FinallyFoolin
@FinallyFoolin
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July 2024 Portfolio Update
July was an interesting month. The first half or so was pretty decent and I was hitting 52 week highs. However, the last couple weeks were NOT very good. Ended up down for the month.
YTD: 11.74%
TRANSACTIONS:
Made one big sell this month, that was
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I try to stick finance here but, my mom passed today. She fought cancer for over a decade and got to the point her body couldn't take any more. Please give your loved ones an extra hug for me.
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Just finished the $SNOW call. WOW!! Not sure why you would sell. A TON to like. This is why you can't go just off the ER, gotta read/listen to the call. It was so good that I broke my 20% max in an investment rule and bought more.
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Just finished the $SNOW call.
I need to up my allocation!!
WOWSERS!! First, I really love listening to calls where I fully understand EVERYTHING they're saying. All the techy stuff. Heck, I use many of the preview features discussed!! Lemme tell ya, they are being very modest
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$SNOW thoughts (post CC)
First, the obvious. Not good that they pre-guided then guided lower than that. However, that doesn't break the thesis.
Second, the economic environment has a big impact; as it is with almost all companies. We can't compare what's happening now with if
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Finished the $DDOG call this morning. My thoughts. Next Q likely to come in mid to upper 40% YoY range. Lots of talk about no issues with NEW customers and record pipeline but EXPAND is slowed, especially with discretionary companies fully in the cloud (food delivery)
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Just finished the $SNOW call. Overall, I was expecting a bit better results. The AI story is still in-tact and I see it daily at my job.
First, one thing I want to point out, which is UBER BULLISH for $NVDA,
We don't actually buy GPUs. We rent them. So, I just want to clarify
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Snowflake having containers in their ecosystem is huuuuuuge. The TAM has exploded. $SNOW could become a hyperscaler built on hyperscaler. Imagine installing MongoDB in a Snowflake container... If they continue focusing on turnkey they could be the apple of hyperscaler...
I never
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$SNOW pre-cc thoughts.
I did NOT see that coming. Slootman stepping down, being replaced by Sridhar Ramaswamy, an AI visionary who was brought aboard in the NEEVA acquisition last year and also led Google Advertising products from 1.5B to over 100B.
Revenue for the quarter
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$S thoughts
Sentinel One screwed up. No other way to put it. They screwed up in a couple ways that caused them to mislead themselves & to mislead investors. They are paying the price for it now. I think this is also why they're reducing staff as their profitability goals remain
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Just finished $ZS call.
Very happy with this report! A rare higher than expected BEAT & RAISE!
Not really sure why the sell-off. Something between an impact an accounting change to EPS & Billings. The accounting change doesn't impact the business so I'm not worried there.
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Just finished $SNOW call. I'm very happy with where they are and what they're doing. I'm excited about the new CEO.
Many people's (including my own) biggest complaint with Snowflake over the past few years is how long new features take to get to GA or even Open Preview (where
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Finally got around to listening to the $SNOW call.
While disappointing that the annual guidance was lowered, the story hasn't changed. In fact, over the past 3-5 months, they are positioned even BETTER for the future due to the AI stuff going on.
Wonder why suddenly it seems
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Finishing $DDOG call. My take, they still have a brighter future than competitors that have reported better Q's ( $DT ) because they have more exposure to cloud. Optimizing spend is much much easier and one of the HUUUUUUUGE benefits for the cloud as opposed to on-prem where you
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$ZS thoughts
VERY solid quarter. As expected, this Q's QoQ was seasonally weaker. Guide shows QoQ acceleration next Q. Enterprise customer growth steady from last Q. Looks like a solid 60% grower for the foreseeable future. Keeping my position. Conviction remains in-tact.
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Just finished $MDB call. Lots and lots of talk about tough upcoming comps and Macro headwinds. More Macro headwinds than any of my other companies have discussed. Honestly, I'm surprised as I thought they were more mission critical.
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$DDOG initial thoughts. Very solid quarter, not a blowout like last. Rev came in around expected, guide weaker than I expected. Margins OUTSTANDING. FCF at 36%. Concerned about weaker guide; could portend a slowdown to 70s or 60s
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$SNOW Preview. Reports Wednesday after the bell. REMEMBER, their headline revenue number is PRODUCT revenue, not TOTAL revenue. Every single quarter this causes issues. Also, they guide in PRODUCT revenue.
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Just finished listening to the $SNOW call while reading the transcript. Outside of the raw numbers, this is a VERY good report.
What I LOVED!!
Consumption: Optimizations, while always on-going, have essentially bottomed.
*NOT SEEING CUSTOMERS REDUCE CONSUMPTION RIGHT NOW
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$DDOG reports on Thursday! I'm expecting revenue upper 70s YoY (415K). Some slight deceleration. Continued FCF & Operating leverage. It'll be interesting to hear discussion about macro.
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Just finished $SNOW call.
LOVED listening to this call. Sridhar provided a TON of great AI depth and knowedge and how it applies to business. More convinced than ever that he's the right person to steer this ship.
Biggest takeaways - Snowflake executing on making AI easy for
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My end of June Portfolio Update
+ 14.15%
A bit more time this month for writeups than the past couple months. Also, I made more moves this month than I have in a while. My overall returns this year have been impacted by my large positions in NVDA (a positive), TSLA & SNOW (both
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Even though its my 2nd biggest position and around 20% of my portfolio, couldn't resist buying more $ZS today with the FUD of Microsoft getting into SASE.
If you follow Microsoft's product development, they USUALLY get it right, eventually. They RARELY get it right the first
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Watching a webinar from $SNOW on Hybrid tables and UNISTORE. This is a BIG BIG deal. I mean HUUUUUGE deal. The possibilities here are... WOW.
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One thing I say a lot is technology advances quickly but adoption much slower.
A bit of anecdotal information on $SNOW. I work for a regional consulting company in one of the top 15 cities by population in the US. The city is know as a Microsoft town because the vast majority of
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$SNOW reports Wednesday!!
FIRST, Reminder that EVERYONE panics when they see the revenue number. The BIG headline number they report is PRODUCT revenue, not TOTAL revenue.
I'm interested in hearing how the LARGE customers are moving forward with their projects. Is the MACRO
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Just finished the $NET call. Lots of thoughts. First, disappointed about NO WORD OR QUESTION about FEDRamp. Second, felt like UPSELL was the theme of the prepared statements and some of the questions.
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Just finished $SNOW call.
Just finished the call, still very very happy with the company. Love what they're doing with/for customers to help them.
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Just finished listening to $SNOW call. WOW, impressive. First, I expect YoY to dip next Q (tough comp) then re-accelerate after that. I think Frank's initial comments should not be glossed over.
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Just listened to the $CFLT call. To be honest, after the report dropped, I thought, "pretty good, still leaning towards selling out". However, after listening to the call, I think I'm going to hang on to my small position.
CONGRATS to those who had the guts to buy more after
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$ZS pre-cc thoughts. Solid report.
FCF!! Is that a typo? 45% FCF Margin?? 224. More than DOUBLE previous high from last Q
Beat/Raise!!
Guiding into their seasonally weakest Q and a weaker guide than I'd prefer but still an annualized run rate around 30%
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$NET thoughts post-cc
Lots to like and lots of concern. While I love top notch products, it take much more than that to win. Look no further than Teams v Slack. Slack is a much better and easier to use tool but Teams is dominating that market. Unless the product sells itself, the
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$CRWD, nice quarter. I don't have a position anymore but hopefully bodes well for $S!! Impressive bottom line, smaller beat than historical (supports what we've seen from other companies about further deterioration in the economy). FY guide at their scale & with this environment
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Since November: THE CLOUD IS DEAD.
Earnings Releases: LONG LIVE THE CLOUD!!
Azure up 49% YoY constant currency
GCP up 43.8%, not sure what constant currency is
BOTH ACCELERATED AT SCALE IN CONSTANT CURRENCY
$SNOW, $MDB, $DDOG, $NET
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$SNOW preview. Reports Wednesday PM.
Model indicates 64-77% YoY. I think it'll be closer to 70%. Due to consumption model, DON'T PLAY Q to Q game with $SNOW. Watch longer-term trends.
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I've been talking about this for a while and finally just did it. I lowered my $SNOW due to its outsized allocation (was 33%) and put what I sold into $MELI. I've owned MELI in the past. This gives me now about 30% in non pure Software companies.
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$SNOW pre-cc thoughts.
Beat/Raise.
Another very solid quarter. I'd rate this as better than both $ZS & $CRWD. QoQ acceleration. Solid guide as well. Great setup for FY '24!
FCF & operating income continuing to look good & improve.
DBNRR "down" to 135, still best in class,
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Saul's write-up on his board is, as always, very enlightening. Like everyone, he makes mistakes but he is very clear and logical with his reasonings. Don't just blindly follow people but learn from their good & bad. I know Saul isn't on here but am very grateful.
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The value of Saul's board can't be overstated. The contributions there... Learning and helping each other learn. Great different perspectives and thoughts. For anyone who hasn't discovered it yet.
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$CRWD pre-cc thoughts
Like $ZS yesterday, very solid. From purely numbers, I think $CRWD is slightly better. QoQ acceleration and guide indicates another slight acceleration next quarter.
No standout FCF like $ZS had but continuing very solid margins and cash. POSITIVE
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$NET reports after the bell on Thursday. Before last Q, their beats were very predictable. It'll be interesting if the beat number reverts back to their mean (3-4%). There seems to be some slight seasonality in the Q they are to guide to (Q1) so expect a slightly lower guide.
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$BILL preview. Probably my most complicated company! First, potential headwinds from Macro, however, they proved more resiliant than most companies during COVID. Some impact of course but not as much as many others.
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$DDOG reports Thursday. Preview:
Model shows YoY growth slowdown, as with seemingly every company these days. Somewhere in the 45-54% range. QoQ likely to be higher than last Q. Also, from the last CC, I noted a decent chance of a stronger beat than previous ones. In addition,
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Found a bit of cash sitting around... only question is do I add to $DDOG, $NET or $BILL now that they've dropped 7-8% on NO NEWS, well, I guess reporting tomorrow is the news. Leaning towards $DDOG even though I have a 19-20% position already.
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Just finished the $NET call. My thoughts.
Overall, nothing earth-shattering. They are confident they are being VERY prudent... although last Q they were too and only beat by .7% so I'm keeping that in the lets wait & see bucket!
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End of month portfolio update. I'm currently at the airport on my way to Snowflake's Cloud Data Summit.
My portfolio is up 2.6% so far this year
TRANSACTIONS:
None but plan to up my SNOW
Company thoughts:
I've benefited from NVDA but really been hurt by SNOW & TSLA this year.
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$SNOW Pre-cc thoughts.
Total revenue tad lighter than I had hoped but very solid given the macro environment. They are getting quite good at predictable guidance, very much in the 4-5% range every quarter except one since the surprise Q3 over a year ago. I think this is very
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$S post-cc interesting (to me) quotes/comments as well as my random thoughts.
First, beat was smallest; like with almost every company. Sounds like they are definitely taking this into account moving forward so hopefully beats get a bit bigger. In any case, revenue continuing to
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$SNOW is the closest thing we have to investing in a hyperscaler at an earlier stage
$MSFT Azure is an absurdly great business.
42% constant currency growth at this scale is wild.
Hard to overstate.
I think it would take me under 5 seconds to become a shareholder if it ever got spun off for whatever reason.
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From a high-level standpoint, what is the base difference between $SNOW & $MDB "usage" based models?
$SNOW is all about data, $MDB is all about apps.
App usage can go up & down.
Data volumes go up and as time goes on, at an exponential rate. The only time computed data goes
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Initial $DDOG thoughts. I won't listen to the call until maybe tomorrow (I read the transcript while listening)
Numbers for the past Q are solid. Not at all happy with the annual or next Q guide. A year ago, a company signaling growth in the 20s was an automatic sell. Now...
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$CRWD pre-CC thoughts.
Very impressed that their growth is much more sustained than most other companies. Sure, its slowing down but it seems more law-of-large-numbers slowdown rather than macro. Very very impressive. Nice profitability numbers and continuing to improve overall
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Random musings. $PLTR. I have seen a lot of discussion from bulls, bears and such. I've listened to calls and read tech documentation. I'm very disappointed in that the vast vast vast majority of the talk is very high-level, making it difficult, even for a techie, to understand
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Snowflake announces Polaris Catalog, the industry adopting Iceberg Tables instead of Delta Tables, Databricks panic buys to get in on Iceberg tables... but, Unity Catalog ONLY works on Delta Tables. Polaris Catalog & Arctic both PURE open-source, unlike Databricks things.
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$ZS initial pre-cc thoughts. Total revenue and guide a tad lower than I expected but still very solid. Expect most of the rest of the year to be in 50 range YoY. VERY HAPPY with leverage. 24% FCF & 12% Operating!! Still a lot of work to do thru these numbers.
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$ZS pre-cc thoughts
Another SOLID quarter. >5% beat; on the higher side. QoQ ACCELERATION. Guide indicates more QoQ ACCELERATION.
FCF & Operating margins looking good!
Continue to be under-appreciated but very solid performance.
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$S just finished the call
Model for next Q shows 98-113% YoY revenue. aQoQ a bit weaker range (61-117). Look at those margin graph, line continues to go up and to the right!! RAISED FY GUIDANCE. Not many did that, especially 4% or so up!
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$ZS pre CC thoughts.
Wow, VERY impressed with the numbers especially given the macro. VERY solid across the board. Seemingly less impact this Q than others. Indicating 50%ish YoY next Q as well. Upped yearly guidance? Who does that in THIS environment?? $ZS does, that's who.
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@ronjonbSaaS
Maybe he did it because you have been trashing the board and it's members so much. Enough with the drama, let's focus on all of us getting wealthy. I don't care if you beat all the Saul people, just that we all destroy the markets.
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$CRWD initial pre-CC thoughts. Overall, solid. Slightly less revenue and slightly smaller beat than they have done but with the revenue and profitability metrics, very solid. How many companies outside $SNOW can grow +50% YoY at 2B ARR? Not many.
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$S preview. Tomorrow PM.
Model indicates 107-122% YoY. This Q, model has been a tad high because beat numbers have been lower than in the past 4-5 q's. Things to look for: Margin improvement, MSSP partnerships & moving up-market
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Shout-out to
@davey_juice
for his continual conviction at buying $ZS over the past few weeks as the stock fell. Many others had a mindset of, "someone always knows something" Truth is, NOBODY knows.
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For those looking for Saul's board. Here is the new link. I LOVE the new format and features. It was sorely needed!!
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$SNOW reports today after the bell.
First, as always, remember the first number they report is PRODUCT revenue, not TOTAL revenue.
Model expecting between 623 & 647 TOTAL revenue (PRODUCT revenue guide would be 588-608).
I'm MOST interested in hearing about Snowpark usage.
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$NET earnings call.
In Q1, our pipeline generation slowed, sales cycles extended, and customers took longer to pay their bills. We watched those metrics closely throughout Q2 and saw them all at least stabilized.
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$CRWD initial thoughts (pre-cc).
For a company with very regular beats (3.5-4.5%), this beat of .89% definitely indicates something happened they didn't expect.
That said, still hypergrowth in this environment! Still highly profitable.
Holding my 10% position.
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DDOG reports Thursday morning. Preview
Guidance last Q was very cautious. It'll be interesting if it really was 'overly' cautious or there really is a bigger-ish slowdown happening. My model shows average beat bringing YoY to 67%. The aQoQ comes in at 50%.
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Last Q, I sold out of $MDB. One of the big reasons was Atlas slowdown. In an effort to do my DD on MDB, reading the transcript and this Atlas slowdown is a lot worse than I had expected. I'm not sure why the stock popped but I DEFINITELY don't want to touch it.
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$SNOW pre-CC thoughts
Solid quarter. Q2 results, Q3 guide and implied Q4 guide ALL indicate re-accelerating from past couple quarters and stabilizing growth in mid to high 30s range.
VERY happy with the BIG jump of G2000 customers.
DBNRR dropped a lot, still very good 142
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Portfolio End of January. Discovered Saul's in 2019. Last 3 years annualized returns = 50%. 470% (27% annualized) since booting Morgan Stanley advisor and going solo in 2015. Still learning...
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$SNOW & $MSFT deeper partnership. Looky here.
Microsoft is pushing out (current preview) for ZERO code ZERO ETL from Azure SQL Database, Azure Cosmos Database AND SNOWFLAKE to Fabric. Very very interesting that Snowflake is involved and we'll see if/how this gets replicated the
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March '24 Portfolio Update:
3.27% YTD
March was negative for me. My YTD returns are a mix between great (NVDA) and not-so-great (TSLA & SNOW). I'm getting really excited about the r/r for TSLA & SNOW here. Especially TSLA for FSD, which apparently isn't beta anymore. I don't
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$ZS reports Thursday. Preview:
I said a few months ago that I believe companies that rely upon upsell more than new customers will do better in this environment. Hopefully that rings true with ZS & SNOW this week.
Model expects revenue between 380 & 386 with overall growth rates
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I have to read
@hhhypergrowth
newsletters multiple times to understand it fully. Such detail and deep technical information... and I'm a techie!! Thank you Muji! Pure GOLD
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Just finished $CFLT call. I tried out a new method of listening to it; with the help of ChatGPT. Summarized first then listened and added context. Note, I didn't buy or sell although I thought about buying more, just couldn't bring myself to sell something else. Maybe as Earnings
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$SNOW, haven't had a chance to do much other than read the numbers. WOW! Surprised me to the positive as I expected a bit worse then inflection in a Q or two. Wow!
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$NET pre-CC thoughts
A tad disappointed in the revenue & guide. Seems they're still figuring out this environment. REALLY like the bottom line numbers FCF & Op Margins at RECORD HIGHS. All in all, SOLID quarter given the MACRO.
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November Portfolio Update:
November started not so great (Confluent) but ended up fantastic as my portfolio started the month up 22.5% and ended close to 50%!! The last week especially saw over 50% of my portfolio value reporting (Zscaler, Crowdstrike, Snowflake) and ALL had
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$S reports tomorrow. My preview.
Expecting revenue between 98 & 105% YoY. Like everyone, expect growth to continue to slow. Looking for continued margin improvements & interested in hearing about the cloud product. This is the earnings report I have been most excited about; so I
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Dec 2023 END OF YEAR update:
There were many ups & downs for my portfolio, many challenging decisions (fighting instinct and trying to make unemotional decisions). Many lessons learned (and re-learned). The results were very good this year! My 3 year is still negative due to the
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$ZS pre-cc thoughts.
Surprise to the high side (haven't said that in a while). Biggest beat in over a year. Raised FY guide in this environment is impressive as well. Margins continuing STEADY improvement. Whatever the bounces were last year, the margins are no longer doing that.
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$SNOW preview.
I'm expecting PRODUCT revenue to be between 830 & 850M with total revenue between 870 & 895M. This represents between 29 & 33% YoY. I expect it'll be closer to 895 than 870 though.
Key things I'm paying attention to:
AI & LLM adoption
Snowpark usage
Consumption
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$NET reports on Thursday after the bell. They have a great chance to have another small, tiny, YoY acceleration. Yes, even in this MACRO environment. My model indicates from 54-56% YoY. Other things I'm watching include R2 as iirc, they should start making $$ from it.
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$CFLT initial thoughts.
I'm new to this company and its just a 4% position. Overall, the numbers look OK. Not the same kind of stabilizing trend that we saw from AWS & Azure though.
Confluent Cloud still growing at 61% YoY is really good in this environment. The guide is a bit
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Reading over the $NET call and some interesting comments from Prince regarding Security and indirectly, $CRWD. This one indicating companies looking to NOT consolidate vendors but the opposite, use multiple vendors. Question is, who will be the biggest beneficiaries? $S, $NET
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$SNOW reports Wednesday. What should we be looking for? First, as with any $SNOW report, when the report is first released, REMEMBER the big number they tout is NOT overall revenue. It is a SUBSET of revenue (Product Revenue).
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Finally listening to $ZS call. Just a few minutes in and WOW, some awesome stuff.
Targeting rule of 80 for FULL YEAR
About HALF Global 2000 have ZIA & ZPA
Total Future Rev > 2B (about twice LTM revenue)
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$SNOW just upped their TAM by a large amount!! Support for TRANSACTIONAL workloads! Break down the need to MOVE data by building applications in a ROW STORE on SNOWFLAKE
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$CRWD pre-cc thoughts.
Solid quarter, seasonably weakest? Lowest beat I have on record... Even with the same very low beat, guide for next Q will have QoQ acceleration.
Lots of cash being produced!! Trends in this area continuing!
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$SNOW making AI easy for ANYONE
Watching
@jeffhollan
@ Snowflake Build.
Use LLMs in a FUNCTION
1. Translate from foreign languages in 1 LINE of code
2. Send to llama2
3. demo of using NVIDIA container
4. Connect to streamlit app with just a few lines of code to then allow
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Listening to $S call. The similarity of their growth to that of $CRWD at the same revenue run rate is fascinating; even slightly better in some areas. Other big takeaways, very little MACRO impact & lots of MSSP discussion.
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June was a bit up then a bit down. Overall, I ended up a tad higher than May. Not too bad considering the beating I took on Sentinel One at the beginning of the month!!
Transactions:
Sold a little of my Sentinel One position and put that mostly into Crowdstrike. Still
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Just finished $BILL call while reading the transcript. FF's random thoughts. Like I've said before, my most complicated company. A whole lot to like. As others have stated, a whole lot of talk about tailwinds, and very little headwinds.
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$NET thoughts. Quarter appears very very bad. Missed guidance for the Q, very low guidance for next Q, lowered annual guidance for this year.
The lowered annual guidance is probably the worst because of how far off-base they were 3 months ago.
This is all Pre-CC thoughts. I
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$BILL reports TODAY after the bell!! Model predicts revenue in the range of 257-291M. BILL is harder to predict due to beat numbers being all over the place although the past two q's have been around 9% which would place this Q about 266M.
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Listening to $DDOG call. Some interesting things. At first glance, RPO has a big dropoff, however, could be a mistake to follow that as retention rates continue to be strong. Not likely to see churn etc... Smaller contract lengths & renewals.
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Finishing up $CRWD call.
ARR was lower than expected and as a result, the beat was much smaller than the usual 3.5-4.5% range. They obviously were surprised by this. Hopefully they learned enough this Q to have their guides be more in the 4% range going forward.
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$MDB thoughts. I no longer hold a position but was hopeful to be wrong. Unfortunately, this quarter looks really bad. With a similar beat, next quarter's revenue to come in around 3% QoQ. Annual guide coming in at 17.6% YoY. Op Margins improved, FCF about the same as a year ago.
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$CRWD Preview
Model predicts between 596 & 603 for the Q; between 57 & 59% YoY and aQoQ 54-62%. Expect STRONG FCF the next couple Q's as they said they'll be > 30% for the year.
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Just finished $BILL call. FIRST QUARTER NON-GAAP PROFITABILITY!! Look for it to continue!!
Lowering growth expectations due to economic factors. "Only" growing 15% QoQ (with typical beat). Basically, fantastic report, especially given the economy.
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