Flynn Jansen
@FlynnJansenWX
Followers
1,393
Following
358
Media
691
Statuses
4,686
Middle schooler who loves the weather and fishing. Member of Next-Gen WX. I make forecasts to the best of my ability.
Joined August 2023
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Rodri
• 2160699 Tweets
Vini
• 1194411 Tweets
Puerto Rico
• 927215 Tweets
Messi
• 450723 Tweets
seungkwan
• 270990 Tweets
Bezos
• 156440 Tweets
Yankees
• 95411 Tweets
Steelers
• 71469 Tweets
Giants
• 62781 Tweets
#WorldSeries
• 59320 Tweets
#WWERaw
• 51283 Tweets
Sami
• 42341 Tweets
Paolo
• 35467 Tweets
Russ
• 33455 Tweets
Freddie Freeman
• 32724 Tweets
Payet
• 30359 Tweets
Bahia
• 24641 Tweets
Stanton
• 24238 Tweets
Fat Joe
• 18096 Tweets
Pickens
• 17447 Tweets
Aaron Judge
• 15873 Tweets
#Dhanteras
• 14107 Tweets
Giannis
• 12857 Tweets
Coty
• 12499 Tweets
Raptors
• 11913 Tweets
Pritchard
• 11028 Tweets
Buehler
• 10550 Tweets
Cavs
• 10426 Tweets
Today I wanted to talk about one of the most underrated hurricanes of all time. This is Hurricane Ike, a storm that was a catastrophe on so many levels and isn’t talked about enough. This is what lead to one of the largest avoidable deaths in modern day hurricane history. 🧵
100
397
4K
Speechless. Absolutely speechless. The Greenfield tornado may now be considered the strongest tornado in all of recorded history. This is based off the fact that a mobile Doppler radar recorded winds of 309-318 mph, slightly higher than the Bridge Creek-Moore F5.
25
610
3K
It’s August 24, 2019. A small storm east of the Lesser Antilles is beginning to organize. It soon becomes a tropical storm. What follows will be the story of a storm like no other. A storm that defined all odds and unleashed hell on Earth. This is the story of Hurricane Dorian.🧵
10
74
982
Here is every violent tornado from the 2024 tornado season.
4/26/2024 - Elkhorn, NE - EF4 - 170 mph
4/28/2024 - Marietta, OK - EF4 - 170 mph
5/6/2024 - Barnsdall, OK - EF4 - 180 mph
5/21/2024 - Greenfield, IA - EF4 - 185 mph
11
81
570
What followed would become the biggest evacuation catastrophe in US history. Both sides of the highway have been switched as 3 million get away from the coast. It is a parking lot. The extreme heat makes things even worse. 107 died in the evacuation process alone.
8
43
537
Very grim statistic here. Helene will likely become the 9th deadliest U.S. weather event since 1969. This storm has certainly made a devastating name for itself due to its death toll, cost, and large impacted area. Helene also will become one of the most costly hurricanes ever.
19
91
535
If all NWS offices rated tornadoes as thoroughly as NWS Jackson and NWS Norman, people would never have a signal reason for an argument on why the tornado wasn't rated higher.
20
34
455
It causes a devastation no one could believe came from a mere Category 2. The Bolivar Peninsula is hit the hardest. Its surge reaching up and over 17ft wipe away nearly every house in sight. It is damage many only expect to see in a Category 5. 74 people die in Texas alone.
6
25
459
In the end Hurricane Ike was a catastrophic storm on so many levels, many of which could have been avoided if people heeded evacuation orders. While known throughout the weather community, it is still not talked about enough and has been overshadowed by other major hurricanes.
17
19
429
Forecasting hurricanes is one of the hardest parts of weather. But if you’ve lived on this planet for millions of years, you can get pretty good at it. Research has found that sharks can detect hurricanes up to two weeks in advance as well as forecast the track AND intensity! 🧵
13
36
356
The events leading up to Hurricane Ike caused it to be way deadlier than it needed to be. And worse, if it hit land just slightly more south, the worst surge would impact the heart of Galveston where tens of thousands didn’t evacuate. It could’ve been even worse.
4
8
341
The NHC gets desperate. No one is listening. They go as far as to say that residents living in single-family homes along parts of the coast will face “certain death.” But still, an alarming number of people stay behind. Hurricane Ike then comes ashore with winds of 110 mph.
1
18
331
We now go to 2008. Hurricane Ike has already hit Cuba as a Category 4, killing 7. It is now taking its aim at northern Texas as a Category 2. Although it’s not a particularly strong hurricane, it is large. So large in fact that storm surge is expected to possibly reach over 20ft.
2
13
322
To start, we have to go back 3 years earlier to the infamous 2005 hurricane season. Katrina is still fresh in everyone’s minds as the news broadcasts the devastation in New Orleans. The death toll is still rising and is estimated to be more than 1,000. But hurricanes do not stop.
2
13
321
The current strongest tornado of 2024 is the Greenfield tornado. This tornado had DOW measured winds of up to 290 mph. The tornado tracked for 43 miles and struck Greenfield at EF4+ intensity, killing 5. The tornado is currently rated an EF4 with winds of 175-185 mph.
1
58
308
The NHC scrambles to warn the public. But no one listens. The problem is that the area that needs to evacuate also evacuated during Hurricane Rita. Because they were on the left side of the storm, they didn’t feel extreme impacts, but they did get caught in the mess on the roads.
1
16
283
I think this year yet again proves that “all it takes is one.”
5
17
283
Hurricane Rita is turning the Gulf of Mexico into a living hell. Its 180 mph winds strike a never before seen fear into the minds of the people living along the gulf. They’ve seen what these storms are capable of and this time, people do not hesitate to evacuate…
3
16
281
Ending the night with the most horrifying Atlantic hurricane of all time. I think it’s safe to say the NHC drastically underestimated Wilma’s peak intensity which was likely closer to 195-200 mph instead of the 185 mph it was given. I honestly don’t know what could beat this.
9
13
276
@3YearLetterman
@XDynas
@EmmanuelMacron
Pls stop embarrassing us. Everyone who lives elsewhere, not everyone in America is like this I promise.
68
3
249
Here are the current three EF4 tornadoes of 2024. These ratings are all still preliminary and are subject to change.
1) Marietta, Oklahoma 170 mph
2) Barnsdall, Oklahoma 180 mph
3) Greenfield, Iowa 175-185 mph
9
20
239
If someone told you one was a high end Category 4 and which one was a Category 5, which one would you think the cat 5 is?
21
14
215
It doesn’t get any crazier than this… I don’t know if or most likely when we will ever see an Atlantic hurricane this strong again.
Drilling into the relatively shallow waters of the Yucatán Shelf, Hurricane
#Milton
’s 897 mb., 3.8 mile-wide crystalline eye exhibited a unique, aquamarine glow at peak intensity.
9
166
1K
20
11
204
How did the NHC call Lorenzo a cat 5 when it clearly wasn't but the second we get an obvious cat 5, they decide to go 15 mph lower? I mean the thing looks prettier than Beryl did!
5
19
203
While we haven’t seen an EF5 in the 2020’s, we’ve certainly seen many tornadoes that could’ve achieved that intensity at one point. Here are what I believe to be the 3 strongest tornadoes of the 2020’s in no particular order as it is impossible to say which was stronger.
25
21
196
HWRF going with a Cat 3 just north of Hispaniola. While this might seem very aggressive, this is the same model that we all laughed at when it showed Beryl as a Cat 5 just west of the Windward Islands…
9
10
168
Wow. Super Typhoon Mawar is now officially the strongest TC I have ever tracked. Post-season analysis found that Mawar actually had peak winds of 190 mph and a central pressure of an outstanding 891 mb.
3
13
166
Does anyone remember this? It seems like it happened years ago. The Alta Vista tornado was arguably the start to one of the most historic tornado seasons of all time.
10
11
162
Fun fact: Tornadoes actually have a purpose and don’t happen just because they can. Tornadoes are actually the easiest way for a thunderstorm to move air (in simplified terms) which is why they happen. I need a real meteorologist to explain it better than I did though.
12
9
163
The Barnsdale tornado has been preliminary rated a mid-end EF4 with winds of 180 mph making it the strongest tornado since Rolling Fork. There were multiple homes swept clean but only two well enough built to receive the EF4 rating. The tornado also debarked multiple trees.
2
28
153
Today, Dorian is remembered for the catastrophic damage it inflicted across the Bahamas. It reminds us of the devastation a storm of such magnitude can do. Dorian’s name was retired after the 2019 Hurricane Season. The name will never be used again.
3
1
153
This is what Beryl used to be. It is so crazy to think that that’s what it looks like now.
The literal tail end of what was once powerful hurricane Beryl.
5
42
577
1
11
144
Question for anyone who has a good understanding of these types of things. Is it possible that the NHC upgrades Milton’s intensity in the post season analysis? I think we can all agree it hit its peak in between recon so would there be a claim to bump it up? 185 maybe?
19
10
132
Tomorrow’s New England tornado threat is one of the biggest we’ve seen in quite some time. While I’m not a storm chaser, I do live here and I would advise people who aren’t familiar with the area to not chase. This picture I took in the winter is in the middle of the 10% risk…
2
23
132
WOW. That's pretty much all I can say at this point. Milton looks even better in some ways than it did yesterday and I would not be surprised if its own record breaking peak is rivaled. These two recon planes heading in will give us one of the greatest data sets of all time.
5
14
130
Just hours after the devastating Rolling Fork tornado, a more impressive looking tornado plowed through Amory, Ms. Many feared the tornado was even stronger than Rolling Fork. Radar indicated winds over 180 mph above the surface but was surprisingly only an EF-3.
11
4
119
Considered by some to be a modern day Jarrell, the Smithville, Ms EF-5 from April 27, 2011 caused some of the most extreme damage ever observed. It slabbed multiple well built homes and debarked many large trees. One large brick home even had its foundation dislodged and shifted.
4
15
116
So starting as soon as possible I will be doing a tournament to see what is the greatest satellite photo of all time is. Anyone can vote for their favorites but to start, I need pictures! Here’s one I’m putting in. You can send as many as you want in the comments.
32
10
117
Ok so this is pretty creepy. Fishing out at Block Island and we keep hearing a loud boom every few seconds. Guessing it’s at least 15 miles offshore. Anyone know what it could be?
12
5
110
@maje77
The storm hide such a high surge because of its size and the geography. A hurricane doesn't need to be very strong to cause a bad surge. All it needs is to be big. Ike was much larger than most hurricanes which contributed to this. The geography one is also important...
1
2
113
We obviously have to focus on now casting but I'm noticing a more semi discrete trend on the HRRR for cells at 10PM. Not a good sign at all because the HRRR used to be showing this as completely linear.
5
10
109
Unpopular opinion but I think one of the strongest tornadoes of all time was the Trousdale EF3. Occurring directly after the Greensburg EF5, the Trousdale tornado was even wider and considered by some to be even stronger. It never hit anything head on which is why it was an EF3.
7
8
108
Hurricane Kirk is absolute eye candy tonight. His eye is extremely warm and dry with the upper levels comparable to Beryl at peak intensity. Easily 145 mph and could be even higher. An EWRC is possible tonight so we’ll see if we can get a decent upgrade before then.
2
10
107
The Elkhorn Tornado may have just been upgraded to 2024’s fourth violent tornado with winds of 170 mph. Two new EF4 DI’s have been added for homes completely swept away. This adds to the already record breaking 2024 tornado season.
2
12
103
Hot take: May 6 never deserved a high risk. The night before and the morning of the risk would warrant it based on models but by the time they pulled the trigger, models already started to show a downtrend and a major bust mode which turned out to be true.
59
7
99
After 3 days of work I finally finished my unofficial Greenfield tornado survey with with 48 DI's. Click on different DI's and find a picture of the damage and the rating I gave it! I did this to get an idea on the damage and map it out. 1/2
7
15
97
Many more DI’s have been added to the Greenfield tornado with the highest one so far being 180 mph. Interestingly enough, many DI’s added this morning as EF4 have now been downgraded to EF3.
5
6
96
Search and rescue has begun in the Bahamas. The numbers are staggering. 84 confirmed dead. 245 still missing. The cost? $5.1 billion. The highest the Bahamas has ever seen. Entire neighborhoods are reduced to their concrete slabs. Houses sit on top of each other. It’s unworldly.
2
8
97
A good amount of DI's have been added to the DAT for the Greenfield tornado. All pictures below are from low end EF4 damage, the highest being 175 mph. Many other higher end DI's have not been added yet but there seems to be a common theme which is poorly built structures
4
13
93
A constantly overlooked tornado is the Philadelphia Ms, EF-5 from April 27, 2011. This tornado was moving at high speeds and still caused ground scouring of up to 2ft deep. This certainly could’ve been one of the strongest tornadoes of all time.
6
7
94
That’s interesting. Apparently a new tornado formed immediately after the Greenfield tornado dissipated. Radar showed a possible mesocyclone handoff which would support this idea. Great job by
@NWSDesMoines
for finding this out!
0
10
94
While everyone is interested in Tropical Storm Kirk, I’m more interested in what will develop behind it. The reason for that is because there is a bit less certainty on its track and many ensemble members are keeping it further south. Definitely something to watch at least.
3
9
94
Looking at that radar image, you might expect this to be a violent tornado in the plains or Midwest. If you thought that, you would be dead wrong. This radar image was actually from the Springfield, Massachusetts tornado which was a strong EF3 OTD in 2011. 3 tragically died.
2
13
89
On May 3, 1999, the strongest tornado in recorded history hit Bridge Creek and Moore, Oklahoma. A DOW recorded a wind gust inside of the tornado at 301 mph but some speculate it could've been even stronger. The tornado also causes some of the most extreme damage ever recorded.
8
9
87
Due to what models have been showing recently, I do believe that we will reach at least 15 NS. Our fears have true that late September and into October would be much more active. Watching the gulf closely but thankfully models don’t really show a major storm at this time. 🧵
5
4
85
Just wanted to explain something to people who may not know this. We should all always expect a preliminary EF3 rating on violent tornadoes. Any EF4+ tornado needs additional confirmation before being assigned the rating. Barnsdall, which was a 180 mph EF4, was first rated EF3+.
3
9
83
It is now September 1. Dorian is expected to make landfall on Grand Abaco later that day. But with only hours before landfall, Dorian does the unthinkable. Again. In a feat like no other, her winds pick up from 150 mph, to a staggering, 185 mph. Dorian is a Category 5.
1
0
79
She then does the same thing to Grand Bahama. Her forward speed is now 0 mph. Her Category 5 winds sit over the island for an entire day, subjecting it to a never before seen terror that devastates the islands beyond recognition. Then, Dorian finally moves north and weakens.
1
2
79
I don’t know about everyone else but imo, Greensburg was the scariest tornado ever. An almost 2 mile wide wedge only illuminated by lightening swallowing a town whole.
9
6
73
You know who Broyles reminds me of? Reed Timmer. They both are the best of the best who warn people of what COULD happen. They both have the logic that the best course of action is not to scare people but still have them understand the worst case scenario. I 100% agree with it.
2
5
71
Look at the 2 houses completely gone in the back. Those look like very high end DI’s. The 2 in the bottom left also could be.
2
12
72
OTD last year, a violent EF4 tornado with winds up to 195 mph would tear through Rolling Fork and Silver City, Mississippi becoming the strongest and deadliest tornado of the year. 17 people lost their lives and 160 were injured. The tornado was on the ground for 59 miles.
4
17
72
For the next round in the Best Satellite Photo Contest, we have Hurricane Andrew at its original Category 5 peak vs a picture of Super Typhoon Haiyan at its unbelievable, likely 200+ mph peak intensity. For me, it’s not even a competition. Vote in the comments!
5
7
70
She makes one of the strongest landfalls the Atlantics ever seen. Her winds and storm surge engulf Grand Abaco the island into “pure hell.” It is unsurvivable for those in houses that do not reach above the rushing waters. Houses crash into each other and visibility is near zero.
1
0
70
@RyanWx_
I heard that the spotters little brother stole his iPad while he was at school or work.
0
0
68
Hurricane Milton is one of the strongest storms I’ve ever tracked, only beaten by Mawar and Bolaven. It is the strongest Atlantic hurricane most of us have ever seen and we will likely never see anything like this for a long time. The 2024 hurricane season is unreal.
3
8
66
In 2020, we had Category 4 Hurricane Laura hit Louisiana. In 2021, Category 4 Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana. In 2022, Category 5 Hurricane Ian hit Florida as a Category 4. In 2023, Category 4 Idalia hit Florida as a Cat 3. Will we have yet another major hurricane strike the states?
5
9
65
Dorian would form east of the Lesser Antilles and struggle early in its life. It would impact Barbados and St. Lucia as a tropical storm before moving north and strengthening to a hurricane. It would then go own to hit the British Virgin Islands as a minor hurricane.
1
0
65
This is very concerning. Matthew is someone I trust and learn from a ton, especially when it comes to the tropics. He doesn’t hype things up and doesn’t use crazy single model runs for forecasts. When he starts saying there’s a trend, it’s time to pay attention.
12z ECMWF has followed other models towards a bonafide TC by Tuesday night..faster organization trend continues.
2
15
103
3
5
64
After watching hours of drone footage of damage in Rolling Fork, I made a map of what I think the intensity was at certain spots. It’s unbelievable how quickly this tornado fluctuated in intensity. I know I’m gonna get hate for the EF-2 but in that area only roofs were removed.
6
6
63
@225MPH_EF4
Am I the only one who thinks this isn’t standing a chance when a car comes flying at it?
7
0
59
At this point in time, Dorian was beginning to catch the attention of Florida and the Bahamas. She was expected to strengthen before hitting these areas, possibly as a major hurricane. However, many questions remained unanswered. Just how strong could Dorian get?
1
0
61
Beryl looking really good on 3D imagery right now. Definitely trying to get that eye out.
0
11
60
What do you think the strongest tornado this year has been?
Barnsdall, OK 5/6
765
Marietta, OK 4/28
111
Elkhorn, NE 4/26
219
Harlan, IA 4/26
222
19
3
61
In the dead of night, a monster, charging towards Rolling Fork, and stronger and more unforgiving, than anyone could imagine. The tornado happened 346 days ago, but the memories for many, are just as horrifyingly fresh as they were the night it happened.
3
5
60
This was the Taco Bell and Winchester church. Both of these buildings were completely demolished and partially swept. Not sure how good the building quality was. Definitely a strong to violent tornado.
4
13
57
300 new followers in less than 24 hours! Thank you so much to everyone and I cannot wait to make more weather content in the future!
5
2
58
For the next round of the Best Satellite Photo Contest, we have an incredible close up view of Hurricane Beryl’s eye vs the infamous “skull presentation” on IR during Hurricane Matthew. Vote which one you like more in the comments!
8
3
58
This is probably the worst surge I’ve ever seen tracking hurricanes. I can’t even recall Ian wiping away this many homes in a concentrated area because of its surge. I don’t know storms like Laura or Ida well but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the worst surge since Micheal.
The surge damage is Keaton Beach is terrible, some of the worst I’ve ever seen. All of these used to be homes.
#helene
101
1K
4K
1
5
55
What's your guy's favorite weather GIF of all time? This is mine. Hurricane Dorian barreling down on the Bahamas with winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 910 mb. An unprecedented intensity for a hurricane north of the Caribbean. Some estimates even put it closer to 190 mph.
2
4
55
She would move up the east coast while she continued to weaken, clipping the Outer Banks as a Category 1, delivering strong winds and flooding. She continues to weaken and becomes extra tropical before hitting Canada. Dorian finally dies on September 10.
1
0
56
We need a break real bad. Sadly, we might only get this weekend before we’re on to May’s first big time trough. The atmosphere has no limits and it is reminding us of that in a scary way. I feel like we’ve seen a major tornado every day for the past week.
5
1
53
Can someone please explain this to me? These pictures are from the same spot and both on 10 second exposure. Why did it just go away?
4
1
53
Now, let’s fast forward in time. It’s now August 30. Dorian has strengthened to a Category 2, nearly a day earlier than originally expected. She is now expected to become a Category 4 before slamming into the Bahamas. But a question began to rise. Would Dorian hit Florida?
1
0
53
Major Hurricane
#Helene
now has winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 951 mb. The NHC now forecasts a devastating category 4 landfall later tonight. This storm will certainly be one that will go down in history.
0
13
52
Dorian is expected to come to a complete stop before moving north. The problem is, it will stop directly over Grand Bahama as an extremely dangerous, Category 4 storm. The Bahamas are scrambling to prepare. Some people evacuate the islands while others stay for the worst.
1
0
52
I've been going throughout the town on Google maps for the past hour, finding all of the homes that were damaged or destroyed. This specific home was completely slabbed. There are a few main things I noticed. Most homes are single story homes. 1/2
4
2
52
Invest 95L is well underway to being named Beryl. Deep connection is still firing and there is a clear center of circulation. This is pretty concerning and rare to see in this part of the Atlantic in June. I really hope this is not a preview of what’s to come.
2
6
50
@Avis
@ReedTimmerUSA
Avis, Reed is a remarkable driver. He is able to avoid deadly situations and returns cars in exciting conditions. He rents all the time but when he doesn’t, he drives his own car into some windy little storms. No biggie. I promise you, Reed is one of your most important customers
3
0
51
Ok so umm.... This is an interesting case where everything is absolutely primed but we're not sure how many cells there will be. They could go high in northern Oklahoma but I don't see it UNLESS the HRRR shows cells further south on future runs. Next part is a must read. 1/?
1
5
50
While largely overshadowed by the devastating Bridge Creek-Moore F5, the Mulhall F4 was a beast in its own right. While officially determined to be just over a mile wide, a DOW found tornadic winds to extend over 4 miles from the center. Some believe it was stronger than Moore.
1
4
47