Geopolitical Intelligence Services
@GIS_Reports
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We provide analysis and forecasting on world affairs, written by leading global experts in politics, economics, defence, security and energy.
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GIS was founded in Liechtenstein, a neutral nation shaped by decisions and events beyond its borders.
Our commitment to objectivity, supported by our meticulous selection of experts, ensures that GIS remains fact-driven, providing you with reliable information.
Hear more from
1
1
3
NEW REPORT: President Bola
#Tinubu
has taken daring steps to stabilize
#Nigeria
’s public finances, but more is needed to realize the potential of the richly endowed country.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Teresa Nogueira Pinto (
@Teresa_np
):
86
211
3K
A self-declared anarcho-capitalist, he is, in reality, a free-market advocate who champions the power of the private sector, entrepreneurial initiatives, the vital benefits of competition and a streamlined government. Argentina desperately requires this remedy despite the initial
46
171
911
Javier
#Milei
’s victory in
#Argentina
’s election marks the end of a close political flirt with China, which has been ramping up cooperation with Latin America as part of its strategic goal to gain space supremacy.
Read more in our report by
@awgadzala
:
19
134
690
Next week,
#Kenya
will host the continent's first climate summit.
@MvLiechtenstein
reminds us that Africa doesn't fit neatly into the boxes that the West keeps trying to create for it:
2
40
581
Claudia
#Sheinbaum
has been elected as
#Mexico
's first woman president. As Dr. John Polga-Hecimovich (
@jpolga
) wrote in October 2023, one question that arises after Ms. Sheinbaum’s win is whether she will be charismatic enough to carve her own path or if she will have to rely on
32
93
591
NEW REPORT: India is taking advantage of close cultural and historical ties to increase its trade footprint and geopolitical influence across the continent.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Teresa Nogueira Pinto (
@teresa_np
):
4
65
557
NEW REPORT: Ankara’s many-sided approach to cooperation with Africa is bearing fruit.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Teresa Nogueira Pinto (
@teresa_np
):
9
44
538
President-elect Sheinbaum’s mandate is to maintain and expand AMLO’s policies. Geopolitically, she is not likely to alter Mexico’s Venezuela policy, ally the country with Ukraine or oppose Russia or China.
What else to expect from the President of Mexico? Read our newest report
17
152
551
Following a student-led uprising, Bangladesh's Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, resigned, and the president dissolved the parliament.
Read more about the importance of Bangladesh as a country close to China – especially in terms of strategies around the India-China border – in our
55
29
499
NEW REPORT: Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will likely maintain many of her iconoclastic predecessor’s policies, while forging her own path on issues like security and energy.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Polga-Hecimovich (
@jpolga
):
35
155
522
What was the purpose of the Chinese weather balloon over the United States?
Espionage
1472
Reconnaissance
934
Weather b. off course
364
Provocation
1074
111
136
414
Peru’s attorney general’s office presented a constitutional complaint against President Dina Boluarte in an alleged corruption case.
Peru remains a country with fragile leadership, as forecast by GIS expert John Polga-Hecimovich (
@jpolga
):
28
58
461
Nigeria needs to act on at least one of its export initiatives to boost the long-term viability of its gas industry and create some optimism for the country’s overall economic improvement.
Read more in our newest report by Dr. Nakhle (
@carole_nakhle
):
10
54
411
While South Africa continues to attract the largest number of international travelers to Southern and Eastern Africa, tourism interest there has stagnated in recent years compared to rising destinations like Kenya, Tanzania, Botswana and Namibia. Since collapsing in 2020 after
2
25
414
Ecuadorian port cities and their suburbs have become hotspots for exports of South American cocaine to Europe and the United States, and in some cases, of gruesome violence associated with drug trafficking and organized crime. President Daniel Noboa’s mano dura (iron fist)
10
102
351
NEW REPORT: A center-left ruling team is about to replace a conservative one in Warsaw. Expect improved relations with Brussels and Berlin and shifts in many current policies.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Matt Boyse:
88
33
334
Why did Turkey decide to finally advance Sweden’s bid for NATO membership?
Western ties improved
447
Swedish anti-terror laws
432
faster sales of US F-16s
1723
other (please comment)
549
61
23
256
India has the world’s largest population and the fifth-largest economy, growing faster than any other among the top 10.
The multipolar world order that India has sought for over seven decades may not be a reality yet, but India is certainly in a unique position today.
Read more
2
24
239
The Romanian paradox: impressive economic performance despite the perception of unimpressive governance and political processes.
It offers two clear scenarios, both with equal chances of prevailing.
17
54
228
NEW REPORT: In what may prove a devil’s pact, Salvadorans have exchanged their constitutional checks and balances for a restoration of security on the streets.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. John Polga-Hecimovich (
@jpolga
):
69
66
246
President
#Biden
and former President Donald
#Trump
joined the first presidential debate of the election season.
Dr. James Jay Carafano (
@JJCarafano
) sheds light on the problem of China challenging American preeminence in the Western hemisphere and how the upcoming elections in
19
39
237
Around 22 countries negotiated and explored bilateral trade with
#India
in rupees. Is this another sign of the reassessment of the dollar's global status?
@Colombatto
writes that India will likely need at least a decade to build enough weight in terms of GDP and international
1
11
227
Police in
#India
fired tear gas and water cannons to scatter thousands of farmers trying to stage a protest march to Delhi after they rejected a government offer on prices for their produce.
Already in 2022,
@PramitWorld
wrote that government subsidies and inadequate investment
12
25
216
NEW REPORT: The prospect of military interference looms large in
#Pakistan
.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Aparna Pande (
@Aparna_Pande
):
11
50
186
NEW REPORT: The fallout of the Kremlin’s war against
#Ukraine
includes
#Russia
's loss of influence over ex-Soviet republics.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Paweł Kowal (
@pawelkowalpl_EN
):
3
58
207
NEW REPORT:
#Egypt
’s hopes for becoming a regional
#gas
production powerhouse and
#LNG
export hub are thwarted by question marks over its social and political stability.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Carole Nakhle (
@carole_nakhle
):
5
15
196
NEW REPORT: Expectations that June’s revolt would lead to a regime change were misplaced. Instead, the Russian state will enter a phase of slow decay.
Read more in a new
#GISreport
by Pawel Kowal (
@pawelkowalpl_EN
):
27
33
174
The conflicting territorial claims in Kashmir significantly strain Pakistan’s security as they perpetuate regional tensions with India and fuel militant activities within its borders.
Read more in our newest report by Ambassador Husain Haqqani (
@husainhaqqani
):
4
20
176
NEW REPORT: Discontent with the status quo led to a close 2022 election in the ex-Portuguese colony, which is still healing from civil war and facing tough economic challenges.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
about
#Angola
's economy:
21
27
178
NEW REPORT: Baku is seizing the opportunity to become a power broker and cash in as a crucial transit country with Turkey.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Stefan Hedlund (
@Sarimner
):
2
13
178
NEW REPORT: President Milei has proposed that Argentina adopt the U.S. dollar to help cure its economic woes. Politics and his own fiscal policy currently stand in the way.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Nicolas Cachanosky (
@n_cachanosky
):
8
35
174
yes
2050
no
925
other (share in comments)
167
21
31
162
At this year’s Munich Security Conference, European defense was a huge topic of debate.
GIS founder and chairman Prince Michael of Liechtenstein (
@MvLiechtenstein
), argues in this week’s comment that Europe needs to achieve military sovereignty:
5
29
148
NEW REPORT:
#Germany
woke up too late to the risks of
#energy
dependence on
#Russia
.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Carole Nakhle (
@carole_nakhle
):
9
35
135
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, have flown to Mauritania to sign a series of deals on migration and energy, as there has been a surge in people-smuggling operations to the Canary Islands.
Our report by
14
60
157
Will Elon
#Musk
's Twitter takeover:
protect freedom of speech
307
limit freedom of speech
68
increase hate speech
327
other
78
21
44
140
What do you think of political outsiders coming to power?
Fresh perspective
1126
Risky move
539
No change
232
Other (please comment)
84
10
20
149
#Poland
's ruling nationalists appeared to have lost their parliamentary majority. What happens politically in Central Europe is crucial for the future of Ukraine.
Read more in our recent report by
@KP_Schwarz
:
*The photo presents Viktor Orban, Hungary's
14
20
151
NEW REPORT: Germany may have the world’s third-largest economy and a hot stock market, but its prospects are not looking good.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Karl-Friedrich Israel:
7
27
141
The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a $61 billion package in new military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion.
Will this aid change the situation on the frontline?
Yes
169
No
603
Depends (please comment)
12
22
62
138
NEW REPORT: Many politicians in
#Germany
have not learned their lessons or atoned for their past mistakes with their policy towards
#Russia
.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Matt Boyse:
30
46
140
Over the last six decades, Swiss federal military spending as a percentage of GDP decreased from a high of 2.57% in 1962, when it was $0.27 billion, to a low of 0.63% in 2014 at $4.61 billion.
The latest figures, for 2021, are 0.71% of GDP at $5.74 billion.
17
18
131
Last week
#Italy
shocked banks with the idea of a 40% one-off bank
#tax
.
@Colombatto
writes that though some believe punishing “profiteering” with higher taxation is morally justified, for the economy, it is a dangerous folly:
13
24
141
Claudia
#Sheinbaum
’s landslide victory has raised various opinions about
#Mexico
’s future.
How will Sheinbaum's presidency affect Mexico?
Positive, investment
182
Negative, uncertainty
501
No impact
37
Other (please comment)
13
2
79
141
The
#Wagner
group has, over a decade, emerged as a force to call when it comes to procuring ruthless security assistance to regimes and embattled rulers in Africa.
That assistance is usually required by fragile states with a history of persistent internal conflicts, pointing to
9
28
134
NEW REPORT: What seemed like a temporary clouding has since changed Hungary’s entire political climate, posing a new challenge to the long-ruling Fidesz Party.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Krisztina Koenen:
60
16
141
Thousands of demonstrators in Barcelona, Spain, protest a deal struck by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez that granted amnesty to people involved in the 2017 breakaway attempt in Catalonia. The caretaker prime minister made the deal in exchange for political support that allows him
14
62
127
China accounted for nearly 23 percent of all Indonesian exports in 2022, more than double the amount of the United States, the second-highest destination.
Indonesia’s growing economic reliance on Beijing risks complicating efforts to address confrontational Chinese behavior in
3
16
127
NEW REPORT: If the Kremlin proves successful, Russia will likely seek to annex Transnistria and expand throughout
#Ukraine
, and possibly
#Romania
, to the
#BlackSea
.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Colleen Graffy (
@Colleen_Graffy
):
32
26
122
Romania has shown unwavering solidarity with Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion even though there are several ongoing territorial disputes between two countries:
➡️ Northern Bukovina
The Soviet Union initially occupied the northern part of Bukovina, a traditionally
18
9
117
Mexico’s endemic governance problems have created economic hardship and failed to curb violence fueled by organized crime.
Some journalists and analysts have taken to referring to
#AMLO
’s time in power as the “Teflon Presidency” since nothing seems to stick, from a poor pandemic
0
12
120
The EU’s latest proposal for more stringent supply chain requirements would introduce substantial administrative burdens:
By Prince Michael of Liechtenstein (
@MvLiechtenstein
)
1
9
112
NEW REPORT: Despite historical tensions over minority rights and territorial disputes, Romania has shown unwavering solidarity with Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Paul Dragos Aligica:
14
11
118
Why doesn't Europe have a leading tech industry?
Strict regulations
363
Fragmented markets
93
Limited venture funding
166
Other (please comment)
93
27
12
109
Starting last June, the flow of
#weapons
and ammunition from allies helped
#Ukrainian
forces first halt
#Russia
’s eastern advances and then lay the groundwork for offensive operations.
*Chart below shows commitments made between January 24, 2022, to May 31, 2023.
26
22
113
A wave of protests by farmers across
#Germany
has shocked the country’s political class.
Those who read GIS are less surprised, as our analysis has recognized the government’s anti-business, anti-farmer and anti-middle class policies for years.
Are Germans themselves finally
3
15
108
27
32
104
What should we prepare for in 2023?
More non-aligned states
68
Failed monetary policies
235
Strategic reshoring
33
Other (comment)
47
23
25
98
NEW REPORT: Ankara’s recent move to economic and monetary orthodoxy could help keep President Erdogan in the political driver’s seat.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Güven Sak:
5
7
107
NEW REPORT: Prime Minister Meloni wants to revolutionize Italy’s relationship with Africa. The plan has merits, but it would take more than one European country’s involvement to make it work.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Federica Saini Fasanotti:
18
11
109
Could
#Turkey
broker peace in the
#Hamas
-Israel conflict?
Listen to the newest episode of the
#GISpodcast
, in which Prince Michael of Liechtenstein, GIS Founder and Chairman, is joined by Alper Coşkun, senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for
5
3
100
The race to replace ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy started as Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan said they would seek the post.
According to
@JJCarafano
, political stability in the U.S. will come not from a resurgence of bipartisanship but from the dominance of conservative or
3
11
96
The primary election campaign in
#Argentina
focused on economic and security issues as the economy shrank 2.8% in the second quarter of 2023 and 4.9% versus a year earlier.
3
24
106
According to the
@TheStudyofWar
, Russia will likely continue to exploit the
#Hamas
attacks on
#Israel
to deflect the West’s attention from the war in Ukraine.
Read more about how the war in Ukraine affects Middle East geopolitics in our recent report by
@BousselPierre
:
6
12
99
NEW REPORT: The bilateral relationship is deep and nonpartisan, with generally common interests in security and trade, bringing continuity no matter who is in power in either country.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Carafano (
@JJCarafano
):
18
26
92
NEW REPORT: The same traditional parties have long dominated the German scene, but a changing society may upend the status quo.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Andreas Rödder:
3
11
97
NEW REPORT: Leading nonaligned nations are touted as possible mediators in helping to end
#Russia
’s war on
#Ukraine
– what role might
#Serbia
play?
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Ambassador Klaus Wölfer (
@klauswoelfer
):
19
22
91
NEW REPORT: The British public has grown disappointed with
#Brexit
's consequences. Given the disingenuous national debate leading up to it, the fiasco is not a big surprise.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Enrico Colombatto (
@Colombatto
):
41
42
95
What can we expect from the energy sector in 2023?
➡️How is the search for alternatives to Russian supplies progressing?
➡️Why has the oil sector become so volatile?
➡️Could nuclear energy and hydrogen storage be parts of the solution?
Find the answers in our new dossier about
2
3
86
What are the dynamics in the global energy landscape today? What are the roots of the crisis in this area?
In this special episode of the
#GIS
podcast,
@MvLiechtenstein
, GIS founder and chairman, interviews Dr. Frank Umbach, a leading expert on energy security and cybersecurity.
2
5
83
What will have the most impact on global energy supplies in 2024?
Failed energy policies
122
Middle East conflict
76
Economic conditions
41
Other (please comment)
12
2
8
85
The EU is primarily focused on routes to Europe by sea. In 2023, the Central Mediterranean Route from Tunisia, Libya or Algeria to Sicily or the Italian mainland had the most traffic. Irregular migration in smaller numbers flows along the Western African Route connecting the
2
12
86
NEW REPORT: American interests in a free and open Black Sea are enduring, but the level of engagement will be shaped by the war in Ukraine and the depth of future U.S. commitment to transatlantic security.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by
@JJCarafano
:
6
9
82
NEW REPORT: Hungary and Slovakia share some tendencies under their controversial leaders, but when economic policies are compared, Slovakia falls short.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Ivan Miklos:
6
3
82
What is the most relevant long-term lesson to be learned from 2022?
Debt & inflation
370
China’s failed Covid plan
81
Weak Russian military
121
Other (comment)
93
54
27
81
NEW REPORT: France and Germany's structural problems differ, but they result in the same outcome: subpar productivity, declining competitiveness and sluggish growth.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. Emmanuel Martin:
7
23
81
Will Donald
#Trump
be the Republican nominee in 2024?
yes
233
no
74
depends (please comment)
13
4
18
80
The United States and its allies are facing a formidable alliance of China, Russia and North Korea:
By Prince Michael of Liechtenstein (
@MvLiechtenstein
)
10
24
75
What should decision makers watch for in 2024?
Dr. Peter Brookes (
@Brookes_Peter
), GIS expert on defense and national security, will join us for a live webinar to discuss global hotspots in 2024.
Tune in on January 17, 4:00 PM CET / 10:00 AM EST:
3
9
73
NEW REPORT: The Biden administration’s attempts to engage
#Iran
have encouraged
#Israel
’s enemies and could soon force the United States to make dangerous choices.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Dr. James Jay Carafano (
@JJCarafano
):
5
22
75
The German economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023, marking a downturn after two consecutive quarters of stagnation. The French economy showed no growth in the same period. For the full year, France’s GDP increased by 0.9% after rises of 2.5% in 2022 and 6.4% in
2
6
72
Über-Bundestag? The current Bundestag has a record number of members as a result of the German electoral system’s use of overhang and leveling seats. These mechanisms ensure proportional representation by retaining extra seats won in constituencies (overhang seats) and adding
5
9
71
Poland intends to extend temporary controls on its border with Slovakia to block illegal migration routes through Poland.
@MVLiechtenstein
argues the EU could improve its immigration policies with enhanced control by Frontex, initiating controlled immigration procedures in
5
9
74
The baseline scenario is that Finland’s military strength and its resolve to fight will be sufficient to deter a direct Russian attack.
Read more in our newest report by Prof. Stefan Hedlund (
@Sarimner
):
14
25
50
How will the increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape affect global energy supplies?
Dr. Carole Nakhle (
@carole_nakhle
), an internationally renowned expert on global energy issues, will join us for a special live webinar to discuss energy supplies and geopolitical
0
6
66
How will geopolitics shape the future of the energy sector?
In the latest episode of the
#GISpodcast
,
@MvLiechtenstein
and
@carole_nakhle
discuss the most pressing issues regarding energy economics:
Find out more in our new dossier about energy
2
9
68
➡️Concerned about rising prices?
➡️Wondering why reversing this trend may be more difficult than central bankers claim?
➡️Want to know what to expect in 2023?
Discover the answers in our new dossier on
#inflation
:
0
10
65
NEW REPORT: With China and North Korea making aggressive moves,
#Japan
is awakening to the need for increased defense spending.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Urs Schöttli:
1
9
72
At this stage, the desire for peace is not shared by the instigator of the war nor the leader of the defending country under attack.
Read more:
***
#Ukraine
in focus is a series of comments by
@Mvliechtenstein
:
5
12
60
After Joe Biden assumed the presidency in January 2021 and word spread of a more accommodating border and
#immigration
policy, the number of Latin Americans trying to illegally enter the U.S. surged.
20
27
60
#Lampedusa
, with a population about 6,000, saw an influx of 7,000 migrants in two days. What should the EU do?
Boost Frontex
236
Talk with N. Africa
126
Solidarity plan
244
Unclear (please comment)
77
60
23
60
The opening ceremony for the Paris Olympics has faced criticism for its taste and presentation. Do you agree with the critiques?
#Paris2024
#ParisOlympics2024
Agree
446
Neutral
59
Disagree
337
Other (please comment)
25
12
20
55
NEW REPORT: Opponents of Ukraine aid often fail to grasp the extent to which a Russian victory would weaken the United States.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Andrew Kureth (
@AndyKureth
):
12
6
59
#Wagner
, the Russian mercenary group, is set to be banned as a terrorist group by the UK government. Though the organization’s future in Europe is uncertain, Wagner’s presence in Africa remains suspiciously active:
4
10
58
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has authorised the deployment of 3,300 army personnel to help combat illegal mining activities.
n May,
@teresa_np
wrote that Africa’s second-largest economy is struggling, and the long-dominant African National Congress party will likely
1
3
61
The resistance in Congress to Ukraine aid, though loud and somewhat effective so far, is being mounted by a fairly small group of politicians. A majority of Americans understand what is at stake in Russia’s war on Ukraine and favor continuing support.
Read more in our newest
6
18
52
NEW REPORT: NATO will benefit greatly from Finland’s provision of clear deterrence; less so from Sweden, with its vulnerabilities to Russian threats.
Read more in the new
#GISreport
by Prof. Stefan Hedlund (
@Sarimner
):
9
8
58