Ethan Kerr
@EthanKerr2003
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Millersville ‘25 | I like weather, football | NJ | #FinsUp | #Knickerbockers | 🌪️ = 5
Bayville, NJ
Joined March 2021
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The past couple days have been pretty insane.
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Live look at America (or at least my Twitter feed) tonight:
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April 24-May 9, 2024 will go down as the most prolific tornado swarm America has seen since May 2019. 200+ tornadoes across 20+ states. Absolute insanity.
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You could win a presidential election with how many states were hit by tornadoes this week.
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Since when did right-wing conspiracy theorists become degreed meteorologists? These people have a combined IQ of 12.
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Sadly, this is probably the most intense tropical cyclone tornado outbreak of the dual-pol era. Likely the worst since some of the big 2004-2005 producers. Tornado disaster unfolding.
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Never realized how absolutely massive the Texas Panhandle wildfires are until I looked at the burn scar on satellite.
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I’ve been cautious about the high-end outbreak potential today due to moisture concerns, but I must say, moisture is advecting QUICKLY into central Oklahoma. It’s outpacing the initialized model dew points. Dews on the NAM are a bit higher than the HRRR, and it paints more…
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🧵 An important concept in synoptic meteorology is jet streaks and what associated regions are favorable and unfavorable for storms. It has applications in severe weather and tornadoes, winter storms, and hurricanes. I’ve made some graphics to walk through these jet streak...
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There hasn't been much of note to talk about weather-wise in the country for the past week, so in the meantime I've made a step-by-step explainer on what "streamwise vorticity" is. Let's start off with a basic hodograph, which is a visualization of the wind speed/direction in...
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1992 was a historically quiet Atlantic hurricane season. 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, but it will be remembered for the vicious Category 5 Andrew. Yesterday was, by most measures, a poor tornado forecast verification (yes, a “bust”); however, it will be remembered for the…
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People often mention "backing" winds with regards to increasing tornado risks. Backing simply means that the wind vector turns counterclockwise. So, a south wind turns to a southeast wind. Conversely, a veering wind is one that turns clockwise. How does this translate to...
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The best example of this is looking at what the HMON showed for landfall. Notice sustained winds over the ocean of 120 kts (140 mph), which INSTANTLY drop to ~50 kts (60 mph) over land. This isn’t new stuff, people.
I don’t think people understand that we never get verification on wind at landfall.
Ian (155mph landfall) rocked verified gusts of only 109mph in Cape Coral, even (Allegedly) less at Sanibel Island
Why?
Maximum wind stops right at the beach, ground friction inland brings
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In all seriousness, does anyone know why the RRFS has been showing this supersonic, cross-country, mega-landspout tornado for the past several runs? Possibly the strangest model quirk I've ever seen.
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After a potent derecho last week, and since we're in the heart of summer MCS season, I wanted to make a thread about rear-inflow jets, how they form, and what makes them strong. It begins with normal thunderstorms tilted downshear due to strong upper-level winds. They have...
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NWS Omaha just put 5(!) EF3 tornadoes in the DAT. Doesn't look like any EF4 damage was found with these twisters.
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Here are soundings from 4 environments with some of the most photogenic tornadoes/supercells of the year. All occurred on 5% tor days or less and weren't a part of larger outbreaks. Notice any similarities?
1. Eldorado, OK
2. Silverton, TX
3. Whitman, NE
4. Mound City, SD
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I promise I’d never do it, but the urge to get out of the car and run into one of these if I came across one is intense.
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@AnthonyC_H
@ChasinSpin
@ReedTimmerAccu
@TwistedChasers
@ElbingProf
Here’s what I got if you could read my sloppy handwriting, assuming I didn’t make any math/conceptual mistakes. Obviously a lot of assumptions that go into this, but the end result seems fairly reasonable.
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1 year ago today saw the third most tornadoes of any day in recorded history. The prolific, violent, and deadly tornado outbreak had three main areas of tornado production. Let's analyze... 🧵
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I think one of the biggest things we can do to reduce tornado fatalities is normalizing telling people living in mobile homes/homes without a basement to evacuate to a neighbor/friend/relative’s house before a Tornado Watch is even issued.
Please take tomorrow seriously.
If you have relatives without a basement, invite them over for dinner, game night and perhaps a sleepover.
Look out for one another if you're in the risk area.
Schedule your afternoon/night to be able to access shelter at a moment's notice.
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The last snowstorm brought up a lot of discussion about "frontogenesis" and "deformation bands." I made some figures to walk you through these concepts without trying to take away any substance 🧵. We start with the equation for deformation. Then, I graph it with velocity...
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With this historically quiet peak hurricane season, what are the odds that at least one of these lemons in the Atlantic becomes a tropical cyclone? Well, based on my math and the 7-day NHC probabilities, about 64%. 🍋🧮🌀
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Personal Announcement:
I'm beyond excited to have accepted an REU at the National Weather Center at OU! I can't wait to spend this summer in Norman, meet new people, and work on cool research projects!
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This is a fascinating, yet sad, example of a supercell merging with a squall line. This triggered the formation of an intense tornado. Now that the bow echo took over, a parade of little tornadic circulations formed. Exceptional streamwise vorticity will get it done.
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The big limiting factor for tornadoes today is storm mode. The current storms are training, as motions are rather parallel to the dryline, keeping the tornado threat low. Extreme parameters should still promote a tornado outbreak, but things could go upscale quickly, and the…
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I think meteorologists should engrain these tornadogenesis cases into their minds. Beefy supercell on the leading edge of an impending squall. A developing appendage with convergence was a strong indicator of a future big-time tornado. This second supercell did a similar thing.
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Hurricane Lee has been battered by wind shear today. Here's a simplified explanation on why shear is detrimental for thunderstorms. A tropical cyclone operates with strong thunderstorms releasing latent heat via condensation. This increases the temperature of the entire...
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🧵I saw
@EdRussoWX
compare the upcoming tornado outbreak to the Andover 1991 outbreak. I did some deeper diving and I think it really is a fantastic analog. Starting aloft, a closed 500 mb low is located in NE WY. Both have a speed max over NM that will be nosing into OK after...
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🧵Yesterday was a busy day for severe weather, with tons of supercells producing large hail and deadly tornadoes. Here’s a thread listing all of the different storm modes and associated soundings yesterday with some analysis to compare the different environments…
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Today is an "all hazards" severe weather day in the Ozarks. In other words, enhanced risks for significant hail, tornadoes, and wind. Model soundings show how all those risks could come to fruition. First, discrete supercell hailers. Then, tornadoes. Last, nocturnal wind bag.
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One of my followers asked if I could explain soundings, so I've made a detailed thread that serves as a good crash couse for how to read and use Skew-T Log-P diagrams. This should be helpful for any meteorlogy enthusiasts, students, or professionals who need a refresher...
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I believe we just had a FIFTH Rhode Island tornado. It looks like RI only has 20 tornadoes on record, with at most five in a single DECADE. So, if we really did hit 5, this is the state record for a tornado outbreak, and one of the most anomalous tornado events I’ve seen.
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There's an absolute DONUT of a BWER on this supercell in SW Oklahoma - a sign of an intense updraft. Even more impressive in the cross-section.
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I believe we just had the strongest tornado with a path length of under 0.2 miles on record! Every other F3+ tornado less than that is from before 1985 and has a path length of exactly 0.1 miles, which I think is an issue with track documentation back in the day.
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@NWSLubbock
picture of giant hail from tornadic supercell retrieved from
@cyzzyxwx
and others north of Silverton. Probably should tag
@CameronJNixon
too.
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Convergence of met majors watching a surprise late evening thunderstorm
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These are just 4 radar images from today’s violent tornado outbreak. Amazingly, no fatalities have been reported. Don’t take for granted the work of meteorologists. Their hard work, between the NWS, SPC, broadcasters, chasers, and researchers, saved dozens of lives today.
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My first day at the National Weather Center REU was awesome! I’ve met some great fellow REU-ers, was introduced to fantastic lightning researchers in NSSL I’ll be working with (I’m doing a lightning project), and I got to observe/talk to mets in the Hazardous Weather Testbed!
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🧵After some discussion about these "long" tornado risk zones and their propensity to bust, I took a look into the 4/19/20 EF4 case and how that happened. A look at radar that evening quickly revealed the answer. A string of supercells formed along what appears to be a...
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🧵Here's a thread of every significant (EF2+) tornado event from February with radar, soundings, and analysis!
2/2 Sagerton, TX EF2: lee cyclogenesis induced a dryline with a forced squall line. A lone supercell ahead of the line produced with adequate low-level instability.
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…single storm that took full advantage of the environment and produced a deadly tornado in Barnsdall, Oklahoma. It will be important to study why yesterday’s high risk didn’t pan out like we thought it would, but how one storm was tragically able to do what the others couldn’t.
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Impressive wind shear for the supercell south of Nashville to work with. All it took was a clean storm mode to produce an intense tornado with possibly some help from a nudge from behind.
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The large shift in the upcoming snowstorm track over the last 24 hours is at least partially attributable to yesterday's busted tornado event. 🧵A 10# with virtually no tornadoes? Well, a large thunderstorm complex organized in LA and MS. Its outflow boundary reinforced the...
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We'll see if I eat my words on this later, but a forecasting rule-of-thumb of mine:
Looong (east-west oriented) tornado risks bust 9/10 times. It's always a disorganized mess. I could go on about why. Maybe a thread later. Today doesn't look any different.
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Kentucky tornado is launching debris over 35 THOUSAND feet high. That's pieces of trees and buildings making it to airplane cruising altitude. Likely an intense or violent tornado in progress.
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I was going through some photos from my May flight from Atlanta to OKC. I noticed in this picture a pretty stark tornado scar. Guess what tornado it’s from!
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🧵A radar image of every tropical cyclone since 2020 to produce >5 tornadoes in the US. Notice any similarities?
1. Cristobal (2020)
2. Isaias (2020)
3. Laura (2020)
4. Sally (2020)
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We simulated lee cyclogenesis and demonstrated potential vorticity with a spinning pool of water, a pipe, and some food coloring in Dynamics today. Look at the vorticies on the lee side of the “mountain!”
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🧵There's a sense among many that these enhanced-level tornado events have uniquely poor verification. I think I have a different take. Below is every SPC 10# verification this year. 4/7 events verified with a tornado outbreak, while 3 busted with 0 or 1...
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@MacheteMoonlig1
Yes: The National Weather Service meteorologists have done a spectacular job giving advanced warnings for all of these destructive tornadoes over the past 2 weeks.
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Two observed soundings from the right-front quadrant of tropical cyclones. The first is from Beryl and was associated with a massive TC tornado outbreak. The second is from Debby this morning, which produced several, mostly non-tornadic supercells. Notice any differences?
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…discrete cells. Our current dew point in Norman is 60, about an hour ahead of schedule vs the NAM and two hours vs the HRRR. This is a good reminder that while there are failure modes, today is still an extremely volatile environment with intense+ tornado potential.
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After days of surveying from the NWS, a whopping 85 tornadoes have been confirmed from the 4/1-4/3 tornado outbreak. Interestingly, almost half came from the morning derecho (including 9/14 EF2s), which wasn't the storm mode forecast to be the most prolific for tornadoes.
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Of course our one mandatory school AMS meeting of the year is the same day as the highest tornado risk we’ll ever get this close to Pennsylvania.
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One of the more notable tornadoes from today's outbreak was this one in West Virginia with a discrete supercell. Based on photos, I suspect the tornado may have been an EF2. If that's the case, it occurred in an area (red X) where significant tornadoes are VERY rare. However...
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Starting to get into some of my research at the NWC. Can’t wait to see what I find!
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See those ripples on the cloud tops of Hurricane Jova? Those are gravity waves from the violent eyewall thunderstorms bombarding the stratosphere. The air can’t keep rising, so it ripples outwards. Alexander et al. (2021) found that these are a strong sign of rapid…
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Hot take: I like clouds and spinny things and frozen stuff that fall from the sky, but these celestial events are way cooler, and it’s not even close.
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Less than 30 minutes after witnessing nature’s most spectacular display with hundreds of other exhilarated onlookers, we witnessed the product of its worst devastation. We drove straight through the wreckage of the 3/14 Lakeview, OH EF3 tornado after the eclipse. Pretty sobering.
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I don’t get political often, but being a big history guy, the rank Nazi apologia being endorsed by mainstream right-wingers here is disturbing. Not to mention bashing the Civil Rights Movement, positively comparing Putin and Trump, suggesting executing European politicians, etc.
Darryl Cooper may be the best and most honest popular historian in the United States. His latest project is the most forbidden of all: trying to understand World War Two.
(1:20) History of the Israel-Palestine Conflict
(12:39) The Jonestown Cult
(32:10) World War Two
(45:04) How
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Today’s Illinois tornado showed how important storm-scale interactions are in marginally favorable tornado environments. Mini supercells fired along a stationary boundary. As storms moved to the northeast, they weren’t effectively ingesting the streamwise vorticity. However…
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4 years ago today, Hurricane Dorian was scraping the Carolina coastline. Heavy rainfall was the primary impact, though Dorain also produced a notable outbreak of 27 tornadoes, which prompted the SPC to issue a rare 15% tornado risk. The first radar image is a potent EF1, while...
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🧵Today's severe weather threat doesn't favor tornadic supercells, but I do think the risk of a QLCS tornado outbreak, with some strong tornadoes, is real. The warm sector is pretty limited, with 500-1500 CAPE. This probably won't allow time for supercells to develop. However...
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Today we watched a meteorologist with NWS Norman launch a special weather balloon for the severe storms today. We also got a tour of the NWC, seeing the DOW trucks and the SPC!
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Hurricane Otis has shockingly went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in less than 12 hours. It's making a run at Category 5 before Mexico landfall in the next 12 hours. This would be the strongest landfall EVER in the Eastern Pacific. How? Well, it's over 30...
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The Midwest tornado outbreak sort of didn't pan out, with a few strong, damaging tornadoes early in IN, but nothing after about an hour of fast activity. Why? a low-level jet provided ample shear, with plenty of streamwise vorticity. Storm motions, as indicated by the mean...
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Today was my final morning working with
@ChristineWGAL
and
@TJSpringerWX
at
@WGAL
. The past five weeks have been a blast with them, and I’ve really enjoyed helping out with the graphics each morning. I’m also grateful for the guidance and help with my first weather recordings.
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Aurora pillars faintly visible to the naked eye from Bayville, NJ!
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In light of recent severe weather events, check out the website I made for my Radar Final Project. It’s on the April 19th, 2023 Oklahoma tornado outbreak!
Here’s some images from the site. I talk about deviant tornado motion, storm mergers, and more!
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Nice side-by-side comparison of fake, and likely real, tornado signatures with a tornado warning in Florida with Debby. The first has a meso and CC drop in the clear inflow-notch. The second has a couplet and TDS in the hook. It’s easy to get attached to the stronger meso on…
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I was lucky enough to go chasing with friends from Millersville today. We caught the tornadic supercell near Tappahannock, Virginia, along with other mini-supercells. We saw all sorts of cool cloud structures, plus I was under my first tornado warnings!
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Personal announcement: I’ve been pretty quiet on Twitter lately, but after finals last week I’ve begun an internship at WGAL in Lancaster! Will be living at Millersville for the next ~2 months. So far it’s been great!
@EthanWGAL
@JoeCalhounWGAL
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It’s kinda neat to actually see one of the graphics I made on the tv
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Twisters was an unbelievable movie, though I’m pretty biased. What was even better than the movie was getting to watch it with friends and dozens of renowned meteorologists, many of whom helped with the movie. Also, I need to stop standing at attention in pictures 😂
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KCCX will be out for a few minutes. Cause: Millersville students doing shenanigans.
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Possibly intense, long-tracked tornado with a rogue supercell in North Carolina. The Virginia Beach VWP certainly doesn’t scream tornado, but a remnant MCV has locally enhanced shear parameters…
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Often times, tornado outbreaks don't behave as planned. On Nov. 29 of last year, an outbreak of several long-track, intense tornadoes was anticipated. However, a smaller outbreak of short-track tornadoes occurred. A 23z Jackson sounding shows more than enough shear in the...
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4 nickels
If I had a nickel for every time a strong aurora in Central Pennsylvania was ruined by clouds in the last 2 years, I’d have 3 nickels, which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened 3 times.
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If you're wondering why there's a bunch of grumpy Millersville meteorology students whining about a verified snow event, it's because we haven't had a 5+ inch snowfall in over 3 years and this just happened:
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If the Hawley tornado winds up getting rated EF4, it would be a violent tornado that was NOT in a Tornado Watch. Rare, but it does happen with freak storms. Last time I believe was the Ashby, MN EF4 in 2020.
Quote per CBS news regarding the May 2nd, 2024, Hawley, Texas tornado:
"The National Weather Service believes it was likely a strong EF3 or a weak EF4"
More info here, also recommend reading the rest of the article too:
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A thread on yesterday's Great Lakes tornado outbreak, which produced multiple strong tornadoes:
The tiniest of shortwaves riding the ridge was the trigger. In hindsight, it's no surprise there were a lot of tornadoes. While weak mid-level shear and strong cold pools don't...
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10 years ago a violent tornado outbreak impacted the midwest. This RAP sounding is preceding the Washington, IL EF4. Several factors on the sounding indicate high-end tornado potential...
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I'm late but I made a radar loop of New Jersey's bizzare EF2 tornado from a year ago today. Take a look at the sounding and it's even more bizzare. 53-41 with low CAPE and straight hodographs. It looks like a couple storm mergers in the forward and rear flanks served it well.
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🚨 If you're at the National Weather Center, set your alarms early and come see my REU presentation next week!
📌 NWC 1313
⏰ Wed, July 24th, 8:45-9:00 AM
⚡️🌪️⚡️
Also, stick around to see some of the great projects my friends with the REU, Hollings, and AI2ES have worked hard on!
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I’m pretty surprised Helene has yet to rapidly intensify; I thought it would by now. SFMR and dropsondes indicating even Cat 2 winds are struggling to reach the surface. Dry air again? Regardless, even if it does come in “weaker,” 100-115+ mph wind gusts will be nothing to…
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One of the most anticipated
@MUweather
discussions in years as it looks increasingly likely Millersville gets some heavy snow tomorrow morning.
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It's near impossible to achieve tornadogenesis on a QLCS when the line is oriented nearly parallel to the low-level shear. It could happen with a more semi-discrete mode, as we've seen this morning, but that'll be tougher to achieve with this configuration. Another reason why...
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Some awesome lightning footage from Millersville University tonight. More to come.
@millersvilleu
@weatherchannel
@spann
@ReedTimmerAccu
@JimCantore
@NWSStateCollege
@accuweather
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@_MLFootball
At least Eric can look down on Earth knowing that he still lives rent-free in Chris Simms head.
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This anticyclonic tornado probably has the most impressive anticyclonic mesocyclone I've ever seen. This is at an 8 degree tilt!
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The remnant core of Helene has made it to **checks notes** Ohio and is still doing widespread wind damage. Just an unbelievable storm. Arguably the worst in terms of scope since Sandy.
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Today was a wildly productive and awesome day at
#AMS2024
. I sat in on research presentations by degreed atmospheric scientists and fellow students, listened to talks by the director of the
@NWS
and
@NWSSPC
, spoke with the director of the
@NHC_Atlantic
, networked with…
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Nice use of downstream
#Tornadowarnings
by NWS to give people plenty of lead time, potentially over an hour. Certainly justified with this long-track
#tornado
.
#kywx
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Today’s my first day of Senior year, so I’m celebrating the unbelievable summer I had. I had the privilege of meeting so many new people and making great friends in Oklahoma, did a cool research project, and saw tornadoes! Come see my project about lightning and tornadoes at AMS!
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