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OSINT China Analysts / Consulting / Founded by @GabrieleIuvina1 @iuvinale_n

Joined January 2021
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@ExtremaRatio4
Extrema Ratio
2 years
La Cina di Xi Jinping. 2023 Amazon: 👇 Stango editore 👇
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The network of infiltration, espionage and influence of the Chinese Communist Party to subvert Western countries is beyond anyone's understanding... What to do right away? Abstract On December 19, 2024, @FBI agents arrested Yaoning “Mike” Sun, 64, on federal charges of acting as an illegal agent of the People's Republic of China (#PRC) while he was a campaign manager for a political candidate elected in 2022 to the city council of a Southern California city and of conspiring with another man, Chen Jun, already sentenced to federal prison for acting as an illegal agent of the of the PRC government. Chen Jun, allegedly told his cellmate that he worked for the #610Office, an extralegal CCP police agency created in 1999. He claimed the Chinese regime paid him $250,000 to emigrate to the United States decades ago and then sent him $50,000 a month. It's not just an isolated incident. There are literally hundreds of them. The level of infiltration and subversion in the #UnitedStates, #Canada, the #UnitedKingdom and #Australia is beyond anyone's comprehension. ... The Chinese have been building these operations and networks since the 1980s. The case Chen it's just a case where someone got caught. This is just the tip of the iceberg of espionage and influence operations throughout the United States and Western countries. The fact is deeply worrying: the defendant is accused of having acted on behalf of the People's Republic of China to influence the #US political system. But it is not an isolated case because this happens in all #Western countries. The Chinese Communist Party has the power to inculcate false information into the American (and Western) public debate, to the point that it becomes public knowledge. The FBI defines this phenomenon as “information laundering”.  Information laundering falls into the category of “covert influence operations.” Information is used as a weapon of “disinformation”. Disinformation is an “information war”, which is part of the “cognitive warfare”. A part of its military doctrine of “unrestricted warfare,” of the #LiminalWarfare that #Beijing has been waging against the West for years. Although the #CCP has aggressively strengthened its military for decades, its plan is to never have to resort to conventional warfare—that is, if forced, to fight against an already greatly weakened enemy.  The first thing the United States and Western countries need is a government-wide strategy. To date we have nothing; we have no way to counter the PRC's covert political influence operations. Even worse, we don't even have the slightest understanding of it. Our government agencies have no understanding of this. There is no understanding of how China is carrying out its political warfare and, as a result, there is no strategy to deal with it and awareness must also be extended to the state level, where the CCP has been active. The other thing that must be done immediately is that the members of the #government, the #parliamentarians, must be assisted and correctly informed. Businesses also need government support when dealing with the CCP. Western companies are subject to pressure placed on them by the CCP to support Chinese policies or to remain silent about them. They cannot be expected to resist this on their own. They must have the government's support in order to resist the CCP's coercion. #ExtremaRatio
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It is possible that by the end there will be Israeli airstrikes against Iranian nuclear production sites, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing U.S. intelligence analysis from both the Biden and Trump administrations. “An Israeli attack on Iran's heavily fortified nuclear sites would likely require U.S. military support and munitions, given their complexity, U.S. military officials say.”
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On Wednesday, US President Donald #Trump held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir #Putin. A day later, Trump said that the first meeting, which they agreed on during the telephone conversation, will take place in Saudi Arabia The conversation marked the first dialogue between the leaders of the two countries in three years. Putin's last conversation with the previous American president, Joe Biden, took place on February 12, 2022. According to the Kremlin, the conversation lasted over an hour and a half. The presidents discussed a variety of issues, including “#Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects,” according to Trump’s statement on the social network Truth Social. The US President also stated that he is in favor of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin underlined the significance of eliminating the conflict's fundamental causes while acknowledging that negotiations can result in a long-term settlement. Both leaders declared their desire to cooperate and establish bilateral ties. The Kremlin also reported that the Russian President invited Trump to visit Moscow. In turn, the American leader stated that they had agreed to work closely. “We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now,” Trump wrote. He also expressed hope that a ceasefire is possible “in the not too distant future” and that new elections should be held in the country, but Ukrainian law does not allow elections during martial law.
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#Estonian #Foreign #IntelligenceService: #China has been smuggling #Western components to help #Russia produce #drones. China has become a hub for the #Russianmilitary to smuggle in Western components essential for producing military drones, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said in its annual national security report released today. The report states that about 80% of these parts currently shipped to Russia come from China. Previous #Ukrainian #intelligencereports indicated that about 60% of the foreign components in #Russianweapons used on the Ukrainian #battlefield came from China. The report stated that China is an "important hub" for Russia, where it imports #hightech and #dualuse products to evade #Westernsanctions. As we have shown for years (me and Gabriele Iuvinale), the report confirms that #scientificcollaboration is a tool used by the Chinese Communist Party (#CCP) to access Western technology and enhance its capabilities. A significant part of the research activities in #Chineseuniversities is taken care of by a party organization operating within the university. When forming scientific partnerships with China, it is crucial to carefully analyze the background of the potential partner and its previously published research. Chinese state-owned enterprises (#SOEs) often serve the function of policy instruments, implementing the country's strategic visions rather than operating solely as business entities. SOEs actively coordinate with Chinese government agencies and ministries. The political ties of Chinese state-owned enterprises provide them with competitive advantages that distort #globalmarkets. Tomorrow we will publish a special report on the intelligence report of Estonia, a #NATO member country. #ChinaNexus #JOSEPAREJO&ASSOCIATES
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Several Western countries have repeatedly accused China of using initiatives and programs, unconstrained by respect for international law and human rights, to wield global economic power and bring other countries under its domination. The main instrument of this strategy is the so-called Belt and Road Initiative by which Beijing expands foreign markets for the benefit of Chinese companies while drawing other countries and their political and economic elites into its geopolitical orbit. The BRI presents various risks (political, economic, social, legal, and environmental), including the accumulation of excessive debt to China, being forced to transfer technology, and possibly undermining the unity of the host state. In addition, there is much opacity because it is not always possible to ascertain whether Chinese projects are actually related to BRI. Indeed, there is no publicly available inventory of the initiative's official activities, nor one that lists member states' contributions to participating financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). In 2024, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) saw significant financial engagement. Preliminary data indicates that China invested approximately $92.4 billion in various projects across the 149 countries involved in the BRI. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) encompasses numerous large-scale infrastructure projects across the globe. In 2024, the United States invested approximately $60 billion in global infrastructure projects. This investment was part of the broader effort to counterbalance China’s Belt and Road Initiative and to support sustainable development in various regions. The investments focused on key areas such as renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and transportation networks. #ChinaNexus JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES #ExtremaRatio #China #UnitedStates #BeltandRoad Read more at:
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We personally believe that #China has been fighting its #LiminalWarfare against the #West for years. But we in the West, including the #UnitedStates, say we pretended not to see what was happening.... In 2001 China's #economic weight was comparable to #France's; today it weighs more than the entire #eurozone. It has the largest and fastest growing #military in the world; the largest #navy. It now has #militarybases everywhere because the #thirdphase of the #BRI has already begun: military defense of #foreigninvestment. Now foreign investment is directly related to its #nationaldefense. The U.S. has no alternative but to not shy away from confrontation (not necessarily conventional #war) because it is inevitable for #XiJinping's stated goals. 👇 On #Guancha newspaper Jin Canrong explains that #Trump is preparing for a "decisive battle" against China. "Trump 2.0's key diplomatic strategy remains confrontation with China. Trump is readjusting the U.S. diplomatic structure. He hopes to expand U.S. power by annexing #Canada, #Greenland, #Panama and other places. He also proposes to take control of #Gaza and directly occupy strategic land in the #MiddleEast. Although these measures may seem bizarre, they are understandable from the perspective of preparing for a strategic confrontation with China. Because whether it is the "1.0" era or the "2.0" era of Trump, the series of measures against China is obviously paving the way for the final decisive battle. If it is established that an opponent is extremely powerful and that a confrontation with him is inevitable in the future, then it is natural to prepare for a decisive battle. Therefore, at the domestic level, Trump has laid a stronger foundation for the United States by strengthening the manufacturing sector, expelling illegal immigrants and promoting social cohesion; and restoring traditional values to strengthen the domestic economy and improve social cohesion. Internationally, Trump's strategic choices include transforming the United States into the world's largest empire by significantly expanding its #NorthAmerican territory; wooing #Russia at the expense of #Ukraine to contain China; occupying key points in the Middle East, the strategic core of the #Eurasian continent, to enhance the strategic position of the United States; and strengthening control over its allies to increase America's global power. The ultimate goal of this series of measures is to better prepare for the strategic match with China. In the face of this situation, I believe (ndr china Expert) China must remain calm, prepare itself properly, strengthen its internal strength and continue to deepen diplomatic relations. The three #magicweapons proposed by Chairman #Mao: "united front, armed struggle and party building" are not outdated. Adherence to these principles will help China occupy an advantageous position in global competition."
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Between industrial parks and Chinese cars, Mexico is a growing hub for Beijing's FDI. As of now, the start of 2025, there are several Chinese industrial parks in Mexico, with notable examples including the Hofusan Industrial Park near Monterrey, which hosts manufacturing plants for ten Chinese companies. When one is considering how to navigate the U.S. import tariffs, for many Chinese manufacturers, pulling the trigger on nearshoring is the right move. Honorable mention industrial parks are Vynmsa Industrial Park in Nuevo León, where companies like CFMoto and Lingong Machinery Group are significant new developments. These parks are big wins for the Mexican government, as we all know, incentives are one thing, and logistics and infrastructure is another, and if the infrastructure isn’t up to par with Chinese standards, they will make it so. The Belt and Road Initiative in Spanish, can you say “Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta”. #ChinaNexus JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES #ExtremaRatio #China #Mexico #IDE Read more at
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The #Egyptian satellite laboratory in #Cairo is the latest development in #China's #secretive overseas #spaceprogram. #Beijing is building a space alliance in #Africa to strengthen its global surveillance network and achieve its goal of becoming the world's dominant space power. "Cairo was supposed to be the first African factory to produce local satellites, but once we entered the factory, the "Made in Africa" image vanished. Looking around, I noticed that the satellite equipment and components were packed in wooden boxes shipped from Beijing. #Chinesescientists watched the space tracking equipment and gave instructions to Egyptian engineers, while a Chinese flag hung on the wall. The first factory-assembled satellite, believed to be the first satellite produced in-house by an African country, was mainly manufactured in China and launched into space from a launch center in China in December 2023." The Egyptian satellite lab is the latest development in China's secretive overseas space program. China has publicly announced many of its space aid plans in these African countries, including donations of satellites, space monitoring telescopes and ground stations. Reuters revealed for the first time facts that China has never spoken publicly about, namely that Beijing has access to the data and images collected by these technologies and that Chinese technicians have long been stationed at these Beijing-built facilities in Africa. The satellite factory is part of a series of space technologies donated by China to Egypt over the past two years. China has made public the transfer of technologies, including a new space monitoring center containing two of the world's most powerful telescopes and two Earth observation satellites one assembled in Egypt and the other made entirely in 🇨🇳. #China also launched for #Egypt a third Chinese-made satellite with #military-grade reconnaissance capabilities. The satellite factory is the centerpiece of #SpaceCity, located about 30 kilometers east of Cairo, near the new administrative capital under construction by the government of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah #ElSisi. Al-Sisi's government has forged closer ties with #Beijing in recent years, including through agreements on infrastructure and energy projects under Chinese President #XiJinping's #BRI. Egypt, a major recipient of #USmilitary aid, is not the only #African country that China has included in its space network. According to a report by the think tank #UnitedStates Institute of Peace, #Beijing has engaged in space cooperation with 23 African countries, including funding satellites and ground stations to collect satellite imagery and data. Over the past year, Egypt, #SouthAfrica and #Senegal have agreed to collaborate with China on the construction of a future lunar base. China's plan competes with the U.S. moon landing program.
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RT @ExtremaRatio4: OSINT: a revolutionary change driven by publicly accessible data or an evolution of traditional intelligence practices?…
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RT @ExtremaRatio4: By the end of 2024, 11,300 Chinese companies and individual entrepreneurs were operating in Russia, a 41% increase over…
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OSINT: a revolutionary change driven by publicly accessible data or an evolution of traditional intelligence practices? by Xavier Cardenas Conio An analysis published by Cambridge University, titled “The Rise of Open Source Intelligence,”* challenges the perception of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) as a revolutionary change driven by the explosion of publicly accessible data. Instead, the paper argues that the rise of OSINT reflects an evolution of traditional intelligence practices: the collection, processing, analysis and dissemination of large amounts of information. While the exponential growth of open–source data is reshaping the intelligence landscape, it is neither revolutionizing nor democratizing intelligence. Rather, it is prompting both state and non–state actors to explore how best to integrate OSINT practices and enhance digital literacy within their communities. Core OSINT challenges – information overload, reliability, and legal and ethical concerns – remain consistent with broader intelligence issues. Addressing these challenges provides a foundation for consolidating OSINT as a community of practice, and linking it to debates on the disputed role of security expertise in the public debate. #OSINT #HUMINT #Intelligence #ExtremaRatio Read more at Photo GettyImages
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By the end of 2024, 11,300 Chinese companies and individual entrepreneurs were operating in Russia, a 41% increase over the year. This information comes from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. The growth is driven by rising trade between Russia and China, along with strong demand for Chinese products amid a shortage of Western goods. China has led in the number of registered foreign businesses in Russia since 2022. Between 2023 and 2024, the number of Chinese companies in Russia surged by 50%, with around 330 new businesses registered monthly. In comparison, 145–150 Belarusian, 40–45 Kyrgyz, and 30–35 Turkish entities are registered monthly. Popular sectors for Chinese businesses in Russia include online retail, automobiles, and auto parts sales. A key trend is the shift from wholesale trade to direct consumer sales, reducing the role of Russian intermediaries. The share of Chinese companies engaged in wholesale trade declined from 21% in 2023 to 18% in 2024. The rising share of Chinese businesses reflects the redistribution of foreign presence in the Russian market following Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. However, China is not investing in Russian manufacturing but expanding market dominance with its products, further undermining Russian producers who struggle to compete in both quality and quantity.
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With the threat of a future conflict with China over Taiwan’s sovereignty looming on the horizon, the Navy has kicked its USV ambitions into high gear. As part of the Pentagon’s ongoing Replicator initiative launched in 2023 to quickly field both low-cost unmanned systems to US troops abroad ahead of the next big war with a “near-peer” adversary like Russia or China, the Navy has pursued the rapid production of swarms of small, networked USV “interceptors.”
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On Feb. 3, Panama announced its plans to leave China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino announced his decision following a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during Rubio’s first official visit as secretary. Secretary Rubio’s visit to Latin America is set to advance U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, discuss U.S. concerns about the Panama Canal, Trump’s immigration policy and plans to counter China and deepen economic partnerships in the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping established BRI to increase China’s economic growth, spread its influence globally and fund infrastructure projects in countries with natural resources of interest. While Panama officially joined the BRI in November 2017, Chinese access to the Panama Canal dates back to 1997 when Panama and Hong Kong signed a contract to operate two ports, Balboa and Cristobal. Panama’s membership in BRI and Chinese influence and operations in ports led President Trump and the U.S. Congress to question the neutrality of the Panama Canal and the nature of Panamanian ties to China. This also sparked President Trump’s interest to “take back” the Panama Canal. However, under the Panama Canal Treaties, Panama enjoys sole ownership of the canal, and reportedly President Mulino refused to discuss the canal during Secretary Rubio’s visit. Following Secretary Rubio’s visit, President Mulino said he is interested and willing to work with the Trump administration to increase U.S. investment and infrastructure projects in Panama and cooperate on President Trump’s immigration policy. The Trump administration’s “America First” foreign policy prioritizes deal-making to advance policy interests, and Secretary Rubio’s visit highlights the effectiveness of the strategy. Panama’s decision also provides multiple opportunities for U.S. companies to invest in Panama and help diversify the country’s economy and canal revenues. If Panama terminates the contract with Hutchinson Ports, it also provides an opportunity for a new manager of the Balboa and Cristobal ports. "We expect Secretary Rubio’s visit and Panama’s subsequent decision to reduce ties with China to create similar opportunities for U.S.-Panama relations, specifically to support supply chains, critical mineral extraction and other activities related to the Panama Canal. Moreover, the success of his visit portends that future engagements will follow a similar approach with other countries and partners." #ChinaNexus #ExtremaRatio #China #USA #Trump #PanamaCanal Read more at Photo GettyImages
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#NatureIndex 2025 ranking: #China is once again clearly in the lead. #Top10: 1. Chinese Academy of Sciences 2. Harvard University 3. China University of Science and Technology 4. Zhejiang University 5. Peking University 6. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 7. Max Planck Institute 8. Tsinghua University 9. Nanjing University 10. Jiaotong University
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#China's strategic ambition for large aircraft should not be underestimated. The C919 is a commercial aircraft developed by 🇨🇳. Its manufacturer is #COMAC and its goal is to challenge established Western #aircraft manufacturers. COMAC has proven it can compete with its competitors on short- and medium-haul routes, said Michael Santo of the 🇩🇪 consulting firm H&Z, which has been closely following the #aviationmarket for years. 🇨🇳 is an ideal market to test the C919's daily operations, given its huge size. 🇨🇳 demand for single-aisle passenger aircraft is expected to reach nearly 6,700 by 2043. It should be no problem for COMAC to find enough buyers in the country. This is also reflected in COMAC's ambitious plan to build the C929 wide-body aircraft, with up to 290 seats and a range of 12,000 kilometers, the report said. The plane is intended to compete with the #AirbusA350 and #Boeing787. Airbus and Boeing cannot rest on their laurels. Gerald Wiesel of the consulting firm Airborne believes that: "🇨🇳 medium- and short-haul jets will trigger price competition." Airlines' purchasing departments will use the C919 to lower prices in negotiations with #Boeing and #Airbus. On February 5, the 🇩🇪 website Handelsblatt published an article titled Three reasons why Airbus and Boeing should be afraid of China. The article tells how there have already been several attempts to break the duopoly in aircraft production. #Bombardier entered the short- and medium-range jet market, dominated by Airbus and Boeing, with the so-called C-Series, but risked failure due to high costs. Today the plane is manufactured by Airbus and its model is A220. #Sukhoi tried in the past to enter this market with the Sukhoi Superjet 100. But several accidents ruined the plane's image. In 2023 #Mitsubishi halted development of the SpaceJet regional jet. Now COMAC wants to try. Airbus and Boeing executives have stressed that they take 🇨🇳 competition very seriously. But they seem relatively relaxed about it, which is not surprising given the failures of other competitors so far. Instead, the article points out that it is extremely dangerous to underestimate COMAC. First, the project has the full support of the 🇨🇳 government. Although Boeing and Airbus have received government funding for new aircraft development, and Mitsubishi has also received government support, the 🇨🇳 government has outlasted its competitors. When an industry is declared to be of strategic importance, the 🇨🇳 government's insistence is always impressive. Second, the 🇨🇳 government is promoting large-scale strategic industrial projects. It not only supports companies directly involved in the industry, but also protects the entire ecosystem. A good example is the automotive industry. Third, 🇨🇳 is no longer just copying Western technology. Work is underway to replace Western components with local ones. There should be no doubt that 🇨🇳 has this capability. #ChinaNexus JOSE PAREJO & ASSOCIATES
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#China: 10 departments, including the legal bureau of the #CentralMilitaryCommission chaired by #XiJinping, have jointly issued the "Measures for the Dissemination of #MilitaryInformation on the #Internet" to take effect on March 1, 2025. Great care must be taken, especially the recommendation is aimed at foreigners living or working in China, including executives and CEOs of foreign companies. Remember the case of #AstellasPharmaceuticals and others in 2023? These new provisions, together with the harsh and vague provisions on #espionage and #counterespionage make the regulatory situation "not in accordance" with the rule of law, #internationallaw, and most of all dangerous because justice answers only to the #CCP, as is the case in totalitarian regimes (#Nazism). The Measures consist of 5 chapters and 30 articles, focusing on the regulation of activities related to the dissemination of military information on the Internet, the establishment of military website platforms, military articles on military website platforms and military accounts, and the supervision and management of the dissemination of military information on the Internet. In the next phase, the relevant local military and functional departments will strengthen coordination and cooperation to ascertain and punish illegal conduct. Among other things, the main purpose is to govern false military information on the Internet and prevent the leaking of military secrets. Specifically, Article 5 stipulates that Internet military information service providers who provide Internet information services, Internet journalistic information services, and Internet audiovisual program services through the creation of military Web site platforms, military columns on Web site platforms, military accounts, etc, shall comply with the provisions of the Internet Information Services Management Measures, Internet Journalism Information Services Management Regulations and Internet Audiovisual Program Services Management Regulations and apply for relevant licenses for Internet Information Services or perform relevant registration procedures in accordance with the law. Article 6 requires Internet-based military information service providers to establish editorial agencies responsible for military information services and staff them with full-time editors and reviewers in numbers commensurate with the scale of services. Article 7 requires the identity of anyone who opens n accounts on talu sites to be identified. Article 8 provides for the provision of certificates to accounts that will be verified in advance, identifying the holders, including the IP addresses they use. Providers and users of military information services on the Internet are not allowed to produce, copy, publish or disseminate information. This mainly includes endangering national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, defaming the Party's absolute leadership over the military and the responsibility system of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, the dissemination of erroneous political views such as the "depoliticization and demobilization of the army" and the "nationalization of the army," as well as the distortion, defamation, tampering, blasphemy and denial of the history of the People's Army, the deeds and spirit of heroes and martyrs and other illegal and negative information. It is also prohibited to produce, copy, publish or disseminate information involving military secrets. It mainly includes information containing military secrets, industrial secrets of national defense science and technology, or undisclosed information. At the same time, it specifies and clarifies the content of confidential information and the risks of military secret leakage that may be caused by the aggregation and correlation of data. It is a system typical of the most dangerous totalitarianisms that history has already made us familiar with. #ExtremaRatio
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We are preparing a report in which we will show why the drug war is just one part of China's Liminal Warfare, an incremental, multifaceted, horizontal, below-military warfare that has been weakening Western economies for at least 20 years. We are not inventing anything. It is all written in the PLA documents. #ChinaNexus
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@JJCarafano And such a weakened Russia is leaving huge spaces in Central Asia for China. Who better not make a peace deal?
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The year 2025 will be the beginning of commercial mass production of #humanoid robots in China. According to the main recommendations released by the Ministry of Industry and Informatization of the PRC, by 2025 the primary innovative system for humanoid robots will be formed in the country, and by 2027 a reliable and safe system of production and supply chains will be established, and the corresponding products will be deeply integrated into the real sector of the economy. Chinese enterprises, including #Huawei, #Byd, #Xiaomi, and #Xpeng, have joined humanoid robot production, while their major manufacturers, such as #Agibot, #UnitreeRobotics, #LejuRobot, and #UBTech Robotics, increase deliveries. According to CITIC headlines, by 2024 the global supply volume of humanoid robots will exceed 2,000 units. Currently, the total order volume for major manufacturers has exceeded 10,000 units. It is expected that in 2025, the world supply volume of humanoid robots will reach 10,000-20,000 units. According to forecasts, in 2025 the production of humanoid robots will begin to bring real profits after the stage of the influx of thematic investment in this field. #ChinaNexus
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