Frederik Gieschen
@FrederikNeckar
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pilgrim ✍ about money & meaning money work is inner work offering sound meditation in NYC
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Last Seen Profiles
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To succeed in the worlds of business and media, study Mr. Beast.
To leave a legacy, study Robert Caro.
To perfect your craft, learn from both.
✍️ new post
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Michael Bloomberg started his company in 1981. He was already 39 years old. He faced large incumbents with tens of thousands of installed terminals and by global news agencies.
Let's take a look at how he cracked the code to become the dominant player in financial information
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Momentum and mistakes:
‘If you can’t tell me the four ways you f*cked something up… you probably weren’t the person who worked on it’
@elonmusk
via
@jimmyasoni
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George Soros: "I don’t like working. I do the absolute minimum necessary to reach a decision. There are people who love working. They amass an inordinate amount of information, much more than is necessary to reach a conclusion. They become attached to certain investments..."
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Jim Simons: "My algorithm has always been: you get smart people together and you give them a lot of freedom. Create an atmosphere where everyone talks to everyone else. Provide the best infrastructure. And make everyone partners. That was the model that we used in Renaissance."
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Jim Simons's five principles (RIP):
“Be guided by beauty. Just as a great theorem can be very beautiful, a company that’s really working very well, very efficiently, that can be beautiful.
Surround yourself with the smartest and best people you possibly can. Let them do their
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Stanley Druckenmiller on the Fed's historic blunder: "When rates were practically zero, every Tom, Dick and Harry and Mary in the United States refinanced their mortgage, corporations extended. Unfortunately, we've had one entity that did not and that was US Treasury.
Janet
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David Foster Wallace: "I have intelligent friends, who don't like to read. They get - it's not just bored - there's an almost dread that comes up about having to be alone and having to be quiet.
It seems significant that we don't want things to be quiet ever anymore."
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Buffett in 2003: "When you get to be my age, you will be successful if the people that you would hope to have love you, do love you.
Charlie and I know a few people that have a lot of money. They get their names on buildings. And the truth is nobody loves them."
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'Fuck you money' explained in the movie The Gambler.
Jim Bennett: I've been up two and a half million dollars.
Frank: What you got on you?
Jim Bennett : Nothing.
Frank: What you put away?
Jim Bennett: Nothing.
Frank: You get up two and a half million dollars, any asshole in
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"Its just money; it's made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat. It's not wrong. And it's certainly no different today than its ever been.
1637, 1797, 1819, 37, 57, 84, 1901, 07, 29, 1937, 1974, 1987 -Jesus,
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Young
@RobertDowneyJr
triggered after visiting Wall Street: "The most obnoxious group of money-hungry, high energy, shit talking bunch of motherf*ckers I have ever had to endure for more than five minutes."
He'd have a blast on fintwit.😬
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Michael Platt of BlueCrest on what he looks for in traders:
"The type who gets up at 7am Sunday morning in London when his kids are still in bed, and logs onto a poker site so that he can pick off the US drunks coming home on Saturday night."
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One of my favorite fun investor profiles: Herbert Wertheim, the "billionaire optometrist" who manages his $4bn with Fidelity and Schwab accounts.
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Peter Thiel: "We’re a macro fund paid to identify markets that are enormously mispriced. Almost every MBA I talk to simply doesn’t have an answer. It’s always intelligent, well-thought-out stuff, but there are no strongly held views."
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Buffett in '95: "We have the attitude that you can’t make a good deal with a bad person.
We just forget about it. We don’t try and protect ourselves by contracts, due diligence. We forget about it. We can do fine over time, dealing with people that we like, admire, and trust."
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Jorge Luis Borges: mistakes and nightmares are given to us, "our task is to make them into poetry. "
"Defeat, humiliation, failure, those are our tools."
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In 1987, six college friends made $30 million with their new trading firm.
Today they're billionaires, having proven themselves on the trading floor, in poker rooms, on race tracks, even in startups.
"In the choice of fame and fortune, they chose fortune."
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George Soros to his friend Byron Wien: "The trouble with you is that you go to work every day and you think that because you go to work every day, you should do something.
And you do something every day and you don't realize when it's a special day."
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Buffett in 1996. I had no idea👀
"It’s very tough to make money shorting even obvious frauds. We tried a few times in our innocence of youth. It’s not tough to find obvious frauds and it’s not tough to be right over 10 years. But it’s very tough to make money being short them."
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Michael Bloomberg: “As I would learn later in my life, it’s the ‘doers,’ the lean and hungry ones, those with ambition in their eyes and fire in their bellies and no notions of social caste, who would go the furthest and achieve the most.”
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Munger: "Don’t blow your opportunities. You don’t get that many great opportunities in a lifetime. They’re not that common, the ones that are clearly recognizable with virtually no downside and big upsides. Don’t be too timid, when you really have a cinch."
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Buffett in 2001. Savage.
"I’ve had calls from friends that don’t know anything about investing money. “I’m forming a small hedge fund.” $125 million. If you looked at this fellow’s Schedule D on his 1040 for the last 20 years, you’d think he ought to be mowing lawns."
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Robert de Ropp: "Seek, above all, for a game worth playing. Such is the advice of the oracle to modern man. Having found the game, play it with intensity—play as if your life and sanity depended on it."
"If life does not seem to offer a game worth playing,
then invent one."
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Steve Ross who built Warner: "When I was a teenager, my father was dying. He gave me the best advice possible. He said, there are three categories of people in this world.
The first is the individual who wakes up in the morning and goes into the office and proceeds to dream.
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Buffett: "We will never be dependent on the kindness of strangers. We spent too long building Berkshire to have one moment destroy us."
"Credit is a lot like oxygen. You don’t notice it 99% of the time. But if it’s absent, it’s the only thing you notice."
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Bezos: "Let's say a junior exec comes up with an idea. They have to convince their boss, their boss's boss, their boss's boss's boss and so on- any 'no' can kill the idea."
Vs.: if 19 VCs say no, it just takes a 20th to say yes to get an idea into business.
h/t
@wolfejosh
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Russell Napier: "Many investors today still pretend that we’re in the system that we had from 1980 to 2020. We’re not. We’re going through fundamental, lasting changes on many levels."
"Financial repression will be the leitmotif for the next 15 to 20 years."
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Michael Burry: "The more he studied Buffett, the less he thought Buffett could be copied.
The lesson was: To succeed in a spectacular fashion you had to be spectacularly unusual.
“If you are going to be a great investor, you have to fit the style to who you are."
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For all the new bank balance sheet analysts..
Buffett: "Accounting is not quite the science that people might want you to [believe]."
"I became interim chairman of Salomon in 1991. They came to me, “We have this item, $180 million. This is a plug number."
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Carl Icahn: "Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity."
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Jerry Seinfeld: "You must master waiting. 'Show's gonna be delayed a half hour.' Fine. Plane's gonna be delayed two hours. Fine. Career's gonna be delayed five years, Fine."
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It's wild how much wealth there is. UBS estimates there to be 243,000+ people worth more than $50 million
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Neal Stephenson: “There are only two industries. This has always been true.”
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In 1986, Buffett ran a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal: "We want to buy businesses worth $100 million or more."
"In 44 days the tax you must pay may soar..."
"Berkshire Hathaway will have no problem in completing a transaction by the December 31 deadline."
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If I ran a hedge fund I'd just hire a bunch of these scalper kids and give them infrastructure and a profit share and unleash them on markets
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Michael Bloomberg: “As I would learn later in my life, it’s the ‘doers,’ the lean and hungry ones, those with ambition in their eyes and fire in their bellies and no notions of social caste, who would go the furthest and achieve the most.”
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Ed Thorp explains how he uncovered the Madoff fraud in 1991
(from Schwager's Hedge Fund Market Wizards)
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Buffett ('95): "A very important principle in investing is you don’t have to make it back the way you lost it. It’s usually a mistake."
Munger: "It's the reason people are ruined by gambling. They get behind and feel they have to get it back. It’s a deep part of human nature."
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..because they know them intimately. I am different. I concentrate on the essentials.
When I have to, I work furiously because I am furious that I have to work. When I don’t have to, I don’t work. This has been an essential element in my approach."
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Buffett in 1996 on diversification: "We like to put a lot of money in things that we feel strongly about. We think diversification makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing. Diversification is a protection against ignorance."
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Steve Jobs: The doers are the major thinkers.
"It's easy to take credit for the thinking. Oh I thought of this three years ago. But when you dig deeper, you find that the people that really did it were also the people that worked through the hard intellectual problems."
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Druckenmiller was on
@DavidNovakOGO
's podcast this week. Some favorite highlights below.
"You get your grades in the paper every day. There's no hiding in the investment business. The numbers are what they are, you can make up all the excuses you want."
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Soros to Byron Wien: "the trouble with you is that you go to work every day and you think that because you go to work every day, you should do something.
And you do something every day and you don't realize when it's a special day."
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Zuckerberg's emails about the Instagram deal are worth reading
“These businesses are nascent but the networks established, the brands are already meaningful, and if they grow to a large scale the could be very disruptive to us"
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Schroeder on Buffett's midlife crisis: "When I was 47, I thought my life was over. Susie had left me, and I had accomplished everything I thought was worthwhile as an investor. Berkshire, as far as I knew, was at its peak.
To my surprise ... most of the really important things
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Soros: "Early in my career I was a trading assistant. I had a boss, a very meticulous person. Every morning he sharpened his pencil. 'If there is no business to be done, the pencil should be as sharp when you leave as it was when you came in.' I have never forgotten his advice."
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Stanley Druckenmiller's speech at the Lost Tree Club is an evergreen read:
"I had an incredible passion, and still do, for the business. The thought that every event in the world affects some security price somewhere ... to try and figure out what the next puzzle was..."
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Buffett: "The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you can raise prices without losing to a competitor, it's a very good business. If you need a prayer session before raising prices by a tenth of a cent, you’ve got a terrible business."
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Druckenmiller on stocks at Robin Hood last week: "We've been through two or three months of a pretty devastating period. All I know is, every sale I made I'm happy about and every buy I made I'm not thrilled with. Sentiment and positioning is such that I'm not really excited
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Stanley Druckenmiller talking with Alex Karp of Palantir.
Druckenmiller: "When I look back at the bull market, in financial assets since 1982. All the factors that created that not only have stopped, they've reversed."
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George Soros: "To others, being wrong is a source of shame; to me, recognizing my mistakes is a source of pride. Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes."
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Buffett: "When markets are in distress. ... few people have the capital, and a lot fewer have the willingness to commit.
The ability to say 'yes' quickly with large sums sets you apart from virtually anybody in the investing universe."
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Druckenmiller keynote on debt, entitlements, and the dollar.
"The Fed can’t save us."
"The demographic storm is just getting under way."
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Berkshire Hathaway's annual meetings are a treasure trove of wisdom about investing, business, and life. Over the years, Buffett and Munger have shared tons of laughs, stories, insights, and lessons. I've listened to them all so you don't have to. Here are a few of my favorites:
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Mark Sellers's speech "So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How's Your Writing?" is a must read.
"I'm not here to teach you how to be a great investor. I'm here to tell you why very few of you can ever hope to achieve this status."
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"It's just money; it's made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat. ... it's certainly no different today than it's ever been. ... we can't help ourselves. You and I can't control it, or stop it... We just react."
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"It’s a terrible mistake to sleepwalk through life. It’s the only one you have."
Buffett on the importance of finding your passion.
"I always tell kids, 'Go to work for an organization or an individual you admire.' That means many of them become self-employed."
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Stanley Druckenmiller spoke with
@collision
at the Sohn Conference this week. The headlines were about his bearishness, that he expects the bear to continue. True. But that's missing all of the best insights from his chat.
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Stanley Druckenmiller: “The one thing I’ve learned about markets over time is that they tend to train you to ignore something and then humiliate you once you figure it doesn’t matter.”
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Peter Lynch: “If the future could be told from a balance sheet, then mathematicians and accountants would be the richest people in the world by now.”
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Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."
But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing."
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Druckenmiller: “If you’re early in your career and they give you a choice between a great mentor or higher pay, take the mentor every time. It’s not even close. Don’t even think about leaving that mentor until your learning curve peaks."
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Loved this conversation with Todd Combs of Berkshire. Three ideas stood out to me:
1) Great investors are weird and love the process
2) We are all wet cement.
3) To compete, you need to love the game. To decide whether to compete, you have to deeply know yourself and your own
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Jeff Yass, co-founder of Susquehanna Group, on poker and trading: “If you’re the sixth best poker player in the world and you play with the five best players, you’re going to lose. If your skills are only average, but you play against weak opponents, you’re going to win.”
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Buffett: “What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.”
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Buffett: "If you are willing to do dumb things in insurance, the world will find you. You can be in a boat in the middle of the Atlantic and whisper, “I’m willing to write this,” and name a dumb price. You will have brokers swimming to you. With their fins showing, incidentally."
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Stanley Druckenmiller, 1988: "The major thing we look at is liquidity, meaning as a combination of an economic overview and how the Fed is responding to that economic situation."
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Steve Jobs: "People get stuck as they get older. Our minds are sort of electrochemical computers. Your thoughts construct patterns like scaffolding in your mind. You are really etching chemical patterns. People get stuck in those patterns, just like grooves in a record.
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Buffett: "It's been our experience that envy is a bigger motivation than greed.
You can hand somebody a $2 million bonus, and they’re fine until they find out that the person next to them got $2 million and $1, and then they’re sick for the next year."
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Michael Lewis about Michael Burry: "The more he studied Buffett, the less he thought Buffett could be copied. To succeed in a spectacular fashion you had to be spectacularly unusual."
"Buffett, though he had every advantage in learning from Ben Graham, did not copy Ben Graham,
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Finally got around to reading the letters of Nick Sleep and Zak Zakaria's Nomad Partnership. These guys crushed the market and left behind a legacy of insights and worldly wisdom.
Going to share some favorite lessons and quotes:
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Buffett: “Huge markets attract people who measure themselves by money.
If someone goes through life and measures themselves solely by how much money they have, or how much they earned last year, sooner or later they’re going to end up in trouble."
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Munger: "I cannot remember an important decision that Warren has made when he was tired."
"He’s never tired. He sleeps soundly, and he doesn’t waste time."
"Warren and I live entirely on autopilot, in terms of the ordinary decisions in life, which is totally habitual."
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Jerry Seinfeld on why he still works hard: "Because the only thing in life that's really worth having is good skill. Good skill is the greatest possession. The things that money buys are fine. They're good, I like them, but having a skill - I learned this from reading Esquire
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Munger: "Carnegie was very proud that the bulk of his fortune had been earned when he took no salary. Rockefeller took practically nothing in salary. Vanderbilt prided himself on living on dividends and taking no salary. Those people had the psychology of being the founder."
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There is a perception that Buffett spends his days at the desk, eating candy, reading annual reports at a pace of 500 pages per minute. Sometimes he gets a call for a great deal. Maybe that's the case today. But to get here, Buffett was proactive, networked, traveled a ton.
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Buffett in 1989: "After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of businesses, Charlie and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them."
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Why Buffett cares so much about Berkshire Hathaway's longevity. Alice Schroeder: "I went out to dinner with him and the widow of one of his earliest partners said hello.
After she left, he said to me, "That woman is the reason I run Berkshire Hathaway the way I do. Every dime
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"The idea that life is a series of adversities and each one is an opportunity to behave well instead of badly is a very, very, good idea."
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Munger in 2005: "One of my children knew a nice man who had a $2.5 million house and $5 million worth of wonderful securities.
He got in the habit of picking up easy money with the credit systems of the world. He kept selling naked puts."
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Adebayo Ogunlesi, founder of Global Infrastructure Partners.
"When I decided to start GIP I went to see Henry Kravis.
'I’ll give you two pieces of advice. Any fool can buy a business. It’s not when you buy that you celebrate. It’s when you sell at a profit."
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Sam Zell: "I’ve had a number of brilliant people working for me who didn’t make it because they couldn’t grasp how to think about a deal.
You’ve got to be able to look at the deal and know what it hinges on to know whether it works or not. Then you use the numbers to test it."
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Munger: "There’s nothing so insignificant as an extra $2 billion to an old man."
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The top five regrets of the dying:
1) “I wish I'd had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life others expected of me.”
2) “I wish I hadn't worked so hard.”
3) “I wish I'd had the courage to express my feelings.”
4) “I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends.”
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John Elkann is quietly transforming the fortune of one of Europe’s wealthiest families. Thrown into his role during an attempted management coup, he is now working on his own vision
This is his journey from novice to savvy capital allocator.
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In May 2007,
@BillAckman
shared a deck on his short position in mortgage insurer MBIA.
It's amazing how obvious the mortgage crisis looked at at that point - but the stock market was still near all-time highs.
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Munger on stock picking and Ken Langone: "The people who tend to do best are fanatics who keep searching for great businesses. All you need are one or two.
The banker who backed Home Depot also backed Eli Lilly early. In a lifetime of investment banking, that's what he got: two."
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"90% of life is showing up. That really is true. All you gotta do is outwork the other person and you got a good shot."
Michael Bloomberg on work ethic
"90% of life is showing up. That really is true. All you gotta do is outwork the other person and you got a good shot."
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The story of Chobani is so wholesome and also a good example of how companies can get funded outside of VC.
Taking big risks, Chobani founder Hamdi Ulukaya went all-in betting on his heritage and a powerful emerging consumer trend.
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Buffett: "The beauty of stocks is they do sell at silly prices from time to time. That’s how Charlie and I got rich. It’s a marvelous game. The rules are stacked in your favor, if you don’t behave like the drunken psychotic instead of the guy that’s taking advantage of it."
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Charlie Munger: "Don’t make important decisions in anger.
You can always tell a man to go to hell tomorrow if it’s such a good idea. You want to display as much ruthlessness as your duty requires. Do not add a single iota because you’re angry."
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4-7-8 breath, the method Dr. Weil taught NSA staff:
"The most powerful anti-anxiety measure I’ve ever come across.
Do this religiously at least twice a day. The real effects come after doing this regularly for 4-6 weeks."
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Stanley Druckenmiller: “The one thing I’ve learned about markets over time is that they tend to train you to ignore something and then humiliate you once you figure it doesn’t matter.”
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Jim Simons's five principles:
1: "Be guided by beauty. Just as a great theorem can be very beautiful, a company that’s really working very well, very efficiently, that can be beautiful.”
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Ed Thorp: "People don’t understand the difference between averages and the way things are distributed in a population.
There are a hundred people in a bar and somebody says, “the average net worth is a hundred thousand each.” An hour goes by, one guy walks out of the bar.
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When I got divorced, I started a strange hobby: I went to the New York Public Library to read old newspapers.
In this gorgeous ambience I dove into the lost knowledge of a century of financial markets.
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In 1929, a young lawyer named Floyd Odlum raised millions which he used to roll up distressed assets after the crash.
And yet, the Great Depression’s most successful investor, is completely forgotten today. This is the story of an unlikely triumph with a tragic ending.
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Munger: "I don’t think you can get to be a really good investor without doing a massive amount of reading."
Buffett: "It’s an investigative process, a journalistic process. Write the story, XYZ Company is worth this amount because..."
A short master class on great questions:
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