Frank Cappelleri
@FrankCappelleri
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Technical commentary and trade ideas • Free & Premium Content: • 📺 • @CNBC Contributor
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Joined May 2009
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The last time the $SPX logged a 1% loss the day after a 1% gain was 3/16-17...
... which happened AFTER the March low on 3/13.
Then vs. now:
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These $SPX charts are exactly the same.
👉The only difference is your bias.
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$SPX: There's overbought... and there's this.
14-Wk RSI hit 90 right before the 2018 vol implosion.
Highest on record going back to at least 1930.
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It's like the market is waiting for a catalyst or something... 🤔 $SPX
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$SPX: 20-DMA crossing below the 50-DMA hasn't provided the best outcome lately.
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The biggest question now is this for $SPX:
🔴 Was yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern more like 7/27/23, which led to the 11% correction over the ensuing three months?
Or…
🟢 Will it turn into something like the 12/20/23 version, which now is undetectable within the
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When discussing weak internals, please never cite the
#NASDAQ
adv-dec line.
It has been “diverging” from the index for most of its existence.
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2021 was an exciting year...
YTD gains 4 days in:
1 $BTC
#Bitcoin
+36%
2 $TAN Solar +18%
3 $MJ Marijuana +18%
4 $PBW Alt Energy +18%
5 $LIT Lithium +17%
6 $OIH Oil Svcs +15%
7 $XOP Oil & Gas Explor +14%
8 $KRE Reg Banks +11%
9 $ARKK Dis Innvtion +11%
10 $XME Metals +11%
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NYSE $TICK just hit -1,799, the lowest since:
-1,803 from May 6, 2010 (Flash Crash)
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$SPX: The biggest and best-looking bullish patterns have failed.
Can this time be any different?
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$SPX: 5 prior drawdowns in '22 were worse than this one.
And each made a new low.
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$SMH Semis 8-day gain now is +23.4%...
...the biggest 8-day run since Nov'03 (+24.8%)...
...which happened 6 weeks after the Oct'03 bear mkt low.
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$SPX The current 4-day winning streak vs. the others in '23.
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What's the more appropriate headline for this week?
$SPX fails to follow through, falls for 3rd time in 4 weeks & finishes 6% below its weekly high.
OR
$SPX holds above 2,450 multiple times, maintains the majority of last week's rally and is still +13.5% from its low.
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The 2 hours after the
#FOMC
will get all the attention..
The 2 WEEKS after are what really matter.
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Working until it doesn't...
All prior channel breaks were emphatic. $SPX
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We reference short-term patterns a lot...
..but it's just noise if the $SPX remains below its YTD downtrend line.
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🔻35 $NDX components fell at least 5% last week, the most for a calendar week in 2024.
🔻But that was just slightly more than the week ending 1/5/24, when 31 dropped 5% or more.
🔺That marked a key trading low, especially for large cap tech.
🔻For even more perspective, back in
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$SPX Today marks trading day number 100 since the 10/27/23 market low.
The SPX hit a low of 4,103.78 back then. Its intra-day high yesterday was 5,261.10.
That’s a 28.2% gain.
If we extrapolate that over 250 trading days (a year’s worth of trading), that would be a +70%
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Best day of $SPX internals (90% up) of the week, month, quarter (and year), as Large Cap Tech lags…
Which means that the $RSP Eql Weight S&P 500 ETF did a lot better:
⚡️Up 1.6%, doubling the SPX’s move
⚡️Biggest gain since 12/13/23
⚡️3rd bullish pattern breakout
⚡️New all time
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"In Price, There's Knowledge"
That’s a famous quote from my first boss, Alan Shaw, who passed away this week at the age of 85.
I started my career in 1997 at Smith Barney, working with Alan and Louise Yamada (two technical analysis pioneers). I spent just three years with them,
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$TSLA: 14-Day RSI hit 20 yesterday.
Only happened twice prior in its history:
February’16 and May’19.
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I'm excited to announce that I've agreed to be a
@CNBC
Contributor and will be providing weekly write-ups for the new Chart Investing feature within CNBC Pro.
The first piece was released this afternoon.
All CNBC Pro members will have access to the content, which you can
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An overdue drawdown sounds reasonable before it happens.
It feels different in real time.
The only difference is how you feel about it.
Plan > react.
$SPY
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$SPX coming off its THIRD +4% week in the last 4 weeks.
Only happened 2 other times since 1970.
Oct'99 and Mar'00.
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$SPX: Each pullback from a high has had the potential to turn into a topping pattern.
🔺However, each pullback has been gobbled up by buyers waiting for the dip.
Has it paid to be aggressively short even though a drawdown hasn’t even totaled 3% yet? No.
Is it THAT easy? Again,
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$SPX What's done is done.
🟨 It's always about the next trade - or this case - the next Darvas box.
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The $SPX has logged a single 1% gain and zero 1% losses so far in June.
The last calendar month that this happened was July’23.
🔻 The 11% correction then followed.
That raises an eyebrow, but there’s one key difference between the two periods:
👉 Back on July 18, 2023, the
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A key for the $SMH's continued strength has been seeing bearish patterns fail.
The latest test on the 2-hr chart:
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The most telling stat today is this.
Number of S&P 500 stocks making:
🔵20 day highs: 1
🔴20 day lows: 264
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While the $VIX tests 4 month lows, the $VVIX (Vol of Vol) has dropped to levels not seen since July 2017... during one of the calmest equity markets in history.
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I'm excited to announce that I've agreed to write the
@barronsonline
inaugural weekly technical newsletter.
I'll be providing individual stock ideas, as well as technical parameters for select stocks that appear in Barron's magazine.
The first issue went live last evening,
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The $SPX starts 2020 w/ 2 unique conditions.
1. It's coming off a gain >= +25%.
2. It's an election year.
Happened 5 other times in last 100 years.
Higher each time.
2003 +26% 2004 +9%
1991 +26% 1992 +4%
1975 +32% 1976 +19%
1955 +26% 1956 +3%
1935 +41% 1936 +28%
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In the "nobody cares" category, the $CORN ETF now is up 14 straight days.
#🌽
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The $SPX is coming off a three-week gain of at least +5% for the only the third time since the start of 2023.
The other two happened RIGHT after the key trading lows in March and October last year.
Like now.
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46 $SPX stocks making new ALL TIME highs today.
The most are from Industrials (15) and Financials (12).
Tech has 8.
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$XLF Financials:
2 bullish patterns > 1 bullish pattern
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$SPX Label it however you want...
I'm going with "progress."
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The $SPX pattern since October'22:
🟢Uptrend
🔴Uptrend line break
🔴Pullback
🟢Higher low
👉Repeat
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The most dominant trend since October:
🐂 Successful bullish patterns
The $SPX just notched its SEVENTH upside target on Thursday.
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$SPX:
🔴 Tops in red led to drawdowns of at least 5%.
🔵 Tops in blue did not.
What is more likely this time?
Red or blue.
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The $SPX's biggest pullbacks in 2023 have between -6.1% and -7.1%.
At today's low, the current drawdown hit -6.1%.
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$SPX The most important part of this move happens now.
(Chart: 2-hour time frame, 14-Period RSI)
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The market's mood in a nutshell:
$SPX is net flat since the 11/10 close...
...the date of the LAST CPI report.
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In case you were wondering, we're in the "repeat" phase now. $SPX 👇
The $SPX pattern since October'22:
🟢Uptrend
🔴Uptrend line break
🔴Pullback
🟢Higher low
👉Repeat
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The $SPX could log two straight gains of at least 2.5%.
The last 4 occurred in 2008:
12/8/08
12/5/08
12/3/08
12/2/08
11/24/08
11/21/08
9/19/08
9/18/08
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Beach, sun… and
@dailydirtnap
’s “Those Bastards.”
HIGHLY RECOMMEND.
I’ve been an avid fan and friend of Jared’s for over a decade.
I’ve read nearly every word of his content, and “Those Bastards” showcases his extensive reach as a writer…
More importantly, it displays
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The streak that no one cares about:
$XLU Utilities down 11 straight days...
... tied for most (Oct'16) in its history (inception 12/98).
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The $SPX started the day with these eight bearish streaks:
🔻2 straight days of the 14-period, 2-hour RSI < 30
🔻3 straight days of the 14-day RSI < 50
🔻4 straight losses
🔻4 straight closes below the mid-point
🔻4 straight days of the 20-DMA sloping lower
🔻6 straight negative
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🚀 $SMH just logged its SEVENTH monthly gain of at least 12% since the October’22 low.
It’s now approximately +200% since then.
That’s among its best multi-year runs since the Great Financial Crisis low.
The ETF has had an overbought 14-month RSI reading for the last few
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The combo of yesterday's big gain and today's bigger decline has produced many topping patterns like this.
$NDX is just one example.
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Best Performing ETFs since 12/24:
$MJ Marijuana 48%
$PBW Alt Energy 32%
$TAN Solar 32%
$ARKK Innovation 30%
$OIH Oil Svcs 29%
$FFTY IBD Fifty 28%
$IGV Software 28%
$FDN Internet 27%
$SMH Semis 26%
$ITA Aero & Def 26%
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$SPX: Prior breaks of upward sloping trading channels led to new lows each of the last 4 times in 2022.
If there's one trend that needs to change this time, it's that.
It's not about IF the $SPX will break the tight and steep upward trading channel...
...it's about WHEN and HOW it will respond once it does.
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$SPX breadth check:
✅ 77% S&P 500 stocks advanced last week, which was the best weekly breadth reading since the week ending 2/23/24 (78%).
✅ 59 names were up at least 5%, which was the most since the week ending 12/15/23 (182).
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When was the last time that the $NDX had +90% breadth with $AAPL, $GOOGL, $GOOG, $AMZN, $TSLA $MSFT and $NVDA all down on the day?
Ever?
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Breaking the short-term uptrend line also would trigger the next bearish pattern. $SPX
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$HD: A close below the recent lows would complete a clear topping formation.
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The last time the $SPX logged back-to-back gains of at least +1.5% was 10/3-10/4/22.
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$XLV Healthcare down 9 straight weeks through last week…
…the longest wkly losing streak in its history (1998).
Only 2 weeks during the streak have been worse than 1%.
Slow and steady…
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The
#goat
, Jesse Livermore, reminding us that human nature is undefeated:
“All through time, people have basically acted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance and hope.
That is why numerical formations & patterns recur on a constant basis.”
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Personal News:
I'm happy to announce the launch of CappThesis, LLC, an independent research firm created to strengthen active investors through time-tested chart and statistical analysis.
Subscribe to unlock all content:
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An "average" drawdown for 2022 so far. The $SPX made new lows the other times.
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So many eye popping stats this week. Here’s another one:
Number of $SPX stocks:
Up at least 5%: 281
Down at least 5%: 5
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The answer is $FFTY (IBD 50)…
…which now has another chance to capitalize on a potential bullish pattern.
Name the ETF that is +1% so far today and whose 2 biggest sectors are Tech (27%) and Energy (26%).
#markets
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$SPX set to start the new month above its 200-Day MA.
This last happened from Nov into Dec’22.
The index is near the same price level now as it was 2 months ago.
Coincidence or nah?
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