ admittedly impressive vs. its historical cash balance, with our est. that TSLA will burn ~$4.5bn in cash associated with inventory build alone in 1H20, we see another dilutive capital raise as likely before the end of 2Q20. Be careful of those taking TSLA’s $1.6bn...
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My interview of
@GLJ_Research
in which he dismantles myths about renewables, details his first-hand experience of how positive bias is the sell-side research bus model, discusses being a black man on Wall St. and talks $TSLA is now live on
@zer0estv
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TSLA's market share collapsed in the EU when competition arrived.
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$TSLA $TSLAQ With pollution levels in Shanghai sitting at just 23.9% of the 6-year average as of 2/14, we believe industrial production in Shanghai may be running as much as 75% below potential capacity. Interestingly, after declining through much of early Feb., then...
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@GordonJohnson19
Our 2Q21 and 2021 TSLA delivery estimate(s) published early last week. Also... keep in mind... people are waiting for TSLA's new FSD release - if they don't do it (via OTA) today, they will miss the 2Q21 revenue deadline.
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$TSLA $TSLAQ … number without any further scrubbing (it could prove misleading – our opinion).
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$TSLA $F What real "technology disruption" looks like, vs. the current perception in the market. Imagine if EVs had grown their market share by 20% since 2011 vs. the actual 1.3% they've actually gained. Seems many aren't looking at the "numbers".
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Our thoughts on
#uranium
,
#FederalReserve
,
#USS
#CannabisNews
,
#SolarPower
,
#Sprott
,
#TSLA
,
#StockMarket
, and
#EVs
w/
@42macroDDale
-
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… arguably more valuable; comparing miles on the road (which, again, isn't apples to apples) leaves out simulator miles; what’s the proof Google is doing better? Well… look at all the people who have... $TSLA $TSLAQ
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$TSLA $TSLAQ Looking to the data, we note that based on preliminary Research, LLC figures, TSLA’s USA Model 3 sales were down -30.3% y/y in 4Q19, while USA Model S+X sales were down -29.6% y/y in 4Q19. Further, it appears TSLA's total USA sales were...
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claimed over the weekend that the lack of curvature in the cybertruck was due to a new steel alloy, which will be created "at Tesla", and "breaks the stamping press", similar to E. Musk's claims that he would have a flying roadster, make brake pads that never need replacing,
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“Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter“ - Martin Luther King Jr.
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Highlight: “The story on Tesla, if you ask anybody, is that it’s a hypergrowth company,” GLJ Research Founder & CEO Gordon Johnson says. “The facts are, since the 4th quarter of 2018, essentially, Tesla’s revenues haven’t grown.”
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$TSLA $TSLAQ … it selling 367.5K cars in 2019 vs. VW selling ~10.5mn cars, implying TSLA needs to see exponential growth to justify its valuation). Our focus at GLJ Research, LLC is fundamental analysis.
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